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Time for a hurricane thread?

105,184 Views | 618 Replies | Last: 17 days ago by ABATTBQ11
Tailgate88
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12:16p, 7/3/24
AG
I predict this is going to be a very active thread for the next few months...
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AgGrad99
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In reply to txags92 • 12:22p, 7/3/24
AG
txags92 said:
AgGrad99 said:
I never want damage along the coast...but Texas pretty much relies on these type of storms to come through periodically...these days more than ever with our booming population.

Several of the largest rain producers in Texas history (not talking about Harvey) were very weak storms (depressions, TS, or Cat 1) and did very little wind or storm surge damage along the coast, but dumped huge amounts of rain inland. We could use one of those in the Hill Country right now to start refilling some lakes.
Yeah, I didnt mean they have to be damaging storms. My point is that we rely on gulf storms when we can get them.

Hoping for lots of rain and little damage!
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txags92
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In reply to Old Sarge • 12:43p, 7/3/24
AG
Old Sarge said:
No offense, but I hope your "lean" is waaayyy off, and success in prediction at this point fails miserably.
Totally agree. I would rather see it come in farther south and weaker, then turn north and sit over the hill country for a while.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Tailgate88 • 12:52p, 7/3/24
AG
Tailgate88 said:
I predict this is going to be a very active thread for the next few months...
Projected to be one of the most active years on record, so far...looks like it may happen.
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txags92
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In reply to Old Sarge • 1:31p, 7/3/24
AG
Old Sarge said:
No offense, but I hope your "lean" is waaayyy off, and success in prediction at this point fails miserably.
Interestingly, the GFS and HWRF 12z runs have moved quite a bit to the south and both show it coming in around the mouth of the Rio Grande. The GFS is now closer to the Euro in predicting a weaker storm in the gulf, while the HWRF is showing a much stronger storm at landfall.

Given the strength the storm is currently showing in the face of what was supposed to be a less favorable environment near and beyond Jamaica, and the NHC now forecasting it to remain a Cat 3 to just beyond the Caymans, it is surprising to me to see the two major models forecasting it to be weaker in the Gulf. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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lazuras_dc
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 1:59p, 7/3/24
AG
P.U.T.U said:
Tailgate88 said:
I predict this is going to be a very active thread for the next few months...
Projected to be one of the most active years on record, so far...looks like it may happen.
I feel like the meteorologists say this most years. I don't not believe you guys, but it's always a "we'll see" for me.
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TikkaShooter
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In reply to lazuras_dc • 2:06p, 7/3/24
The high quality research centers don't do it.

But Twitter "weathermen" have to hype up every storm to get follows, and somehow these click bait chasers get labeled as meteorologists.

That part I simply don't understand.
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Furlock Bones
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In reply to TikkaShooter • 2:12p, 7/3/24
AG
The big thing this year is how hot the Atlantic and gulf are at this point in the season. We are way early for these water temps.
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B-1 83
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3:32p, 7/3/24
AG
I humbly beseeched staph to sticky this thread for the season.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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SteveBott
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3:47p, 7/3/24
AG
This goes here
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txags92
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3:51p, 7/3/24
AG
Levi's video for today is up. Looks like Kingston dodged a bullet so far, but the south coast of Jamaica is getting the northern eyewall. Going to be lots of flooding and mudslides in Jamaica.

As far as Texas, it looks like the models are coming closer to each other around a Brownsville landfall, but there is still a lot of uncertainty this far out, particularly regarding the strength, which will affect the track across the gulf.

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Bayou City
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8:07p, 7/3/24
JP and his family are evacuating to Cancun. The current track goes almost directly over their house.
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Bayou City • 8:13p, 7/3/24
AG
I'm supposed to be in Cancun in 2.5 weeks. Hopefully this isn't a devastating storm for them
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Tailgate88
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 8:26p, 7/3/24
AG
ttha_aggie_09 said:
I'm supposed to be in Cancun in 2.5 weeks. Hopefully this isn't a devastating storm for them


Ummmm…
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SteveBott
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 8:31p, 7/3/24
AG
Ummm I might have bad news for you
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to SteveBott • 8:35p, 7/3/24
AG
I mean it's obviously going to hit them but I'm trying to see if it's reschedule because it's bad or if it is not that bad.
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SteveBott
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 8:39p, 7/3/24
AG
Just take a brisket with you. You can Que on the beach
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Bayou City
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 9:10p, 7/3/24
I don't think it'll be too bad. It's mostly tracking south so Cancun won't bear the brunt of the storm. A lot of Tulum is evacuating to Cancun.
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one safe place
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In reply to Ogre09 • 10:12p, 7/3/24
Ogre09 said:
one safe place said:
TikkaShooter said:
Quote:
The only downside is one of the guys is a huge global warming nut.


Link to this on the eye wall?
If you read the daily posts on Space City Weather (same guys do the Eye Wall) he often will say something like "due to the effects of climate change." Or "this is the result of climate change." Not sure if he (or they) do the same thing on the Eye Wall, but it is not uncommon on Space City Weather.

More than once people have chastised him for it in the comments and he does not like it much at all when they do.


I wouldn't call him a huge global warming nut. I think he looks at data and interprets it as it makes sense to him. He doesn't completely avoid the topic, but it's not like it's ever his main focus. If you're triggered by the phrase then you might get upset occasionally reading that site.
Not triggered by the phrase, but not a fan of those who attribute things to global warming no matter what it is. He can have his own interpretations, just like anyone else, but when someone utters the global warming tripe, their opinion means less to me than the opinion of someone not caught up in that crap. Same would be true if they were a Bigfoot believer or a flat earther.
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JB!98
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11:02p, 7/3/24
AG


Give me this one. Preferably the red one. The dirty side of the storm on the North and rain for us and the hill country. This may be what we have been looking for and a shift a little more North shift would be fine with me.
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ABATTBQ11
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1:00p, 7/4/24
AG
New blog post up. I've found these very helpful.



I'm a little worried that it shifts farther north and cuts back east instead of getting south Texas.
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B-1 83
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 1:10p, 7/4/24
AG
What a great blog!
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to B-1 83 • 1:20p, 7/4/24
AG
Yeah someone posted it a couple of pages back, and it's been really good. The detail is top notch.
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carl spacklers hat
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In reply to JB!98 • 2:09p, 7/4/24
I'd take the red track, too. Need the rain in the Rio Grande watershed in a bad way.

TVCX would be my second choice.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
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SteveBott
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2:16p, 7/4/24
AG
Most rain is on the north side of the storm so king ranch is a good spot
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Mark Fairchild
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3:21p, 7/4/24
AG
Praying that it DOES NOT make landfall in Rockport.
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
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Mark Fairchild
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 3:24p, 7/4/24
AG
Thank you for this blog. It has been very informative. We are watching it closely. It will help us when we decide to stay or leave. Again, thank you.
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
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Canyon99
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3:35p, 7/4/24
AG
I hope no one is significantly affected and it gives the Hill Country good rains. Green track, please.
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Bayou City
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In reply to Canyon99 • 4:44p, 7/4/24
It's going right over JustPanda's new house. They've been there for less than 2 months. Their house is expected to get storm surge of 3+ meters which means if it stays on the current track it would completely wash them out.

Send them some prayers.
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maroon barchetta
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4:48p, 7/4/24
DargelSkout
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In reply to Mark Fairchild • 4:52p, 7/4/24
AG
Mark Fairchild said:
Praying that it DOES NOT make landfall in Rockport.

Likewise, we were planning on heading down to our house on Sunday and staying for a week. We're watching it closely too. I might just have to run down and lock everything down then had back home.
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Mark Fairchild
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In reply to DargelSkout • 5:11p, 7/4/24
AG
We are just waiting for late tomorrow's and Saturday's forecast. We survived Harvey. Be careful and God's protection cover you.
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
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Mark Fairchild
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In reply to DargelSkout • 5:13p, 7/4/24
AG
We live in Rockport Country Club and we did fairly well with Harvey, but it was absolutely devastating to all of Rockport. Just didn't want to ever have to deal with this again.
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
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Mark Fairchild
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In reply to Bayou City • 5:15p, 7/4/24
AG
Will absolutely be praying for them.
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Mark Fairchild • 5:22p, 7/4/24
AG
Mark Fairchild said:
We live in Rockport Country Club and we did fairly well with Harvey, but it was absolutely devastating to all of Rockport. Just didn't want to ever have to deal with this again.


In-laws live in Aransas Pass. They did ok, some minor roof damage, some downed trees and a busted gate. But I would prefer not to repeat my wife not being able to get ahold of her parents because the cell service/power/etc was out.
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