B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

673,738 Views | 4711 Replies | Last: 9 hrs ago by Nosmo
cavscout96
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That's a pretty nice SS.

I'd like to see the county demographics side by side. We here a lot about how African American are disproportionately affected, bit it doesn't appear to be the case here.

Hispanics seem over-represented, but that might have more to do with the multi-generational living arrangements common to the community.

Also interesting how many 20y/o are in the numbers.

Thanks for putting all that together.
Rapier108
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cavscout96 said:

That's a pretty nice SS.

I'd like to see the county demographics side by side. We here a lot about how African American are disproportionately affected, bit it doesn't appear to be the case here.

Hispanics seem over-represented, but that might have more to do with the multi-generational living arrangements common to the community.

Also interesting how many 20y/o are in the numbers.

Thanks for putting all that together.
According to the 2010 census, this is the makeup of Brazos County. Probably has changed some in the last 10 years.

74.45% White
10.72% Black
4.01% Asian
The rest would be multi-racial, American Indian, and other small % classifications
17.88% Hispanic (The government actually counts most Hispanics as white)

So based on the current numbers, blacks are running about 1% higher at the moment (wouldn't be surprised if one family got hit and it spiked the numbers), while whites are running well below, and Hispanics way high.

We discussed on the politics board why blacks seemed to be hit hard in various areas, but I'm too tired right now to look up the thread. Its basically a combination of areas with large black populations getting hit hard such as New Orleans, others due to living conditions (large, public housing projects where people are crammed in close quarters thus making spread quick and easy) and that blacks tend to have higher rates of some of the most dangerous comorbidities like high blood pressure, obesity, and diabetes. Hispanics are often #2 when it comes to those same conditions.

And if anyone thinks saying that is racist, see the links at the bottom of this post.

I'd say the main contribution of the Hispanic numbers is Sanderson Farms, now that we know the outbreak there isn't over.

One problem is there is that big "unknown" chunk of cases from P@T so it is kind of throwing the numbers out of whack.

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html
https://www.cdc.gov/bloodpressure/facts.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/library/features/diabetes-stat-report.html
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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Thanks. I didn't realize the % of AA was that low in Brazos county.

I spend a lot of time in several neighboring counties where the % empirically seems considerably higher. That has probably skewed my perception.

I tend to agree that population density and close quarters are likely significant contributors to high infection rates.
Rapier108
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7 new cases
0 new deaths (Sadly this will probably go up due to the number in the hospital and the outbreak at P@T.)
78 new tests
10 in the hospital (-1 +1)

77803 +4
77840 +2
77845 +1

They've also added a new page on the PDF, "Positivity Rates" which is a good addition in my opinion.

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.29.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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7 new cases
0 new deaths
12 in the hospital (+2)
183 new tests

77803 +5
77840 +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.30.20.pdf

On the hospitalizations, I have zero doubt that virtually all of it is coming from P@T. The number of EMS calls there have jumped big time in the last few days. Already heard one this morning, and its easy to figure out that they're responding to a virus patient based on what the dispatcher says, even though they never actually say it. Then the medic unit ends up "out of service for decon" after taking the person to the hospital. There was also an very old woman from north Bryan that was clearly a positive case going to the hospital a couple of days ago.

Sadly, all of this means we'll likely have a spike in deaths before too long.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

1 African American
1 Caucasian
5 Hispanic
0 other

2 Male, 5 Female

we had:
2 in 50's
1 in 40's
2 in 30's
1 in 20's
1 in 15-19

2 in College Station zips
5 in Bryan zips

3 Community
4 Cluster
KidDoc
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lockett93 said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

1 African American
1 Caucasian
5 Hispanic
0 other

2 Male, 5 Female

we had:
2 in 50's
1 in 40's
2 in 30's
1 in 20's
1 in 15-19

2 in College Station zips
5 in Bryan zips

3 Community
4 Cluster
Any interest or chance you can add an active cases to the document? As that is what really matters day to day.
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lockett93
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I will add active cases, but I'd argue hospitalizations is all that matters. Do we trust the active cases number is accurate?
KidDoc
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lockett93 said:

I will add active cases, but I'd argue hospitalizations is all that matters. Do we trust the active cases number is accurate?


I think so as they are contacting active cases regularly and once their symptoms pass they are recovered.

The hospital rate is very important from a public health macro view. On a micro view of risk of exposure when going to the store the active cases as a percent of the population is a valid way to estimate risk.
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cavscout96
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Shouldn't all of the (identified) active cases be in quarantine?

How does AC as a % influence decision making in this case?

Not disagreeing, just trying to follow the logic.

I agree that more, relevant, info is always better to inform decisions. Just wondering how you assess the risk from AC when (we believe) much of the current AC are from two significant clusters? Are/should those cluaters be weighted differently?

Thanks again Lockett for all the compilation. .
Rapier108
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6 new cases
0 deaths
153 new tests
15 in the hospital (+3) (Pretty much as expected, but watch our local media and officials lose their minds.)

77802 +2
77803 +2
77840 +1
77845 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.31.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

0 African American
3 Caucasian
3 Hispanic
0 other

3 Male, 3 Female

we had:
1 in 60's
2 in 50's
1 in 40's
2 in 20's

2 in College Station zips
4 in Bryan zips

5 Community
1 Cluster
cavscout96
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How many of those new hospitalizations are from P@T?
Rapier108
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cavscout96 said:

How many of those new hospitalizations are from P@T?
I would say 2 of the 3 for certain based on yesterday's EMS calls. Both patients were clearly positive cases based on everything the dispatcher and EMS said, the EMS unit being out of service for "decon" afterwards, and the patients suffering from "low O2 sat" which is pretty much one of the top symptoms of the virus. Could have easily been another when I was asleep or when I went for a walk.

Only thing I don't know is whether or not there is a bit of lag between people being admitted to the hospital and appearing in the BCHD's statistics.

These are things the media should be asking in the press conference tomorrow, but they won't. Instead, we'll probably get some inane questions about how long until the hospitals are overwhelmed, and whether or not we need to go back into shutdown mode. Wouldn't be surprised if someone blames all of the cases on the bars being open.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
benchmark
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For anyone interested in community spread cases since they started reporting 'cluster' separately. FYI

KidDoc
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cavscout96 said:

Shouldn't all of the (identified) active cases be in quarantine?

How does AC as a % influence decision making in this case?

Not disagreeing, just trying to follow the logic.

I agree that more, relevant, info is always better to inform decisions. Just wondering how you assess the risk from AC when (we believe) much of the current AC are from two significant clusters? Are/should those cluaters be weighted differently?

Thanks again Lockett for all the compilation. .


Yes they should be quarantined but there is so current legal activity to enforce that and people have to pay bills and get food.
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cavscout96
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KidDoc said:

cavscout96 said:

Shouldn't all of the (identified) active cases be in quarantine?

How does AC as a % influence decision making in this case?

Not disagreeing, just trying to follow the logic.

I agree that more, relevant, info is always better to inform decisions. Just wondering how you assess the risk from AC when (we believe) much of the current AC are from two significant clusters? Are/should those cluaters be weighted differently?

Thanks again Lockett for all the compilation. .


Yes they should be quarantined but there is so current legal activity to enforce that and people have to pay bills and get food.


I guess I was under the mistaken impression that arrangements were made to support quarantined individuals and families.

cavscout96
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By which I mean food and other essential deliveries.
dubi
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cavscout96 said:

By which I mean food and other essential deliveries.
I think the govt stupidly assumes friends and family will drop off food and pay your rent while you are quarantined.

Imagine a poor family with mom and dad both quarantined? No savings? Of course they will do whatever is necessary to eat and keep a roof over their head.
Ratsa
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I heard the food bank is working in conjunction with the Health Department to identify food insecure COVID-positive residents and deliver food to them weekly until they recover. I'm not sure whether they are also doing this for people quarantined due to exposure, but haven't tested positive.
dubi
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Ratsa said:

I heard the food bank is working in conjunction with the Health Department to identify food insecure COVID-positive residents and deliver food to them weekly until they recover. I'm not sure whether they are also doing this for people quarantined due to exposure, but haven't tested positive.

They should so those folks don't have to go out and get food.
Rapier108
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4 new cases
0 deaths
0 new tests
15 in the hospital (-1 +1)

77801 +1
77802 +1
77808 +1
77840 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.1.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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Rapier108 said:

  • 4 new cases
0 deaths
  • 0 new tests
15 in the hospital (-1 +1)

77801 +1
77802 +1
77808 +1
77840 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.1.20.pdf
how is this feasible?

KidDoc
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cavscout96 said:

Rapier108 said:

  • 4 new cases
0 deaths
  • 0 new tests
15 in the hospital (-1 +1)

77801 +1
77802 +1
77808 +1
77840 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.1.20.pdf
how is this feasible?


I would guess just none reported.
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trouble
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They report tests as soon as they are submitted not when they get results.
cavscout96
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ah... OK.

I guess 0 new tests means 0 new folks presenting for symptoms, so that is a bit of a plus, right?
cavscout96
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I guess the new buzz phrase is respect and responsibility.

Novel.
Rapier108
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Going to try my best to post anything useful from the press conference.

49 total cases at Sanderson Farms (+4 from the last report IIRC) with 20 being active.

Reminding people to go to the doctor if they need medical care (non-CV obviously) and not wait until it becomes acute and you end up in the ER, which is happening at a higher rate than normal.

That is it today before questions. Only going to post anything of interest.

Bill Oliver asks about the A&M person about projected enrollment and how many they think might return to B/CS. Instead, he goes off on a tangent about the protests and riots. Good freaking grief, this is not your personal press conference to go off on something completely off topic. Did not really answer the actual question.

Rusty asked a question about testing, and Sullivan said they're not getting test results back as quickly as possible. The delays are mostly from the state labs. Commercial labs are much faster.

The Eagle asks about the dangers of protests, but has a tangent about "racism and violence." (Can we just keep on the topic of the virus and leave everything else out?) Sullivan did say the highest risk for transmission is prolonged, close quarter contact, mostly indoors. Then has to go off about protests. *Insert Eye Roll*

Okay, can't listen anymore. Got something to do.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
KidDoc
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I didn't listen to the whole thing, had to get doggies walked after clinic!

The only interesting thing I heard was Sullivan talking about recovered numbers. He says the number they report are confirmed recovered. They often have trouble reaching patients to see if they are recovered so they just stay on the "active case" list for extended periods. He was walking about possibly just making them "assumed recovered" 10-14 days after diagnosis if they cannot reach them.
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Fitch
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Rapier108
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14 new cases
524 new tests
0 deaths
16 in the hospital (+1)

77801 +2
77802 +2
77803 +5
77807 +3
77808 +1
77840 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.2.20.pdf

Without a doubt, people will see "14 new cases" headline from our doom filled media, and think the world is ending because they have no idea how many tests were done recently.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
toolshed
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I wonder if there was another facility tested to account for the 500+ tests done? Or does somewhere like Parc do a full round of retests after the last round to find new cases, or just test on a per case basis based on symptoms? I know a number of the positives there were asymptomatic, so testing based on symptoms would seem to miss infections/ spreaders.

I found it amusing yesterday with zero tests, 4 new cases, and I think 1 hospitalization, KBTX had the "Breaking News, 15 hospitalizations" headline!

It's so irritating that the fear gets the clicks and drives the headlines. Which in turn drives the ads and advertising rates, which brings in the money to the news media. So even if there's good news, relatively stable cases, lower hospitalizations, etc, the media has to find a fear source to report on in order to draw people in to pay the bills.
cavscout96
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toolshed said:

I wonder if there was another facility tested to account for the 500+ tests done? Or does somewhere like Parc do a full round of retests after the last round to find new cases, or just test on a per case basis based on symptoms? I know a number of the positives there were asymptomatic, so testing based on symptoms would seem to miss infections/ spreaders.

I found it amusing yesterday with zero tests, 4 new cases, and I think 1 hospitalization, KBTX had the "Breaking News, 15 hospitalizations" headline!

It's so irritating that the fear gets the clicks and drives the headlines. Which in turn drives the ads and advertising rates, which brings in the money to the news media. So even if there's good news, relatively stable cases, lower hospitalizations, etc, the media has to find a fear source to report on in order to draw people in to pay the bills.
I've been having this exact conversation with my kids and my employees since this whole mess kicked off in March.

Listen to / read the FACTS; consider the source; consider the source's motivation. Compile all of the preceding. To the extent that you can, discern the TRUTH.

Hard to do these days. It takes effort and critical thinking. Many (most?) would rather been spoon-fed someone else's version/soundbite.
BlueMiles
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AG
I did not comment yesterday, but I caught part of the "press conference." I think it was the KAGS reporter who asked whether kids should go to swimming pools this summer. The answer was a more drawn out version of "it depends on how scared you are of getting sick."
KidDoc
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That huge increase in testing may be from the drive through testing results finally coming in, but I don't have any inside knowledge about those test sights.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
 
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