Just saw a model run estimating 30" of rain for Houston out of this thing
Rain is outdoors.....
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Last: 6 days ago by ABATTBQ87
Seven said:
Just saw a model run estimating 30" of rain for Houston out of this thing
Seven said:
Just saw a model run estimating 30" of rain for Houston out of this thing
Which one?
The 00z run of the NAM model.
https://www.facebook.com/sanantonioaustinweather/photos/a.106911956016987/3235754036466081?type=3&sfns=mo
WPC 12z run saying 15ish for Houston
Euro 18z said 20ish for Houston
NOAA https://www.facebook.com/sanantonioaustinweather/photos/a.106911956016987/3236627486378736?type=3&sfns=mo
Looks like we will get water in the houses for the 4th time this year. But you know us, just being negative Nancy all the time
https://www.facebook.com/sanantonioaustinweather/photos/a.106911956016987/3235754036466081?type=3&sfns=mo
WPC 12z run saying 15ish for Houston
Euro 18z said 20ish for Houston
NOAA https://www.facebook.com/sanantonioaustinweather/photos/a.106911956016987/3236627486378736?type=3&sfns=mo
Looks like we will get water in the houses for the 4th time this year. But you know us, just being negative Nancy all the time
But despite all the doom and gloom, the American model is showing 6-7 inches only.
They had the side by side look on Channel 2.
Likely somewhere in between.
They had the side by side look on Channel 2.
Likely somewhere in between.
Gonna be a lot for sure. If it's spread out over 2-3 days it won't be that bad, even if it's 20+ but tropical rain tends fall in heavy chunks.
Also concerning are some of the invests around the Antilles. At least one of them is projected to go west. We have the capacity today to handle plenty of moisture, but if we use it all this week then get it again it could be rough. Nothing we can do about it. Hopefully everyone will get a few inches to get some drought relief and the totals for SE are less than 10
Don't worry about the stuff near the lesser Antilles. That system outlooked by NHC is expected to pass N of Puerto Rico and not threaten the Gulf.
I'd strongly encourage everyone to look to the WPC forecasts (they're not model runs) and local forecasters. With messy tropical setups like this the individual models will show significant variability in the highest rainfall amounts and locations. The WPC guidance is done by meteorologists who take all of this into account, and is collaborated with local forecaters. It is a much better resource for considering what to prepare for vs. any individual model run.
I'd strongly encourage everyone to look to the WPC forecasts (they're not model runs) and local forecasters. With messy tropical setups like this the individual models will show significant variability in the highest rainfall amounts and locations. The WPC guidance is done by meteorologists who take all of this into account, and is collaborated with local forecaters. It is a much better resource for considering what to prepare for vs. any individual model run.
Not quite, but glad I live rent free in your head.Cromagnum said:Aggie_3 said:
Absolutely praying it rains every day this week like it's being forecasted to
Careful. Schmelba is about to come tell you how wrong you are to think that.
I"m the ******* that is tired of flooding, of which we've already had 1 this year. And I have issues with people telling me that they don't care if it F's up the coast, they would welcome a tropical storm or hurricane if it meant their precious yards in Centex (where it's always fuggin dry and always has been) gets rain so they can save $25 on their water bill.
But sure, I'm the one out of line.
I've been pretty happy with what we've had of late - runs of dry weather broken up by small rains that keep everything green, but no deluges that bring flooding and rivers out of their banks. The horror!!!
You do realize that hoping for rain has no effect on it actually raining, right?schmellba99 said:Not quite, but glad I live rent free in your head.Cromagnum said:Aggie_3 said:
Absolutely praying it rains every day this week like it's being forecasted to
Careful. Schmelba is about to come tell you how wrong you are to think that.
I"m the ******* that is tired of flooding, of which we've already had 1 this year. And I have issues with people telling me that they don't care if it F's up the coast, they would welcome a tropical storm or hurricane if it meant their precious yards in Centex (where it's always fuggin dry and always has been) gets rain so they can save $25 on their water bill.
But sure, I'm the one out of line.
I've been pretty happy with what we've had of late - runs of dry weather broken up by small rains that keep everything green, but no deluges that bring flooding and rivers out of their banks. The horror!!!
I don't rearrange vacation plans or anything based on 10-14 day models, but long range stuff like that does impact our short term decisions in my line of work. Hope the best prepare for the worst.
Now a tropical depression #11 with 50% chance of formation
Now it's T.S. Imelda.
You do realize that hoping for not having a flood has no effect on it actually not flooding or flooding, right?uncover&humpit said:You do realize that hoping for rain has no effect on it actually raining, right?schmellba99 said:Not quite, but glad I live rent free in your head.Cromagnum said:Aggie_3 said:
Absolutely praying it rains every day this week like it's being forecasted to
Careful. Schmelba is about to come tell you how wrong you are to think that.
I"m the ******* that is tired of flooding, of which we've already had 1 this year. And I have issues with people telling me that they don't care if it F's up the coast, they would welcome a tropical storm or hurricane if it meant their precious yards in Centex (where it's always fuggin dry and always has been) gets rain so they can save $25 on their water bill.
But sure, I'm the one out of line.
I've been pretty happy with what we've had of late - runs of dry weather broken up by small rains that keep everything green, but no deluges that bring flooding and rivers out of their banks. The horror!!!
Funny how that goes both ways. Bet that didn't cross your mind with your perceived zinger though.
Can you guys have your pissing match somewhere else so we can keep this thread relevant?
Schmelba just needs to move to Austin, or maybe El Paso.
Just pointing out that it isnt worth getting upset about it when someone wishes / hopes for rain. Of course nobody wants anyone to get flooded, but if you live on the gulf coast of Texas it is a reality that floods will happen.schmellba99 said:You do realize that hoping for not having a flood has no effect on it actually not flooding or flooding, right?uncover&humpit said:You do realize that hoping for rain has no effect on it actually raining, right?schmellba99 said:Not quite, but glad I live rent free in your head.Cromagnum said:Aggie_3 said:
Absolutely praying it rains every day this week like it's being forecasted to
Careful. Schmelba is about to come tell you how wrong you are to think that.
I"m the ******* that is tired of flooding, of which we've already had 1 this year. And I have issues with people telling me that they don't care if it F's up the coast, they would welcome a tropical storm or hurricane if it meant their precious yards in Centex (where it's always fuggin dry and always has been) gets rain so they can save $25 on their water bill.
But sure, I'm the one out of line.
I've been pretty happy with what we've had of late - runs of dry weather broken up by small rains that keep everything green, but no deluges that bring flooding and rivers out of their banks. The horror!!!
Funny how that goes both ways. Bet that didn't cross your mind with your perceived zinger though.
And if you live in Texas it's a reality that drought will happen. We've had 1 really bad drought in recent years and one moderate drought that has lasted about 4-5 months. This is the 4th time this year that we have had flooding dangers and 10-12 times since 2014 along the entire coast but especially Houston not including Harvey. No one is wishing drought or flooding anywhere but you have to realize how incredibly painful it is for folks to say we need just an innocent tropical low to come in and bring some relief because you're tired of feeding hay or your trees are wilting. It all sucks and yes we expect to have hurricanes and floods down here but it hasn't stopped since this thread started. The billions that have been lost in my industry alone is unfathomable
schmellba99 said:Just pointing out that it isn't worth getting upset about when somebody doesn't wish for rain because they've had enough to last a long, long time.uncover&humpit said:Just pointing out that it isnt worth getting upset about it when someone wishes / hopes for rain. Of course nobody wants anyone to get flooded, but if you live on the gulf coast of Texas it is a reality that floods will happen.schmellba99 said:You do realize that hoping for not having a flood has no effect on it actually not flooding or flooding, right?uncover&humpit said:You do realize that hoping for rain has no effect on it actually raining, right?schmellba99 said:Not quite, but glad I live rent free in your head.Cromagnum said:Aggie_3 said:
Absolutely praying it rains every day this week like it's being forecasted to
Careful. Schmelba is about to come tell you how wrong you are to think that.
I"m the ******* that is tired of flooding, of which we've already had 1 this year. And I have issues with people telling me that they don't care if it F's up the coast, they would welcome a tropical storm or hurricane if it meant their precious yards in Centex (where it's always fuggin dry and always has been) gets rain so they can save $25 on their water bill.
But sure, I'm the one out of line.
I've been pretty happy with what we've had of late - runs of dry weather broken up by small rains that keep everything green, but no deluges that bring flooding and rivers out of their banks. The horror!!!
Funny how that goes both ways. Bet that didn't cross your mind with your perceived zinger though.
The reality is that if you live in central Texas, lack of rain will happen because it's been that way for pretty much all of history.
You're right, shut this thread down. Too much discussion of rain or no rain isn't good for anyone. Bless your heart.
Liberty and orange counties have received about 15" since midnight and it isn't moving off of them. Many are saying it's worse than with Harvey
Parts of Winnie reported to have 33" already with 25" in the last 12 hours.
Hopefully txdot has cleaned out all the box culverts under I 10 that were stopped up with debris during Harvey.
I'm in Beaumont. The water is higher than Harvey at my house. Water is currently on my front porch. Couple people in the neighborhood already have water in their houses.
We're in orange county, I've got about 1.5" in my house..... whole city is under, I've been checking the high water through the night and into this morning with a 4 wheeler looking for cars, the sherrifs dept cant get to us.
Jefferson County Drainage Dist. #6 rain gauges show several locations over 29" in the last 12 hours from Winnie to Fannett. It is bad in Winnie. Worse than Harvey for many folks.
Damn. Are those 3 foot tall concrete barriers that held water and flooded houses still on I-10 in Winnie?
If so need to take a dozer or Trackhoe and tear them down. Big truck and chain would prob do it.
If so need to take a dozer or Trackhoe and tear them down. Big truck and chain would prob do it.
Lots of places worse than Harvey.
Holler if you get in a bind. Sitting in College Station with a couple boats. From looking at the precip maps it looks like a lot of areas are fully cut off though. toledo321 at aol.comAg_of_08 said:
We're in orange county, I've got about 1.5" in my house..... whole city is under, I've been checking the high water through the night and into this morning with a 4 wheeler looking for cars, the sherrifs dept cant get to us.
Let me know if you need help. We are headed down and will have at least 8 air boats and several mud boats. We are still a couple hours out.
I can't do anything right now, but will help afterwards in any way
Where are yall heading? It looks like heading down to Galveston and then east to Bolivar and up 124 to Winnie might be a good shot. Or from the north, Kountze direction and then south to either Beaumont or Sour Lake.DDSO said:
Let me know if you need help. We are headed down and will have at least two air boats and a couple of mud boats. We are still a couple hours out.
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