B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

800,563 Views | 5509 Replies | Last: 17 min ago by FlyRod
aggiepm
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Ohio for example, saw a huge decrease. You can find that plot at the top of the article.
Esteban du Plantier
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FlyRod said:

Not sure what data you are referring to as "empirical evidence," but guessing it's similar to mine: observation.

No one I know is cavorting around in bars and restaurants maskless, and I'm talking about people in their 30s-50s...so, no, it isn't just the 85 year olds with diabetes who are hunkering down. None of these people are hysterical either; they're just good at reading and interpreting actual evidence, vs. what internet randos claim is or is not happening.

I haven't seen any local public opinion data on what people will or will not tolerate re shutdowns. That will almost certainly be conditional on changing conditions, for better, or for worse. Read Judge Peters' new statement carefully, and watch that caveat about "things change day to day."


My sales were up across Texas and Oklahoma nearly double vs LY starting with the stay at home order. Now that we're more open, sales are still up, but only 30-50% more than same week LY.

My operation has done many millions in business more since early April than same time LY. I can say with confidence that people were not home afraid.


Edit: lots of typos on the cell phone.
cavscout96
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aggiepm said:

There is actually a good bit of data about people making the choice to hunker down and I think we will see it soon if things continue the way that they are.

Check out this piece about falling restaurant attendance even before the lockdown: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-is-hitting-restaurants-hard-even-in-states-that-havent-shut-them-down/

Texas's restaurant attendance TANKED before any of the lockdown measures were put into place.

take a drive around town. Compare that to mid-March. I spend a considerable amount of time on the road in Brazos and the surrounding counties. Movement is up. consumer activity is up. eating at dining establishments is up. People are in parks. Sports teams are practicing.

I see it with my own eyes every day. Since the discussion is B/CS specific, I'll believe my eyes rather than 538.

cavscout96
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Esteban du Plantier said:

FlyRod said:

Not sure what data you are referring to as "empirical evidence," but guessing it's similar to mine: observation.

No one I know is cavorting around in bars and restaurants maskless, and I'm talking about people in their 30s-50s...so, no, it isn't just the 85 year olds with diabetes who are hunkering down. None of these people are hysterical either; they're just good at reading and interpreting actual evidence, vs. what internet randos claim is or is not happening.

I haven't seen any local public opinion data on what people will or will not tolerate re shutdowns. That will almost certainly be conditional on changing conditions, for better, or for worse. Read Judge Peters' new statement carefully, and watch that caveat about "things change day to day."


My sales were up across Texas and Oklahoma nearly double vs LY starting with the stay at home order. Now that we're more open, sales are still up, but only 30-50% more than same week LY.

My operation has done many millions in business more since early April than same time LY. I can say with confidence that people were not home afraid.


Edit: lots of typos on the cell phone.
EdP, for clarity, I think we are in agreement. Lots of folks are out. Only the vulnerable (rightly) and scared are at home.
aggiepm
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cavscout96 said:

aggiepm said:

There is actually a good bit of data about people making the choice to hunker down and I think we will see it soon if things continue the way that they are.

Check out this piece about falling restaurant attendance even before the lockdown: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-is-hitting-restaurants-hard-even-in-states-that-havent-shut-them-down/

Texas's restaurant attendance TANKED before any of the lockdown measures were put into place.

take a drive around town. Compare that to mid-March. I spend a considerable amount of time on the road in Brazos and the surrounding counties. Movement is up. consumer activity is up. eating at dining establishments is up. People are in parks. Sports teams are practicing.

I see it with my own eyes every day. Since the discussion is B/CS specific, I'll believe my eyes rather than 538.
I get your anecdote, but what you described isn't even the same situation as the data (Post lockdown vs Pre lockdown). Of course there has been a bump after we reopened... I wasn't disputing that. What I was saying is that we are likely to see some of that activity fall if the hospitalizations continue to rise at the rate that they have this past week.
dubi
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Quote:

According to Brazos County CEOC statement, on 6-16-2020 for about 2 hours, there was only 1 ICU bed available in all the Brazos Valley hospitals.

This is just a scare tactic.

Frequently the ICU's are at or near capacity as part of the every day business. It has been that way for YEARS and well before the Covid pandemic.

St Joseph's has a "step down" unit that is equipped like ICU and can be converted at the whim of the administrators. This immediately doubles their capacity. I suspect that S&W has a similar setup.
new straw
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I don't think it's really a scare tactic. Several hospitals are at capacity in all units, including step down, meaning, there simply isn't any other place for patients to go. Even if a telemetry bed could magically be converted to an ICU bed, If all 35 of the telemetry rooms are full, then, there really is nowhere left for them to go. I'm not sure why everyone is so focused on ICU beds.
TLDR: step down units are likely already utilized, meaning, they can't just simply "double" capacity.
nought
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new straw said:

I don't think it's really a scare tactic. Several hospitals are at capacity in all units, including step down, meaning, there simply isn't any other place for patients to go. Even if a telemetry bed could magically be converted to an ICU bed, If all 35 of the telemetry rooms are full, then, there really is nowhere left for them to go. I'm not sure why everyone is so focused on ICU beds.


Which hospitals in town are at full capacity? That contradicts what Sullivan said 3 days ago.
new straw
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It has changed in 3 days. And I will not specify hospitals. I'm not talking signature care though.
dubi
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new straw said:

It has changed in 3 days. And I will not specify hospitals. I'm not talking signature care though.

Are they full of Covid patients?

Or just regular ole sick people?
aggietoolman
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On Monday Sulivan said we were around 50-60% capacity
Report showed 20 hospital patients (I believe 37 when counting outlying areas in BCS hospitals)

Today there are 27 hospital patients

If 37 was 60% capacity, then the max capacity should be around 62 patients

BCS is up by 7 patients. If outside patients were unchanged then you have 44 total which is around 70% capacity. That's assuming none of the extra 17 patients were discharged over the week.

Did that number go up? Down?

If we are near capacity, then there is a big spike from outside the county or a lot of other procedures are taking place taking up beds. That number should be shown. The point is to know what kind of capacity the hospitals have.
cslifer
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They may have rooms that meet ICU specs, but the problem is staffing. I can assure you they don't have the staffing to pull that off.
cavscout96
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aggiepm said:

cavscout96 said:

aggiepm said:

There is actually a good bit of data about people making the choice to hunker down and I think we will see it soon if things continue the way that they are.

Check out this piece about falling restaurant attendance even before the lockdown: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-is-hitting-restaurants-hard-even-in-states-that-havent-shut-them-down/

Texas's restaurant attendance TANKED before any of the lockdown measures were put into place.

take a drive around town. Compare that to mid-March. I spend a considerable amount of time on the road in Brazos and the surrounding counties. Movement is up. consumer activity is up. eating at dining establishments is up. People are in parks. Sports teams are practicing.

I see it with my own eyes every day. Since the discussion is B/CS specific, I'll believe my eyes rather than 538.
I get your anecdote, but what you described isn't even the same situation as the data (Post lockdown vs Pre lockdown). Of course there has been a bump after we reopened... I wasn't disputing that. What I was saying is that we are likely to see some of that activity fall if the hospitalizations continue to rise at the rate that they have this past week.
and I am disagreeing with you. This isn't Ohio.
cavscout96
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cavscout96 said:

aggiepm said:

cavscout96 said:

aggiepm said:

There is actually a good bit of data about people making the choice to hunker down and I think we will see it soon if things continue the way that they are.

Check out this piece about falling restaurant attendance even before the lockdown: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-is-hitting-restaurants-hard-even-in-states-that-havent-shut-them-down/

Texas's restaurant attendance TANKED before any of the lockdown measures were put into place.

take a drive around town. Compare that to mid-March. I spend a considerable amount of time on the road in Brazos and the surrounding counties. Movement is up. consumer activity is up. eating at dining establishments is up. People are in parks. Sports teams are practicing.

I see it with my own eyes every day. Since the discussion is B/CS specific, I'll believe my eyes rather than 538.
I get your anecdote, but what you described isn't even the same situation as the data (Post lockdown vs Pre lockdown). Of course there has been a bump after we reopened... I wasn't disputing that. What I was saying is that we are likely to see some of that activity fall if the hospitalizations continue to rise at the rate that they have this past week.
and I am disagreeing with you. This isn't Ohio.
or Austin, San Antonio, or Dallas. I am talking about B/CS. look at the activity here. Compare it to other places. The movement trends are different.
cavscout96
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cslifer said:

They may have rooms that meet ICU specs, but the problem is staffing. I can assure you they don't have the staffing to pull that off.
interesting that this has never been mentioned before as a limiting factor. Another example of "moving the goal posts?"
happyinBCS
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KBTX has an interview at 4 from another Doc and Kathleen keeps pushing should we step back and close down and his response was NO Thankful she is getting full pay through all of this, how about the rest of the folks
new straw
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You really haven't ever heard of the nursing shortage? I feel like that's been in the news for years.. it didn't disappear.
91_Aggie
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aggietoolman said:


Report showed 20 hospital patients (I believe 37 when counting outlying areas in BCS hospitals)

Today there are 27 hospital patients


the better question is how many of those 27 are in ICU/Signature care?
etj77845
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I'm not sure we are getting a good picture of current hospital capacity. We only see Brazos County, but outlying counties use the major facilities in BCS

A look at Trauma Service Area 'N' indicates 12 ICU beds available vs. 26 available on 5.23. Vents 49, on 5.23 57.
Total CoVID in hospital today 41. BUT we are at 22% for available hospital beds for the TSA, slightly lower than state wide numbers.
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f



lockett93
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I'm late to update for the large increases last 2 days...

Yesterday's results include:

22 African American
39 Caucasian
80 Hispanic

66 Male, 79 Female

we had:
0 in 90's
1 in 80's
3 in 70's
3 in 60's
15 in 50's
22 in 40's
16 in 30's
63 in 20's
16 in 15-19
6 in <15

48 in College Station zips
43 in Bryan zips
UNKOWN

69 Community
77 Cluster

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/

Today's results include:

13 African American
28 Caucasian
25 Hispanic


25 Male, 45 Female

we had:
0 in 90's
0 in 80's
1 in 70's
1 in 60's
5 in 50's
6 in 40's
10 in 30's
32 in 20's
11 in 15-19
4 in <15

39 in College Station zips
31 in Bryan zips

52 Community
18 Cluster
lockett93
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LAST SEVEN DAYS results include:

374 Cases

53 African American
123 Caucasian
175 Hispanic

156 Male, 218 Female

we had:
0 in 90's
4 in 80's
12 in 70's
11 in 60's
35 in 50's
51 in 40's
41 in 30's
158 in 20's
44 in 15-19
18 in <15

159 in College Station zips
154 in Bryan zips

249 Community
126 Cluster
nought
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aggietoolman said:

On Monday Sulivan said we were around 50-60% capacity
Report showed 20 hospital patients (I believe 37 when counting outlying areas in BCS hospitals)

Today there are 27 hospital patients

If 37 was 60% capacity, then the max capacity should be around 62 patients.


Either there is a disconnect in information or someone was being intentionally misleading (best face I can put on it).

Scott & White in CS alone has roughly 25 beds on the cardiac wing alone. It has more than 10 ICU beds. I bet St Joseph's has more.

With 27 COVID patients in the hospitals, I don't see how we can be anywhere near capacity of beds or ICU beds in town by far.
benchmark
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Esteban du Plantier said:

My argument is primarily against the 'sky is falling' types that will say we need to close everything back down.

I wear a mask when I'm out and about.
I appreciate that even though your research leaves you feeling confidant you will remain healthy, you continue to wear a mask in public places to minimize the risk to yourself and others.
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new straw
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Because people go to cardiac and ICU units for other reasons as well.
cavscout96
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new straw said:

You really haven't ever heard of the nursing shortage? I feel like that's been in the news for years.. it didn't disappear.


Let me say it again.... It's not been mentioned in the last 90 days as a limiting factor. Now, suddenly, it is?



dubi
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Link

[url=https://www.facebook.com/groups/158015618707622/permalink/203772257465291/][/url]"The Mind of a Politician"

Today was very enlightening. I got to see into the mind of a successful politician who is passionate about leading her community out of the malaise of these times. She wanted to understand the facts, so that she could make the right decisions and provide the proper leadership.

It was inspiring to me, and it gives me hope.

But also informative.

She said that the messages her community has been receiving from their government and the media have them irrationally paralyzed at home.

83% of her constituents remain terrified of the virus, in a county where today ONE new case and ZERO new hospitalizations were reported, and the most recent death was over three weeks ago.

Anyone following this page understands the clear meaning of these numbers. The epidemic is OVER in our county. And I don't mean "essentially done." I mean *over and done with."

We're not talking Cat5, Cat1, or even downgraded to a tropical storm. We're talking sunny skies, with a few puddles drying out.

All along I have been puzzled why governors would want to make such bad health decisions and suppress their state economies to boot. Now I finally understand.

It is not about the *actual* performance of their economies, nor the *actual* number of deaths they prevent.

The numbers don't matter.

Governors must *appear* to care more about the lives of their constituents than anything else. Because the media amplification of this issue means that every case and every death will be laid at their feet.

And regardless of their decisions, there will be deaths.

So governors that appear caring and over-cautious can be re-elected (83% support), but ones that actually make the difficult choices necessary to save lives and recover their economies won't be re-elected, because the media will eat them alive.

The media is screaming "Cat5!"

I get it now.

America, we are better than this.



Link

[url=https://www.facebook.com/groups/158015618707622/permalink/203796950796155/][/url]I swear, if one more person tries to show me "reported cases" data to make an argument about the status of their epidemic, I am gonna... I am gonna... I am gonna....

... be patient...

... take a deep breath...

... and explain slowly and politely for the seventy-eleventh time that cases are...

A REALLY, REALLY STUPID WAY TO TRACK THE PROGRESS OF AN EPIDEMIC!!!!

Now that that is out of my system, next question, please...

Fitch
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dubi
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How many are from BCS vs surrounding areas who use our hospitals?

Age range of the hospitalized patients?
Fitch
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I don't know. These are just the data the state publishes: https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

It's unlikely the demographic data of the hospitalized is collected due to HIPAA.
ToxicAG
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Here is a link showing similar trends in the Texas Medical Center in Houston.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/
AggiePhil
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One of the Brazos County District Courts has now shut down due to COVID-19 exposure. Not good!
theNetSmith
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AggiePhil said:

One of the Brazos County District Courts has now shut down due to COVID-19 exposure. Not good!
Source?
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GSS
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AggiePhil said:

One of the Brazos County District Courts has now shut down due to COVID-19 exposure. Not good!
What is the official (?) definition of "exposure", to the extent it shuts down a courtroom?

Another 'moving target'?
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