I hope you're right. I don't like what I'm seeing.

Abbot will win. He's 80/20 in betting markets.

But the Senate race is becoming extremely concerning:
https://kalshi.com/markets/senatetx/texas-senate-race/senatetx-26

Siena College leans left. It missed Trump's support in 2020 and 2024 in more than a few states. If their state polling in 2024 had been dead on, then Harris would be President. They seem to poll better when they poll in their region.

Emerson had the race basically tied just yesterday.

And any poll which has Abbott losing is crap. The Democrats aren't doing anything to support their candidate. They're all in on Talafreako and probably a few House candidates.

Dip**** libs are gonna get stomped
Eot

Fair.

I think in the end the republicans will squeak out wins in the big races. Where the surprises will be are down ballot in races that the republicans won't spend 100 million dollars on. Thats where apathy from republicans and the national mood will get some democrats across the line

A CBS poll reported the same numbers a week ago.

And Hillary and Harris will win the Presidency, the polls said.

AggieVictor10 said:

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Dip**** libs are gonna get stomped
Eot

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Nah. Republicans will lose the house and the senate unfortunately. I don't see any way Abbott loses though.

Paxton had consistently been the lowest vote getter when it comes to statewide elections.

Should be no surprise that translates to a weak Senate candidate. You're pushing for the guy that 7-8% of Texas republicans have passed over relative to the other statewide officer holders.

So Abbott is going to win but Rs are not going to vote down ballot for Paxton out of spite...? I don't see voters going Abbott/Talarico.

yes, what does an Abbott-Talarico voter look like so to speak?

Kashchei said:

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So Abbott is going to win but Rs are not going to vote down ballot for Paxton out of spite...? I don't see voters going Abbott/Talarico.

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It will be a lot of Abbott and abstain on the Senate vote. Not Abbott and Talarico.

Meh. I flag all political text msgs, on both sides, as spam. Except when they ask who I'm voting for and the I always choose the dim.

Whoop2oo1 said:

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Abbott will win by double digits. Paxton will win just under double digits. Someone needs to hold theses so called "polls" accountable.

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This is the dog and pony show that goes on every other year. "So and so is really is going to win this year". They are all full of crap.

Whoop2oo1 said:

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Abbott will win by double digits. Paxton will win just under double digits. Someone needs to hold theses so called "polls" accountable.

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Abbott won't win by double and Paxton, if he wins will be by the skin of his teeth. And I pray he does. Paxton was a terrible choice even if he was better than Cornyn. We have to put up better candidates.

First few people acknowledge that they support Paxton. 2nd what does a liberal arts school know about Texas politics.

There were a boatload of people that would never admit publicly or to polls they'd vote for Trump prior to the 2016 election, but dang sure did. Largely because of the same reasons with Paxton.

People, except for Leftists and liberal White women don't like freaks like Talerico, in general. Leftist like them because, well, he's clearly one of theirs. Liberal White women because virtue signaling is of the utmost importance.

Paxton will win. Abbot will win.

The Left will queue up the next freak in a few years. It will take them a while to find one to outdo this one, but they will find it.

Yesterday said:

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Whoop2oo1 said:

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Abbott will win by double digits. Paxton will win just under double digits. Someone needs to hold theses so called "polls" accountable.

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Abbott won't win by double and Paxton, if he wins will be by the skin of his teeth. And I pray he does. Paxton was a terrible choice even if he was better than Cornyn. We have to put up better candidates.

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There was one in the primary.

DonHenley said:

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This is a bad poll and should be ignored. Abbott is not down by 4.

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There's no way hinojoso is up on Abbott. No one even knows who she is. These polls are psyops. I'm getting more and more convinced of this every election cycle.

In the Paxton race, I'm worried by the fact that a repeat statewide officeholder was unable to raise in-state money. We don't normally need to import money into Texas to support a Republican.

Normally, when the democrats are raising money out of state and dumping it into Texas, I see that as an admission of a moribund ticket.

Now, we seem to be in that same trap.

My neighborhood in Georgetown is FULL of Talarico, Hinojosa and every other Dem candidate's signs. Two, count'em, two Paxton signs.

I understand that the majority of R's don't post signs. That said, I've never seen this level of Dem sign activity in my 40 years of living here.

Don't we have a Paxton v. Talarico thread, or is this just a place for Talarico enthusiasts to celebrate him?

The no show vote because of the dirty politician messaging around Paxton are going to keep non-crazy white women from pulling the lever for Paxton. Not that they will vote for Talarico but they won't "dirty" themselves by voting for Paxton. Could be closer than we think not because of Talarico popularity but due to effective negative messaging about Paxton to women and the men that serve them.

Polls are but weapons to be used by Dems to help influence elections.

Thus said Rush Limbaugh.

TRD-Ferguson said:

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My neighborhood in Georgetown is FULL of Talarico, Hinojosa and every other Dem candidate's signs. Two, count'em, two Paxton signs.

I understand that the majority of R's don't post signs. That said, I've never seen this level of Dem sign activity in my 40 years of living here.

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Considering the number of Austin transplants there now it doesn't seem that surprising.

I remember our own legal drug pusher convinced Trump was winning in 2020 due to all the signs he see all over the nation.

The polls right now are wild. Either the Republicans really are about to get trounced or almost every single poll out there is fake news. If the Republicans actually do better than the polls say they are going to do, then you can almost literally write off every single poll in existence.

Looking at RCP because it's more of an aggregator and will at least somewhat normalize individual polls, the prospects for R's looks terrible. Dialing into Paxton-Talarico and, ironically, the poll that shows the biggest advantage for Talarico is the Texas A&M poll having him at +6. Overall, Talarico is +2.9. JFC people are stupid.

RCP predicts a 50/50 Senate and +8.6 average gain for Dems in the House.

YouBet said:

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The polls right now are wild. Either the Republicans really are about to get trounced or almost every single poll out there is fake news. If the Republicans actually do better than the polls say they are going to do, then you can almost literally write off every single poll in existence.

Looking at RCP because it's more of an aggregator and will at least somewhat normalize individual polls, the prospects for R's looks terrible. Dialing into Paxton-Talarico and, ironically, the poll that shows the biggest advantage for Talarico is the Texas A&M poll having him at +6. Overall, Talarico is +2.9. JFC people are stupid.

RCP predicts a 50/50 Senate and +8.6 average gain for Dems in the House.

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This board has been through how many election cycles?

These polls are just tools used to try and depress the conservative vote.