B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

608,084 Views | 4441 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by Nosmo
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

Y'all really are going to be unhappy when TAMU shuts down again this fall because of "the individual freedom to express ourselves."



Unlikely
MBAR
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agrab86 said:

benchmark said:

agrab86 said:


The other point is covid, even with a vaccine, may be with us for decades. Do you really think that we should wear masks in public for decades?


Hopefully not! But is it such a great sacrifice to wear one until we know more? Until we have better treatments?
Yes it is such a great sacrifice. Distancing works much better, and masks provide a false sense of security. But more than that, it deprives each of us our individual freedom to express ourselves as we see fit. You may not agree with these reasons, as is your right, and you may keep using shame to try and bring others into compliance with your point of view. It is also why, contrary to what Schwartzenegger (sp?) says, face coverings are indeed a political issue.
Not sure what makes me more sad: that you think its a great sacrifice to wear a mask or that 5 people blue stared this. Imagine telling someone that fought at Normandy that this was a great sacrifice.
cavscout96
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Sad?

Imagine telling a D-Day vet that you're scared to leave your house.

isitjustme
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MBAR said:

agrab86 said:

benchmark said:

agrab86 said:


The other point is covid, even with a vaccine, may be with us for decades. Do you really think that we should wear masks in public for decades?


Hopefully not! But is it such a great sacrifice to wear one until we know more? Until we have better treatments?
Yes it is such a great sacrifice. Distancing works much better, and masks provide a false sense of security. But more than that, it deprives each of us our individual freedom to express ourselves as we see fit. You may not agree with these reasons, as is your right, and you may keep using shame to try and bring others into compliance with your point of view. It is also why, contrary to what Schwartzenegger (sp?) says, face coverings are indeed a political issue.
Not sure what makes me more sad: that you think its a great sacrifice to wear a mask or that 5 people blue stared this. Imagine telling someone that fought at Normandy that this was a great sacrifice.
It is a quandary. It may be more sad that you allow my comments and other people's blue stars to make you sad. You shouldn't give us that much power over your emotional wellbeing.

And I knew people who fought in Normandy and would have never considered telling any of them that anything is a great sacrifice. I would also suspect that none of those brave nonagenarians and centagenerians are wasting their precious time on this website, so I'm not telling them that now..
MBAR
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cavscout96 said:

Sad?

Imagine telling a D-Day vet that you're scared to leave your house.


I leave my house nearly every day. I wear a mask. That's literally the whole point.
cavscout96
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MBAR said:

cavscout96 said:

Sad?

Imagine telling a D-Day vet that you're scared to leave your house.


I leave my house nearly every day. I wear a mask. That's literally the whole point.

Well done. Gold star for you. There are plenty of doom and gloom folks who are convinced the world is ending next week.

I leave my house every day. I wear a mask when and where I'm asked to and, occasionally, in places where I think it might be a good idea to have a tiny bit of extra protection (which is all a mask really is*).

This is not about masks at all. It's about folks having enough sense, and enough usable data, to make informed decisions on how they are going to mitigate risk.

We are all lacking on real, usable, data since our Commissars can't find their heads with both hands. A good portion are also lacking in the "sense" department. Ultimately, these two factors have resulted in one, giant cluster.




FlyRod
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I actually agree with you here.

Out of curiosity if you could pick the top "thing" you would want good data on, what would it be?
Bunk Moreland
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FlyRod said:

I actually agree with you here.

Out of curiosity if you could pick the top "thing" you would want good data on, what would it be?

For me it's separating the data of patients who are sick and come to the doctor to get tested and test positive or who go to the hospital with actual symptoms directly related to covid. Not heart attacks or knee scopes where the patient also gets tested and depending on procedure can be 'booked' as a covid hospitalization.

I'm interested in all the data, but I want that split out so we can better understand the virus in a more controlled way.
Rapier108
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From the press conference.

52 total CV patients, 31 from Brazos County, the rest from outside.

65% capacity, which is actually below the usual.

46% in the past week, 18-24 age group, aka college students.

Sullivan hit a lot on bars, which everyone knows that is where the single biggest problem lies.

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

I actually agree with you here.

Out of curiosity if you could pick the top "thing" you would want good data on, what would it be?


For starters, I'd love to see:

Cluster specific data.

For example, how many are multiple family members in the same household or extended families in one or two homes.

GIS data to the point that it doesn't get down to house level. Maybe street or neighborhood.

A more granular breakdown of test dates and correlation of date of test to date of results and an extrapolation of likely infection date.

Less condescending opening remarks.

Actual answers to the questions posed by the press.

etj77845
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Today I saw a Nam AF vet with mask and social distancing. Man also had a DFC car tag... I'd say smart.
etj77845
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Quote:

I leave my house every day. I wear a mask when and where I'm asked to and, occasionally, in places where I think it might be a good idea to have a tiny bit of extra protection (which is all a mask really is*).


Cav,

Saw this after my previous response... I have done my own risk assessment and decided. 1)cloth mask in confined areas of low risk. 2) n95 spec mask in confined spaces of higher risk.

This decision made partially based in info from Army Times concern the Army's lab studies on effectiveness of barriers in COVID type experiments.

trouble
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I'd also like to know if they, like other places, are refusing to ask people if they've been a participant in protests and whether or not they were masked.
BQ_90
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trouble said:

I'd also like to know if they, like other places, are refusing to ask people if they've been a participant in protests and whether or not they were masked.
Don't you know, if you're looting and protesting your immune to covid.
toolshed
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Also recall that under utilized/ low % of capacity is partly why hospitals suffered early on and my understanding is part of why the staff at Scott and White was let go, basically little to no income from the elective procedures that were put on hold.

I'm curious what the break even is of bed/ ICU usage is. It would seem that hospitals need to able to quickly go between COVID icu usage to elective or emergency icu usage based on the current needs. Shutting down the hospital to prepare for a flood of COVID patients didn't work, so to make money and ends meet, they've started using the icu for standard procedures which has led to hand wringing over bed capacities.

trouble
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I have heard that.

Mostly, I'd like to know if we are seeing a bump from people being in large groups, outdoors, masked or not.
benchmark
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FlyRod said:

Out of curiosity if you could pick the top "thing" you would want good data on, what would it be?
For starters ...
  • Known - cases with probable known infection source (from contact tracing).
  • Unknown - cases with unknown infection source (community spread)
Followed by infection situations (to name a few):
  • Long term care facility
  • Medical facility
  • Employment
  • Household
  • Event
  • Travel
  • Retail
tb9665
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With the percentage college age it would be nice for TAMU and Blinn to remind students of social distancing.
lockett93
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Good to see so many discharges without new deaths.

Spreadsheet updated. Data for Age percentages Are crazy off between English and Spanish.
GiveEmHellBill
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Rapier108 said:

From the press conference.

52 total CV patients, 31 from Brazos County, the rest from outside.

65% capacity, which is actually below the usual.

46% in the past week, 18-24 age group, aka college students.

Sullivan hit a lot on bars, which everyone knows that is where the single biggest problem lies.
That's unpossible.

The "elephant in the room" assured us that they were inches away from peak capacity. That patients were being shipped around to other clinics because some places couldn't handle them. That we absolutely HAD to prepare for tent cities in local parking lots to handle the oncoming apocalypse.
BQ_90
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trouble said:

I have heard that.

Mostly, I'd like to know if we are seeing a bump from people being in large groups, outdoors, masked or not.
I bet yes, also we are testing way more than a month ago.
oklaunion
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They may be testing more but the percentage of positives compared to the total tested has risen a lot. I think Dr. Sullivan said it was around 24%. I think 1 out of 4 testing positive is pretty high.
Rapier108
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oklaunion said:

They may be testing more but the percentage of positives compared to the total tested has risen a lot. I think Dr. Sullivan said it was around 24%. I think 1 out of 4 testing positive is pretty high.
Without giving away a lot of information, there has been a very large number of college age individuals who are being tested simply due to contact with a positive case. Many have tested positive but have never shown or developed symptoms. Before we ramped up testing, these cases would never have been found. There was a time we only tested people who were sick, or had been in prolonged, close contact with known cases such as people living in the same house. It goes along with what other areas and countries have found, that there is a very large number of people who never develop symptoms or their symptoms are so mild they never even think it could be the China virus.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
MiMi
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But that seems a bit counter-intuitive. When we were only testing those with severe symptoms or prolonged contact with a positive patient, wouldn't you have expected a high positivity rate as well?
isitjustme
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MiMi said:

But that seems a bit counter-intuitive. When we were only testing those with severe symptoms or prolonged contact with a positive patient, wouldn't you have expected a high positivity rate as well?
Not necessarily. That's because if you look at the covid symptoms, there are lots of viruses, infections, and other maladies that share many of the same symptoms. So if you show symptoms, it could be any of those. But if you check people with no symptoms but have likely been exposed, they may be more likely to have covid because of its long incubation period. At least that makes sense to me, which means absolutely nothing.
Rapier108
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MiMi said:

But that seems a bit counter-intuitive. When we were only testing those with severe symptoms or prolonged contact with a positive patient, wouldn't you have expected a high positivity rate as well?
Early on, people who were sick were often sick with other illnesses. When this all started, the flu was still going strong so a lot of people who had the flu were tested for coronavirus. The number of actual cases being found was relatively low. Prolonged contact is where almost all, non-travel related, cases came from for the first 2-3 weeks.

Testing people who are sick, but don't have it is still true to some degree. There are numerous other diseases which could make people think they have the China virus, so they get tested, but test negative. However, since we now have more than enough tests, we can test anyone who had even possible exposure (let's say attended a large event, but never had direct contact with the positive case that was there) to see how much it spread at that event.

If you needed to be tested tomorrow, you could find multiple places in town to get tested, unless it was late in the day. If you tell them you had contact with a confirmed case, you will be approved to get tested.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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etj77845 said:

Quote:

I leave my house every day. I wear a mask when and where I'm asked to and, occasionally, in places where I think it might be a good idea to have a tiny bit of extra protection (which is all a mask really is*).


Cav,

Saw this after my previous response... I have done my own risk assessment and decided. 1)cloth mask in confined areas of low risk. 2) n95 spec mask in confined spaces of higher risk.

This decision made partially based in info from Army Times concern the Army's lab studies on effectiveness of barriers in COVID type experiments.


No worries here. Everyone has to make their own assessment. I'm not saying no one should were a mask. Only that I have an option, and you have an option. I'm not going to ridicule you for wearing one, and I hope people won't flip out and/or shame those who chose not to wear one.
cavscout96
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benchmark said:

FlyRod said:

Out of curiosity if you could pick the top "thing" you would want good data on, what would it be?
For starters ...
  • Known - cases with probable known infection source (from contact tracing).
  • Unknown - cases with unknown infection source (community spread)
Followed by infection situations (to name a few):
  • Long term care facility
  • Medical facility
  • Employment
  • Household
  • Event
  • Travel
  • Retail

agreed, although retail might be tough to nail down
KidDoc
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Rapier108 said:

oklaunion said:

They may be testing more but the percentage of positives compared to the total tested has risen a lot. I think Dr. Sullivan said it was around 24%. I think 1 out of 4 testing positive is pretty high.
Without giving away a lot of information, there has been a very large number of college age individuals who are being tested simply due to contact with a positive case. Many have tested positive but have never shown or developed symptoms. Before we ramped up testing, these cases would never have been found. There was a time we only tested people who were sick, or had been in prolonged, close contact with known cases such as people living in the same house. It goes along with what other areas and countries have found, that there is a very large number of people who never develop symptoms or their symptoms are so mild they never even think it could be the China virus.
This is 100% correct. We have a high % of positives due to contact tracing. MANY of them have no or very mild symptoms.

This is how a pandemic should be managed- see S Korea data.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
benchmark
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cavscout96 said:

agreed, although retail might be tough to nail down
Probably. Most people want data that allows risk assessment to situations that apply. Unknown infection sources is a good indicator of community-spread. Also addition by subtraction ... take away infections from settings that may not fit your situation. i.e. nursing homes, travel, events, household, zip code, race, etc.
Rapier108
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Daily numbers aren't out yet, but a reminder before they are.

Since today is Tuesday, it is likely given the way the updates seem to work in Brazos County, that we'll see a very large number of cases and tests being reported. This is one thing Sullivan has been accurate about; it is simply how the reporting works. Sunday and Monday tend to be low because few tests and results are reported on Saturday and Sunday. Then Monday rolls around and they get flooded with the backlog which are reported the following day, and makes Tuesday's numbers look far worse than they really are.

Hopefully, we won't see it happen this week, but if it does, put it into context before running for the bunker.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
scd88
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I so despise mask culture. I hate wearing one for a variety of reasons (not vanity related); and hate seeing so many people wear them. It's here for a long time if not forever, to a certain degree. It's such a shift in how we go out and what we do. It is wrong. ****ing China.
cavscout96
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benchmark said:

cavscout96 said:

agreed, although retail might be tough to nail down
Probably. Most people want data that allows risk assessment to situations that apply. Unknown infection sources is a good indicator of community-spread. Also addition by subtraction ... take away infections from settings that may not fit your situation. i.e. nursing homes, travel, events, household, zip code, race, etc.
exactly, Except race, in my particular instance. The places I have/need/want to go are not homogeneous by any means. So, the large spike in the Hispanic population is a concern, first, from the perspective of general human empathy, but also because I go to places and do things that bring me into contact with a wide swath of races/ethnic groups, including Hispanics. In mid August, I'll get to hang out with the 18-25 group daily.

Assume everyone has it.
Assume you are pretty likely to get it.
Understand the risks (this is where the horrid performance of our "leaders" causes problems)
Understand that it's not a death sentence for 99.8% of the population.
Analyze your risk tolerance
Implement steps to remain within YOUR acceptable level of risk.
91_Aggie
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scd88 said:

I so despise mask culture. I hate wearing one for a variety of reasons (not vanity related); and hate seeing so many people wear them. It's here for a long time if not forever, to a certain degree. It's such a shift in how we go out and what we do. It is wrong. ****ing China.


Sad to see you have associated wearing a mask with a political stance rather than a way to slow the spread and help protect others. So many selfish people out there who just cannot bear a minor incovenience that could protect others.

I see most of the anti-maskers being older people who probably have complained in the past about the younger generation as snowflakes who cannot deal with any adversity, yet here you have these older folks who cannot bring themselves to deal with the simple incovenience of wearing a mask.

I guess snowflakes come in all ages.
FlyRod
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You raise an interesting point about how mask wearing skews by age. I'm curious as well. I've seen both old and young wearing masks (or not) but yeah seems mostly the older (higher risk) who aren't. Completely unscientific observation of course.
 
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