This is not what 'winning' looks like.

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In practice, Canadian goods, services and workers for those industries could eventually move frictionlessly between Europe and America's northern neighbor, blurring the lines of where the EU's economic borders end. In conversations with France, whose president, Emmanuel Macron, speaks to Carney often, the idea has even come up to allow Canadians to live and work in Europe visa-free, two officials familiar with those discussions said.

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https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/canada-alliance-eu-carney-276f1778?st=ytakB2&reflink=article_copyURL_share

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Two eventsPresident Trump's effort to gain control of Greenland and his war on Iranjolted more European leaders to share Carney's logic and urgency. Already speaking regularly to Stubb, Macron and Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Stre, the Canadian leader also began lobbying more Trump-friendly leaders, including Meloni. Early on, she was cautious about antagonizing Trump. After the president posted an AI-generated image of himself as pope in May, then claimed Meloni had begged him for a picture together, she changed tack. She now speaks to Carney more often than Trump, European officials said.

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The one graph says it all. The EU cannot replace the US for CAN exports. Carney is going to bone Candan with his stupid ideas and its going to hurt the US immensely but it'll cripple Canada.

Trying to make a drastic major shift in alignment and neither side is ready for it. The EU will drag their feet forever and the US can respond much quicker and Canada will be left holding the bag. Hes gambling on midterm elections but the US can wait a few months before reacting. The EU will take years to make any significant moved.

Well, I guess that's slightly better than them aligning with China.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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The one graph says it all. The EU cannot replace the US for CAN exports. Carney is going to bone Candan with his stupid ideas and its going to hurt the US immensely but it'll cripple Canada.

Trying to make a drastic major shift in alignment and neither side is ready for it. The EU will drag their feet forever and the US can respond much quicker and Canada will be left holding the bag. Hes gambling on midterm elections but the US can wait a few months before reacting. The EU will take years to make any significant moved.

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Canada is irrelevant to the world and with their birth rate they are headed for even more irrelevancy .

I am hesitant to agree that the second largest market for US exports is irrelevant.

Vestal_Flame said:

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I am hesitant to agree that the second largest market for US exports is irrelevant.

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They arent irrelevant. However, Carney is off the res on this move. Hell wants to buuld a west-east pipeline...that will take so long to build and in the meantime the US will retaliate. Canada has so much more to lose and theyre trying to realign with nations that cant absorb their exports.

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. Carney is off the res on this move.

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Agreed. Carney thinks that he is Talleyrand, but he has the strategic acumen of Vergennes.

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there's 2,500 miles between Canada and Europe. That doesn't allow for day to day or even week to week trade.

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Yeah, my personal opinion is that Carney is trying to work out his personal Brexit trauma by adding some British subjects back into the EU.

Given that you can't simultaneously be a member of NAFTA and the EU, the commercial logic is… flawed. You should always seek integration with the closer market, especially when it shares your dominant language and legal framework. That is cold economic reality.

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They cry about the idea of losing sovereignty to the US but are basically begging to be a vassal state of Brussels on the other side of the world.

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I _suspect_ that Carney, as a central banker, feels greater cultural alignment with Brussels technocracy than with the hard business of politics in Ottawa. But that is mere suspicion.

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Nothing will drive Alberta out quicker than the idea of having to surrender to EU O&G regulations

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That is a profoundly interesting twist.

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we subsidize their defense because it makes you feel good

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If you go look at the globe from the top and think about strategic bombing for 60 seconds, you may suddenly feel less hostile about the idea of subsidizing Canadian defense.

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. letting Canada screw us over in trade,

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The total US trade deficit with Canada works out to something like $100/person. Let's put that in perspective. That will not even cover a full night "south of the border" at the Windsor Ballet.

I guess you grew tired of all of the facts destroying the ideations about Carney's trade war 'win' on the other big thread about how Carney has screwed Canada.

With USMCA termination now pending a new bilateral with Mexico, this genius idea to replace the US market for exports while somehow being able to ship EU goods tariff free to this US is equally insane to his ideas of special continued access to the US market while restricting American goods to his, and trans-shipping Chinese steel/lumber etc.

He's really terrible at choosing allies to 'fight Trump.' Doug Ford, Macron, IRGC, CCP-defense talks?

🚨Debunking Canadian Dairy Claims:

➡️Claim 1: “American dairy farmers never hit the 250% tariff. We never charge your dairy farmers that!”

Answer: Because U.S. farmers stay under the quota on purpose. They self-restrict. They could easily blow past it. They don’t, because… pic.twitter.com/antYQQvGUf

— Cecile Shaw (@CecileShaw) September 13, 2026

Food inflation is a disproportionate, and huge problem now for Canadians, and it's getting worse.

A $2.5 trillion country does not dictate terms to a $32 trillion one.

That is the whole argument. Canada in U.S. dollars. The United States. China is around $21 trillion and still a distant second. Our entire export book south is about 1.5 percent of their GDP. Their demand is a… pic.twitter.com/33aS8XzCEl

— JayGen 𝕏 er🇨🇦 (@JayGenXer) September 12, 2026

Putting this American-home/wife/college kids/business-owning clown in charge of a country was akin to the US electing Low-T Talarico president. Canada though has been a lousy, dishonest trading partner for over 70 years (see VDH video/post above) so this is not really unsurprising.

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I guess you grew tired of all of the facts destroying the ideations about Carney's trade war 'win' on the other big thread about how Carney has screwed Canada.

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Nobody seems to be winning the trade war. Nobody is better off.

The discussion of Canada joining the EU probably deserves a separate thread. By its nature, the trade war is transitory.

Accession, or some limited imitation of accession, would result in a more permanent realignment of geopolitics.

They act just like a European nation so might as well become one.

Waffledynamics said:

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More Indians and Chinese for Europe, then?

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And Africans for Canada and by extension the U.S. We loose.

ts5641 said:

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They act just like a European nation so might as well become one.

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I would prefer drawing Canada closer into the orbit of DC, rather than Brussels. NAFTA was the ultimate triumph of the Monroe Doctrine, and I am displeased to see that triumph slowly unraveling. The goal of our strategy in North America should be to increase the magnitude of our American influence throughout (all 22 of) the other countries on our continent (and in the Caribbean).

I am suspicious of a US approach to diplomacy and trade that reduces our ability to influence the policy of our neighbors.

Your point on "They act just like a European nation" is well-taken. As we were walking down the street in Quebec in July, my daughter observed that Canadians are cosplaying daily life in Europe. I am fascinated by the extent to which their evolution has diverged from our own, in spite of the fact that they were approaching roughly the same geographic endowments with roughly the same cultural, economic, and political heritage.

The other tricky question on Canada, which this thread raises, is separatism.

The cultural difference between Montreal and Calgary feels a great deal wider than anything that I see in the United States. Only 15% of Montreal speaks English at home, and Quebec is majority-catholic. 90% of Calgary speaks English at home, and only 20% of the population is Catholic. At work, Calgary feels like Houston and Toronto feels like Chicago. Montreal is does not feel like the same country.

My wife observed, also on this same trip during the summer, that she perceived contempt from the locals in Quebec, based on the fact that she did not speak French. I found it interesting that she did not say that she perceived contempt on the basis of the fact that we are obviously Americans.

When I was a kid, 48% of Quebec voted 'yes' on a referendum for separation. A similar movement, guided by polar opposite policy concerns, seems to be gathering support in Alberta.

Carney arrived with a minority government, IIRC.

Carney may be a genius, but a guy (1) running a minority government (2) in a country with a tendency toward disintegration over (3) a geographically concentrated cultural and linguistic fracture is a guy with very few appealing options.

I don't claim to understand Canadian politics. That said, if you've visited cities in Canada from end to end, the problem is strikingly obvious.

Canada actually runs a deficit, which has been improving (from Canada's perspective) with the EU, so this will probably ultimately reverse that tide, if Canadian businesses have to adopt EU-compliant energy/labor/environmental standards.

We will never be part of the EU, and Europe will never replace the U.S. Geography matters. Canada does nearly $1 trillion in trade with the Americans, supporting about 2.1 million jobs here. But Europe is still a real opportunity: shrink the EU trade deficit, sell more Canadian,… pic.twitter.com/xye3GYjYYH

— Ryan Williams 🇨🇦 | The Competition Guy (@Ryan_r_Williams) September 9, 2026

And that's still only 8 percent of Canada's trade.

🇺🇸 Canada-US trade: $3.6 BILLION every single day.

🇪🇺 Canada-EU trade: $161.9 billion all year.

💡 The US does in 45 days what the EU does in 365.

🔢 75.9% of ALL Canadian exports go to America.

🌍 The EU is 8% of our trade.

✈️ Carney flew to Brussels to announce our new… pic.twitter.com/JRUSP6lDOl

— wealthmoose (@wealthmoose) September 7, 2026

Basically a rounding error.

Canada is basically a collection of city states. They have 41m people. 61% of those live in the east in Ontario and Quebec alone. And then 3/4 of the population live in the metro areas along the border of the US.

Canada separating from us and trying to join the EU is straight idiocy. They will lose jobs, degrade their supply chains, and add even more regulatory burden to an already regulation intensive economy as a result. It makes zero sense to try and separate from the US on a trade perspective.

They all piss and moan about Trump...Trump will be gone in 3 years. Negotiate now and move on. He won't be here forever and the next admin is going to be more amenable to them no matter who it is.

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. They will lose jobs, degrade their supply chains, and add even more regulatory burden to an already regulation intensive economy as a result. It makes zero sense to try and separate from the US on a trade perspective.

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That's pretty much how I see it.

To Carney's credit, he has played the conflict with Trump in a manner that has solidified his coalition at home.

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Canada and Associate Membership of the European Union

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It's as if Canada carefully evaluates all options, then deliberately pick the worst one.

Vestal_Flame said:

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. They will lose jobs, degrade their supply chains, and add even more regulatory burden to an already regulation intensive economy as a result. It makes zero sense to try and separate from the US on a trade perspective.

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That's pretty much how I see it.

To Carney's credit, he has played the conflict with Trump in a manner that has solidified his coalition at home.

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What does he care? His kids go to Harvard and his money is in US markets.That plus pension for life. Guy is completely insulated.

Hell if I know.

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It's as if Canada carefully evaluates all options, then deliberately pick the worst one.

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Their value system is different from ours.

Yep.

Europe is getting hammered by China Shock 2.0.

Cheap, increasingly sophisticated Chinese EVs and manufactured goods are putting enormous pressure on European factories, jobs and entire industries.

Europe is now scrambling to protect its industrial base.

And Canada looks at… pic.twitter.com/4CxWjQlPwk

— 🇨🇦 Antonio Tweets (@AntonioTweets2) September 13, 2026

And Canada has in truth, as with Europe, been de-industrializing for many years. It's already an unsustainable economy, full stop, absent dramatic trade barriers, which the EU relationship shift cannot possibly change.

Canada: The industrial implosion

Investment in industrial machinery and equipment (volumes) - by National Bank pic.twitter.com/KGPK39fBUD

— Daniel Foch (@danielfoch) September 17, 2025

Total incompetence, negligence, and stupidity by Canada.

How can they look at what VW is having to do because of China and say, "Let's do that!"

Morons.

It's all politics for Carney. It motivates the French canadians (and their 3rd world immigrant population) to 'fight Trump.' He could care less about the long term impacts, or Alberta.

Alberta shares a land border with the largest economy on Earth. 88.5% of our exports go to the U.S.

The EU gets roughly 1% and Brussels is 7,300 km away, across an ocean.

Yet Carney wants deeper alignment with Europe while sabotaging our U.S. relationship.

This is exactly why… pic.twitter.com/iJwBlUcFnv

— Rise Of Alberta (@RiseOfAlberta) September 13, 2026

He's going to give a speech this week to the European Parliament I believe, about how 'the next world order will be built in Europe.'

"Carney—who studied in Europe, met his wife in the UK and ran the Bank of England for seven years—is placing a counter-bet that he can shift the country... back toward the Old Continent." - And his brother is the Chief Operating Officer for the Household of the next King.💁‍♂️ https://t.co/0pBurni1vp

— Mark Warner (@MAAWLAW) September 13, 2026

Always follow the money. He's as corrupt as the Biden familia is/was, imho.
ETA (but only once):

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The United States is next door. Our railways, pipelines, electricity grids, manufacturing supply chains and energy markets have been integrated for generations. Even after the trade fight intensified, 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports still went to the United States in 2025.

And Canada already has CETA with the European Union. Roughly 98% of EU tariff lines on Canadian goods became duty-free when CETA took effect, eventually rising to about 99%. If Canadian companies see profitable opportunities in Europe, they already have extraordinarily good market access.

So what exactly do we gain from some invented "associate membership" beyond CETA?

Potentially European regulatory obligations, political entanglements, financial contributions and pressure to harmonize Canadian rules with decisions made in Brussels, all to sell more goods across an ocean to markets that cannot duplicate the geographic advantage of the United States.

Norway rejected EU membership twice. Iceland opened accession negotiations and eventually walked away without joining. Both understood that you can have close economic relations with Europe without surrendering unnecessary national autonomy.

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