Sure wish I would have pulled the trigger in 2019. Seems like everything has doubled. My buddy is selling some property around Elgin for record prices but told me he's having a hard time rolling the funds into new rural property due to everyone who has land around Austin, San Antonio, Houston or DFW trying to do the same.

Now that I'm done *****ing, we've decided to buy something soon in fear that we may be priced out if we wait another two years.

Originally I was hoping for ~200 acres to hunt, get away, possibly lease but getting that acreage for our budget means driving six+ hours from DFW down to Edwards County or the panhandle which is not what we're looking for. Now I'm thinking 30-60 acres with a nice stock tank and maybe some elevation for a cabin.

Any advice for a newbie? Anything you wish you would have done different? Anyone regret buying too far away?

Wait. There will be a reset in two years.

AgResearch said:

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Wait. There will be a reset in two years.

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Agree completely.

AgResearch said:

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Wait. There will be a reset in two years.

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Haha.
Everyone has been talking about housing and property falling every year since 2008.

The only thing that will happen during a reset is that people with money will continue to buy land and prices will remain high.

We have 150 acres in Mason County. I feel like prices are reasonable, but it's all subjective.

I believe there will be a reset, however I also believe raw land in the hundreds of dollars per acre is a pipe dream. I can only speak with knowledge in two areas but I believe the floor in the hill country will be $4k within any reasonable distance of SA or Austin, and I think the floor in STX will be $2k. Buy land and you'll never regret it.

There will never be a reset. Only a plateau.

vmiaptetr said:

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There will never be a reset. Only a plateau.

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I don't see land in Texas resetting as long as people keep moving here. And I don't think people are going to stop coming for the next 10 years at least.

Old RV Ag said:

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AgResearch said:

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Wait. There will be a reset in two years.

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Agree completely.

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Disagree. IMO worst case we see values of land and houses flatten for a while in Texas. Other states and countries will continue to see people move to Texas. Population and opportunities will increase if the overall economy has problems. It will be worse in other places than Tx.
OP, decide how many hours away from home you are wanting to be and your dollar amount to spend. Pick towns west of your home and put in maps to see the travel time. Draw an arc with a compass on a map. Go find a property on a rural FM ROAD that fits your budget and distance. Quality property on a good state maintained fm road will hold its value better and be easier to sell or divide one day if you ever need to. Property with a nice pond or live water would also be great. Stay away from easement access to or thru a property.

AnScAggie said:

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I believe there will be a reset, however I also believe raw land in the hundreds of dollars per acre is a pipe dream. I can only speak with knowledge in two areas but I believe the floor in the hill country will be $4k within any reasonable distance of SA or Austin, and I think the floor in STX will be $2k. Buy land and you'll never regret it.

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Completely agree with your first (the pipe dream part) and last sentences. I currently see large properties in several parts of the state in the $2k range. I haven't worked the hill country, but $4k seems light. I wouldn't be surprised if my view of hill country isn't as broad as it should be.

AgResearch said:

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Wait. There will be a reset in two years.

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rme said:

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AnScAggie said:

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I believe there will be a reset, however I also believe raw land in the hundreds of dollars per acre is a pipe dream. I can only speak with knowledge in two areas but I believe the floor in the hill country will be $4k within any reasonable distance of SA or Austin, and I think the floor in STX will be $2k. Buy land and you'll never regret it.

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Completely agree with your first (the pipe dream part) and last sentences. I currently see large properties in several parts of the state in the $2k range. I haven't worked the hill country, but $4k seems light. I wouldn't be surprised if my view of hill country isn't as broad as it should be.

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My uncle bought 450ish acres between Comfort and Kerrville 5 years ago for $2700/
ac. And I bought close to 2,000 ac in STX for $1750/ac four years ago. Right now we both look like Buffett type savants, the bottom could fall out but I think the pressure on land is too high to ever lose money.

How do y'all feel about pipeline/power easements? Deal breakers?

AgResearch said:

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Wait. There will be a reset in two years.

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A reset?? What kind of reset.....2% annual accretion in value vs. 5%? Texas property has been an incredible investment for 3 decades under mostly normal circumstances. Add hundreds of thousands of well off people moving to Texas and the intrastate migration from urban to rural communities.....and there is NO chance of a reset any time soon. Your betting odds would be better with Vandy winning the natty in two years.

Back in my "broke as a hobo" youth, I had the opportunity to buy +400 acres in Mason County that fronted the San Saba River. Price was $450.00 an acre. I'm waiting for that reset to happen just any day now.

That's the problem with resets. The reset may still be a higher price that the current market

schwack schwack said:

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How do y'all feel about pipeline/power easements? Deal breakers?

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Both diminish the overall value of a property. Same with another tract having an access easement thru a property.
Any easement thru a tract is a problem or a future problem waiting to happen.

AgResearch said:

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Wait. There will be a reset in two years.

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https://texags.com/forums/34/topics/3099447/replies/56153774#56153774

Somebody is bound to predict the great Texas land bust one of these days.

None issue in my opinion. Lots of areas of the state, you can't hardly find a property without one of the two.

Now access easements for individuals, you need to really examine close.

High interest rates will be a great opportunity for cash buyers. We will see the buyers get thinned out.

But land isn't going to go back to 10 years ago, especially "ranchettes" that are 20-50 acres.

Just from my experience, a long weekend place needs to be inside 3 hours or it turns into a drag after a little while.

A go for the day place needs to be inside 45 minutes.

Oklahoma gets a bad reputation for dealing with the locals but I don't think it's as bad as the rumors. Lots of beautiful country at a reasonable cost with some damn good hunting.

CS78 said:

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Just from my experience, a long weekend place needs to be inside 3 hours or it turns into a drag after a little while.

A go for the day place needs to be inside 45 minutes.

Oklahoma gets a bad reputation for dealing with the locals but I don't think it's as bad as the rumors. Lots of beautiful country at a reasonable cost with some damn good hunting.

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What's the bad rap? Meth?

Yes, just white trash in general. Meth, trespassing, stuff getting stolen, etc.

Do some searches over on texasbowhunter.com. Personally it wouldn't keep me away but you just need to understand the potential issues. Which of course can happen anywhere.

You're spot on.

In laws extended family has 800ish acres north of Atoka that holds big deer, is super ducky, and has superb fishing. Problem is about 4 hours door to door across the metroplex from west FW so it's hard to get up there. It's definitely a 2 or 3 night stay kinda place which is real hard to commit to with kids schedules. My single BIL even has a hard time making it more than 2 weekend per season.

My folks had a lake place about 2.5 hours. It was a whipping trying to get down there frequently enough to stay on top of mowing/maintenance to fully enjoy fishing weekends.

Traded that for a 60 acre "ranchito" that's right at an hour & 10 min door to door. Would love it to be bigger, but it's so dang convenient to go for an afternoon after church, or overnight after a Friday night baseball game.

Realtor said everyone is looking for 20-40 acres within an hour and a half of town, especially as boomers inch towards retirement but want to stay close to grandkids.

Increasing population and a limited supply of land. Economics are fairly simple on this one.

I hear they are not making any more of it (land)….

Anyone waiting on a reset will watch their grandkids buy the land before they do. In the last 35 years I think we seen one drop, the eighties recession. And that was 13 bucks a barrel bad. We are not going to see sub 20 oil anytime soon.

Land may be overvalued, but with the pace of inflation we will experience it won't take long for the dollar valuation to make it reasonable again.

Land will be dirt cheap when factories can lab grow wagyu beef for less than raising cows.

Buy as much as you can as soon as you can. It's not going to devalue.

Hell, rock and cedar ranchitos in Edwards are pushing $4K an acre.

Of course I remember reading the classifieds in the Sunday paper during the early 80s and land in LaSalle Co. was going for $325-350 an acre.

No reset is coming. If you want land, buy it now. It's like the old adage of when is the right time to plant a tree? Yesterday. Do it now if you are able. Texas rural land will only go up.

I just wanna know who the 13 people are that stared the AgResearch land reset post. Bc those 13 need to know about my ocean front property in Arizona.

I'm telling ya, from my front porch you can see the sea.

Pipeline easements are no big deal in my opinion. Power is a bit different just because you can see it.

Also you can forget about getting minerals as part of any deal. Most people have either sold them separately or have 0 interest in discussing. Make sure you have have surface rights on the minerals, but even those can be tricky.

Do your research on power and water. My place had neither, and you'll have options, but make sure you know the ballpark costs.

Bob_Ag said:

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Increasing population and a limited supply of land. Economics are fairly simple on this one.

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But, is the population of people that want rural land AND can afford current levels also increasing?

I've thought for a long time that the "reset" has to happen sometime, just because I've struggled to see where all the future demand comes from.

And how many thousands of acres are set to turnover due to inheritance in the next 10 years? More than usual?

Lot of upwards pressure from out of state owners relocating to Texas and also hedge funds. The return is crazy in central Texas especially if you hold for a while and split up the larger tracts in 10a-20asections. I know of 2 transactions where the base cost was $1000-$1200 and one was recently sold for 14k and the other 24k an acre after a ~20 year hold.