She'll tell us how the storm help spread COVID-19 and schools should be shut down until the fall of 2023.Aggie_3 said:FIDO 96 said:
Hoping it drives right through Houston/Galveston and stalls over north Texas. We'll take whatever rain nature provides
I want it to hit Houston hard just to see cry baby Hidalgo actually attempt to handle A real crisis
Rain is outdoors.....
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Last: 5 days ago by ABATTBQ87
Funny, but sadly true
Needs to turn a bit more to the west for us to be fully on the rain side. NOAA has it pegged to my doorstep as of this morning and I'm getting rain right now as I send this.
CWby '90
Aggie_3 said:
Now I'm just waiting on the other storm to turn even more and join up and make a super storm
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
Isn't this forecast track similar to the TS that produced the Guadalupe River flood in 2002?
Just checked the new paths and wow. What a change.
Sorry, central Texans hoping for rain.
Yeah, that is a huge shift in the models.
Shifted 300 miles East since this AM.
I have my rescheduled "bachelor" party this coming weekend in Barataria
Edit: fishing trip
Edit: fishing trip
Levi's blog goes into the detail behind the shift and why the models got Marco so wrong.STX Ag said:
Shifted 300 miles East since this AM.
Oddly then he does mention if Laura enters the gulf on the south side of Cuba, it could start shifting west...
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
Schmelba?
NOAA now showing both to hit Baton Rouge a day and a half apart.
CWby '90
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AgCWby90CS said:
NOAA now showing both to hit Baton Rouge a day and a half apart.
It's their punishment for getting away with paying players.
G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
Don't look now, but...
Cromagnum said:
Don't look now, but...
Keep shifting further west
Aggie_3 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
I'm sitting on a 2.8M dollar cotton crop that has 2.7M invested. We haven't had a crop in 4 years. Your grass will be alright
G. hirsutum Ag said:Aggie_3 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
I'm sitting on a 2.8M dollar cotton crop that has 2.7M invested. We haven't had a crop in 4 years. Your grass will be alright
Username checks out.
G. hirsutum Ag said:Aggie_3 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
I'm sitting on a 2.8M dollar cotton crop that has 2.7M invested. We haven't had a crop in 4 years. Your grass will be alright
You're investing 2.7M to grow a crop in a field that at best will only allow production 20% of the time?!?
AgLA06 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:Aggie_3 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
I'm sitting on a 2.8M dollar cotton crop that has 2.7M invested. We haven't had a crop in 4 years. Your grass will be alright
You're investing 2.7M to grow a crop in a field that at best will only allow production 20% of the time?!?
G. hirsutum Ag said:Aggie_3 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
I'm sitting on a 2.8M dollar cotton crop that has 2.7M invested. We haven't had a crop in 4 years. Your grass will be alright
I'd be picking cotton, not posting to the texags.
G. hirsutum Ag said:Aggie_3 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
I'm sitting on a 2.8M dollar cotton crop that has 2.7M invested. We haven't had a crop in 4 years. Your grass will be alright
STX Ag said:G. hirsutum Ag said:Aggie_3 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
I'm sitting on a 2.8M dollar cotton crop that has 2.7M invested. We haven't had a crop in 4 years. Your grass will be alright
I'd be picking cotton, not posting to the texags.
Especially with that kind of risk for a potential 3.7% return every 5 years.
AgLA06 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:Aggie_3 said:G. hirsutum Ag said:
I'm doin a happy dance right now hoping the new models are correct. You can feed your dang cows and your yard will survive.
**** that
I'm sitting on a 2.8M dollar cotton crop that has 2.7M invested. We haven't had a crop in 4 years. Your grass will be alright
You're investing 2.7M to grow a crop in a field that at best will only allow production 20% of the time?!?
Missed a rain, Covid shut down supply chain, China/trump trade war killed the price. Not usually this tight but that's farm life. One rain right now could take the whole crop out and insurance only pays 70% of 10 year average. And unfortunately we have only gotten 4 of the last 10 harvested. Harvey took out 17, excessive rain in 15,16 and ,18 took those crops, got 19 out but yields flopped. We are picking as fast as physically possible but it's ready only when it's ready and you can't speed it up. Crop is early this year because we missed a rain and we are hoping that's a good thing and we can be done by middle of September. Hard to get parts because Covid shut down supply chain there too. And to see friends online begging for rain for things that have very little impact on them financially just ticks me off further. We have cattle too that are hungry but we will keep feeding hay and hope for the best. Fun times
That's horrible.
At what point does occasionally bad luck change to the new norm? It's sounds like maybe a 30% hit rate over the last decade (at least one of the harvested crops had a bad yield). I'm actually kind of surprised insurance would even cover you at this point. 2.7M is a lot of capital that could probably get you a much better return, for less risk and work a bunch of other ways.
To be honest though I don't get the my want for or against rain is any more important than anyone else's. Doesn't matter how much money is involved. Everyone chooses their own path in business, location of a house, and weekend property and the associated risk. The over the top back and forth the last page or so just seems a bit much to me.
At what point does occasionally bad luck change to the new norm? It's sounds like maybe a 30% hit rate over the last decade (at least one of the harvested crops had a bad yield). I'm actually kind of surprised insurance would even cover you at this point. 2.7M is a lot of capital that could probably get you a much better return, for less risk and work a bunch of other ways.
To be honest though I don't get the my want for or against rain is any more important than anyone else's. Doesn't matter how much money is involved. Everyone chooses their own path in business, location of a house, and weekend property and the associated risk. The over the top back and forth the last page or so just seems a bit much to me.
Not unreasonable to have $350/A invested for a cotton crop. The new round bale cotton pickers cost 850k a piece and can pick 100 acres a day if everything goes smooth. I'm sitting in a JD 8345R right now that is probably 350k machine. The margins on corn are much much tighter. We had record corn yields this year and if we are lucky we might break even because the price is so terrible. Cattle prices suck, milo sucks. Cotton is only thing that has a chance to make a profit.
Those investment numbers include most of my living expenses but the bank can only handle so much negative revenue for the business. One rain at the right time can make or break it. We can get a million dollar June rain that makes the whole year. We had one of the best crops we've ever had when Harvey hit. Partly why the financial damage from Harvey was so high is because it took out 15 gins that were full of cotton plus close to 1m acres. One of the other posters on this board lost his entire cotton crop from Hanna.
I know you guys don't actually want us to lose a crop or a house or something but the reasons so many beg for rain in the grand scheme of things are so arbitrary. I have lots of friends who have had to shred down veggie crops because the market evaporated over night. This is the toughest time most folks have every experienced in ag. I know someone hoping for rain doesn't actually cause it to rain but it feels like y'all are dancing on our grave a bit because people hate seeing the pastures and trees burned up. Just frustrating all around
Those investment numbers include most of my living expenses but the bank can only handle so much negative revenue for the business. One rain at the right time can make or break it. We can get a million dollar June rain that makes the whole year. We had one of the best crops we've ever had when Harvey hit. Partly why the financial damage from Harvey was so high is because it took out 15 gins that were full of cotton plus close to 1m acres. One of the other posters on this board lost his entire cotton crop from Hanna.
I know you guys don't actually want us to lose a crop or a house or something but the reasons so many beg for rain in the grand scheme of things are so arbitrary. I have lots of friends who have had to shred down veggie crops because the market evaporated over night. This is the toughest time most folks have every experienced in ag. I know someone hoping for rain doesn't actually cause it to rain but it feels like y'all are dancing on our grave a bit because people hate seeing the pastures and trees burned up. Just frustrating all around
Yeah I'd start growing a different crop but that's me
Few million bucks on an operation more than a few hundred acres isn't much money these days. One tractor and one harvester will get you to 1.3M pretty quick and that doesn't include the seed or fertilizer. Yes it is the path we chose and it is a risk we are going to take because when it hits it's worth it. This year will be a step in the right direction if we can get it out.
Best of luck. My wife's family has a 3000+ acre farm in Iowa and I'm aware of the equipment costs needed.
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