When will the betting markets flip for Paxton?

31,209 Views | 301 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by Teslag
VaultingChemist
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5:39p, 11/3/26
AG
I dropped 1000 on Paxton losing by less than 2.5 pts. Will pay me $2100 if he does.
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vette
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5:41p, 11/3/26
AG
markets moving hard against Paxton
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pollo hermanos
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In reply to Lathspell • 5:42p, 11/3/26
AG
Lathspell said:
Cant stand Paxton but hate Talarico, so voted Rep there. I voted libertarian just about everywhere else I could and R on the ones without a Libertarian. I actually do hope the some Republicans lose. They need to be held accountable for their bull*****


That's right my friend. We'll know soon enough if they will be.
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wessimo
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5:47p, 11/3/26
AG
Ruh roh, what just happened?


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amercer
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5:48p, 11/3/26
AG
Exit polls
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texagbeliever
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In reply to wessimo • 5:49p, 11/3/26
Shakeout to get inexperienced bettors/traders to panic react and sell before it rips.
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TxAG#2011
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5:50p, 11/3/26
Ken paxton buyers getting absolutely rugged. No relief bounce in sight.

Straight to zero.
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amercer
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5:50p, 11/3/26
AG
I mean no one knows anything, but why is it a surprise to see the gamblers basically match the polls?
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Sq 17
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5:53p, 11/3/26
If corruption is top of mind and the exit polls are representative Paxton is less likely to win
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Im Gipper
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In reply to amercer • 5:55p, 11/3/26
amercer said:
I mean no one knows anything, but why is it a surprise to see the gamblers basically match the polls?


But in many races, they don't.

I'm Gipper
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amercer
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In reply to Im Gipper • 5:56p, 11/3/26
AG
Im Gipper said:
amercer said:
I mean no one knows anything, but why is it a surprise to see the gamblers basically match the polls?


But in many races, they don't.


And are they right or wrong there?

Vegas is awesome at lines for the NFL but there are some terrible ones for DIII. So I wouldn't be surprised to see some wild stuff in markets with little action
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Bucketrunner
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5:57p, 11/3/26
$$$$$$
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Bondag
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In reply to wessimo • 5:58p, 11/3/26
AG
wessimo said:
Ruh roh, what just happened?




Cheap to bet Talarico and discourage Republicans from standing in line.
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aggiez03
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6:00p, 11/3/26
AG
Is Abbot safe? Draft Kings has 70% return on Abbot victory. $10 bet to win $17+

I haven't been watching closely, but they have him at 57% chance to win
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Queso1
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In reply to aggiez03 • 6:01p, 11/3/26
AG
Nm
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Im Gipper
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In reply to amercer • 6:02p, 11/3/26
amercer said:
Im Gipper said:
amercer said:
I mean no one knows anything, but why is it a surprise to see the gamblers basically match the polls?


But in many races, they don't.


And are they right or wrong there?

Vegas is awesome at lines for the NFL but there are some terrible ones for DIII. So I wouldn't be surprised to see some wild stuff in markets with little action


These markets are neither right nor wrong. Read the thread. They aren't polls They don't predict anything. It's been explained ad naseum

I'm Gipper
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aggiez03
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In reply to Queso1 • 6:02p, 11/3/26
AG
Queso1 said:
Nm


Kinda figure most bettors lean democrat.
I am only on there for college football and basketball fun bets.
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amercer
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In reply to Im Gipper • 6:04p, 11/3/26
AG
Im Gipper said:
amercer said:
Im Gipper said:
amercer said:
I mean no one knows anything, but why is it a surprise to see the gamblers basically match the polls?


But in many races, they don't.


And are they right or wrong there?

Vegas is awesome at lines for the NFL but there are some terrible ones for DIII. So I wouldn't be surprised to see some wild stuff in markets with little action


These markets are neither right nor wrong. Read the thread. They aren't polls They don't predict anything. It's been explained ad naseum


I'm aware of how they work. That doesn't change the fact that the bigger races will more closely follow the available information, while smaller ones can be wildly different due to less action
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aggiez03
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6:05p, 11/3/26
AG
Ha Abbot just went from 55 to 66% in the time I posted that. Flipping quickly
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GEA89
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In reply to Im Gipper • 6:05p, 11/3/26
AG
Im Gipper said:
amercer said:
Im Gipper said:
amercer said:
I mean no one knows anything, but why is it a surprise to see the gamblers basically match the polls?


But in many races, they don't.


And are they right or wrong there?

Vegas is awesome at lines for the NFL but there are some terrible ones for DIII. So I wouldn't be surprised to see some wild stuff in markets with little action


These markets are neither right nor wrong. Read the thread. They aren't polls They don't predict anything. It's been explained ad naseum


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aggiez03
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6:07p, 11/3/26
AG
Now 71% for Abbott

(On draft kings for those that didn't see earlier posts)
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Im Gipper
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6:49p, 11/3/26
Polymarket has Paxton at 22% at 648 CST. Will be interesting to see one hour from now.

I'm Gipper
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wasntme
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In reply to Lathspell • 6:53p, 11/3/26
Lathspell said:
Cant stand Paxton but hate Talarico, so voted Rep there. I voted libertarian just about everywhere else I could and R on the ones without a Libertarian. I actually do hope the some Republicans lose. They need to be held accountable for their bull*****

then do that in the primary, not in the general!!
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Im Gipper • 6:54p, 11/3/26
Im Gipper said:
Polymarket has Paxton at 22% at 648 CST. Will be interesting to see one hour from now.


I believe the .arket is reacting to Florida
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BusterAg
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7:08p, 11/3/26
AG
Paxton at 7% on Kalshi
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
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BayAg_14
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7:08p, 11/3/26
It's over.
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ktownag08
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In reply to BusterAg • 7:09p, 11/3/26
AG
BusterAg said:
Paxton at 7% on Kalshi


Or buy the dip...
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wessimo
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7:10p, 11/3/26
AG



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BusterAg
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In reply to ktownag08 • 7:12p, 11/3/26
AG
ktownag08 said:
BusterAg said:
Paxton at 7% on Kalshi


Or buy the dip...


Im tempted
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
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pollo hermanos
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7:31p, 11/3/26
AG
Have they flipped? Should be easy money
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AGHouston11
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In reply to aggiez03 • 7:34p, 11/3/26
AG
aggiez03 said:
Now 71% for Abbott

(On draft kings for those that didn't see earlier posts)


Which party did away with straight ticket voting ?
Because it's not helping Paxton
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VaterAg
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In reply to pollo hermanos • 7:34p, 11/3/26
pollo hermanos said:
Have they flipped? Should be easy money


Easy, buddy. Many people lost real money here. Probably not nice to gloat over that.
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Agsrback12
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7:35p, 11/3/26
Clearly a statement. I held my nose and voted for Paxton but this is well deserved by Trump and the Republicans. This seat can get taken back easily with a candidate who has any sort of likeablity.
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Less Evil Hank Scorpio
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7:37p, 11/3/26
AG
If draft kings is really still at >60% there's a damn good arbitrage opportunity available
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HTownAg98
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In reply to VaterAg • 7:46p, 11/3/26
VaterAg said:
pollo hermanos said:
Have they flipped? Should be easy money


Easy, buddy. Many people lost real money here. Probably not nice to gloat over that.

If you put money in a betting market and lose, you deserve what happens to you. You're a mark. Of you put money into a betting market that you can't afford to lose, then you deserve high ridicule.
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