The water problems in the US & Texas aren't caused by people having more than two kids. (We're stagnant as a population if you take away immigration). They are caused by more people moving internally to dry places like Texas & the rest of the Southwest. (More straws into the same amount of water)
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HOA's and garden societies will have to learn to use tougher native plants in lawns and flowerbeds, and have to accept that watering isn't always going to be viable.
This has pretty much been a fact of life in Austin/San Antonio for the past decade or more. Average per capita consumption in the region has actually gone down through restrictions & education. The most simple way to make people conserve water is to make them pay through the freaking teeth for using too much.
But it isn't the HOA's or garden societies that use most of the water... Agriculture & industrial use accounts for around 75% of the water used in Texas. (If memory serves.) Most new golf courses & many commercial projects these days are using reclaimed water for irrigation. I think we'll continue to see an uptick in that type of irrigation as well as rainwater harvesting.