It's that time of the year where I'll spend way too much time predicting picks incorrectly. Here's the first edition of the year.

1. Indianapolis Colts - BRYCE YOUNG, QB

• There are plenty of rumors swirling about the Bears trading down. In this case, the Bears grab a few future first round picks. The Colts get the best QB in the draft.

2. Houston Texans - CJ STROUD, QB

• The Texans will make a push for Bryce Young but ultimately get outbid. CJ Stroud isn't a bad consolation prize here for a franchise that needs a quarterback like Britney Spears needs mental health.

3. Arizona Cardinals - WILL ANDERSON JR, EDGE

• The Cardinals are a mess. They can go a variety of directions here but in the age of edge rushers Anderson is a perfect fit.

4. Chicago Bears - DEVON WITHERSPOON, CB

• The Bears may very well trade back again here (and I think they ultimately will due to multiple QB needy teams vying for Will Levis or Richardson). For now, I'll slot Illinois CB.

5. Seattle Seahawks - TYREE WILSON, EDGE

• The Seahawks tied up Geno Smith for a few years so it's unlikely they'll spring for a project QB this year. They are a candidate to trade back but Tyree Wilson plays a premium position of need.

6. Detroit Lions - JALEN CARTER, DL

• It's hard to tell how far Jalen Carter will fall due to his off-the-field issues. If there's a head coach that can help mature, it's Dan Campbell.

7. Las Vegas Raiders - ANTHONY RICHARDSON, QB

• Anthony Richardson just seems like a perfect fit for the Raiders. A ton of measurables but relatively unknown production. I don't get the hype but the Raiders are a notorious hype-buying team.

8. Atlanta Falcons - QUENTIN JOHNSTON, WR

• There's arguments to be made that the Falcons should take a QB here. In this scenario, Will Levis is the only one available. I think the Falcons stick with the project QB they already have in Desmond Ridder.

9. Carolina Panthers - WILL LEVIS, QB

• I don't think the Panthers ride with their hodge-podge QB room. They'll take the cannon-armed project QB and build from there.

10. Philadelphia Eagles - CALIJAH KANCEY, DL

• Nearly everyone on the Eagles defensive front is a free agent. Kancey had a solid combine. This is a position of need pick.

11. Tennessee Titans - PETER SKORONSKI, T

• The Titans could be going full-blown rebuild with the Derrick Henry trade rumors floating around. A stud tackle is a key position to build from.

12. Houston Texans - JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, WR

• The Texans use the Bengals formula in pairing their franchise QB with his former target. Let the chemistry work.

13. New York Jets - PARIS JOHNSON JR, T

• Their tackles need some improvement. Also, what better selling point to Aaron Rodgers than we want to protect you.

14. New England Patriots - BRIAN BRANCH, S

• Brian Branch is a versatile defender. Seems like a fit for Bill Belicheck.

15. Green Bay Packers - DALTON KINCAID, TE

• Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love will both benefit from a big bodied TE.

16. Washington Commanders - BRODERICK JONES, T

• Broderick Jones can slide into guard if needed. The Commanders will need to improve their offensive line to give whoever starts at QB (Sam Howell) any hope.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, CB

• It's very possible Christian Gonzalez is taken much earlier but the Steelers benefit from the fall.

18. Detroit Lions - JOEY PORTER JR, CB

• My personal favorite CB in the class. The Lions take Joey Porter Jr to provide some much needed talent and consistency to the secondary.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - BIJAN ROBINSON, RB

• Kyle Trask is slated to start at QB for the Buccaneers this season. Leonard Fournette is gone. The Buccaneers are going to have to provide Trask with something to help him in the backfield. Bijan Robinson is the best RB prospect in a while so this is a fit.

20. Seattle Seahawks - MYLES MURPHY, EDGE

• The Seahawks double-down on edge defenders here by taking Myles Murphy. Can you imagine the headaches offensive line coaches will have trying to gameplan around Murphy and Tyree Wilson?

21. Los Angeles Chargers - JORDAN ADDISON, WR

• Aging, oft-injured, WR corps means the Chargers have to go WR here to give Justin Herbert any possibility for growth.

22. Baltimore Ravens - ZAY FLOWERS, WR

• I think the Ravens somehow recover and reach a deal with Lamar Jackson. Jackson or not, the Ravens need a legitimate WR threat.

23. Minnesota Vikings - DEONTE BANKS, CB

• Best available player at a position of need.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars - O'CYRUS TORRENCE, G

• The Jaguars need to protect Trevor Lawrence.

25. New York Giants - MICHAEL MAYER, TE

• Franchise QB, Daniel Jones, needs a steady middle fo the field target. It's a horserace between Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer being the top TE in this draft.

26. Dallas Cowboys - DREW SANDERS, LB

• The Jerry Jones effect in full-force with this pick. LB depth is severely lacking going into free-agency. Jack Campbell is probably a better overall prospect but he isn't from Arkansas.

27. Buffalo Bills - ANTONIO JOHNSON, DB

• The front office listens to Von Miller and brings in Fightin' Texas Aggie, Antonio Johnson. The Bills are likely losing Jordan Poyer to free-agency so DB becomes a position of need.

28. Cincinnati Bengals - EMMANUEL FORBES, CB

• Forbes can step right in to replace Eli Apple.

29. New Orleans Saints - LUKAS VAN NESS, DL

• Lukas Van Ness played nearly every DL position for the Iowa Hawkeyes over the last two years. The Saints need help in a few places but building that defensive trench will help.

30. Philadelphia Eagles - BRYAN BREESE, DL

• It will be interesting to see where the Eagles go in this offseason due to multiple departures. That defensive line front will lose a ton of contributors so I have the Eagles taking their second defensive line player of the first round.

31. Kansas City Chiefs - WILL MCDONALD IV, EDGE

• Insert Will McDonald opposite George Karlaftis.

Not bad, right off the bat the 2 that I think are way off base are Quentin Johnston and Van Ness.

Coming out of the combine most people have Johnston dropping to the 4th or 5th best WR with the top 3 being Njigba, Addison, and Flowers, then you have Johnston and Hyatt battling for 4th and 5th. Both of them fit into that classic Big12 limited route tree deep receiver which hasn't really worked out for most NFL teams.

Van Ness had a great combine, and most thought top 15 going into it, so I doubt he slides down the board after looking good.

I would imagine Van Ness picked closer to the top 10 (if not in the top 10) and Johnston in the upper teens to end of the 1st depending on if a run on receivers happens.

Here's where I have it right now:

1 Chicago Bears
Will Anderson - the combine diluted the QB group and without a clear cut #1 I think the Bears don't get enough to trade out

2 Houston Texans
CJ Stroud - Great combine to go with an amazing last game. I think the height and weight of Young pushes Stroud up in the end (as a Texans fan, I've started to lean Stroud over Young recently)

3 Indianapolis Colts
Bryce Young - With Stroud gone, I think the Colts scramble to outbid the raiders to take Young

4 Arizona Cardinals
Tyree Wilson - need position and everyone loves his size speed ratio

5 Seattle Seahawks
Jalen Carter - perfect fit for the Seahawks

6 Detroit Lions
Devon Witherspoon - I could see them trading out, but if they stay they get the best play making CB in the draft

7 Las Vegas Raiders
Anthony Richardson - might be higher with a trade to Arizona or the Seahawk, but I think the Raiders grab him

8 Atlanta Falcons
Myles Murphy - this is a tough one, but I think they go defense after taking a WR and TE with their top picks the last two years

9 Carolina Panthers
Will Levis - last man standing and the Panthers need someone

10 Philadelphia Eagles
Christian Gonzalez - they need help in the secondary after free agency, I don't think they go DT like you have since they took the Georgia big man in the 1st last year

11 Tennessee
Paris Johnson - I think they go with the athletic tackle in this one

12 Houston
Lukas Van Ness - I don't think DeMeco goes full offense in the 1st round

13 NY Jets
Peter Skoronski - Jets need to have healthy o-lineman

14 New England
Brian Branch - like you just versitale defensive player that they usually love

15 Green Bay
Dalton Kincaid - but could be Michael Mayer also

16 Baltimore
SURPRISE - Jordan Addison - I think Washington takes Lamar Jackson with a stupid large fully guaranteed contract as a big F U to the league by Dan Snyder on his way out

17 Pittsburgh
Broderick Jones - Need to build that line

18 Detroit
Bijan Robinson - I think Dan Campbel don't care about analytics and goes with probably the best RB to come out since Barkley

19 Tampa Bay
Joey Porter Jr, - they're going to get killed trying to get under the cap and I think the secondary will be a big hit so time to replace with younger

20 Seattle
Darnell Washington - First big surprise, Pete Carroll loves mismatch guys, and Darnell is the definition of that

21 Miami - Forfeited
Idiots

22 LA Chargers
Jazon Smith-Njiba - They actually need upgrades at WR with Allen starting to show a lot of wear and tear

23 Baltimore
SURPRISE - Hendon Hooker - yeah, I can see him getting into the 1st round now that Baltimore has 2 picks

24 Minnesota
Calijah Kancey - could go higher, depending on how things fall. I don't think he's another Aaron Donald though

25 Jacksonville
O'Cyrus Torrence - yeah, agreed, they need more protection

26 NY Giants
Michael Mayer - agreed

27 Dallas
Drew Sanders - agreed

28 Buffalo
Bryan Bresee - chance to upgrade a strength

29 Cincinnati
Anton Harrison - OT - they continue to build protection for Burrow

30 New Orleans
Quentin Johnston - upgrade for Carr and the deep ball

31 Philadelphia
Adetomiwa Adebawore - DE - huge combine performance and like you said, they need help after FA

32 Kansas City
Jalin Hyatt - gadget speed guy you can add to the offense

Dallas is not taking a 2nd round LB in the 1st round! It's likely all the 1st round graded players are gone and whoever they get will have a 2nd round grade, but LB is not happening.

They will most likely take best available LG or LT (we have flex to take either since our 1st round pick last year played really good at both spots) or CB.

A WR like Jalin Hyatt would be a good wild card pick... they are NOT drafting one of those undersized slot WRs. Some of CD Lamb's best work comes from the slot, we need another outside WR to help our passing game.

Buffalo definitely needs help at safety. Antonio would be a good fit.

bottom third of the draft is where he's projected

No way the Bears take a DB at #4.

Bears just traded with Carolina, so Panthers now with #1 overall pick.

Incredible haul for the Bears.

I remember when I was told that the Texans winning and blowing the #1 pick wasn't a big deal


Yeah it was

MookieBlaylock said:

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I remember when I was told that the Texans winning and blowing the #1 pick wasn't a big deal


Yeah it was

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Good thing they fired that dumb ass coach then!

Not really seeing this as a great deal for the bears. It's an ok to good deal in my opinion. You're dropping all the way to 9th and then only gaining another pick this year that is at the very end of the second round. In addition Carolina isn't horrible, so if they hit on the right QB that devalues the 1st next year and the 2nd in 2025 even more so. That's a lot of variables to move down in a draft where there are some serious drops after the top talents.

If they got Carolina to throw in their 2nd rounder at the top of the round then it would be a great haul.

A team that is drafting #9 isn't horrible?
They hired a terrible coach
Gave up there #1 wr
Drafting a project QB I all 3

Must be a Houston apologist for giving the bears a gift

I was actually looking at it from the Chicago point of view. I follow them because my dad grew up in Chicago.

This isn't a great deal, just a good one (anything less than good and the front office should have been fired)

You drop from 1 to 9, and it's laughable what's being sold to fans. Watching ESPN and they just said Chicago's top 2 targets should be Jalen Carter and Tyree Wilson at #9, which is hilarious that guys who have been projected in the top 5 should be targets for fans to look at dropping down to 9. But you're taking a huge risk at missing out on the top 3 DL targets with a large drop off after them at a need position.

Carolina pawned off the 2nd round pick they got from San Francisco, so you're really getting an extra 3rd round pick this year, so not going to get top talent there, but you might grab a deal.

1st rounder next year, say what you will about Carolina, the team sucked because the QB sucked last year. They play in the NFC south, so all they have to be to reach the playoff is potentially average. Which devalues that 1st rounder a lot and puts a gamble on the value.

2nd round in 2025, again, the division will be weak so it's still a large gamble.

DJ Moore, a weak #1 who's catch % hasn't been above 60% in over 3 years. You're adding a catch percentage #1 with a QB that averages 12 completions a game, which is a very bad combination. Now, after looking at his contract I'll bump it up his value a bit as it looks like Chicago can dump him after this year without a big cap hit if he sucks even though he has 3 more years at a little under 20M.a year.

He is already a top 5 all time receiver for the bears

MookieBlaylock said:

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He is already a top 5 all time receiver for the bears

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Will that's just a low blow lol

I agree.

this was not a great deal for the Bears -- a bit underwhelming

Rumor is Panthers jumped up for Stroud.

Broncos said:

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Rumor is Panthers jumped up for Stroud.

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Yeah, I've seen that too

seems like bears jumped the gun. i'd think they could have gotten more if they had waited until closer to draft.

BMX Bandit said:

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seems like bears jumped the gun. i'd think they could have gotten more if they had waited until closer to draft.

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I agree

Never understood why the Falcons would trade Ridley for nada.

Lake08 said:

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Never understood why the Falcons would trade Ridley for nada.

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I can't believe the Raiders traded Randy Moss to the Pats for a 4th rounder

IrishAg said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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He is already a top 5 all time receiver for the bears

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Will that's just a low blow lol

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Is it though? He may be #1. This is really bad

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/chicago-bears-all-time-leading-receivers-in-history/

MookieBlaylock said:

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IrishAg said:

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MookieBlaylock said:

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He is already a top 5 all time receiver for the bears

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Will that's just a low blow lol

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Is it though? He may be #1. This is really bad

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/chicago-bears-all-time-leading-receivers-in-history/

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Wow, I didn't realize it was that bad for the bears

I was just kinda joking then crap it might be the worst position group in the history of sports

All time leading receiver
Johnny Morris

Yes that Johnny Morris that played from 1958 to 1967 and had a whopping 5k yards and 31 tds

MookieBlaylock said:

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I was just kinda joking then crap it might be the worst position group in the history of sports

All time leading receiver
Johnny Morris

Yes that Johnny Morris that played from 1958 to 1967 and had a whopping 5k yards and 31 tds

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Yeah, no lie, I figured you were joking, but damn is that list just sad

IrishAg said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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seems like bears jumped the gun. i'd think they could have gotten more if they had waited until closer to draft.

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I agree

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You guys are nuts. That is a great haul and I haven't seen anything but positives from all over for that deal.

Know Your Enemy said:

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IrishAg said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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seems like bears jumped the gun. i'd think they could have gotten more if they had waited until closer to draft.

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I agree

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You guys are nuts. That is a great haul and I haven't seen anything but positives from all over for that deal.

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Agree. I think it's a great deal for the Bears. Getting a known WR1 in Moore is a much better haul then getting a WR in round 1. They essentially got two first rounders this year, a second, and a first next year.

Broncos said:

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Know Your Enemy said:

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IrishAg said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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seems like bears jumped the gun. i'd think they could have gotten more if they had waited until closer to draft.

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I agree

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You guys are nuts. That is a great haul and I haven't seen anything but positives from all over for that deal.

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Agree. I think it's a great deal for the Bears. Getting a known WR1 in Moore is a much better haul then getting a WR in round 1. They essentially got two first rounders this year, a second, and a first next year.

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Make no mistake, it's a good haul, but I think they could have done better if they had waited. Hell, Carolina, right now, is open to shopping the top pick after just getting it, so that must mean they've already been contacted by other teams offering them more than they gave up. You can't say the Bears got a great haul when the team they traded with is all of a sudden open to trading back down.

The Bears got a good draft pick package, but the #2 they got this year was the San Fran one, not the Carolina pick so the value is closer to a 3rd. Also Moore was a #1 because he was on a bad Carolina team. His catch percentage has been below 60%, which would be worrisome for a team that isn't good at throwing the ball.

Dropping from 1 to 9 is a really big drop in value, and looking at the probabilities, the chances aren't good you will be able to grab any of the defensive players you wanted. Now if they are planning on getting an OT, and this was the move no matter what, than they moved to the correct spot. But still, to drop to #9 they should have at least gotten Carolina's #2 at the top of the 2nd round and not the San Fran one.

Everyone's been positive because it's a good deal, but I think if they had waited they would have gotten a lot better offer.

The Bears were bad at passing because they had no weapons to catch the ball, little blocking up front, and a 2nd year QB in his 2nd offensive system. None of those will be true this season. The Bears offense will put up points in 2023. As far as dropping to #9 it is lower than I expected but there is a high chance that 4 QB's will go before that pick so they will still get a Top 5 non-QB at 9 so it's not as bad as it initially sounds. Everyone said they would be on Anderson or Carter but no one really knows what the GM is thinking with that first pick. And now with Carter's little issue he may even fall to that 9th pick anyway.

For the record, the Bears wanted Moore instead of Carolina's 2025 first round pick so that shows how highly he is valued. Their 2024 first round could end up top 5 too.

Know Your Enemy said:

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The Bears were bad at passing because they had no weapons to catch the ball, little blocking up front, and a 2nd year QB in his 2nd offensive system. None of those will be true this season. The Bears offense will put up points in 2023. As far as dropping to #9 it is lower than I expected but there is a high chance that 4 QB's will go before that pick so they will still get a Top 5 non-QB at 9 so it's not as bad as it initially sounds. Everyone said they would be on Anderson or Carter but no one really knows what the GM is thinking with that first pick. And now with Carter's little issue he may even fall to that 9th pick anyway.

For the record, the Bears wanted Moore instead of Carolina's 2025 first round pick so that shows how highly he is valued. Their 2024 first round could end up top 5 too.

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Oh I understand the move, they really need help at WR and it's a bad draft to have a top 10 pick if that's one of your biggest needs. But that's making draft deals based primarily on needs, which usually doesn't end well. If they're good with DJ Moore, they probably weren't finding a better WR in the draft or in FA, so then it's a win for them.

But, how could anyone say it was a great move trading out of the top spot, when the team that traded in has all of a sudden said they're open to trading back for the right deal? That means people have reached out to them and potentially offered more than what the Bears got. Which means the Bears left value out there. So, I can only say this was a good deal for the Bears, they go what the want. But they probably should have waited to get better value. Think of it this way, Carolina is shopping the pick, how would you like to be the GM that traded away the #1 pick in the draft and the team you traded it to gets a better deal by trading the same pick again?

Not saying I think that will happen, nor am I saying this was a bad deal for the Bears. It's just less than I thought they would get, and I think they traded out way too early.

You're assuming that Carolina is being offered more than what they paid which can't be proven at this point. And I'm pretty sure they wanted to get a deal done before the FA period started so they had a better of how to fill the many holes the Bears have as best as possible. If/when Carolina trades that pick for more than what they gave up is when I will be upset. Until then I am thrilled with the deal as are an overwhelming majority of those who cover the sport for a living.

Know Your Enemy said:

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You're assuming that Carolina is being offered more than what they paid which can't be proven at this point. And I'm pretty sure they wanted to get a deal done before the FA period started so they had a better of how to fill the many holes the Bears have as best as possible. If/when Carolina trades that pick for more than what they gave up is when I will be upset. Until then I am thrilled with the deal as are an overwhelming majority of those who cover the sport for a living.

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I doubt Carolina trades out, that would be insane, but it does say a lot that they are open to something that has never happened in draft history. The only reason it would be a talking point is because they are getting offers that are tempting. But all of this assuming things, that's what makes draft season fun, every fan can be optimistic. I'm optimistic for my Dad and the Bears, I like the head coach and GM combo they have. I just think they jumped the gun on this trade and could have gotten more if they waited. But there's no way to ever be able to say if I'm right or wrong on that. Even if the trade turns out to be one of the best or worst ever, you can never know if you could have gotten more or less.

IrishAg said:

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Know Your Enemy said:

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You're assuming that Carolina is being offered more than what they paid which can't be proven at this point. And I'm pretty sure they wanted to get a deal done before the FA period started so they had a better of how to fill the many holes the Bears have as best as possible. If/when Carolina trades that pick for more than what they gave up is when I will be upset. Until then I am thrilled with the deal as are an overwhelming majority of those who cover the sport for a living.

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I doubt Carolina trades out, that would be insane, but it does say a lot that they are open to something that has never happened in draft history. The only reason it would be a talking point is because they are getting offers that are tempting. But all of this assuming things, that's what makes draft season fun, every fan can be optimistic. I'm optimistic for my Dad and the Bears, I like the head coach and GM combo they have. I just think they jumped the gun on this trade and could have gotten more if they waited. But there's no way to ever be able to say if I'm right or wrong on that. Even if the trade turns out to be one of the best or worst ever, you can never know if you could have gotten more or less.

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Maybe they are willing to trade down to 2 if the Texans are set on a specific QB and Carolina is OK with either Young or Stroud. Still wouldn't make the Bears trade a bad one.

Know Your Enemy said:

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IrishAg said:

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Know Your Enemy said:

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You're assuming that Carolina is being offered more than what they paid which can't be proven at this point. And I'm pretty sure they wanted to get a deal done before the FA period started so they had a better of how to fill the many holes the Bears have as best as possible. If/when Carolina trades that pick for more than what they gave up is when I will be upset. Until then I am thrilled with the deal as are an overwhelming majority of those who cover the sport for a living.

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I doubt Carolina trades out, that would be insane, but it does say a lot that they are open to something that has never happened in draft history. The only reason it would be a talking point is because they are getting offers that are tempting. But all of this assuming things, that's what makes draft season fun, every fan can be optimistic. I'm optimistic for my Dad and the Bears, I like the head coach and GM combo they have. I just think they jumped the gun on this trade and could have gotten more if they waited. But there's no way to ever be able to say if I'm right or wrong on that. Even if the trade turns out to be one of the best or worst ever, you can never know if you could have gotten more or less.

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Maybe they are willing to trade down to 2 if the Texans are set on a specific QB and Carolina is OK with either Young or Stroud. Still wouldn't make the Bears trade a bad one.

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lol, I said it was a good trade, so not sure why you think that would make it a bad one all of a sudden? I'm strictly talking value, have been from the beginning. I think they made a good trade, I think they could have received more if they held out. Evidence points that I could be right, but as a said, there is no evidence that can ever show I'm right or wrong. So I'm not sure what the argument is here? I guess you think this is the best trade the Bears could have made and I disagree? I think they got a good deal, but could have done better. But again, there is no way to prove one way or another about value, it's just a talking point.

Only reason I'm making this reply is that I think the Bears got a good deal (and have said so since the very beginning, worst I've called it was 'an ok deal"), and even if the QB that Carolina selects turns out to be a top 5 all time QB, I would still say it was a good deal at the time it was made. But never said anything makes this a bad deal.

Definitely sends a message…

Going to @OhioStateFB Pro Day from the @Panthers.

• Owners David & Nicole Tepper
• GM Scott Fitterer
• HC Frank Reich
• AGM Dan Morgan
• VP Samir Suleiman
• OC Thomas Brown
• QBs coach Josh McCown
• Sr ass't Jim Caldwell
• Scouting dir. Cole Spencer
• Scout Joel Patten

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 21, 2023