There is more than just one explanation for how the New England Patriots went from being a four-win team a year ago to reaching the Super Bowl.
Drake Maye emerged as one of the best quarterbacks on the planet in just his second season. Coach Mike Vrabel, in his first year coaching the team he helped to three championships as a player, showed off his tactical wizardry. A completely overhauled defense learned to suffocate opposing offenses.
And, along the way, the Patriots were boosted by an uncanny number of lucky breaks.
Sunday's AFC Championship was no exception. When Broncos quarterback Bo Nix fractured his ankle on the final drive a week earlier, Denver became the latest team to go into a showdown with New England while missing one of its most important pieces. Nix's backup, Jarrett Stidham, hadn't thrown a pass since 2023and it showed. The Patriots wound up winning 10-7 to advance and will now face the Seattle Seahawks.
The numbers show that the Patriots played the easiest schedule in more than a quarter-century. New England opponents in the regular season finished with a 113-176 record, or a winning percentage of .391. Only two teams since 1980, according to Stats, have played a softer slate: the Jacksonville Jaguars and the then-St. Louis Rams, both in 1999. That year, the Rams went on to win the Super Bowl.
And in the entire Super Bowl era, only three teams to reach the final game of the season have faced more straightforward schedules. Those were the Rams, the 1970 Baltimore Colts and the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who achieved the only perfect season in NFL history.
In fact, all regular season, the Patriots played just three games against teams with winning records. They lost two of them. 2 of those 3 games were against the 12-5 Bills and the other game was against the 10-7 Steelers.
But when they beat the Chargers on the opening weekend of the playoffs, Vrabel wasn't looking to dissect whether or not the team had proven itself against top-shelf competition.
It's no coincidence that the Patriots faced such easy competition. The NFL calibrates its schedule-making based on the previous season's performance, which turned the Patriots' four-win 2024 campaign into a weak calendar for 2025. Plus, they also received the annual charity of padding their record with two games against the bumbling New York Jets.
At the same time, New England's journey to the Super Bowl was also helped by facing those teams at optimal moments.
Both of the Patriots games against the Jets came after the trade deadline, by which point New York had dealt away its two marquee defensive players for future draft picks. When the Pats beat the Bengals in Week 12, Cincinnati was missing both star quarterback Joe Burrow due to injury and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, who was serving a one-game suspension. And against the Ravens in December, New England only mounted a second-half comeback
after two-time MVP Lamar Jackson was injured midway through the game.
That uncanny timing has continued into the postseason. In the divisional round, the Texans were missing ace wideout Nico Collins, and tight end Dalton Schultz later left with an injury of his own.
Then came the blow to Nix, who had become a specialist in comebacks as the Broncos earned the AFC's No. 1 seed. And Denver could have used that calm on Sundaythey spent much of the second half down by only a field goal. Instead, Stidham essentially handed the Patriots their sole touchdown of the game with a backward pass they recovered in the first half. He was then unable to muster any points in the snow in the final two quarters.
The Lucky Breaks That Helped Propel the Patriots Back to the Super Bowl - WSJ