Grapesoda2525 said:

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YouBet said:

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The polls right now are wild. Either the Republicans really are about to get trounced or almost every single poll out there is fake news. If the Republicans actually do better than the polls say they are going to do, then you can almost literally write off every single poll in existence.

Looking at RCP because it's more of an aggregator and will at least somewhat normalize individual polls, the prospects for R's looks terrible. Dialing into Paxton-Talarico and, ironically, the poll that shows the biggest advantage for Talarico is the Texas A&M poll having him at +6. Overall, Talarico is +2.9. JFC people are stupid.

RCP predicts a 50/50 Senate and +8.6 average gain for Dems in the House.

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This board has been through how many election cycles?

These polls are just tools used to try and depress the conservative vote.

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I think that's generally true, but I'm not sure I've seen such a one-sided trend since Hillary-Trump and I think that was unique situation. Seems like best case for R's is that a lot of races are extremely close that shouldn't be. We are going to find out soon enough.

amercer said:

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I think in the end the republicans will squeak out wins in the big races. Where the surprises will be are down ballot in races that the republicans won't spend 100 million dollars on. Thats where apathy from republicans and the national mood will get some democrats across the line

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Which races?

Serotonin said:

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Abbot will win. He's 80/20 in betting markets.

But the Senate race is becoming extremely concerning:
https://kalshi.com/markets/senatetx/texas-senate-race/senatetx-26

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The disturbing trend in that graph is that gap has widened in the last week.

If the polls really are wrong, then the betting market should smell the rat.

YouBet said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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YouBet said:

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The polls right now are wild. Either the Republicans really are about to get trounced or almost every single poll out there is fake news. If the Republicans actually do better than the polls say they are going to do, then you can almost literally write off every single poll in existence.

Looking at RCP because it's more of an aggregator and will at least somewhat normalize individual polls, the prospects for R's looks terrible. Dialing into Paxton-Talarico and, ironically, the poll that shows the biggest advantage for Talarico is the Texas A&M poll having him at +6. Overall, Talarico is +2.9. JFC people are stupid.

RCP predicts a 50/50 Senate and +8.6 average gain for Dems in the House.

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This board has been through how many election cycles?

These polls are just tools used to try and depress the conservative vote.

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I think that's generally true, but I'm not sure I've seen such a one-sided trend since Hillary-Trump and I think that was unique situation. Seems like best case for R's is that a lot of races are extremely close that shouldn't be. We are go/ing to find out soon enough.

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You realize that's a troll post, right?

Trump is on a historically bad run right now. I'm afraid this isn't just ignore the poll situation this cycle. Senate could easily go from 53 R to 53 D. Losing the house is a foregone conclusion at this point

DonHenley said:

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Senate could easily go from 53 R to 53 D.

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Really? Outline how that easily happens.

NC is gonna flip. Maybe R could flip Michigan but no other realistic flips. Ohio is probably gonna flip. Iowa is a hold. Maine, Alaska, Texas are coin flips, but could be lost.

Boogie2988Ag said:

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YouBet said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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YouBet said:

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The polls right now are wild. Either the Republicans really are about to get trounced or almost every single poll out there is fake news. If the Republicans actually do better than the polls say they are going to do, then you can almost literally write off every single poll in existence.

Looking at RCP because it's more of an aggregator and will at least somewhat normalize individual polls, the prospects for R's looks terrible. Dialing into Paxton-Talarico and, ironically, the poll that shows the biggest advantage for Talarico is the Texas A&M poll having him at +6. Overall, Talarico is +2.9. JFC people are stupid.

RCP predicts a 50/50 Senate and +8.6 average gain for Dems in the House.

---

This board has been through how many election cycles?

These polls are just tools used to try and depress the conservative vote.

---

I think that's generally true, but I'm not sure I've seen such a one-sided trend since Hillary-Trump and I think that was unique situation. Seems like best case for R's is that a lot of races are extremely close that shouldn't be. We are go/ing to find out soon enough.

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You realize that's a troll post, right?

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He's a known drug addict so you never if he's on a bender and talking crazy or what.

DonHenley said:

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NC is gonna flip. Maybe R could flip Michigan but no other realistic flips. Ohio is probably gonna flip. Iowa is a hold. Maine, Alaska, Texas are coin flips, but could be lost.

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NC gets you to 48
OH gets you to 49
ME gets you to 50
AL gets you to 51
TX gets you to 52


So that's 3 as you say coin flips (12.5% chance) to get to still be one short of the 53


"Easily" indeed

BMX Bandit said:

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DonHenley said:

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NC is gonna flip. Maybe R could flip Michigan but no other realistic flips. Ohio is probably gonna flip. Iowa is a hold. Maine, Alaska, Texas are coin flips, but could be lost.

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NC gets you to 48
OH gets you to 49
ME gets you to 50
AL gets you to 51
TX gets you to 52


So that's 3 as you say coin flips (12.5% chance) to get to still be one short of the 53


"Easily" indeed

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What's interesting is that the Dems are freaking about MN and NH potentially flipping Red.


While KS, NE, and IA look like problems for Red.

Old Sarge said:

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Liberal White women because virtue signaling is of the utmost importance.

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Eve and a certain snake come to mind.

Stand corrected. To go from 53 R to 48R is.still terrible

Nebraska dem candidate for senator just had a 'deplorable comments' moment

Boogie2988Ag said:

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Nebraska dem candidate for senator just had a 'deplorable comments' moment

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Virginia AG stated he wanted to murder his opponent and children. He still won.

Democrats have no ethics or morals. Those kind of moments no longer matter.

Vestal_Flame said:

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In the Paxton race, I'm worried by the fact that a repeat statewide officeholder was unable to raise in-state money. We don't normally need to import money into Texas to support a Republican.

Normally, when the democrats are raising money out of state and dumping it into Texas, I see that as an admission of a moribund ticket.

Now, we seem to be in that same trap.

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Paxton got $67MM committed to his campaign this week. It's going to be an air war until the election.

These races are going to hinge on how many republicans stay home. They have a built-in 10% edge in statewide races. If enough people stay home, it's going to impact the down ballot races. But, now you get to add in that people now know who Bo French is, and that's another kink that gets added into this.

Heard on a podcast today that republicans are trying their damnest to Leon Lett this election cycle. That's a pretty apt description.

Maroon Dawn said:

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There's virtually no enthusiasm for Tallicreepo compared to Beto

No bumper stickers, no signs

And you can not convince me the black and Hispanic vote will turn out for his twinkie heretical candidacy

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While I agree the differences perceived between the two would suggest worse vote totals, THIS election is a whole different animal IMHO.

I believe the Dems' plan this year is to create conditions & narratives to sell the idea of a "record turnout" like during COVID. The 1.5 MILLION voters added to Texas' suspension list is a drop in the bucket compared to the actual total of new registrants that have been added to voter rolls within the past 16 months.

In 2024, we wondered where all those voters had gone that elected Biden in 2020; well, it seems the Dems have found them just in time for 2026 Midterms!!!

It's the only play left in many red states that gerrymandered districts (often pursuant to Court Order) to ensure a Republican seat. However, given the absence of motivated poll-watchers to "prevent the steal", the Dems' moronic sprint towards Socialism might become a reality for Texas that's ushered-in by an epidemic of voter apathy that's further fatigued by all the global unrest, AS WELL AS DEMOCRAT SANCTIONED VOTER FRAUD!

Pete Hegseth was at the A&M game on Sat and his introduction received a very muted response and definitely not the loud welcome we have had for other politicians in the past. I think it may be a sign that the apathy from the R's may be historically high for the election and for that reason I do think they could lose.

Nickw8586 said:

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Pete Hegseth was at the A&M game on Sat and his introduction received a very muted response and definitely not the loud welcome we have had for other politicians in the past. I think it may be a sign that the apathy from the R's may be historically high for the election and for that reason I do think they could lose.

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Hegseth is not a politician. He's a cabinet secretary.

To be fair, the only ones who enjoyed that game were wearing blue and white. The crowd was surely in a bad mood by halftime.

Call your office, Nate Silver. You’re already out of date. pic.twitter.com/ozMk3Dgzt9

— Chris (@chriswithans) September 20, 2026

Nate is so good at his job dawg https://t.co/iiw25xJRD4 pic.twitter.com/BhcksWUp2H

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 19, 2026

The leftist poll industry is highly amusing.