When will the betting markets flip for Paxton?

31,064 Views | 301 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by Teslag
BusterAg
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4:39p, 10/22/26
AG
This seems like such easy money. I honestly don't understand the market.
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to BusterAg • 4:41p, 10/22/26
Who cares? Betting markets don't go to Congress.
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billydean05
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4:41p, 10/22/26
I don't know. I voted at the MSC and lines were long. Lots of 19-22 year olds voting this is Talarico leading segment. I am a little concerned in the numbers I saw,
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Im Gipper
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In reply to Ellis Wyatt • 4:42p, 10/22/26
Ellis Wyatt said:
Who cares? Betting markets don't go to Congress.

I'd say BusterAg cares. I too am interested to watch this number.


Ya know, you don't have to click a thread if its not something you are interested in.

I'm Gipper
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Captain Pablo
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In reply to billydean05 • 4:42p, 10/22/26
AG
billydean05 said:
I don't know. I voted at the MSC and lines were long. Lots of 19-22 year olds voting this is Talarico leading segment. I am a little concerned in the numbers I saw,


You should be
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BusterAg
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4:42p, 10/22/26
AG
You think students in the MSc are heavy low t man?
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Gigem314
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In reply to billydean05 • 4:44p, 10/22/26
AG
billydean05 said:
I don't know. I voted at the MSC and lines were long. Lots of 19-22 year olds voting this is Talarico leading segment. I am a little concerned in the numbers I saw,

I mean, wouldn't you expect more college aged students to be voting at a polling location that's on campus? Given that we have a higher ratio of conservative students than most public universities of our size, I'd say those are the 20 yo's you want showing up for an election.
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billydean05
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4:45p, 10/22/26
Most definitely they appeared to be.
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billydean05
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In reply to Gigem314 • 4:46p, 10/22/26
Gigem314 said:
billydean05 said:
I don't know. I voted at the MSC and lines were long. Lots of 19-22 year olds voting this is Talarico leading segment. I am a little concerned in the numbers I saw,

I mean, wouldn't you expect more college aged students to be voting at a polling location that's on campus? Given that we have a higher ratio of conservative students than most public universities of our size, I'd say those are the 20 yo's you want showing up for an election.

Did not appear to me to be major Paxton backers. The election workers at the MSC said this is the busiest and most numbers they had ever seen. More than 2024 even.
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Im Gipper
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In reply to Gigem314 • 4:47p, 10/22/26
History shows that those (all people) voting on campus are going to trend Democrat.

A conservative student body does not mean everyone is registered in Brazos County.

I'm Gipper
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Dan Scott
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4:47p, 10/22/26
AG
What happened today to make the D go up 5 points? Did a bunch of money just go on him?
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Owlagdad
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In reply to billydean05 • 4:50p, 10/22/26
billydean05 said:
I don't know. I voted at the MSC and lines were long. Lots of 19-22 year olds voting this is Talarico leading segment. I am a little concerned in the numbers I saw,

Hopefully not. but if they have taken the bait, their future is going to be worse than what it is now. Socialism is not kind.
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Hardcore Greg
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4:53p, 10/22/26
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".
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Boogie2988Ag
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In reply to Hardcore Greg • 4:56p, 10/22/26
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".


Yeah we know you are posting this 24 7 here
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Rubicante
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4:56p, 10/22/26
AG
Is A&M really as conservative as you say anymore? Last poll I saw had a pretty even split… which I guess is pretty conservative for a college campus. I don't know if they've done any polling at A&M regarding the current election.
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to Hardcore Greg • 4:58p, 10/22/26
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media.
As we all should know, social media is largely fake.

Hth
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Hardcore Greg
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In reply to Boogie2988Ag • 4:58p, 10/22/26
Boogie2988Ag said:
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".


Yeah we know you are posting this 24 7 here

Because I care about my fellow conservative brethren. I also have the political equivalent of BAS, FWIW.
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Captain Pablo
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In reply to Hardcore Greg • 4:58p, 10/22/26
AG
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".


There's a lot of conservatives pissed off about the Data Centers. You think those rural areas being screwed up are democrats ?

Talarico is going to win

I think Abbott wins but it will be close. He's pissed off a lot of conservatives as well



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Funky Winkerbean
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In reply to Captain Pablo • 4:59p, 10/22/26
AG
Captain Pablo said:
billydean05 said:
I don't know. I voted at the MSC and lines were long. Lots of 19-22 year olds voting this is Talarico leading segment. I am a little concerned in the numbers I saw,


You should be

Are you not concerned that you're presumably an adult and your politics align with kids?
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Captain Pablo
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In reply to Funky Winkerbean • 4:59p, 10/22/26
AG
What are my politics ?
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Hardcore Greg
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In reply to Ellis Wyatt • 4:59p, 10/22/26
Ellis Wyatt said:
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media.

As we all should know, social media is largely fake.

Hth

I am talking about real people that I know who live in nice zipcodes and who i never would have been pegged as liberal at all voicing support. Let's pray I am wrong, and by a lot. Just like I love to eat crow when i predict an Aggie loss and they surprise me, I would love to be dead wrong here.
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Boogie2988Ag
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In reply to Captain Pablo • 4:59p, 10/22/26
Captain Pablo said:
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".


There's a lot of conservatives pissed off about the Data Centers. You think those rural areas being screwed up are democrats ?

Talarico is going to win

I think Abbott wins but it will be close. He's pissed off a lot of conservatives as well





If you vote for talrico you were never conservative
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Rubicante
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In reply to Funky Winkerbean • 5:00p, 10/22/26
AG
Funky Winkerbean said:
Captain Pablo said:
billydean05 said:
I don't know. I voted at the MSC and lines were long. Lots of 19-22 year olds voting this is Talarico leading segment. I am a little concerned in the numbers I saw,


You should be

Are you not concerned that you're presumably an adult and your politics align with kids?


What age does adult start for you?
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to Captain Pablo • 5:00p, 10/22/26
Captain Pablo said:

There's a lot of conservatives pissed off about the Data Centers


Then they're dumber than I give them credit for being. Particularly if they don't understand that we need to lead the AI race, and oh yeah, not be a socialist **** hole.
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Hardcore Greg
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In reply to Captain Pablo • 5:00p, 10/22/26
Captain Pablo said:
What are my politics ?

You are a libertarian/anarchist who illegally rows people across the southern border for chump change.
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Gigem314
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In reply to Hardcore Greg • 5:01p, 10/22/26
AG
Hardcore Greg said:
I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media.

I don't think very many are assuming Paxton has it in the bag at this moment. But I think there are quite a few who think Talarico does based on things like visuals, unreliable polling, and social media. If we believed what we saw on social media, no Democrat would ever lose an election. Doesn't mean this won't be close though.
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Captain Pablo
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In reply to Boogie2988Ag • 5:01p, 10/22/26
AG
Boogie2988Ag said:
Captain Pablo said:
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".


There's a lot of conservatives pissed off about the Data Centers. You think those rural areas being screwed up are democrats ?

Talarico is going to win

I think Abbott wins but it will be close. He's pissed off a lot of conservatives as well





If you vote for talrico you were never conservative


Who said I voted for Talarico?

I said I think he will win

Dang, you people can't read worth a ****
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Captain Pablo
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In reply to Hardcore Greg • 5:01p, 10/22/26
AG
Hardcore Greg said:
Captain Pablo said:
What are my politics ?

You are a libertarian/anarchist who illegally rows people across the southern border for chump change.


Yeah. You got me in a box there

I do work cheap though
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Captain Pablo
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In reply to Ellis Wyatt • 5:03p, 10/22/26
AG
Ellis Wyatt said:
Captain Pablo said:

There's a lot of conservatives pissed off about the Data Centers


Then they're dumber than I give them credit for being. Particularly if they don't understand that we need to lead the AI race, and oh yeah, not be a socialist **** hole.


lol. If that makes you sleep better
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Ellis Wyatt
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In reply to Captain Pablo • 5:04p, 10/22/26
Really nothing about making me sleep better. Just facts. I grant that people are becoming more detached from reality by the day.
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Boogie2988Ag
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In reply to Captain Pablo • 5:05p, 10/22/26
Captain Pablo said:
Boogie2988Ag said:
Captain Pablo said:
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".


There's a lot of conservatives pissed off about the Data Centers. You think those rural areas being screwed up are democrats ?

Talarico is going to win

I think Abbott wins but it will be close. He's pissed off a lot of conservatives as well





If you vote for talrico you were never conservative


Who said I voted for Talarico?

I said I think he will win

Dang, you people can't read worth a ****


Are you blind ? Did say you ? Just responding to your dumb post
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Hardcore Greg
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In reply to Boogie2988Ag • 5:08p, 10/22/26
Boogie2988Ag said:
Captain Pablo said:
Boogie2988Ag said:
Captain Pablo said:
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".


There's a lot of conservatives pissed off about the Data Centers. You think those rural areas being screwed up are democrats ?

Talarico is going to win

I think Abbott wins but it will be close. He's pissed off a lot of conservatives as well





If you vote for talrico you were never conservative


Who said I voted for Talarico?

I said I think he will win

Dang, you people can't read worth a ****


Are you blind ? Did say you ? Just responding to your dumb post

I wish I could bet how long your current Texags handle lasts on Kalshi. I'd probably set the O/U at 24 more hrs.
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Martin Q. Blank
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5:09p, 10/22/26
2020 RCP average +1.3 Trump, actual +5.8 Trump (4.5 net difference)



2020 RCP average +6.5 Cornyn, actual +9.8 (3.3 net difference)



2024 RCP average +9.0 Trump, actual +13.6 Trump (4.6 net difference)



2024 RCP average +4.4 Cruz, actual +8.5 Cruz (4.1 net difference)



2026 RCP average Talarico +1.5, I'd predict Paxton by at lease +1.8

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5:09p, 10/22/26
AG
Talarico ain't gonna win.
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Boogie2988Ag
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In reply to Hardcore Greg • 5:10p, 10/22/26
Hardcore Greg said:
Boogie2988Ag said:
Captain Pablo said:
Boogie2988Ag said:
Captain Pablo said:
Hardcore Greg said:
Been trying to warn errbody. I think the people who think Paxton has got it in the bag are off of social media. They do not realize how many seemingly normal, educated, successful middle and upper class moms are all in on Talarico. Also young people. It's insane and infuriating, but I have a horrible feeling about this one.

Also, the narratives forced by the left (ICE deportations/altercatons etc., inflation, Data Centers etc etc) seem to be galvanizing the left and the politically stunted "moderate".


There's a lot of conservatives pissed off about the Data Centers. You think those rural areas being screwed up are democrats ?

Talarico is going to win

I think Abbott wins but it will be close. He's pissed off a lot of conservatives as well





If you vote for talrico you were never conservative


Who said I voted for Talarico?

I said I think he will win

Dang, you people can't read worth a ****


Are you blind ? Did say you ? Just responding to your dumb post

I wish I could bet how long your current Texags handle lasts on Kalshi. I'd probably set the O/U at 24 more hrs.


Hardcore Greg definitely a tarico voter
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