B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

1,184,914 Views | 6626 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Nosmo
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,125 (+104) confirmed cases, 6,391 (+42) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/8/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,003 (+38) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/8/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,222 (+14). The number of additional doses given is 46,430 (+57). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.72% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 43 (+2); 7.79% of total hospital capacity as of 7/7/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 43
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 36
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 7
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 11
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 5
FlyRod
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What was the highest % of hospital capacity locally Covid accounted for, if anyone recalls?
trouble
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AG
We hit low 40s during the Delta surge.
FlyRod
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Thanks.
Hornbeck
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AG
I'm surprised that we haven't heard more on kbtx etc about this spike.
FlyRod
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Hornbeck said:

I'm surprised that we haven't heard more on kbtx etc about this spike.


The Eagle talked about it.
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,252 (+131) confirmed cases, 6,438 (+89) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/9/22.

(No update posted by DSHS on 7/9/22) Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,003 (+38) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/8/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,222 (+14). The number of additional doses given is 46,430 (+57). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.72% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 45 (+2); 8.11% of total hospital capacity as of 7/8/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 45
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 40
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 5
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 9
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 5
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,354 (+102) confirmed cases, 6,448 (+10) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/10/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,013 (+10) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/10/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,238 (+16). The number of additional doses given is 46,461 (+31). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.73% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 43 (-2); 8.08% of total hospital capacity as of 7/9/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 43
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 41
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 2
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 13
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 1
trouble
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AG
That's a significant change in ICU patients and vents.
dubi
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AG
trouble said:

That's a significant change in ICU patients and vents.
I bet there was a mistake in the prior number.
FlyRod
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trouble said:

That's a significant change in ICU patients and vents.


I hope so. Sadly I've seen this before and then death notices a few days later. Hopefully not.
trouble
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AG
More likely it's with today.
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,416 (+62) confirmed cases, 6,457 (+9) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/11/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,020 (+7) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/11/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,246 (+8). The number of additional doses given is 46,475 (+14). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.73% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 39 (-4); 7.98% of total hospital capacity as of 7/10/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 39
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 37
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 2
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 2
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 1
Nosmo
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AG
https://covid.tamu.edu/dashboard/index.html

Weekly COVID-19 Testing Activity and Positivity at Texas A&M University

Note: "1 yr ago" and "2 yrs ago", X(Y.Y%) format, X=positive count, and Y.Y%= % test positive
College quit reporting "testing activity" in May 2022.

Wk end ------- positive ------- 1 yr ago --------------- 2 yrs ago

07/02/22 --------- 21 -------- 5 ( 1.6% )
07/09/22 -------- 18 -------- 6 ( 3.1% )
07/16/22 -------- ___ ------- 16 ( 5.0% )
07/23/22 -------- ___ ------- 32 ( 7.0% )
07/30/22 -------- ___ ------- 60 ( 8.3% )
08/06/22 -------- ___ ------- 89 ( 8.2% ) ----------- 17 ( 3.1% )
08/13/22 -------- ___ ------ 144 ( 10.1% ) --------- 32 ( 6.5% )
08/20/22 -------- ___ ------ 139 ( 5.9% ) ---------- 371 ( 17.0% )
08/27/22 -------- ___ ------ 774 ( 2.7% ) ---------- 327 ( 9.9% )
09/03/22 -------- ___----- 1,116 ( 5.0% ) ---------- 285 ( 10.2% )
09/10/22 -------- ___ ---- 1,498 ( 5.4% ) ---------- 202 ( 7.5% )
09/17/22 -------- ___ ------ 356 ( 7.0% ) ---------- 213 ( 10.1% )
09/24/22 -------- ___ ------ 196 ( 4.6% ) ----------- 74 ( 3.8% )
10/01/22 -------- ___-------- 96 ( 3.1% ) ----------- 92 ( 5.3% )
10/08/22 -------- ___ ------- 88 ( 3.0% ) ----------- 80 ( 3.7% )
10/15/22 -------- ___ ------- 53 ( 1.5% ) ---------- 128 ( 4.8% )
10/22/22 -------- ___ ------- 32 ( 1.3% ) ---------- 137 ( 5.3% )
10/29/22 -------- ___ ------- 27 ( 1.2% ) ---------- 126 ( 4.8% )
11/05/22 -------- ___ ------- 23 ( 1.2% ) ---------- 369 ( 8.1% )
11/12/22 -------- ___ ------- 18 ( 0.8% ) ---------- 488 ( 8.0% )
11/19/22 -------- ___ ------- 25 ( 1.2% ) ---------- 560 ( 6.0% )
11/26/22 -------- ___ ------- 13 ( 1.0% ) ---------- 304 ( 5.3% )
12/03/22 -------- ___ ------- 38 ( 2.3% ) ---------- 330 ( 7.7% )
12/10/22 -------- ___ ------- 30 ( 2.1% ) ---------- 255 ( 5.6% )
12/17/22 -------- ___ ------- 56 ( 2.8% ) ---------- 220 ( 6.8% )
01/07/23 -------- ___ ------ 937 ( 23.4% ) -------- 342 ( 7.5% )
01/14/23 -------- ___ ---- 1,077 ( 24.5% ) -------- 337 ( 11.4% )
01/21/23 -------- ___ ------ 937 ( 25.5% ) -------- 320 ( 4.7% )
01/28/23 ------- ___ ------- 954 ( 25.1% ) -------- 504 ( 5.7% )
02/04/23 ------- ___ ------- 424 ( 22.0% ) -------- 543 ( 6.7% )
02/11/23 ------- ___ ------- 274 ( 13.8% ) -------- 476 ( 13.1% )
02/18/23 ------- ___ -------- 97 ( 6.5% ) ----------- 61 ( 12.4% ) (2021 Feb snow storm)
02/25/23 ------- ___ -------- 51 ( 4.5% ) --------- 469 ( 13.1% )
03/04/23 ------- ___ -------- 29 ( 2.6% ) --------- 296 ( 27.9% )
03/11/23 ------- ___ -------- 19 ( 1.0% ) --------- 217 ( 13.0% )
03/18/23 ------- ___ --------- 3 ( 1.0% ) --------- 144 ( 9.0% )
03/25/23 ------- ___ -------- 20 ( 2.1% ) --------- 178 ( 6.8% )
04/01/23 ------- ___ -------- 23 ( 2.6% ) --------- 109 ( 6.2% )
04/08/23 ------- ___ -------- 51 ( 7.9% ) ---------- 64 ( 3.7% )
04/15/23 ------- ___ -------- 25 ( 4.5% ) ---------- 38 ( 2.5% )
04/22/23 ------- ___ -------- 30 ( 5.4% ) ---------- 22 ( 3.4% )
04/29/23 ------- ___ -------- 42 ( 8.7% ) ---------- 26 ( 2.3% )
05/06/23 ------- ___ -------- 55 ( 10.8% ) -------- 16 ( 1.5% )
05/13/23 ------- ___ -------- 65 ( 8.5% ) ----------- 9 ( 2.1% )
05/20/23 ------- ___ -------- 56 ( n/a ) ------------- 2 ( 1.7% )
05/27/23 ------- ___-------- 13 ( n/a ) -------------- 8 ( 1.8% )
06/03/23 ------- ___ ------- 17 ( n/a ) -------------- 4 ( 0.6% )
06/10/23 ------- ___-------- 18 ( n/a ) -------------- 5 ( 1.8% )
06/17/23 ------- ___ ------- 23 ( n/a ) -------------- 3 ( 2.1% )
06/24/23 ------- ___ ------- 32 ( n/a ) -------------- 3 ( 1.6% )
Nosmo
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AG
COVID-19 Total Fatalities by County per state spreadsheet 03-07-2020 to 07-12-2022 at 9:30 AM CST

By death certificate date of death.

JAN 2021 = 58
FEB 2021 = 25
MAR 2021 = 18
APR 2021= 11
MAY 2021 = 5
JUN 2021 = 3
JUL 2021 = 6
AUG 2021 = 36
SEP 2021 = 35
OCT 2021 = 15
NOV 2021 = 4
DEC 2021 = 5
JAN 2022 = 28
FEB 2022 = 16
MAR 2022 = 3
APR 2022 = 3
MAY 2022 =4

JUN 2022 = 1
06/03/22 # 418

Zero "NEW" reported by state in last 7 days (3rd week in a row).
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,493 (+77) confirmed cases, 6,488 (+31) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/12/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,022 (+2) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/12/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,248 (+2). The number of additional doses given is 46,501 (+26). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.73% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 40 (+1); 7.51% of total hospital capacity as of 7/11/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 40
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 39
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 1
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 8
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 1
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,597 (+104) confirmed cases, 6,515 (+27) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/13/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,042 (+20) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/13/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,263 (+15). The number of additional doses given is 46,546 (+45). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.74% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 34 (-6); 6.37% of total hospital capacity as of 7/12/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 34
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 33
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 1
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 9
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 0

lockett93
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AG
15 people discharged (9 admits, -6 in hospital) and 0 on vents…. I hope none due to deaths.
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,698 (+101) confirmed cases, 6,554 (+39) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/14/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,067 (+25) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/14/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,263 (+0). The number of additional doses given is 46,589 (+43). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.74% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 30 (-4); 5.57% of total hospital capacity as of 7/13/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 30
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 29
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 1
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 8
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 0
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,802 (+104) confirmed cases, 6,593 (+39) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/15/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,086 (+21) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/15/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,270 (+7). The number of additional doses given is 46,620 (+31). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.74% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 30 (-0); 5.47% of total hospital capacity as of 7/14/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 30
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 28
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 2
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 9
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 1
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,897 (+95) confirmed cases, 6,638 (+45) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/16/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,117 (+31) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/16/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,282 (+12). The number of additional doses given is 46,659 (+39). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.75% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 41 (+11); 7.57% of total hospital capacity as of 7/15/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 41
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 37
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 4
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 9
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 1
oldyeller
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AG
MiMi said:

Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,897 (+95) confirmed cases, 6,638 (+45) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/16/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,117 (+31) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/16/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,282 (+12). The number of additional doses given is 46,659 (+39). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.75% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 41 (+11); 7.57% of total hospital capacity as of 7/15/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 41
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 37
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 4
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 9
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 1

Is there an error in reporting, or am I missing something, such as cases developing among those already admitted for other reasons? Looks like a jump from 30 to 41 "Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital" over the last 24 hours, but only 9 new admissions in that same period.
new straw
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Patients at some hospitals locally get tested weekly. I don't believe visiting policies have changed, so visitors could be bringing it in.

Edit to add: visiting policies have been at pre pandemic policy for quite awhile.
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 58,953 (+56) confirmed cases, 6,649 (+11) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/17/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,139 (+22) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/17/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,291 (+9). The number of additional doses given is 46,694 (+35). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.75% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 37 (-4); 6.78% of total hospital capacity as of 7/16/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 37
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 33
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 4
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 6
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 0
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 59,029 (+76) confirmed cases, 6,655 (+6) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/18/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,149 (+10) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/18/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,294 (+3). The number of additional doses given is 46,716 (+22). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.75% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 47 (+10); 8.82% of total hospital capacity as of 7/17/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 47
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 43
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 4
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 12
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 0
Nosmo
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AG
COVID-19 Total Fatalities by County per state spreadsheet 03-07-2020 to 07-19-2022 at 9:30 AM CST

By death certificate date of death.

JAN 2021 = 58
FEB 2021 = 25
MAR 2021 = 18
APR 2021= 11
MAY 2021 = 5
JUN 2021 = 3
JUL 2021 = 6
AUG 2021 = 36
SEP 2021 = 35
OCT 2021 = 15
NOV 2021 = 4
DEC 2021 = 5
JAN 2022 = 28
FEB 2022 = 16
MAR 2022 = 3
APR 2022 = 3
MAY 2022 =4

JUN 2022 = 1
06/03/22 # 418

Zero "NEW" reported by state in last 7 days (4th week in a row).
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 59,090 (+61) confirmed cases, 6,689 (+34) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/19/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,164 (+15) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/19/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,303 (+9). The number of additional doses given is 46,740 (+24). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.76% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 47 (+0); 8.69% of total hospital capacity as of 7/18/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 47
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 41
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 6
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 10
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 0
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 59,173 (+83) confirmed cases, 6,709 (+20) probable cases, 418 (+0) deaths as of 7/20/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,180 (+16) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/20/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,319 (+16). The number of additional doses given is 46,761 (+21). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.76% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 62 (+0); 11.79% of total hospital capacity as of 7/19/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 62
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 55
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 7
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 11
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 5
trouble
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AG
With those vent numbers, I'm guessing this is another round of elderly patients. Hopefully they are all able to come off.
maroon barchetta
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FlyRod
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These numbers are right in line with the national trend as BA.5 becomes dominant. Hopefully they will peak soon.
MiMi
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S
Current DSHS Brazos County numbers: 59,259 (+86) confirmed cases, 6,741 (+32) probable cases, 419 (+1) deaths as of 7/21/22.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 137,208 (+28) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/21/22. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 119,337 (+18). The number of additional doses given is 46,784 (+23). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 51.77% of Brazos County residents (6 months and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 52 (-10); 9.65% of total hospital capacity as of 7/20/22

FYI:
Region N (2020 Population Estimate - 362,495)
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Hospital - 52
Adult COVID-19 Patients in General Beds - 47
Adult COVID-19 Patients in ICU Beds - 5
Pediatric COVID-19 Patients in Hospitals - 0
Confirmed COVID-19 Admissions Previous 24 Hrs - 4
Confirmed COVID-19 Patients on Ventilators - 1
maroon barchetta
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Where did those vent patients go? The other numbers don't really support them going to regular rooms unless a lot of other regular room patients were discharged.
dubi
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AG
maroon barchetta said:

Where did those vent patients go? The other numbers don't really support them going to regular rooms unless a lot of other regular room patients were discharged.
You can go from ICU to a step down unit that gives more care than a regular room.
Rapier108
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maroon barchetta said:

Where did those vent patients go? The other numbers don't really support them going to regular rooms unless a lot of other regular room patients were discharged.
Given what we've seen with the numbers many times before, a glitch/error is always very possible.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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