Updated tracks. Supposed to weaken though in the next 24-48 hours
Time for a hurricane thread?
105,085 Views |
618 Replies |
Last: 17 days ago by ABATTBQ11
lazuras_dc said:
Hoping for the blue track !
That first red one (now pink) is like "**** Houston in particular"
Headed to crystal beach Thursday. Was hoping to be able to get offshore Friday or Saturday, but this thing might mess with the swells
BrazosDog02 said:Hubert J. Farnsworth said:BrazosDog02 said:
Pastures are dry, springs are slow. I'm good with any rainfall this can bring to the Hill Country. We've all been praying. We'll see.
The western hill country needs it bad. Southwest Texas just hasn't had the rainfall totals needed over the last few years. Even the recent rains haven't been like other parts of the State. Irrigation wells in Medina and Uvalde counties are still starting to suck air. We need a flood to recharge the aquifer
Yep. Our spring fed creek is the lowest I or any of our local farmers have ever seen it and those guys lived through the 50's here. We thought one of our wells was dry but it turned out it was just the pump saver failed. The others are holding up fine but with development in the city and the drought, water is going to be scarce. The damn city people are wasting water keeping their BS Lawns. I don't think they understand how aquifers work. That storm needs to turn a smidge to the north and we'll get a skirting of rain from the outer bands. I could stand 16" of rain over the course of 3 weeks though.
Everyone where I live is hoping this storm turns North a bit. The unfortunate thing about where I live is that we rely on hurricanes and tropical storms to give us heavy rains every few years to recharge the aquifer. It sucks for the people on the coast, but it is unfortunately something that Southwest Texas relies on.
If it goes over the Yukatan peninsula that will seriously knock it down. It will reform but hopefully with much less energy.
SteveBott said:
If it goes over the Yukatan peninsula that will seriously knock it down. It will reform but hopefully with much less energy.
Umm maybe. Yucatn ain't that wide and doesn't have any decent mountains that can shear it off.
Land is not water. I've never seen one not be reduced over land. But again plenty of time after it moves past to fire up again
SteveBott said:
Land is not water. I've never seen one not be reduced over land. But again plenty of time after it moves past to fire up again
Thanks, Professor.
it isn't about shearing the storm. Over land the fuel is removed. Like taking oxygen from a fire.maroon barchetta said:SteveBott said:
If it goes over the Yukatan peninsula that will seriously knock it down. It will reform but hopefully with much less energy.
Umm maybe. Yucatn ain't that wide and doesn't have any decent mountains that can shear it off.
Hubert J. Farnsworth said:BrazosDog02 said:Hubert J. Farnsworth said:BrazosDog02 said:
Pastures are dry, springs are slow. I'm good with any rainfall this can bring to the Hill Country. We've all been praying. We'll see.
The western hill country needs it bad. Southwest Texas just hasn't had the rainfall totals needed over the last few years. Even the recent rains haven't been like other parts of the State. Irrigation wells in Medina and Uvalde counties are still starting to suck air. We need a flood to recharge the aquifer
Yep. Our spring fed creek is the lowest I or any of our local farmers have ever seen it and those guys lived through the 50's here. We thought one of our wells was dry but it turned out it was just the pump saver failed. The others are holding up fine but with development in the city and the drought, water is going to be scarce. The damn city people are wasting water keeping their BS Lawns. I don't think they understand how aquifers work. That storm needs to turn a smidge to the north and we'll get a skirting of rain from the outer bands. I could stand 16" of rain over the course of 3 weeks though.
Everyone where I live is hoping this storm turns North a bit. The unfortunate thing about where I live is that we rely on hurricanes and tropical storms to give us heavy rains every few years to recharge the aquifer. It sucks for the people on the coast, but it is unfortunately something that Southwest Texas relies on.
I'm 100% praying it turns north. A south Texas or north Mexico hit would be just about perfect. If it could stall out, that would be even better. I'm not praying for a hurricane. I'm just praying for **** tons of rain in the hill country. From the models, it looks like Texas isn't going to get anything but the finger.
Ragoo said:it isn't about shearing the storm. Over land the fuel is removed. Like taking oxygen from a fire.maroon barchetta said:SteveBott said:
If it goes over the Yukatan peninsula that will seriously knock it down. It will reform but hopefully with much less energy.
Umm maybe. Yucatn ain't that wide and doesn't have any decent mountains that can shear it off.
I understand that. It's just not enough land based on history of storms. This one seems determined.
BrazosDog02 said:Hubert J. Farnsworth said:BrazosDog02 said:Hubert J. Farnsworth said:BrazosDog02 said:
Pastures are dry, springs are slow. I'm good with any rainfall this can bring to the Hill Country. We've all been praying. We'll see.
The western hill country needs it bad. Southwest Texas just hasn't had the rainfall totals needed over the last few years. Even the recent rains haven't been like other parts of the State. Irrigation wells in Medina and Uvalde counties are still starting to suck air. We need a flood to recharge the aquifer
Yep. Our spring fed creek is the lowest I or any of our local farmers have ever seen it and those guys lived through the 50's here. We thought one of our wells was dry but it turned out it was just the pump saver failed. The others are holding up fine but with development in the city and the drought, water is going to be scarce. The damn city people are wasting water keeping their BS Lawns. I don't think they understand how aquifers work. That storm needs to turn a smidge to the north and we'll get a skirting of rain from the outer bands. I could stand 16" of rain over the course of 3 weeks though.
Everyone where I live is hoping this storm turns North a bit. The unfortunate thing about where I live is that we rely on hurricanes and tropical storms to give us heavy rains every few years to recharge the aquifer. It sucks for the people on the coast, but it is unfortunately something that Southwest Texas relies on.
A south Texas or north Mexico hit would be just about perfect.
Unless you live in South Texas like me.
I get we all need rain. I just hope we find a way to get it without a major hurricane anywhere on the Texas coast.
Claudette passed right over Fulghum's bait camp and yanked the entire roof of our little cabin right off like a can opener, then dumped a ton of rain inside. Everett Johnson from the fishing magazine had stayed for the first part of it and he said it came off like a frisbee amongst all else he saw. Sounded pretty scary from his descriptions.
I always get hopeful for tropical weather to drop a bunch of rain, but it never does. The heaviest that I can recall in the past 20 years in the Waco area is the 1" we got from Harvey. 30 miles south or east, and it was significant rain, but we had 1 shower.
Tropical storms and the hill country always take me back to 1998 and 2002.
Have looked at them for awhile. The only downside is one of the guys is a huge global warming nut.smstork1007 said:
https://theeyewall.com/ Those guys are pretty dang good, tropical weather site twin of Space city weather.
Need it to come in somewhere there will be minimal damage and turn up towards Uvalde so Bandera can get a massive rain event. We have been in exceptional drought conditions for so long I don't remember what the Medina looked like flowing behind the house 
we have been here 25yrs and this past 5-6 I think has been the worst yet.
we have been here 25yrs and this past 5-6 I think has been the worst yet.
Def don't need a repeat of 2002 in Bandera, we had been there about 3 years and it wiped out half the town. Luckily we were up high. Didn't have to go to work for a week because the crossing was too high so that was ok lol
Yep…….worth keeping an eye on
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Was looking at some of the spaghetti models last night, since that's what my grandfather always used to keep an eye on things. Told my wife that we'll be making a decision about evacuation after it hits the Yucatan, because that'll be the soonest we'll know whether it'll hit our section of the gulf or not. Cat 5 makes me nervous.
No one should have to work to survive. Your right to life should not depend solely on your ability to produce capital.
Forecasts now are currently calling for lots of wind shear in the western gulf knocking it back. Forecasts….. As big as this thing is, it could just be a "smaller bad boy" before it hits
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
That's my impression as well. The pressure and heat that's currently ravaging us should also help push back on the storm from directly hitting us, but I'm still expecting (and somewhat hoping) that we'll get some decent rain.
No one should have to work to survive. Your right to life should not depend solely on your ability to produce capital.
I believe I saw a forecast indicating the high pressure ridge would be sliding off to the east.... Opening the door....
Uh oh
Also heard that the Sahara dust might help decrease intensity as well but can't remember where I heard that. Went ahead and made decision to go to Padre this weekend abs bring boat, jeep and all fridge items back to Bandera. We also need to out all outdoor furniture up inside. I don't want to get stuck in any type of evacuation traffic. We did the same for Harvey ans got our stuff out 2-3 days before the mad rush thank goodness
Yellow / orange / red = high wind shear which is suppose to blow the top off it and weaken it. Besides a small spot in the Yucatan channel it should get torn up some starting tonight. We'll see.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/BKT5jabSxNADBmaZ/?mibextid=xCWQen
This is a really good break down from Kris 6 in Corpus
This is a really good break down from Kris 6 in Corpus
Doesn't look like it will be this one, but you can bet the house on a major severe storm smashing into MS gulf coast.
Daughter just started a new job as event coordinator at a group of boutique hotels over there, so queue the hysteria and panic...
Daughter just started a new job as event coordinator at a group of boutique hotels over there, so queue the hysteria and panic...
This is a fantastic resource, love that they're being very unbiased and just relying on the data that they have. Will be using this as my main source moving forward.
I think they're right, if the storm keeps its intensity then we'll be seeing it in Texas. But if these wind shears are able to break it up then it should help clean up Mexico a bit.
I think they're right, if the storm keeps its intensity then we'll be seeing it in Texas. But if these wind shears are able to break it up then it should help clean up Mexico a bit.
No one should have to work to survive. Your right to life should not depend solely on your ability to produce capital.
Super informative. I guess we will see where we are tonight/tomorrow AM and have a clearer picture.
Levi Cowan from www.tropicaltidbits.com does a great job in his videos breaking down the hows and whys of the forecast for each storm without any BS or politics thrown in. If you want to get your weather nerd on looking at raw data and models, his site is where you want to be.one safe place said:Have looked at them for awhile. The only downside is one of the guys is a huge global warming nut.smstork1007 said:
https://theeyewall.com/ Those guys are pretty dang good, tropical weather site twin of Space city weather.
The shear is going to be increasing over the next 24 hours and it should be weakening as it approaches Jamaica and will likely be a Cat 1/2 approaching the Yucatan. Too early to tell what it will do after it crosses, but I am not seeing any models returning it to major storm approaching the Texas coast so far.WaltonAg18 said:
This is a fantastic resource, love that they're being very unbiased and just relying on the data that they have. Will be using this as my main source moving forward.
I think they're right, if the storm keeps its intensity then we'll be seeing it in Texas. But if these wind shears are able to break it up then it should help clean up Mexico a bit.
You can already see the western side of the storm being impacted by the shear in the latest sat loop.
IR Satellite Loop for Hurricane BERYL | Tropical Tidbits
Quote:
The only downside is one of the guys is a huge global warming nut.
Link to this on the eye wall?
Featured Stories
See All
23:09
2h ago
7.4k
24:46
1h ago
11k
Post Game Review: No. 25 Texas A&M 41, No. 9 Missouri 10
by Kay Naegeli
138:15
9h ago
4.1k
coastag227
Regarding Weigman: "Stand up and take some ____ ownership"
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
131
Xaden
Regarding Weigman: "Stand up and take some ____ ownership"
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
125