Swarely said:

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Wiki says that the highest point on the islands are the Blue Hills at 161'

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Winds are a hell of a lot faster at higher elevation.

Cromagnum said:

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Swarely said:

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Wiki says that the highest point on the islands are the Blue Hills at 161'

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Winds are a hell of a lot faster at higher elevation.

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Yea, I get that. But we were talking about storm surges.

Thank you (and others) for your responses!

My only concern is that if they do decide to leave they will choose to too late. Or they stay and haven't prepared in any way. But my in laws eat like birds so they'll be fine.

VaultingChemist said:

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They have plenty of time to leave Fort Walton if Irma does not turn to the north.

For the possibility that Irma and Jose might hit the same areas:

Quote:

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Twenty-three people are known to have stayed in the Richelieu Manor Apartments in Pass Christian, Mississippi during hurricane Camille, eight of whom died.

The site of the Richelieu Apartments, the corner of Henderson Avenue and US 90 in Pass Christian later became a shopping center. Coincidentally, it was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.

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I'm very familiar with that site and others nearby. What they doesn't tell you is that site is practically on the sand. It would be like a condo on the sea wall in Galveston (without the sea wall) taking a CAT 5 in the shorts. Hell, that might have been the site that had the boats from the marina come crashing through, I can't remember for certain.

I'm not saying you shouldn't fear what a storm can do in these situations, but that site was essentially ground zero for that storm. Bay St. Luis looked a like a bomb had been dropped on it.

Sure about what?

I wonder if mr Branson has come out of his wine cellar on Necker Island yet. He may look around and go back down and start drinking all that wine.

Rockdoc said:

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I wonder if mr Branson has come out of his wine cellar on Necker Island yet. He may look around and go back down and start drinking all that wine.

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I saw a report that all were fine, but the house was uninhabitable.

That's Sir Branson to you commoner.

Ah yes. My bad.

BoneAg said:

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Ok, so now that the path looks to be headed up the Atlantic side of FL, the wife and kids are headed to Tallahassee in a caravan with some family friends. That should be far enough so that municipal utilities are relatively unaffected by the storm. In the event Irma starts heading that way, the caravan will head up towards Kentucky.

I'm staying behind to ride out the storm on that same family's place right outside of Gainesville. This is primarily to help with any work that may be needed to keep their livestock contained post-hurricane. We're well-stocked with water and fuel, hopefully we won't be needing it.

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I live in Gainesville too, keeping my fingers crossed that it runs up the east coast. If it stays out there, I'm staying but if I see that thing drifting towards running up the center of the state, I'm getting out of here.

12z Euro seems to be a problem...

A large portion of Providenciales is higher than 50 feet. I'm part of what is best described as a time share vet clinic there. The clinic and house are on the leeward side closer to the top. The vet that is there now is hunkering down in the clinic along with the gardener's family. A few neighbors as well. They were trying to get our manager and her husband to stay there too, but I don't know if they convinced them.

North, South, and Middle Caicos are pretty low. Hopefully they got most of the people off those islands. I'm not too familiar with Grand Turks terrain.

I'll let everyone know when we hear back from them.

Thx for linking image. That would be a devastating scenario.

yeah, i was hoping that the track will stay east. a coworker just showed me the Euro model carpe posted above, that's a bit worrisome.

i recall some previous posts saying the Euro model may not be the best for Irma, something about the initial conditions in the model. for those in the know, is that the case?

bjork said:

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r/TropicalWeather has good commentary on the GFS. It's apparently broken and overshoots intensity. So, grain-of-salt and that jazz.

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I only remember seeing that GFS wasnt as accurate on this thread

carpe vinum said:

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Cotdam

Was supposed to be this emoji

CharlieBrown17 said:

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bjork said:

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r/TropicalWeather has good commentary on the GFS. It's apparently broken and overshoots intensity. So, grain-of-salt and that jazz.

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I only remember seeing that GFS wasnt as accurate on this thread

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Euro called Harvey best and continues to do so at this point with Irma.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/

Man, that would be bad. It seems like more Floridians in Tampa are opting to stay put due to the models forecasting this thing riding up the east coast. If it shifts and hits Tampa...

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905861946167238656/photo/1

Winds. Hurricane gusts all the way to Atlanta.

CJS4715 said:

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12z Euro seems to be a problem...

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Not for those of us in coastal GA, SC and NC... That track is like a stay of execution. Now it's time to see if it's an outlier or if the others will follow. IIRC the UK Met was sort of near there in recent runs.

Google Crisis looks pretty legit

http://google.org/crisismap/2017-irma?hl=en&llbox=35.46%2C11.66%2C-40.38%2C-100.41&t=TERRAIN&layers=3%2C1340721332252%2C30%2C1%2C31%2C32%2C5%2C49%2C15%2C11%2C20%2C12%2Clayer9%2Clayer8

Looks like the poorly named Cockburn Town is about to get pummeled.

Are the models now showing a later shift to the East?

Trying to figure out if I should still fly to Destin tomorrow night. It still looks like the main part of Irma won't really hit the Destin area.

Perhaps Joseph

ftaggie09 said:

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Are the models now showing a later shift to the East?

Trying to figure out if I should still fly to Destin tomorrow night. It still looks like the main part of Irma won't really hit the Destin area.

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Hard to know. 72 hours out is considered fairly reliable. Currently, the bigger concern appears to be central to NW Florida once inland (seems like center near I-75 corridor seems like a reasonable expectation but could shift as far west as Tallahassee).