B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

833,893 Views | 5667 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by FlyRod
KidDoc
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agrab86 said:

Active case rate now down to 0.37%, or 867 current active case. How low is low enough??
Great question!

It seems like the state health department has put the most weight on percentage of positive tests. I have no idea why they focus on that you are going to have a higher percentage of positives with contact tracing automatically.

IMO decisions should be made on infection percents and hospital capacity. Both are looking really good now.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
EBrazosAg
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Agreed ... 4 numbers matter most:
7 day average of new cases - a reasonable measure of current infection "burden" in community.
Hospitalizations with Wuhan
ICU patients with Wuhan
Deaths from Wuhan.

Everything else is a distraction, more or less.
isitjustme
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KidDoc said:

agrab86 said:

Active case rate now down to 0.37%, or 867 current active case. How low is low enough??
Great question!

It seems like the state health department has put the most weight on percentage of positive tests. I have no idea why they focus on that you are going to have a higher percentage of positives with contact tracing automatically.

IMO decisions should be made on infection percents and hospital capacity. Both are looking really good now.
What do you think doctors think as a group? I realize it's probably a large range of thoughts, and political views will likely color the results if asked in public. But if a confidential vote was taken of all doctors in Texas, what do you think the results would be regarding mask mandate/other mandates/shutdown thresholds so that some objectivity can be introduced to the process? What metrics are most important besides the IMO ones you list.

These measurements could include attack rate in an area, positive rate or tests, mortality rate by cases, death rate in an area, hospital capacity rate in an area, active case rate in an area, etc. And if rates are used, the same thresholds could be applied to each county. 25 active cases in Limestone county vs Brazos county vs Harris county are all very different, yet masks are required if any of the 3 have these number of active cases.

ETA I would like to see us get away from numbers and rely more on rates as different areas have vastly different populations and hospital resources.
KidDoc
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agrab86 said:

KidDoc said:

agrab86 said:

Active case rate now down to 0.37%, or 867 current active case. How low is low enough??
Great question!

It seems like the state health department has put the most weight on percentage of positive tests. I have no idea why they focus on that you are going to have a higher percentage of positives with contact tracing automatically.

IMO decisions should be made on infection percents and hospital capacity. Both are looking really good now.
What do you think doctors think as a group? I realize it's probably a large range of thoughts, and political views will likely color the results if asked in public. But if a confidential vote was taken of all doctors in Texas, what do you think the results would be regarding mask mandate/other mandates/shutdown thresholds so that some objectivity can be introduced to the process? What metrics are most important besides the IMO ones you list.

These measurements could include attack rate in an area, positive rate or tests, mortality rate by cases, death rate in an area, hospital capacity rate in an area, active case rate in an area, etc. And if rates are used, the same thresholds could be applied to each county. 25 active cases in Limestone county vs Brazos county vs Harris county are all very different, yet masks are required if any of the 3 have these number of active cases.
At this point I think most doctors think the response is overblown for the general public but it would be an interesting survey.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
isitjustme
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KidDoc said:

agrab86 said:

KidDoc said:

agrab86 said:

Active case rate now down to 0.37%, or 867 current active case. How low is low enough??
Great question!

It seems like the state health department has put the most weight on percentage of positive tests. I have no idea why they focus on that you are going to have a higher percentage of positives with contact tracing automatically.

IMO decisions should be made on infection percents and hospital capacity. Both are looking really good now.
What do you think doctors think as a group? I realize it's probably a large range of thoughts, and political views will likely color the results if asked in public. But if a confidential vote was taken of all doctors in Texas, what do you think the results would be regarding mask mandate/other mandates/shutdown thresholds so that some objectivity can be introduced to the process? What metrics are most important besides the IMO ones you list.

These measurements could include attack rate in an area, positive rate or tests, mortality rate by cases, death rate in an area, hospital capacity rate in an area, active case rate in an area, etc. And if rates are used, the same thresholds could be applied to each county. 25 active cases in Limestone county vs Brazos county vs Harris county are all very different, yet masks are required if any of the 3 have these number of active cases.
At this point I think most doctors think the response is overblown for the general public but it would be an interesting survey.
I agree - my GP thinks so as well. I'm just trying to get a bead on what measurements would be best so as to put the imposition of countermeasures by policy makers on a more objective basis. And I thing rates would be the best way to go as each county/region is different.
Bunk Moreland
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my doctor as well. Just gave me the half smile 'what are you gonna do' shrug.
Belton Ag
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Yeah my dad, who's going through chemo and is pretty vulnerable, asked his doc about it. Doc basically said don't put yourself at risk unnecessarily, but you have to hug your grandkids and family and can't hide from this forever.
EBrazosAg
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As a non TexAg labeled doc, I agree w KidDoc.
oklaunion
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Ask the doctors down in Hidalgo county. Don't think it can't (I didn't say won't) be that way here by the first of October.
isitjustme
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oklaunion said:

Ask the doctors down in Hidalgo county. Don't think it can't (I didn't say won't) be that way here by the first of October.
I will say it: That won't happen here. Hidalgo county is getting lots of cases from the other side of the border. We do not have that dynamic here. Our cases WILL increase b/c 40-60,000 aggies will be back in town. The vast majority of those cases will not require any medical services.
Rapier108
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First it was the prediction that we were going to be Harris County.

Now it is we're going to be Hildago County.

We are not going to become them either so please stop with this.

This thread is for discussing the local numbers, not talking about other counties, making predictions of when Brazos County will meet its corona-demise.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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I like Mike Rowe and what he wrote yesterday...


https://www.facebook.com/116999698310182/posts/3445993122077473/?d=n

Mike. In a recent post, you said you've been to Tennessee and Georgia, giving speeches and filming for your new show. Before that, you were on the road shooting for Dirty Jobs. Is it really so important to film a television show in the midst of pandemic? Is it responsible of you to encourage this kind of behavior when infection rates are spiking? Don't you watch the news? More and more cases every day aren't you concerned?

Darlene Gabon

Hi Darlene

Of course, I'm concerned. I'm just not petrified.

On March 15th, the day after my part of the country was locked down, I posted a link to an interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm. I'm posting it again, because I believe you and everyone else in the country would benefit from listening carefully to what he has to say. https://bit.ly/2WLOM6o

Dr. Osterholm is the Director of Infectious Disease Research and Policy. This is the same epidemiologist who ten years ago, predicted a coronavirus would come from China and turn our country upside down. In his book "Deadliest Enemies," he anticipated the utterly irresponsible way in which the media would report on the situation, the completely opportunistic and shamelessly political way our leaders would likely react, and the unprecedented chaos and confusion that would arise from all the mixed messages from the medical community. His resume is unexampled, https://bit.ly/3jvzQTW, and his analysis of the situation is the most logical and persuasive of any I'd heard so far. He's also the only expert I know of who hasn't walked back his numbers, reconsidered his position, or moved the goalposts with regard to what we must do, what we can do, and what he expects to happen next. I say all of this because Dr. Osterholm publicly predicted - in early MArch - that we could conservatively see over 100 million COVID cases in this country, with a very strong possibility of 480,000 fatalities even if we successfully "flattened the curve."

It took me a few weeks to accept this scenario, because 480,000 fatalities is a frightening number, and lot of other experts were saying lots of conflicting things. But eventually, I came to the conclusion that Dr. Osterholm was probably correct, and quickly navigated the four stages of grief that usually precede acceptance denial, anger, bargaining, and depression. By late April, I had come to accept Dr. Osterholm's predictions as a matter of fact. Since then, I've had three full months to come to terms with the fact that, a) I am probably going to get COVID-19 at some point, b), I am almost certainly going to survive it, and c), I might very well give it to someone else.

I hope that doesn't sound blas, or glib, or fatalistic, or selfish. Four-hundred eighty thousand deaths is an obvious tragedy, and I'm deeply sympathetic to all who have been impacted thus far. I'm also very concerned for my parents, and everyone else in a high risk category. But when Dr. Osterholm says that COVID can be slowed but not stopped, I believe him. When he says a vaccine will not necessarily hasten herd immunity, I believe him. And when he says that people have confused "flattening the curve" with "eliminating the virus," I believe him.

Thus, for the last three months, I've been operating from the assumption that this is a year-round virus that's eventually going to infect 100 million people and kill roughly 1/2 of one percent of those infected, conservatively. I've accepted those numbers. Unfortunately, millions of others have not. Many people have no sense of where this is headed, and I understand why. They've been betrayed by a hysterical media that insists on covering each new reported case as if it were the first case. Every headline today drips with dread, as the next doomed hotspot approaches the next "grim milestone." And so, for a lot of people, everyday is Groundhogs Day. They're paralyzed by the rising numbers because the numbers have no context. They don't know where it will end. But Dr. Osterholm says he does, and I'm persuaded that he's correct. He might be wrong, and frankly, I hope he is, but either way, he's presented us with a set of projections based on a logical analysis, and accepting those projections has allowed me to move past denial, anger, bargaining, and depression, and get on with my life with a better understanding of what the risks really are.

Fact is, we the people can accept almost anything if we're given the facts, and enough time to get evaluate the risk and make our own decisions. Last year in this country, there were six million traffic accidents and 36,000 fatalities. Tragic, for sure. But imagine for a moment if no one had ever died from a car accident. Imagine if this year, America endured six million traffic accidents and 36,000 fatalities...for the first time ever. Now, imagine if these accidents and fatalities - over 16,000 and 90 per day respectively - imagine if they were reported upon like every new incidence of COVID. What would that do to our willingness to drive? For a while, I suspect it would keep us all off the roads, right? I mean, six million accidents out of the blue is a lot to process, and 36,000 deaths is scary especially if you don't know how high that number could get. It would take us a while to access the risk, before we blindly hopped into our cars again. Eventually though - after getting some context and perspective - we'd be able to evaluate the relative danger of operating a motor vehicle. Then, we could decide for ourselves when to drive, where to drive, and how much to drive. And so we do.

Again, don't misunderstand. I'm not ignoring COVID, or downplaying COVID, or pretending the risks at hand aren't real. Nor am I comparing COVID cases to car accidents - I'm simply comparing the fear of each to the other, and the fear that always accompanies uncertainty. I don't want to get this disease or give it to someone else, any more than I want to be in a car car wreck that injures someone else. But I've accepted certain things about the pandemic, and now, I've gotten used to the risk as I understand it. I take precautions. I get tested as often as I can, and if I can't physically distance, I wear a mask especially around higher risk people. Likewise, I wear a seatbelt, obey the speed limits, and check my mirrors before changing lanes. Yes - I'm aware that we'd all be a lot safer if we kept our cars in the garage. I'm also aware we'd be a lot safer if we all kept ourselves in the house. But that's not why cars, or people, exist.

Anyway Darlene, that's a long way of saying that I have accepted Dr. Osterholm's numbers, and now, after three months of acceptance, I've made a decision on how I wish to live my life. Sooner or later, you will too. We all will.

Mike

PS. My foundation is selling masks to raise money for our next work-ethic scholarship program. They're going fast...

https://www.bfit540.com/products/mike-rowe-works-face-mask
FlyRod
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65 new cases today, 17 in hospitals (which seems like a pretty big drop).
FlyRod
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Quote:

I will say it: That won't happen here. Hidalgo county is getting lots of cases from the other side of the border. We do not have that dynamic here. Our cases WILL increase b/c 40-60,000 aggies will be back in town. The vast majority of those cases will not require any medical services.


Agreed. The "known unknown" will be how many higher risk folksstore employees, teachers/faculty, etc. will catch it from them. Obviously we have a lot more mitigation techniques in businesses and schools. We'll likely know pretty quickly if they work, and whether the kids are compliant with them.
isitjustme
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734 active cases in Brazos county, or 0.31% of the population. Just sayin.
Rapier108
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64 New Cases
0 New Deaths
220 Reported Tests
Continued drop in hospitalized cases and hospital occupancy

77801 + 4
77802 + 7
77803 + 15
77807 + 7
77808 + 6
77840 + 9
77845 + 16

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.24.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Oogway
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This is good news. Trending downward.
trouble
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3 discharges

197 recovered (now under 800 active cases)

17 Brazos Co patients, 64 regional

Brazos Co hospitals

Total Bed Occupancy: 73%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 69%

Regional stats

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 556
Available Hospital Beds - 154
Available ICU Beds - 2
Available Ventilators - 43
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
Belton Ag
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Wondering if this is the beginnings of the spike I expected to see when TAMU starts its free testing. Could be way too early for that.
trouble
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I think this is likely from the free drive thru testing event a couple weeks ago.
Belton Ag
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trouble said:

I think this is likely from the free drive thru testing event a couple weeks ago.


Ah yeah, I forgot about that. Quite a few people in line for that now that I recall reading about it.
LSCSN
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We got it good in Brazos County. So good they're sending folks from other counties here for care. Great to see.
FlyRod
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Quote:

Wondering if this is the beginnings of the spike I expected to see when TAMU starts its free testing. Could be way too early for that.


Not sure when move-in week is, but if there is a student driven spike, we'll likely start to see it first week of classes, or second given the typical incubation timeline.
Bunk Moreland
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42/64 under the age of 40. No new cases aged 70+
cavscout96
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Move in begins around 11 Aug
nthomas99
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Health District presser. Don't worry, our elected leaders have completely abdicated the decision about opening schools to Dr. Sullivan, who is just letting us know he hasn't decided yet.
Ukraine Gas Expert
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Seriously? ...let me guess, two weeks?

The Brazos Kid
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nthomas99 said:

Health District presser. Don't worry, our elected leaders have completely abdicated the decision about opening schools to Dr. Sullivan, who is just letting us know he hasn't decided yet.


Yup. Don't want any collateral damage on your record...
Oogway
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cavscout96 mentioned August 11, but some of the apartment complexes are staggering move-in as well. I know of some that are beginning August 1 and then spacing the next move-in one to two weeks out until the start of A&M on the 19th or whatever date it is.
txgardengirl
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Leases start Aug 1 for a ton of off campus students - quite a few are moving in now.
EBrazosAg
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TxFoundry said:

nthomas99 said:

Health District presser. Don't worry, our elected leaders have completely abdicated the decision about opening schools to Dr. Sullivan, who is just letting us know he hasn't decided yet.


Yup. Don't want any collateral damage on your record...


Apparently - the TEA Commissioner (unelected) had communicated to the school districts that only the Local Health Authority (unelected) has authority to delay or change school. Not county judge or anyone else. Will be interesting to watch in the counties where other orders are in place. Interesting to watch here as well. I wouldn't want to be Sullivan and issue that order if delegated to me. I certainly wouldn't want to be a school board member that acquiesced to a unelected official (local health authority ) based on the opinion of a unelected state employee ( TEA commissioner).
Belton Ag
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We cannot cede our public policymaking responsibilities to unelected health officials. Period. They should inform policy and help shape policy - they should never be ignored - but they should not be in this position.

Another disgusting failure on the part of our political class.

On principle alone I will not vote for any incumbent official this November. They. Do. Not. Deserve. Our. Vote.
AggieBaseball06
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Belton Ag said:

We cannot cede our public policymaking responsibilities to unelected health officials. Period. They should inform policy and help shape policy - they should never be ignored - but they should not be in this position.

Another disgusting failure on the part of our political class.

On principle alone I will not vote for any incumbent official this November. They. Do. Not. Deserve. Our. Vote.
I'm pretty sure when I was a junior in high school, I heard Dennis Maloney speak as a city councilman. I am in my mid-30s now. It's time for him and his merry band of dingbats to move on...
cavscout96
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Belton Ag said:

We cannot cede our public policymaking responsibilities to unelected health officials. Period. They should inform policy and help shape policy - they should never be ignored - but they should not be in this position.

Another disgusting failure on the part of our political class.

On principle alone I will not vote for any incumbent official this November. They. Do. Not. Deserve. Our. Vote.


Preach!
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