Yes. Spend less otherwise turmoil we don't want will occur. The theater kids will be disappointed at the final outcome.

Canvasback said:

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HTownAg98 said:

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You could fix all the fraud, and it would amount to taking a piss in the ocean. The entire problem is we spend way too much money.

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And the party in power is????????

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Liberal

DeschutesAg said:

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There's a reason the Democrats produce good economies and always have to clean up the Republican Party's messes.

The Republican Party's economic and fiscal theory, beliefs, practices, and dogma have always been a house of cards.

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Gaslighting 101

Kozmozag said:

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If we continue down this path we have about 20 years before economic collapse. We cannot run trillion dollar deficit s. We are 120% debt to gdp.

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We won't collapse. There will be severe austerity though.

It'll look like Greece back in 2010 but worse. It took about 10 years for Greece to recover. Getting back to 2008 employment levels took almost 18 years!

Greece cut public wages and pensions (this won't be done here if the Dems are in charge when it happens), raised taxes, slashed public investment, and deregulated labor markets.

Real GDP fell by about a quarter, unemployment peaked around 28%, and poverty and emigration blew thru the roof.

The difference is that Greece is not diverse. We're in for a lot more strife and division. Lots of pain is coming.

DeschutesAg said:

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There's a reason the Democrats produce good economies and always have to clean up the Republican Party's messes.

The Republican Party's economic and fiscal theory, beliefs, practices, and dogma have always been a house of cards.

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The two people who starred this eat their brisket with ketchup.

One word. Robotics.

Thank me later

M1 is up 10.3% in the last 12 months.
M2 is up 5.4% in the last 12 months.
Adding another $1T for "dividends" will change the M2 growth to around 11.2% (note: I use $1T because the $1.2T "dividend" is supposedly coming out of the $0.2T in tariffs collected)
New cash has a 12-18 month lag in inflation, so current CPI doesn't yet include all of the last 12 months M2 growth
Bayesian VAR and Stock-Watson models (which both filter out more short term noise than standard DSGE models) estimate a new $1.2T shock on top of realized M2 growth would spike inflation to 6.5-7.5%

Dobro Turtlebane said:

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M1 is up 10.3% in the last 12 months.
M2 is up 5.4% in the last 12 months.
Adding another $1T for "dividends" will change the M2 growth to around 11.2% (note: I use $1T because the $1.2T "dividend" is supposedly coming out of the $0.2T in tariffs collected)
New cash has a 12-18 month lag in inflation, so current CPI doesn't yet include all of the last 12 months M2 growth
Bayesian VAR and Stock-Watson models (which both filter out more short term noise than standard DSGE models) estimate a new $1.2T shock on top of realized M2 growth would spike inflation to 6.5-7.5%

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Which is a large reason why, when Trump pumped almost a trillion dollars into the economy via the PPP, we saw high inflation under Biden.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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Dobro Turtlebane said:

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M1 is up 10.3% in the last 12 months.
M2 is up 5.4% in the last 12 months.
Adding another $1T for "dividends" will change the M2 growth to around 11.2% (note: I use $1T because the $1.2T "dividend" is supposedly coming out of the $0.2T in tariffs collected)
New cash has a 12-18 month lag in inflation, so current CPI doesn't yet include all of the last 12 months M2 growth
Bayesian VAR and Stock-Watson models (which both filter out more short term noise than standard DSGE models) estimate a new $1.2T shock on top of realized M2 growth would spike inflation to 6.5-7.5%

---

Which is a large reason why, when Trump pumped almost a trillion dollars into the economy via the PPP, we saw high inflation under Biden.

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Trump started the inflationary spiral, and Biden said "Hold my beer!" and turned it to eleventy.

And so has Trump 2.0

Nothing is being down to stop it.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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And so has Trump 2.0

Nothing is being down to stop it.

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"Preach!", said the choir! (**He did get BuildBackBetter 2.0 pushed through, which worsens things via spending)

The second the Fed was installed to manage money, a wedge was driven between politicians and constituents. Politicians could then spend with reckless abandon, provide generational entitlements, never have to increase taxes, and keep their cushy seats of power for decades. Politicians jawbone sound policy during elections then look for the nearest lobbyist willing to pay them millions after winning the election. This red team vs blue team BS is a distraction. All politicians bend their constituents over and get paid good to do it. It's truly the worst of team sports.

With regard to this administration, I think Trump is funny, entertaining, and brilliant; though I did not vote for the man on his 3rd go at the oval office. He's an ol' school JFK democrat which is a far cry from the current crop of commies populating the Democrat party. He's not a conservative either but, he's got all the right stuff to see us into the next phase of a new monetary system. Democrats should be rejoicing but, they're too busy being emotional.

The people running the banking system at the highest levels understand fiat cycles. Ours is aged and weakening quickly. As our fiat system goes, so does the rest of the world; along with their investments. This is the reason for Trump pushing tariffs, wars, Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, bringing home manufacturing, Bessent protecting the Yen carry trade, Warsh sitting on his hands refusing to hike rates, etc. Trump, Bessent, and Warsh were chosen to perform a very specific task for the banking elites. They are turning an oil tanker around in a lake.

Things will get worse before they get better but, they will get better; at least for a little while. These men are just buying time to get a new system in place. Personally, I think it's just another can kicking exercise using crypto (Tether). Banks are running the show and they really don't care whether the political leadership is red, blue, or purple. They care about money because that's the stuff that makes the world go 'round.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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And Nucor announced another price increase yesterday. Due to nothing more than we've eliminated all their competition.

We are doing nothing to address inflation.

Yall better prepare for the blue wave coming.

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Or maybe it's demand driven? Have you thought about that.

angus55 said:

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Ducks4brkfast said:

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And Nucor announced another price increase yesterday. Due to nothing more than we've eliminated all their competition.

We are doing nothing to address inflation.

Yall better prepare for the blue wave coming.

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Or maybe it's demand driven? Have you thought about that.

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Yes, I think about that for a living. It's my job.

Like, that's my career, what I get paid to do.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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And so has Trump 2.0

Nothing is being down to stop it.

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Nobody wants to stop it.

No Spin Ag said:

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txwxman said:

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Let's give everyone $5k. That'll help with inflation.

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It'll help my bank account, so, deal.

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Not unless you're an LOL poor it won't. If you've actually saved decent money in your bank account, the resulting devaluation of your saving will far outstrip the $5k gain.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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Dobro Turtlebane said:

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M1 is up 10.3% in the last 12 months.
M2 is up 5.4% in the last 12 months.
Adding another $1T for "dividends" will change the M2 growth to around 11.2% (note: I use $1T because the $1.2T "dividend" is supposedly coming out of the $0.2T in tariffs collected)
New cash has a 12-18 month lag in inflation, so current CPI doesn't yet include all of the last 12 months M2 growth
Bayesian VAR and Stock-Watson models (which both filter out more short term noise than standard DSGE models) estimate a new $1.2T shock on top of realized M2 growth would spike inflation to 6.5-7.5%

---

Which is a large reason why, when Trump pumped almost a trillion dollars into the economy via the PPP, we saw high inflation under Biden.

---

The CARES Act (and the Dec 2020 Consolidated Appropriations) absolutely fed the inflation in 2021-early 2022. Biden exacerbated it with the Rescue Plan, the Build Back Better, and the Inflation Acceleration Act, but the seeds were planted. And the OBBB boondoggle decided that stupidity was fun

And the best part of the PPP is the amount of fraud. Some estimates have it as high as 60-70%

Logos Stick said:

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Fed probably going to raise rates next week.

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They're too cowardly.

BigRobSA said:

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Ducks4brkfast said:

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Dobro Turtlebane said:

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M1 is up 10.3% in the last 12 months.
M2 is up 5.4% in the last 12 months.
Adding another $1T for "dividends" will change the M2 growth to around 11.2% (note: I use $1T because the $1.2T "dividend" is supposedly coming out of the $0.2T in tariffs collected)
New cash has a 12-18 month lag in inflation, so current CPI doesn't yet include all of the last 12 months M2 growth
Bayesian VAR and Stock-Watson models (which both filter out more short term noise than standard DSGE models) estimate a new $1.2T shock on top of realized M2 growth would spike inflation to 6.5-7.5%

---

Which is a large reason why, when Trump pumped almost a trillion dollars into the economy via the PPP, we saw high inflation under Biden.

---

Trump started the inflationary spiral, and Biden said "Hold my beer!" and turned it to eleventy.

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It started in 2008

Logos Stick said:

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bobbranco said:

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Average 1914 to 2025 is about 3.26%

Biden's cumulative inflation was about 21.1%

More at this page. Run some numbers.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-and-annual-percent-changes-from-1913-to-2008/

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LOL yeah lets go back - 110 years - to the turn of the 20th century and include the great depression, etc... in our measure.

Whether you agree or not, the target is 2%. It's ELEVATED by our current standard.

If you like 3.4% inflation, good for you. Most people don't.

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I don't like mosquitos either. But, that is life.

Do you think that 2% is sustainable?

samurai_science said:

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BigRobSA said:

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Ducks4brkfast said:

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Dobro Turtlebane said:

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M1 is up 10.3% in the last 12 months.
M2 is up 5.4% in the last 12 months.
Adding another $1T for "dividends" will change the M2 growth to around 11.2% (note: I use $1T because the $1.2T "dividend" is supposedly coming out of the $0.2T in tariffs collected)
New cash has a 12-18 month lag in inflation, so current CPI doesn't yet include all of the last 12 months M2 growth
Bayesian VAR and Stock-Watson models (which both filter out more short term noise than standard DSGE models) estimate a new $1.2T shock on top of realized M2 growth would spike inflation to 6.5-7.5%

---

Which is a large reason why, when Trump pumped almost a trillion dollars into the economy via the PPP, we saw high inflation under Biden.

---

Trump started the inflationary spiral, and Biden said "Hold my beer!" and turned it to eleventy.

---

It started in 2008

---

Can you show this as a % of GDP? That would be helpful for all the people that don't want to go back to Bretton-Woods.

Logos Stick said:

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DeschutesAg said:

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There's a reason the Democrats produce good economies and always have to clean up the Republican Party's messes.

The Republican Party's economic and fiscal theory, beliefs, practices, and dogma have always been a house of cards.

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LOL, no they don't. The Great Depression and the two highest inflationary periods ever recorded in US history occurred during a Dem admin.

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LOl this...Things were great under Trump 1.0. Until China unleashed their virus and the world grinded to a halt.

DeschutesAg said:

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There's a reason the Democrats produce good economies and always have to clean up the Republican Party's messes.

The Republican Party's economic and fiscal theory, beliefs, practices, and dogma have always been a house of cards.

---

The run away entitlement spending the Dems keep passing are the number 1 issue in this entire pile of dog *****

Silent For Too Long said:

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DeschutesAg said:

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There's a reason the Democrats produce good economies and always have to clean up the Republican Party's messes.

The Republican Party's economic and fiscal theory, beliefs, practices, and dogma have always been a house of cards.

---

The run away entitlement spending the Dems keep passing are the number 1 issue in this entire pile of dog *****

---

Something like 33% of every bit of US debt has been accumulated during 6 years of Trump's presidency. Even excluding COVID stimulus it's like 25%. He ramped up the deficit this term. The last two year's of Biden (I.e. post COVID) the deficit dropped.

Gordo14 said:

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Silent For Too Long said:

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DeschutesAg said:

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There's a reason the Democrats produce good economies and always have to clean up the Republican Party's messes.

The Republican Party's economic and fiscal theory, beliefs, practices, and dogma have always been a house of cards.

---

The run away entitlement spending the Dems keep passing are the number 1 issue in this entire pile of dog *****

---

Something like 33% of every bit of US debt has been accumulated during 6 years of Trump's presidency. Even excluding COVID stimulus it's like 25%. He ramped up the deficit this term. The last two year's of Biden (I.e. post COVID) the deficit dropped.

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LOL. Nope.

https://www.us-debt-clock.com/presidents

Gordo getting nailed for fake news

Raise rates. Start the real pain. I'm ready to rip the bandaid off and power through. I feel like we're all waiting on the inevitable AI correction/pullback/(potential) bubble to say what most are already feeling out loud.

FWIW I'm in real estate and it's been a longggg drought already. I fear as we get closer to a better market the macro Econ issues are gonna pull the rug out from under us.

Gordo14 said:

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Silent For Too Long said:

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DeschutesAg said:

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There's a reason the Democrats produce good economies and always have to clean up the Republican Party's messes.

The Republican Party's economic and fiscal theory, beliefs, practices, and dogma have always been a house of cards.

---

The run away entitlement spending the Dems keep passing are the number 1 issue in this entire pile of dog *****

---

Something like 33% of every bit of US debt has been accumulated during 6 years of Trump's presidency. Even excluding COVID stimulus it's like 25%. He ramped up the deficit this term. The last two year's of Biden (I.e. post COVID) the deficit dropped.

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Since when do liberals care about spending? LOL.

Logos Stick said:

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bobbranco said:

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I don't like 3.4% but your assessment is suspect given the data.

Promoting fear porn about the economy is a pure marxist psyop.

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Yeah, I'm engaged in a Marxist psyop.

CPI remains elevated. Mostly because of energy prices related to the Iran conflict. That's a fact. I posted it up to discuss it. This could very well cost us control of the congress.

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Sorry but we finally have someone willing to punch Iran in the mouth. I'll take the short term pain to protect this country from a POS country of terrorists who have been at war with us for 50+ years while we just kick the can down the road.

If the R's lose control it's on those candidates and the R's in Congress for being such weaklings.

Muy said:

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Logos Stick said:

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bobbranco said:

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I don't like 3.4% but your assessment is suspect given the data.

Promoting fear porn about the economy is a pure marxist psyop.

---

Yeah, I'm engaged in a Marxist psyop.

CPI remains elevated. Mostly because of energy prices related to the Iran conflict. That's a fact. I posted it up to discuss it. This could very well cost us control of the congress.

---

Sorry but we finally have someone willing to punch Iran in the mouth. I'll take the short term pain to protect this country from a POS country of terrorists who have been at war with us for 50+ years while we just kick the can down the road.

If the R's lose control it's on those candidates and the R's in Congress for being such weaklings.

---

If we had completely taken out Iran's nuclear program in June of 2025, why did we have to go back less than a year later?

And if 3.4% is correct, would the correct move be to cut interest rates by 2% as some are calling for?

I'd fully supporting nuking Iran into orbit so you're asking the wrong person.

Muy said:

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I'd fully supporting nuking Iran into orbit so you're asking the wrong person.

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Like this legitimately does anything to help us long term whatsoever.

Better than 50 more years of their ****

t_J_e_C_x said:

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Muy said:

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I'd fully supporting nuking Iran into orbit so you're asking the wrong person.

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Like this legitimately does anything to help us long term whatsoever.

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I hate high diesel prices, but I do want to go ahead and get this **** over with so trumpy can find a new pet project.

[You can make your point without the name-calling -- Staff]