Howdy, hate posting this, my weather guy was crying giving this forecast. Looks VERY, VERY bad for Florida! Pray!
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
Cat 4 to 5 Hurricane Heading to Florida
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Last: 4 hrs ago by AgLA06
Watching the weather channel right now. The models they just showed are predicting category 2 or 3. Really hard to predict so far out and it hasn't formed an eye yet. Dry air coming with this cool front could affect it.
The initial forecast has it at around low cat 3 at landfall.
The big worry is that if it dives east, like storms have in recent years, Tampa could face a near worst case scenario. They've gotten lucky for a century but at some point that luck will run out. A storm from the south would force all the water into the bay and the surge would reach miles inland, it's potentially as bad a scenario as New Orleans.
The big worry is that if it dives east, like storms have in recent years, Tampa could face a near worst case scenario. They've gotten lucky for a century but at some point that luck will run out. A storm from the south would force all the water into the bay and the surge would reach miles inland, it's potentially as bad a scenario as New Orleans.
track forecast much more accurate than forecasting intensity.
Crying about a forecast?
Latest NHC rollup shows it making landfall as a Cat 2... ?
Not good
It's barely a depression right now. Let's tap the brakes on the fear porn.
BowSowy said:
Crying about a forecast?
Pooooooooooooossssyyyy
BowSowy said:
Crying about a forecast?
Most meteorologists are liberals so that makes sense
Almost as gay as this:BowSowy said:
Crying about a forecast?
We talkin' about a forecast!?!?Sea Speed said:BowSowy said:
Crying about a forecast?
Pooooooooooooossssyyyy
Florida, several hurricanes ago.
That is freaking hilarious
oragator said:
The initial forecast has it at around low cat 3 at landfall.
The big worry is that if it dives east, like storms have in recent years, Tampa could face a near worst case scenario. They've gotten lucky for a century but at some point that luck will run out. A storm from the south would force all the water into the bay and the surge would reach miles inland, it's potentially as bad a scenario as New Orleans.
Is Tampa downtown, below sea level and is there a levee that could break and flood said downtown?
https://i.postimg.cc/rpHKr9JQ/IMG-0770.jpg
Already upgraded to a major in the NHC graphics. Several models showing Cat 5akaggie05 said:
Latest NHC rollup shows it making landfall as a Cat 2... ?
I am still seeing it's technically still storm nine and hasn't been officially named yet. By all indicators it will become hurricane Helene but models show a cat 1-3 so far. Could go higher, too early to tell.
Media always tries to get everyone riled up with every storm talking about worst case scenarios. Yes it's good to plan around worst case but you have to be realistic with the current models.
Media always tries to get everyone riled up with every storm talking about worst case scenarios. Yes it's good to plan around worst case but you have to be realistic with the current models.
I'm only seeing Cat 2-3 and nothing more, from places i've trusted for years/decades. Not sure where this Cat 4-5 stuff is coming from unless maybe guys looking for Youtube clicks/views. Hope i'm right.
smstork1007 said:
I'm only seeing Cat 2-3 and nothing more, from places i've trusted for years/decades. Not sure where this Cat 4-5 stuff is coming from unless maybe guys looking for Youtube clicks/views. Hope i'm right.
The real question is, who is your weather guy?
Looks like it's now expected to be a 3 or 4. Veremos!
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."
Mark Twain
Mark Twain
These guys are usually pretty dang good. Same guys that do space city weather.
https://theeyewall.com/
https://theeyewall.com/
Critical word in that graph is "potential".
I was simply responding to a poster who said he had no idea where the cat 4/5 stuff was coming from. It's not just from click hounds on the internet. Levi Cowen is anything but that.
Nevertheless, intensity forecasts are far trickier than track forecasts but there are models out there having it as a 4 or 5. Only God Himself knows how it will actually play out.
[edit]: and this from today's NHC forecast discussion at 5pm EDT:
Once again, the statistical RI guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.
Nevertheless, intensity forecasts are far trickier than track forecasts but there are models out there having it as a 4 or 5. Only God Himself knows how it will actually play out.
[edit]: and this from today's NHC forecast discussion at 5pm EDT:
Once again, the statistical RI guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.
The same guys who can't get the forecast correct 24 hours in advance?
Yeah, I'd trust them.
Yeah, I'd trust them.
just glad its not coming to Htown again, we dont need another one this year. we got to spread these things around if they are coming anyway
I'm here in FL for a business trip till Friday. Fully prepared to stay a day or two extra if air travel is affected. Bright and sunny looking out towards gulf right now. You can feel the energy and buzz as people prepare though. I'm on 18th floor of hotel facing west. From latest models I am sitting south of the projected path but if it kicks west closer to Tampa...
Not my first hurricane. Kind of excited...but I also don't have any personal property here in danger. Prayers for those that do.
Not my first hurricane. Kind of excited...but I also don't have any personal property here in danger. Prayers for those that do.
RIP ATMHockey
Raining like a SOB in QR right now. Looks like Cancun is gonna get the western "eye wall". Looks like some models now have it crossing Yucatan before turning north.
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."
Mark Twain
Mark Twain
Going to hit the armpit of Florida, similar to Debby. Won't be a big deal.
It's going up right Tallahassees P Diddy
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."
Mark Twain
Mark Twain
Flying into MIA tomorrow. Just hope no crazy travel issues. Shouldn't be too eventful there just shoddy weather unfortunately. Hoping for the best for the panhandle.
Headed to ATL then Naples on Saturday morning need this storm to be bye bye.
The storm surge on this thing could get wicked
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Could use the rain though.
never waste a crisis...
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