Is B-CS going through a recession?

33,296 Views | 232 Replies | Last: 9 yr ago by dgonzo99
TellMeMore
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One thing to consider, in using New Braunfels as an example, they have I-35. Check the zip codes of the people eating in those establishments on a Wednesday night let's say. Probably not a lot of locals. B-CS pretty much has to play with the cards we are dealt for many days each year. That's where B-CS becomes a "small, but growing" area. Thus strip malls with nail shops is what we get with your occasional Salt Grass or the like. Population density does match the model needed for the Pappas family to be ready to go full steam into here, or while Sprouts might have tapped the brakes on their plans too. In the big picture rooftops will have to be the answer, because pass though traffic is not as likely to stop 90 miles out of Houston, no matter which way they are travelling.
techno-ag
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AG
quote:
One thing to consider, in using New Braunfels as an example, they have I-35. Check the zip codes of the people eating in those establishments on a Wednesday night let's say. Probably not a lot of locals. B-CS pretty much has to play with the cards we are dealt for many days each year. That's where B-CS becomes a "small, but growing" area. Thus strip malls with nail shops is what we get with your occasional Salt Grass or the like. Population density does match the model needed for the Pappas family to be ready to go full steam into here, or while Sprouts might have tapped the brakes on their plans too. In the big picture rooftops will have to be the answer, because pass though traffic is not as likely to stop 90 miles out of Houston, no matter which way they are travelling.
As per some prior discussions on here in years past, BCS does serve as the retail locus for 7 surrounding counties, serving a grand total of something like 250,000 people. These people shop and dine and work in the area. It's not pass through traffic, it's regional traffic. We are the largest city area between Waco and Houston.
dgonzo99
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Re comments made earlier about CVS in Bryan and Atlas Project at Traditions

I have been by CVS twice today at totally different times, and both times the parking lot was full. And as far as Atlas, ground work has started for the The Stella Hotel. Also, the developers are asking for a rezoning on part of the project. I really don't think they would spend the money to get a rezoning for nothing. St. Joseph is building a senior center out there too. Just check the WTAW website. No, there is no recession in BCS. Just another post just to stir up controversy.
RGRAg1/75
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AG
Maybe New Braunfels isn't the best comparison, but it's not far off. You can also look at the areas east of pflugerville and round rock near toll road 130 (which is NOT heavily trafficked - yet).

Bottom line is CSTAT could be doing a MUCH better job with tower point/cap rock. In my opinion it is leaving much to be desired. We shouldn't need to go as far north as University to have more than one option for a sit down meal. A lot of discretionary income resides in south CSTAT.
techno-ag
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AG
quote:
Maybe New Braunfels isn't the best comparison, but it's not far off. You can also look at the areas east of pflugerville and round rock near toll road 130 (which is NOT heavily trafficked - yet).

Bottom line is CSTAT could be doing a MUCH better job with tower point/cap rock. In my opinion it is leaving much to be desired. We shouldn't need to go as far north as University to have more than one option for a sit down meal. A lot of discretionary income resides in south CSTAT.
A lot of discretionary income may reside in SoCo, but people have nowhere to earn it and few places to spend it without driving north. And as for those earning 6 figure money from A&M, they won't be earning money working at home. They'll be driving north to campus almost daily. So, restaurants along Restaurant Row and elsewhere will continue to enjoy SoCo money, while the neighborhoods in SoCo and Wellborn will enjoy residents driving home in the evenings to sleep.

There's little else in SoCo besides houses. It'll prolly stay that way for years to come. It's basically the bedroom community for BCS.
KidDoc
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AG
quote:
Maybe New Braunfels isn't the best comparison, but it's not far off. You can also look at the areas east of pflugerville and round rock near toll road 130 (which is NOT heavily trafficked - yet).

Bottom line is CSTAT could be doing a MUCH better job with tower point/cap rock. In my opinion it is leaving much to be desired. We shouldn't need to go as far north as University to have more than one option for a sit down meal. A lot of discretionary income resides in south CSTAT.
Have you tried Luigi's or Azure on Rock Prairie? Both pretty good sit down places closer to Tower Point. Cotton Patch is not too terrible either.

Sure the two on Rock Prairie aren't chains, but they are still decent!
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RGRAg1/75
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AG
Wait - are you saying that the other mid-level markets in the state keep all their restaurants & retail between the work place and the home? If that's what you're saying, I would have to disagree.
RGRAg1/75
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AG
Azure is pretty decent. Luigis leaves something to be desired IMO.

Look, I'm not saying we have zero options. I am saying what the developers have done with tower point/cap rock is half assed. Again, IMO.

Edit to add: that cotton patch blows!!
TellMeMore
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Azure is pretty good for sit down sushi, I like Atami better......but back to why Tower Point looks like it does. New businesses was a fast ROI, thus massage, nail and yogurt shops. No one needs a 101 on what it takes to open a sit down restaurant and survive the first year. The chains have a template and God help a chef owned store. The first year would keep me up nights. B-CS is a mid market, gonna have to wait for some stuff even in the best of times.
techno-ag
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AG
quote:
Wait - are you saying that the other mid-level markets in the state keep all their restaurants & retail between the work place and the home? If that's what you're saying, I would have to disagree.
Are the other mid-level markets roughly equa-distance between Houston/Austin/Waco & DFW/San Antonio?
RGRAg1/75
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AG
Techno - trying to understand which POV you are taking here. Honestly. You say at the top of this page:

quote:
As per some prior discussions on here in years past, BCS does serve as the retail locus for 7 surrounding counties, serving a grand total of something like 250,000 people. These people shop and dine and work in the area. It's not pass through traffic, it's regional traffic. We are the largest city area between Waco and Houston.


But then you challenge me when I contend (paraphrasing both of us here) S CSTAT has enough households with enough discretionary income to support a more robust development at tower point/cap rock.

If I'm misunderstanding you, my bad.

I will try to better support my own argument. I agree with the post above about our market being better suited for franchise operations. Frankly, I enjoy going to downtown Bryan for Maddens and Mr. Gs, and I'm not saying we need a christophers or Republic at Tower Point.

But a carrabas, or one of the Pappas or another Mexican restaurant, etc would do just fine there. And it would be great to balance out the ratio of fast food to dine-in places there. Some of the most high end developments are in south CSTAT and we shouldn't be limited to which fast food chain we want in that area.

Last time I checked, an unbalanced ratio of fast food to dine-in skewed heavily to the former belongs in low income areas and/or closer to the college student population.

techno-ag
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AG
quote:
But a carrabas, or one of the Pappas or another Mexican restaurant, etc would do just fine there. And it would be great to balance out the ratio of fast food to dine-in places there. Some of the most high end developments are in south CSTAT and we shouldn't be limited to which fast food chain we want in that area.

Last time I checked, an unbalanced ratio of fast food to dine-in skewed heavily to the former belongs in low income areas and/or closer to the college student population.
Certainly more fine dining anywhere in BCS is welcome. This week alone, my family drove south and we ate at Saltgrass and had a great time there.

However, proximity to housing is not the only parameter restaurants look at. Lunch crowds from employers are important. Traffic off Texas or the bypass is important. Visibility from existing traffic flow is important. I'd say southies should consider other factors besides just a SoCo location are important for new restaurants.
dgonzo99
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quote:
quote:
But a carrabas, or one of the Pappas or another Mexican restaurant, etc would do just fine there. And it would be great to balance out the ratio of fast food to dine-in places there. Some of the most high end developments are in south CSTAT and we shouldn't be limited to which fast food chain we want in that area.

Last time I checked, an unbalanced ratio of fast food to dine-in skewed heavily to the former belongs in low income areas and/or closer to the college student population.
Certainly more fine dining anywhere in BCS is welcome. This week alone, my family drove south and we ate at Saltgrass and had a great time there.

However, proximity to housing is not the only parameter restaurants look at. Lunch crowds from employers are important. Traffic off Texas or the bypass is important. Visibility from existing traffic flow is important. I'd say southies should consider other factors besides just a SoCo location are important for new restaurants.
I would love to just have any new restaurants in West Bryan. I work in that area. Just trying to get into the very small Wings is a major obstacle unless you decide to eat after 2:00pm. Fast food, except a small few nice restaurants, pretty much rules the twin cities. Especially tacos hamburgers and chinese food.
FlyRod
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And the quality of those three foods descends in that order.
MaysAggie2015
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It's the truth.....
PS3D
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Well, we'll see. In the answer to my main question, the answer is "No, it just sucks", though I feel that when it has sucked less is in times of economic prosperity.

There will probably never be an impact of a Post Oak Mall again, though.
Tanya 93
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Columbia is around the same size as CS.

We got a giant jump in variety when we moved here. I can't get how this place, in the meth state, can have the variety it does, but CS gets fast food and Mexican.

It really just must be the people. Everyone there says they want variety, but Cheddars has lines out the door and something slightly different lasts a couple of months.

If people want the places in South CS, you have to show there is a want for them.

This place has 3 Mediterranean, a Polish, and God knows how many South Asian places.

Burgers make money there. Fine dining rarely does.
FlyRod
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Veritas, Christopher's, Madden's and Republic are doing well. Shiraz and Babylon Cafe doing well. Taz Indian doing well. Mad Taco, Torchy's are great additions. Two Central American places: Tienda la Union and Centro Americo. Two wine bars (Downtown Uncorked and Knox Gallery).

Yep we could do better, but we've come a long way. And we'll get better still.
RGRAg1/75
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AG
Columbia is 2-3x all of BCS. Urban is around 550k and metro north of 800k. It's also the capital and largest city in the state. Apples and oranges.

Regarding the comment about "showing we want it," I'm not aware of a restaurant closing south of Rock Praire in the last several years.
RGRAg1/75
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AG
quote:
I'd say southies should consider other factors besides just a SoCo location are important for new restaurants.


Southies? Lol. Now I understand your bias...
Tanya 93
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quote:
Columbia is 2-3x all of BCS. Urban is around 550k and metro north of 800k. It's also the capital and largest city in the state. Apples and oranges.

Regarding the comment about "showing we want it," I'm not aware of a restaurant closing south of Rock Praire in the last several years.



Columbia, MO is not. I thought everyone knew I was there. The variety here is something BCS can only dream about right now.

And if people want variety, why do so many places that are different fail?
Tanya 93
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quote:
Veritas, Christopher's, Madden's and Republic are doing well. Shiraz and Babylon Cafe doing well. Taz Indian doing well. Mad Taco, Torchy's are great additions. Two Central American places: Tienda la Union and Centro Americo. Two wine bars (Downtown Uncorked and Knox Gallery).

Yep we could do better, but we've come a long way. And we'll get better still.


And how many have died in 8 years?
FlyRod
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Restaurants fail everywhere. I have a lot of friends in the bar and restaurant biz in Austin and Houston and could cite a very long list of failures and closures there. We are not unique...at least in that regard.
PS3D
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quote:
Columbia is 2-3x all of BCS. Urban is around 550k and metro north of 800k. It's also the capital and largest city in the state. Apples and oranges.

Regarding the comment about "showing we want it," I'm not aware of a restaurant closing south of Rock Praire in the last several years.


That's because it's all relatively new. There's almost no business there that is older than 15 years.
RGRAg1/75
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AG
Pardon my error. Thought you were talking about Columbia, SC.
Tanya 93
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quote:
Restaurants fail everywhere.


And yet Applebee's remains.

I lived there almost 25 years. I know how dining is there. People aren't supporting what they often claim to want.
FlyRod
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I'm currently in Tucson AZ and brought this up with my hosts. They are rattling off a massive list of "interesting places" that have opened and closed in just a few years.
RGRAg1/75
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AG
Ok, not many fans of south CSTAT on this thread. No worries.

The point remains the same. From a GROWTH perspective, rock prairie and points south are (and have been) growing exponentially the last five years. I would have to dig it up, but our commissioner published some statistics due to a railroad concern in my area that showed the rate of growth south is faster than any of the other area in the county.

I don't care if it's only been 5 yrs or 15. Tower Point could support a much more robust development of retail and dine-in restaurants. HEB, Walgreens, lowes and McDonald's all spend more on market research to understand traffic patterns and spending patterns, etc, than about 90% other businesses. They know where to put in new locations. And guess what, others usually follow. But in this case, it was just the Taco Bell following mcds and whataburger/chickfila ensuring they keep market share down here.
PS3D
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quote:
quote:
Restaurants fail everywhere.


And yet Applebee's remains.

I lived there almost 25 years. I know how dining is there. People aren't supporting what they often claim to want.


Reality check: Applebee's restaurants are everywhere, and there's only one in town, so there is no way that they are cannibalizing other restaurants to a significant degree. Same with Golden Corral, or Olive Garden.
Tanya 93
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quote:
quote:
quote:
Restaurants fail everywhere.


And yet Applebee's remains.

I lived there almost 25 years. I know how dining is there. People aren't supporting what they often claim to want.


Reality check: Applebee's restaurants are everywhere, and there's only one in town, so there is no way that they are cannibalizing other restaurants to a significant degree. Same with Golden Corral, or Olive Garden.
Okay.
I am simply saying CS doesn't seem to support the variety this board says it wants.
Costa and Andreas
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It's well known in the development community that as it pertains to full service, this is a one store town. That will likely change within 5 years as we are in the 250k population threshold. That's a magic number.
techno-ag
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AG
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
Restaurants fail everywhere.


And yet Applebee's remains.

I lived there almost 25 years. I know how dining is there. People aren't supporting what they often claim to want.


Reality check: Applebee's restaurants are everywhere, and there's only one in town, so there is no way that they are cannibalizing other restaurants to a significant degree. Same with Golden Corral, or Olive Garden.
Okay.
I am simply saying CS doesn't seem to support the variety this board says it wants.
Gotta agree with Tanya on this one. That statement is gold.
PS3D
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quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
Restaurants fail everywhere.


And yet Applebee's remains.

I lived there almost 25 years. I know how dining is there. People aren't supporting what they often claim to want.


Reality check: Applebee's restaurants are everywhere, and there's only one in town, so there is no way that they are cannibalizing other restaurants to a significant degree. Same with Golden Corral, or Olive Garden.
Okay.
I am simply saying CS doesn't seem to support the variety this board says it wants.


By "support", the demographics are unfavorable, or "support" meaning "just don't go for"?

I dare say, in the last 10 years (if not longer), we've never lost an "interesting" business (chain, unique concept) that wasn't suffering as a chain (Albertsons, TGI Fridays come to mind).

While I know the "This town only likes fried chicken and hamburgers" schtick is popular, better things are popular if they do come.
Tanya 93
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Oh

I guess all those places that closed just weren't the type of food people want even though they say they want it.
MaysAggie2015
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