B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

609,234 Views | 4442 Replies | Last: 17 hrs ago by MiMi
ToxicAG
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Yes, but all the students had left.
trouble
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AG
I had it before. Let me see if I can track it down.
Rapier108
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trouble said:

ToxicAG said:

trouble said:

Except those hospitals could cancel elective surgeries on their own. We did it often for lack of beds, staffing limits, low blood supplies, etc.

I'm not super worried about students overwhelming our hospitals since the vast majority of young adults don't need to be hospitalized.


If it gets to the point that BCS hospitals are cancelling elective surgeries so A&M can have in person classes, then we have a problem.

I'm not as concerned about students, though there will be a few just on numbers that require admission. However, I do anticipate an increase in the local population including faculty and staff.


If we get to the point of cancelling elective surgeries, we should definitely reconsider in person classes of all kinds.

I don't think we'll be in a situation where we have to cancel them in order to have space to have in person classes.
The problem is our local leaders or hospital officials won't get to make the decision.

Abbott will do it on his own without any consultation.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
EBrazosAg
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AG
Very few "elective" surgeries go to the ICU. Likely far below 5% in my experience. In >20 years I've seen elective surgeries canceled less than 10 days in that time. Usually mid winter for one day during H1N1 or another bad flu season.
ToxicAG
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Rapier108 said:

trouble said:

ToxicAG said:

trouble said:

Except those hospitals could cancel elective surgeries on their own. We did it often for lack of beds, staffing limits, low blood supplies, etc.

I'm not super worried about students overwhelming our hospitals since the vast majority of young adults don't need to be hospitalized.


If it gets to the point that BCS hospitals are cancelling elective surgeries so A&M can have in person classes, then we have a problem.

I'm not as concerned about students, though there will be a few just on numbers that require admission. However, I do anticipate an increase in the local population including faculty and staff.


If we get to the point of cancelling elective surgeries, we should definitely reconsider in person classes of all kinds.

I don't think we'll be in a situation where we have to cancel them in order to have space to have in person classes.
The problem is our local leaders or hospital officials won't get to make the decision.

Abbott will do it on his own without any consultation.


The tactical vs strategic thinking is clearly lacking.
trouble
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AG
And my experience at a trauma hospital is much different. A lot of elective back surgeries go to ICU overnight. And I'd say we had elective surgeries cancelled at least monthly.
trouble
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AG
If hospital leaders would do it on their own, he wouldn't have to.

We all saw the whining from the medical center that they were becoming overwhelmed. Then we found out that less than 30% of their ICU patients had Covid. They weren't willing to cancel elective procedures, esp cardiac ones, without being forced.

Also, elective can still mean medically necessary. It just isn't emergent.
happyinBCS
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Sure sounds like Abbott is thinking about another lockdown. I hope he does not do it
tb9665
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I just saw that too. He did call out Longview and Tyler for not enforcing his mask policy.
lockett93
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AG
Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

AggieYankee1
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[We have asked you several times to stop derailing this thread and you have continued to ignore those requests. -Staff]
Bucketrunner
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I don't think people will obey another shutdown order. JMHO
toolshed
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AG
scd88
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AG
How long do we wait until we see the effects of the mask orders?
toolshed
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AG
Two weeks!
isitjustme
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AG
scd88 said:

How long do we wait until we see the effects of the mask orders?
Until people distance enough and the infection rate goes down b/c of that. Then they'll claim it's b/c of the mask order and maybe relax it then.

Or, as more small businesses shut down b/c people just decide to stay home, that will be the biggest effect of the mask order.
scd88
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AG
I ask as I honestly want to know that my efforts will be rewarded with lower numbers. All of us do.

There will be a ****storm if there's no impact....
trouble
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AG
Honestly, at least 2 weeks from when it started. Add another week for lag in test results.
FlyRod
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Well again, a lot will depend on known unknowns...we don't really know how many have been masking or practicing distancing consistently. We don't know about indoor parties and gatherings (though maybe the police do?). We don't know about travel back and forth from our Blessed Isle to hot zones (but maybe one of y'all has access to that cell phone mobility data on that?)

Point being, IF cases in BCS don't go down, don't be too quick to cast blame on this or that party in the absence of a "big picture" view.
Bunk Moreland
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FlyRod said:

Well again, a lot will depend on known unknowns...we don't really know how many have been masking or practicing distancing consistently. We don't know about indoor parties and gatherings (though maybe the police do?). We don't know about travel back and forth from our Blessed Isle to hot zones (but maybe one of y'all has access to that cell phone mobility data on that?)

Point being, IF cases in BCS don't go down, don't be too quick to cast blame on this or that party in the absence of a "big picture" view.


Have you gone anywhere the last 2 weeks? 99.995% of people are wearing masks and distancing.
FlyRod
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I've seen more masks yes, but actually less distancing.
nought
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I was curious, so I repeated the same cumulative rate calculations for the total cases each day in Texas since the first reported cases on the texas.gov COVID-19 page (5 cases in their Excel file on March 6), and growing from there.

You may be surprised, or not, depending on which way you lean, that, just as locally, the cumulative rate has been falling in Texas. It only increased near the beginning and right after spring break. After that, it has continued falling, despite reopening, despite no masks at the time of reopening, despite Memorial weekend, despite July 4. I'll admit it is still early to make a call on whether July 4 will have any effect.

Here is the data. The first column is the date. The second is the total cases as reported by Texas as of that date. The third is the cumulative daily periodic rate it took to get from the first day of reported cases to the latest total. The fourth is a star if the cumulative rate for that day is the lowest seen so far, or tied with the lowest seen so far.

The problem we have is that the cumulative rate, while dropping steadily, is still almost 10% a day. That's a lot of compounding over a 3 to 4 month period. The good news for us locally is that we are looking a lot better than the rest of Texas in terms of our cumulative rate (see my earlier posts).

Mar 06 2020 5
Mar 07 2020 12 140.00 *
Mar 08 2020 15 73.21 *
Mar 09 2020 18 53.26 *
Mar 10 2020 22 44.83 *
Mar 11 2020 22 34.49 *
Mar 12 2020 56 49.58
Mar 13 2020 56 41.22
Mar 14 2020 63 37.26
Mar 15 2020 82 36.45
Mar 16 2020 108 35.97
Mar 17 2020 175 38.16
Mar 18 2020 235 37.83
Mar 19 2020 263 35.64
Mar 20 2020 287 33.55 *
Mar 21 2020 712 39.18
Mar 22 2020 975 39.04
Mar 23 2020 1394 39.26
Mar 24 2020 1731 38.38
Mar 25 2020 2048 37.24
Mar 26 2020 2552 36.58
Mar 27 2020 2874 35.33
Mar 28 2020 3266 34.26
Mar 29 2020 3996 33.72
Mar 30 2020 4665 32.97 *
Mar 31 2020 5324 32.16 *
Apr 01 2020 6112 31.44 *
Apr 02 2020 6793 30.63 *
Apr 03 2020 7273 29.70 *
Apr 04 2020 8261 29.11 *
Apr 05 2020 9353 28.55 *
Apr 06 2020 10230 27.88 *
Apr 07 2020 11671 27.42 *
Apr 08 2020 12561 26.77 *
Apr 09 2020 13484 26.16 *
Apr 10 2020 13906 25.43 *
Apr 11 2020 14624 24.82 *
Apr 12 2020 15492 24.27 *
Apr 13 2020 16455 23.75 *
Apr 14 2020 17371 23.25 *
Apr 15 2020 18260 22.76 *
Apr 16 2020 18923 22.26 *
Apr 17 2020 19458 21.75 *
Apr 18 2020 20196 21.30 *
Apr 19 2020 21069 20.89 *
Apr 20 2020 21944 20.49 *
Apr 21 2020 22806 20.10 *
Apr 22 2020 23773 19.74 *
Apr 23 2020 24631 19.38 *
Apr 24 2020 25297 19.01 *
Apr 25 2020 26171 18.68 *
Apr 26 2020 27054 18.36 *
Apr 27 2020 28087 18.06 *
Apr 28 2020 29229 17.78 *
Apr 29 2020 30522 17.52 *
Apr 30 2020 31548 17.24 *
May 01 2020 32332 16.96 *
May 02 2020 33369 16.71 *
May 03 2020 34422 16.46 *
May 04 2020 35390 16.21 *
May 05 2020 36609 15.99 *
May 06 2020 37860 15.77 *
May 07 2020 38869 15.55 *
May 08 2020 39869 15.33 *
May 09 2020 41048 15.12 *
May 10 2020 42403 14.93 *
May 11 2020 43851 14.75 *
May 12 2020 45198 14.56 *
May 13 2020 46999 14.40 *
May 14 2020 47784 14.21 *
May 15 2020 48693 14.02 *
May 16 2020 49912 13.85 *
May 17 2020 51323 13.69 *
May 18 2020 52268 13.52 *
May 19 2020 53449 13.36 *
May 20 2020 54509 13.20 *
May 21 2020 55348 13.03 *
May 22 2020 55971 12.87 *
May 23 2020 56560 12.71 *
May 24 2020 57921 12.57 *
May 25 2020 59776 12.45 *
May 26 2020 61006 12.32 *
May 27 2020 62338 12.19 *
May 28 2020 64287 12.07 *
May 29 2020 64880 11.94 *
May 30 2020 66568 11.82 *
May 31 2020 68271 11.71 *
Jun 01 2020 69920 11.60 *
Jun 02 2020 71613 11.49 *
Jun 03 2020 73553 11.39 *
Jun 04 2020 74978 11.28 *
Jun 05 2020 75616 11.16 *
Jun 06 2020 77253 11.05 *
Jun 07 2020 79757 10.97 *
Jun 08 2020 81583 10.87 *
Jun 09 2020 83680 10.78 *
Jun 10 2020 86011 10.69 *
Jun 11 2020 87854 10.60 *
Jun 12 2020 89108 10.50 *
Jun 13 2020 93206 10.44 *
Jun 14 2020 96335 10.37 *
Jun 15 2020 99851 10.30 *
Jun 16 2020 103305 10.23 *
Jun 17 2020 107735 10.17 *
Jun 18 2020 111601 10.11 *
Jun 19 2020 114881 10.04 *
Jun 20 2020 120370 9.99 *
Jun 21 2020 125921 9.93 *
Jun 22 2020 131917 9.88 *
Jun 23 2020 137624 9.83 *
Jun 24 2020 143366 9.78 *
Jun 25 2020 148723 9.72 *
Jun 26 2020 153011 9.66 *
Jun 27 2020 159986 9.61 *
Jun 28 2020 168062 9.57 *
Jun 29 2020 175977 9.53 *
Jun 30 2020 183532 9.48 *
Jul 01 2020 191790 9.44 *
Jul 02 2020 195239 9.37 *
Jul 03 2020 200557 9.32 *
Jul 04 2020 210585 9.28 *
Jul 05 2020 220564 9.24 *
Jul 06 2020 230346 9.20 *
Jul 07 2020 240111 9.16 *


The good news for Texas is despite that high cumulative rate, it is so high because of earlier times. If you check the spot rate of the last few days (total for one day divided by the total of the day before it), growth is in the mid 4-percent area. We want that to continue dropping. We had many days with much higher spot rates during peak lockdown time, so relatively speaking, we're doing pretty good. Absolutely speaking, 10,000 cases a day adds up.
Bunk Moreland
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FlyRod said:

I've seen more masks yes, but actually less distancing.


This was my #1 reason AGAINST masks. And I agree people now seem more willing to get up in your space.

Studies about masks in pandemics even with the rosiest of spin are mixed at best.

Studies about distancing have been proven over and over.
scd88
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AG
trouble said:

Honestly, at least 2 weeks from when it started. Add another week for lag in test results.


Thanks!
Rapier108
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And if we had been testing back in March and April at the rate we are now, we would have found far more than 10,000 cases per day.

That said, let's leave the mask debate to F84 or F16.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
scd88
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AG
Rapier108 said:

And if we had been testing back in March and April at the rate we are now, we would have found far more than 10,000 cases per day.

That said, let's leave the mask debate to F84 or F16.


Fair enough. I wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just keep looking for a downward trend and I'm not feeling it right now. The ICU percentage is a little worrisome, too.
nought
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scd88 said:


Fair enough. I wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just keep looking for a downward trend and I'm not feeling it right now. The ICU percentage is a little worrisome, too.


Remember hospitals often have 80 to 90 percent ICU capacity utilized.

In terms of a downward trend, look at my posts above with the Texas and local cumulative daily periodic rates. Every day with a star is evidence of a downward trend.
toolshed
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nought said:

scd88 said:


Fair enough. I wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just keep looking for a downward trend and I'm not feeling it right now. The ICU percentage is a little worrisome, too.


Remember hospitals often have 80 to 90 percent ICU capacity utilized.

In terms of a downward trend, look at my posts above with the Texas and local cumulative daily periodic rates. Every day with a star is evidence of a downward trend.


And that "capacity" doesn't include measures they can put in place to create more bed space. So 100% isn't "full" necessarily.
jeffk
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Is there a threshold for amount of ICU cases or hospitalizations where we should start being worried about local medical facilities getting overrun?
toolshed
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Trouble or someone else in medicine can answer that. As noted previously though, if they stop elective procedures, icu capacity increases by quite a bit. Then it would mostly be emergency and Covid patient usage. With the advances in treatment, deaths nationally being a fraction of what they were 3 months ago, I think for the time being we are ok.
ToxicAG
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toolshed said:

nought said:

scd88 said:


Fair enough. I wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just keep looking for a downward trend and I'm not feeling it right now. The ICU percentage is a little worrisome, too.


Remember hospitals often have 80 to 90 percent ICU capacity utilized.

In terms of a downward trend, look at my posts above with the Texas and local cumulative daily periodic rates. Every day with a star is evidence of a downward trend.


And that "capacity" doesn't include measures they can put in place to create more bed space. So 100% isn't "full" necessarily.


Bed space isn't the issue it is staffing and specialized training. ICU beds require at least 1 nurse and supporting staff whereas normal med/surgical beds are 1:5-10.
91_Aggie
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AG
Bunk Moreland said:

FlyRod said:

I've seen more masks yes, but actually less distancing.


This was my #1 reason AGAINST masks. And I agree people now seem more willing to get up in your space.

Studies about masks in pandemics even with the rosiest of spin are mixed at best.

Studies about distancing have been proven over and over.


So it sounds like you want the government to.mandate people staying home more?
toolshed
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AG
I'm aware.
ToxicAG
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There ya go
K2T2
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I feel like relying non the cumulative rate is folly, or misleading at least. Jumping 5000 cases in a day has a smaller cumulative rate! Hurrah! But that's because the total number is so ****ing high, it's easy to have a small rate. Its like the dad joke where the dad says hur hur, child, you're aging at a faster rate than me, your old man! Yeah, 1 year is a larger percent of someone's life the younger they are, but the older person is in fact declining more quickly.
 
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