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Time for a hurricane thread?

105,208 Views | 618 Replies | Last: 17 days ago by ABATTBQ11
AgGrad99
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Mexico has been in desperate need of water. Between last month and this pending storm, looks like their prayers are getting answered.

Sure hope we get some moisture from it.
Duckhook
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Official forecast still has it as a tropical storm coming in just south of the RGV. But everything seems to be trending north with each new update.
[url=https://ibb.co/LpvX381][/url]
Ogre09
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They say there's a 60-70% chance the eye of the storm is somewhere inside the 4-5 day cone. So there's a 30-40% chance the eye moves outside the cone, and the effects of the storm can be pretty far outside the eye.
Duckhook
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Ogre09 said:

They say there's a 60-70% chance the eye of the storm is somewhere inside the 4-5 day cone. So there's a 30-40% chance the eye moves outside the cone, and the effects of the storm can be pretty far outside the eye.

Yep. I live in the RGV probably 30 miles directly from the coast so I'm always pretty tuned in this time of year.
ABATTBQ11
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Really hoping for a lot of rain from this one. Like others have said, it sucks for the coast, but we desperately need the rain for the lakes and aquifer.
SteveBott
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Like I said the yukatan peninsula could knock it down and if comes in as a tropical storm on south Texas it would be perfect. The coast can handle a TS not a cat 3 plus.
ABATTBQ11
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I think the problem is that if the Yucatan knocks it down, it likely stays too far south to do us much good. Only tracks where it maintains strength over the Yucatan have it coming north. Right now it looks like we need it to stay strong to get anything, and that will probably suck for the coast.
txags92
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Levi Cowan just put his video up for today and he goes into some detail about the differences between the GFS and European tracks and intensity when it comes into the Gulf. It is a pretty good watch. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Independence H-D
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Travis Herzog new post....

https://abc13.com/tropicalupdate/
JB!98
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I am fascinated by these things. This thing was supposed to be sheared apart today. Winds still at 145kts with a closed eye. Hope Jamaica can break it up some. Prayers for those folks though.


These things make me think of a line from one of my favorite movies, Platoon: "Somewhere out there is the beast and he's hungry tonight."
Old Sarge
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ABATTBQ11 said:

I think the problem is that if the Yucatan knocks it down, it likely stays too far south to do us much good. Only tracks where it maintains strength over the Yucatan have it coming north. Right now it looks like we need it to stay strong to get anything, and that will probably suck for the coast.
And us on the coast, hope the Yucatan grinds it enough to weaken it for us tremendously, and hope you get something out of it to help some.
"Green" is the new RED.
Duckhook
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Old Sarge said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

I think the problem is that if the Yucatan knocks it down, it likely stays too far south to do us much good. Only tracks where it maintains strength over the Yucatan have it coming north. Right now it looks like we need it to stay strong to get anything, and that will probably suck for the coast.
And us on the coast, hope the Yucatan grinds it enough to weaken it for us tremendously, and hope you get something out of it to help some.

Amen
AggieKO
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Looks like it shifted ever so slightly back north according to the 10pm update.
TikkaShooter
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4am update seems to be placing S. Tx more and more in the cone of uncertainty.

Lots of variables remain. Still many days away. But this is feeling like a Texas rain maker of some kind.

https://abc13.com/tropicalupdate/
B-1 83
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They keep saying the stouter it is coming off the Yucatan the more it can fight north. It's sure narrowing down to between far N Mexico and Corpus. I wish no ill will towards my friends in the Nueces and Frio watersheds, but I hope you get 8" out of this.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Hamdog96
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I live on a Ranch in Kingsville… we already got 6 inches out of the last one. Its so green out here that deer won't even eat any feed (protein usually gets hammered). Complete opposite from the last couple of years.

Hoping the San Antone area gets some. My parents have a place on Canyon Lake and they are struggling over there.
Canyon Lake Agbu94
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Hamdog96 said:

I live on a Ranch in Kingsville… we already got 6 inches out of the last one. Its so green out here that deer won't even eat any feed (protein usually gets hammered). Complete opposite from the last couple of years.

Hoping the San Antone area gets some. My parents have a place on Canyon Lake and they are struggling over there.
Yes. We could use a a nice soaking rain or five. The lake needs a substantial recharge.
ABATTBQ11
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Wife's grandparents live on Canyon Lake. They're off a cove that normally has about 10'-12' of water in it, but it's so low that it's bone dry and the nearest water is several yards away.
Hamdog96
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Yep that's what I've heard. I think only 1 or 2 boat ramps are open. Was told it wasn't even worth putting the boat in because of how crammed the ramp gets.

Need this sucker to stall out over south central Texas. Don't want anything crazy over here because I worry about our farmers cotton crops.
maroon barchetta
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How is Lake Mathis?
Hamdog96
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Not good.. sitting at about 40 percent. Down 30 % from this time last year.

Grew up with a place on Mathis. Spent most summers there
maroon barchetta
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My dad and step-mom had a place there for almost 20 years. In Carmel Hills.

When we first moved them in, you sit on their pier and hang your feet in the water.

When they left in 2008 or so, you had to walk out past the end of the pier to get to the water.

Can't imagine it now after 2011 and last year.

I did summer camp in Boy Scouts there in maybe 1980 or so and it was a lot of fun in the lake.
ttha_aggie_09
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We need a slow soak with 6"+ or rain to recharge creeks and aquifers out west. I don't wish for hurricane damage on anyone but a TS that hits south and then stalls on west Texas would be perfect!
one safe place
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TikkaShooter said:

Quote:

The only downside is one of the guys is a huge global warming nut.


Link to this on the eye wall?
If you read the daily posts on Space City Weather (same guys do the Eye Wall) he often will say something like "due to the effects of climate change." Or "this is the result of climate change." Not sure if he (or they) do the same thing on the Eye Wall, but it is not uncommon on Space City Weather.

More than once people have chastised him for it in the comments and he does not like it much at all when they do.
Shoefly!
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BrazosDog02 said:

Pastures are dry, springs are slow. I'm good with any rainfall this can bring to the Hill Country. We've all been praying. We'll see.

Yep, Canyon Lake needs a turd floater!
Ogre09
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one safe place said:

TikkaShooter said:

Quote:

The only downside is one of the guys is a huge global warming nut.


Link to this on the eye wall?
If you read the daily posts on Space City Weather (same guys do the Eye Wall) he often will say something like "due to the effects of climate change." Or "this is the result of climate change." Not sure if he (or they) do the same thing on the Eye Wall, but it is not uncommon on Space City Weather.

More than once people have chastised him for it in the comments and he does not like it much at all when they do.


I wouldn't call him a huge global warming nut. I think he looks at data and interprets it as it makes sense to him. He doesn't completely avoid the topic, but it's not like it's ever his main focus. If you're triggered by the phrase then you might get upset occasionally reading that site.
Ragoo
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Shoefly! said:

BrazosDog02 said:

Pastures are dry, springs are slow. I'm good with any rainfall this can bring to the Hill Country. We've all been praying. We'll see.

Yep, Canyon Lake needs a turd floater!
I've been on canyon with the water high enough you could boat over cranes mill and see the park stop signs just out of the water.
1939
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Medina Lake is bone dry, really need a good 8-10 inches in Bandera County, looking good for at least beneficial rain as of now.
Fishing Fools
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Poor McKinney. RIP.


Mark Fairchild
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Rockport here and don't want this storm at all. Lived through Harvey, and that was a hurricane of a lifetime.
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
AgGrad99
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I never want damage along the coast...but Texas pretty much relies on these type of storms to come through periodically...these days more than ever with our booming population.

txags92
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AgGrad99 said:

I never want damage along the coast...but Texas pretty much relies on these type of storms to come through periodically...these days more than ever with our booming population.


Several of the largest rain producers in Texas history (not talking about Harvey) were very weak storms (depressions, TS, or Cat 1) and did very little wind or storm surge damage along the coast, but dumped huge amounts of rain inland. We could use one of those in the Hill Country right now to start refilling some lakes.

Unfortunately, the models seem to be splitting between GFS and HWRF showing a stronger storm and middle to upper coast landfall with a northerly track after landfall or the ECMWF showing a very weak storm going into northern Mexico and dying quickly down there.
txags92
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Right now, I am leaning towards the "stronger storm" models. The ECMWF has been showing the storm weaker than actual for about the last 2-3 days and according to Levi, there is a window before reaching the Yucatan where the shear is likely to relax and some restrengthening may occur. If the eye stays far enough south of Jamaica over the next few hours that the eyewall structures are not too disrupted, we are likely to see a Cat 2-3 approaching the Yucatan instead of the TS level storm forecast by the ECMWF. If that is the case, the stronger storm should continue to gain latitude and likely won't be significantly disrupted by the Yucatan, making the mid to upper coast models more likely IMO.
Old Sarge
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No offense, but I hope your "lean" is waaayyy off, and success in prediction at this point fails miserably.
"Green" is the new RED.
carl spacklers hat
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Shoefly! said:

BrazosDog02 said:

Pastures are dry, springs are slow. I'm good with any rainfall this can bring to the Hill Country. We've all been praying. We'll see.

Yep, Canyon Lake all of South Texas needs a turd floater!
FIFY
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
 
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