We need the rain in Central Texas

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Subject: forecast


This is a heads up on a potential heavy and flooding rain event for the Valley. We are projecting EX-Harvey to track northwest into the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday where it will fine low wind shear, very warm water and moist unstable air. These ideal environmental conditions will allow the system to wrap up and become a tropical storm once again. The redevelopment process will be gradual. But once a lower level circulation center forms it could intensify quickly. How much is uncertain. It's not out of the question that a redeveloped Harvey could become a strong tropical storm and perhaps even a hurricane. Computer models are being run on this system without a real low level center. So, until one does form the exact track is going to be questionable. But global computer models are showing the system moving inland just south of the Valley on Friday with a very large area of heavy rain. The other issue might be that the system could stall over northeast Mexico Friday night and through the upcoming weekend. That would bring phenomenal rainfall with totals over 12" leading to widespread flooding.
Again exact details on this system are going to be very uncertain until the low level circulation center forms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Please let me know if you need additional information later this week. I will send an update to this later Wednesday once we see formation happening.

Charpie said:

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We need the rain in Central Texas

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If this system would go into N Mexico and move up the Rio Bravo, we might ALL receive needed rain. Probably too much to ask, but it has a chance !

Is that showing 2 ft of rain from basically LA to Corpus and inland?

Looks like models are starting to agree.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

What websites and services do you guys follow? I need to keep an eye on this thing - if it is going to impact the Galveston Bay area, I need to make preparations so i don't lose a levee and about 15k acre feet of water. Would like to have some good places to follow that can explain things in non meteorologist jargon with good visual aids.

Basically - tracking storms for dummies, and not on twatter since i refuse to use it.

Gracias.

I like Weather Underground for that (not related to the terrorist organization!)

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane

The Category 6 blog on the right pane does a good job of breaking everything down and the comments section of the blog is basically a forum discussing what will happen with a mix of pro-meteorologists to everyday people speculating.

New blog just got posted, so there aren't many comments on the current one yet, but give it a while and it will blow up.

Also, more specific to Houston, the monthly thread at the KHOU weather forum does a good job of giving realistic information. Each month has a running thread to cover anything happening.
http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=2

GEFS model has the heavier rain amounts localized to the east.

This is going to miss us. Isn't it

People are going to freak out and BCS HEB's are going to be a nightmare

Track West, Damnit!

It will be at max a cat 1, and more probably a TS or TD. Highly doubt it effects Houston much more than a few inches of rain

Well I am going yak fishing in gal bay Friday and then attending a buddies 40th bday party in pirates beach Saturday. Should be nice weather

Got a fly guide booked Friday in CC...because of course.

Most models showing 10-20" of rain over Houston. It's still early though. We should have a better idea once it's back out over the gulf in 24-36 hrs

foleyt said:

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Most models showing 10-20" of rain over Houston. It's still early though. We should have a better idea once it's back out over the gulf in 24-36 hrs

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I've seen 8 inches. Where in the heck did you see up to 20 inches?

Models are going nuts right now. Need to wait for another run

ECMWF showed like 30 west of Houston earlier today. Haven't seen an updated run

ttha_aggie_09 said:

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Track West, Damnit!

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This

foleyt said:

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ECMWF showed like 30 west of Houston earlier today. Haven't seen an updated run

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It's too late. The soccer moms in Katy will be evacuating as soon as school let's out.

Choke Canyon is 23.1' low...this might be our only chance to fill her up for a while. Hasn't been full since 07-08

Corpus local news at noon showed a graphic with about a dozen models, one had it going into N Mexico, one had it going into CC Bay and the rest had it tracking up the coast, 50 miles or so offshore, and going in anywhere from Port Lavaca to Galveston. However, they do not disclose which models they are using.

Keep in mind these rainfall total maps are typically over a week's time. Not in a day or two. Obviously some areas will get hit pretty hard. But it's not like those areas will see 24" of rain in a two day span.

RebelE91 said:

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Keep in mind these rainfall total maps are typically over a week's time. Not in a day or two. Obviously some areas will get hit pretty hard. But it's not like those areas will see 24" of rain in a two day span.

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Maybe not likely but has happened before.

100% chance of formation now

Claudette dumped a massive amount of rain over a relatively localized area. The precip map shows at least 8 counties / parishes getting 24" of rain. Not going to happen in 48 hours. No doubt some areas will see some localized flooding due to intense rain in a short amount of time.

Please bring the rain to central Bastrop county!!!! Had another fire over the weekend. Luckily only 30 acres burned and it didn't get any houses. I've already been putting out round bales at one of our places.

id go ahead and make those preparations.

When are we heading to Tin Cups?

This is a little more reasonable.