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And it's not just the GFS model. One of NOAA's best hurricane-only models, the HWRF, basically takes Harvey on a similar, five-day rainmaking tour of central and south Texas, keeping the storm in place with no steering currents.

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Finally, there's the European model, which during its last two runs had pulled Harvey out into the Gulf and had it caught up in a trough over the Midwestern United States. At least this pulled it out of the region by Wednesday, or so. Now the European seems to be playing the "shelter in place" game with Harvey's remnants, too.

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The model is dated Aug 31. It means the storm hasn't really gone any where and is just dumping on people.

I also think it's a sign saying the big man upstairs doesn't like Houston based on the last 3 or 4 years of 100 year floods in a row. Probably Bout time to ditch the bayou

5p is out, 125mph, 941 pressure.

Projected path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153146.shtml?cone#contents

oragator said:

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5p is out, 125mph, 941 pressure.

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941? Isn't that Cat 4 territory? Just takes awhile for the winds to catch up?

Ignac said:

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B-1 83 said:

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Latest radar is showing the eye headed in near Rockport. On that eye path will go a ways east of me. Lord, just keep us a few miles out of that eye wall!

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I'm not sure if any other old time Catholics did this but my old school Polish mother, God rest her awesome soul, would burn palms in a frying pan and hold it out the door during a severe storm. She said it would move the storms away. You might try this. If you don't have any palms from Palm Sunday, I guess you are SOL and will likely face mass devastation.

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My priest back home in Mission told us about little old ladies facing into the wind and using a knife to make cuts in the shape of the cross.

Winds upper cat 3-125mph

From the NHC:


Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt. Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight. After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours. In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week. This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.

Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength. Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey's slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast. Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/252055.shtml

That's what I'm worried about here in sa. If it stalls out a little farther inland it's going to be worse than '98. South east of here is going to be (obviously) way worse. Praying for a shift to get it out quicker. We need rain in tx. Just not all at once.

This thing is still intensifying it looks like, everyone stay safe out there!

oragator said:

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5p is out, 125mph, 941 pressure.

Projected path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153146.shtml?cone#contents

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Graphic shows it moves a couple hundred miles, maybe, over about 5 days time!!

Damn this is looking beyond bad

My dumbass cousin is out helping people board up their houses right now... in Corpus.

rather be fishing said:

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The Wonderer said:

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rather be fishing said:

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f burg ag said:

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Weather Channel pronunciations so far:

Nueces = "new ee says"
Pearland = "purland" I don't know how you screw that up, but young lady does every time
La Marque = "law markey"

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what a bunch of Ma Larque

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FIFY

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dammit

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It was just staring you in the face, man.

The Wonderer said:

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rather be fishing said:

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The Wonderer said:

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rather be fishing said:

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f burg ag said:

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Weather Channel pronunciations so far:

Nueces = "new ee says"
Pearland = "purland" I don't know how you screw that up, but young lady does every time
La Marque = "law markey"

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what a bunch of Ma Larque

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FIFY

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dammit

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It was just staring you in the face, man.

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I'm trying to "work" right now.

ThatOneAg said:

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gigemJTH12 said:

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Can someone explain this?

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From the link:

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If this is more or less correct, it means Harvey has remained in Texas, within 100 or 200 miles of the Gulf of Mexico, for five days hoovering up moisture and heat from the bath-like Gulf and dumping it on the eastern half of Texas.

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From everything I've read, this guy is the "least sensational" of forecasters.

Pressure is still dropping though not quickly. 940 on the last pass.

When I was a kid the eye of Carla passed over us. It was as you say "surreal".

Can't stop watching this feed.

Don't I feel dumb. I have had it open in a minimized window for over an hour listening to him. Weird.