Cybercab launch on the plate for tomorrow in Austin; Uber announces layoffs

11,484 Views | 182 Replies | Last: 15 days ago by AgCat93
GAC06
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Not right now. I imagine lots of regulations will change as autonomous vehicles become more widespread
hph6203
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bonfarr said:

hph6203 said:

bonfarr said:

Musk said in February the Cyber Cab would be available for purchase by the public by the end of the year for an estimated $30k. I don't think he will make that timeline but looks like eventually you will be able to buy one.

Cybercab as currently configured is not legal for sale.

Musk has previously stated they have no intention of adding the missing hardware to make it legal for sale.

FSD as it currently performs is not capable enough to be put on the road with absolutely zero remote oversight. There will be circumstances where the car gets stuck and will need remote input. They do not have the level of support staff to provide that at a consumer scale operation.



Is that an order form for a consumer to buy a $30,000 vehicle they park in their driveway that they lend out periodically to be subsidized by Tesla? Or is it an interest form for business owners with experience operating a fleet of vehicles to submit interest to deploy and maintain multiple CyberCabs to markets that don't meet Tesla's minimum population size.

Think a person in Aspen buying 20 CyberCabs and maintaining them.

In other words Tesla is saying it's a low priority market that isn't going to get their focus, but if someone with credentials is offering to operate it for them in some capacity on their behalf they will listen.


The kinds of people you are competing against to get interest from Tesla, aka former Facebook Billionaires:

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bonfarr
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Not sure but people are submitting the form and including their business plan. One guy put in he wants to ultimately by a fleet of 25 and he plans to document everything on SM if approved.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be taken at face value.
jja79
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AxelFoley85 said:

I uber a decent amount, I prefer a Waymo in the city to a human driven car. If I can get one I'll take it every time. I was also in the Robotaxi roll out. Will eventually move to it full time as pricing is better.


There's no way I'm getting in a Waymo. Seen some bad outcomes. Not that human driving doesn't have bad outcomes but I'll take my chances.
hph6203
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Very much doubt Teslaconomics (the guy who posted that) gets approved for operations. He's a goober.

I just don't see the utility in Tesla selling vehicles to individual consumers to then later fill out their fleet when they can skip the complexity and extra step by owning and operating them themselves. What value is the individual consumer supplying? The funding for the car? Tesla has $40 billion in cash. Each million CyberCabs costs $20 billion and returns $20 billion in profit. So you're going to cut your take rate to fund a fleet you don't have problems funding in the first place?

It sounds good for the consumer, but generally unnecessary for Tesla.

Maybe some very limited surge opportunities that you have to compete over.
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Windy City Ag
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Quote:

Cybercab as currently configured is not legal for sale.

Musk has previously stated they have no intention of adding the missing hardware to make it legal for sale.

FSD as it currently performs is not capable enough to be put on the road with absolutely zero remote oversight. There will be circumstances where the car gets stuck and will need remote input. They do not have the level of support staff to provide that at a consumer scale operation.


Wiki has a pretty awesome page of failed Elon Musk Self-Driving predictions going back to 2013.

How any one believes anything he says at this point is beyond me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk


Quote:

Sep 2013

"We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years."


Jun 2014

"I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exits without touching any controls."

Dec 2015

"We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."

Apr 2019

"I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere. ... maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road."

Apr 2020

"[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown."

May 2023

"I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year."

Oct 2024

"We do expect actually to start fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. ... and then we expect to be in production with the CyberCab which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames ... but in 2026."

Jul 2025

"I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That's at least our goal subject to regulatory approvals."

Jul 2025

"I think [FSD] will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies."


And on and on and on and on and on.
Burdizzo
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CanyonAg77 said:

Quote:

Point being that automated driving makes it a lot easier for those with dementia to disappear themselves.

Given that a ctbercab is much more likely to be tracked, and has the possibility of being remotely controlled, I'd assert that the opposite is true.



Assertion noted.
Logos Stick
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Windy City Ag said:

Quote:

Cybercab as currently configured is not legal for sale.

Musk has previously stated they have no intention of adding the missing hardware to make it legal for sale.

FSD as it currently performs is not capable enough to be put on the road with absolutely zero remote oversight. There will be circumstances where the car gets stuck and will need remote input. They do not have the level of support staff to provide that at a consumer scale operation.


Wiki has a pretty awesome page of failed Elon Musk Self-Driving predictions going back to 2013.

How any one believes anything he says at this point is beyond me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk


Quote:

Sep 2013

"We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years."


Jun 2014

"I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exits without touching any controls."

Dec 2015

"We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."

Apr 2019

"I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere. ... maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road."

Apr 2020

"[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown."

May 2023

"I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year."

Oct 2024

"We do expect actually to start fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. ... and then we expect to be in production with the CyberCab which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames ... but in 2026."

Jul 2025

"I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That's at least our goal subject to regulatory approvals."

Jul 2025

"I think [FSD] will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies."


And on and on and on and on and on.



Better late than never!
torrid
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Burdizzo said:

CanyonAg77 said:

Quote:

At some point there will need to be a liability release in the event an older owner with dementia (not you) uses one of those things to drive off to Bolivia.


I've seen several cases where some old farts get in their car, drive off, and aren't seen again until dead. No one has sued GM over that.

I suspect it would be very easy for my kids to geofence a cybercab, to keep me away from the strip club, or Bolivian. If not that, I suspect the cabs will have GPS where an LEO could pull up my location with a warrant.



Point being that automated driving makes it a lot easier for those with dementia to disappear themselves.

Then there's the Yellowstone version. You throw someone in the Cybercab and set it so they can't open the doors. Then it drives them to the train station, never to be seen again.
txags92
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GAC06 said:

Not right now. I imagine lots of regulations will change as autonomous vehicles become more widespread

Yeah, how do open container laws apply to vehicles with no gas pedal and no steering wheel?
hph6203
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For the time being, it's the government, so enjoy your DWI plead down to a public intoxication.
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AxelFoley85
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Makes complete sense. I'm still city slicking!
hph6203
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suburban cowboy
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I Uber relatively long distances for work quite often.

The quality, even for black cars (irony), is quite poor. I've had multiple occasions where I probably should have had the driver pull over and drop me off.
hph6203
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One million unsupervised miles so far. Waymo at 250 million. Tesla at 14 billion supervised FSD miles and over 265 billion cumulative Tesla miles driven.

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hph6203
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johnnyblaze36
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hph6203 said:



I'll be in Austin tomorrow night and would gladly grab one to Moody Center and out of there as well but there appears to be only 40 in circulation at this time.

Also, what's the move when you're in one and it suddenly gets attacked by a violent mob on 6th Street?

FriendlyAg
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BuddysBud said:

BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

The original model was to get people together who were going the same direction.


Uber was originally all black towncars. So I don't think your statement is accurate. It was meant to be a competitor to taxis from the beginning.


In other words, Uber has never been a "ride-sharing" service. Just an illegal taxi company from day 1.
I never quite understood how Uber was allowed to operate in cities with strict controls on taxi services.


Blah blah blah blah. No one under 40 ever took a taxi. It was always way easier to take uber. It was stupid that the government ever tried to regulate what is a legal or illegal taxi service.
nortex97
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The AI is the headline news of course, but the elimination of brake fluid and absence of rare earth metals in the drive motor are pretty awesome imho.

ts5641
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techno-ag said:

"To reduce management layers" they say. Not drivers.

Reducing management layers is never bad, especially in the government. Look at an average decent sized school district. The bloat is insane.
Logos Stick
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I don't this is is going to work, Cybercab is charging much less than Uber for same trip...

txags92
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Logos Stick said:

I don't this is is going to work, Cybercab is charging much less than Uber for same trip...



Cue the leftist whine that Elon is depriving all the african immigrants a living wage as an Uber driver by eliminating the driver in his cabs. Cali will probably set a minimum cab fare per mile and we are right back to Yellow Cab.
nortex97
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It's going to be a steady/slow roll out of tech improvements imho.

They also will at some point have to build out the robo cleaning stations they have talked about. Easy to have clean vehicles when they are...brand new.
LeftyAg89
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suburban cowboy said:

I Uber relatively long distances for work quite often.

The quality, even for black cars (irony), is quite poor. I've had multiple occasions where I probably should have had the driver pull over and drop me off.


Ever catch an Uber ride in Japan? Wow it's night and day. Their Uber drivers, usually older dudes, wear business suits and white gloves. Several times when I came downstairs from my hotel I found my Uber driver out of his car polishing the side mirrors/door with a cloth.

Taiwan Uber is also a step up. Not at the Japanese level of course (but who is?), but still much much better than the US.
YouBet
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Once we get the bugs worked out of this, I do look forward to using this vs being driven around by someone who doesn't speak any English whatsoever and shouldn't be here in the first place.
Windy City Ag
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And Tesla shares are down nearly 7% due to the negative reaction to the event. The company is also being probed by the NTSA regarding it self-certification.

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/federal-regulators-open-investigation-tesla-142100471.html
Quote:

TSLA self-certified the no-steering-wheel Cybercab as street-legal, bypassing the Part 555 exemption process, and NHTSA launched an audit before public rides began Friday.

When Zoox tried the same self-certification path for a driverless shuttle, the NHTSA process consumed years and demanded exemptions from 8 federal safety standards.

Tesla already faces at least 2 other active NHTSA investigations covering 9 crashes, including a fatal pedestrian collision, plus scrutiny over crash reporting delays.

On Thursday evening, at ACL Live in downtown Austin, Tesla held an invitation-only launch event for the Cybercab, a passenger vehicle with no steering wheel, no pedals, and no side mirrors. Attendees rode in it first. Public rides opened Friday morning inside a limited zone of Austin. Before those rides began, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a formal audit query into how the car got on the road at all.

Here is the part most drivers do not know: Tesla did not ask a regulator for permission. It declared the Cybercab legal itself. In American vehicle safety law, that is the system. Automakers self-certify that their vehicles meet every Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard, and NHTSA polices that assertion after the fact. Self-certification is standard industry practice. What is unusual is applying it to a car that ships without the physical controls the standards were written around.

TechCrunch notes that Part 555 is the formal federal exemption process for vehicles that do not meet all the standards, and it is the path a company would normally use to put a steering-wheel-free car on public streets. According to 24/7 Wall St., Tesla had not filed an exemption request as of Wednesday, the day before the launch. By self-certifying instead, Tesla is attempting to skip the exemption process entirely. The audit query is the government testing whether it can.



hph6203
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Tesla is nowhere near the 2500 vehicle exemption. The self certification allows them to circumvent the 2500 cap, but DOT is attempting to push autonomous vehicle standards through that would set a national minimum requirement (removing side view, rear visibility, pedals and steering wheel requirements) that would allow the growth.

Tesla is also way more adept at vehicle requirements than Zoox. They make more American made cars in a day than Zoox has made in its history.


Stock went through a pump and dump. Up for no reason yesterday. Down today to remove the irrational run up yesterday. Merely announcing the CyberCab deployment doesn't justify a 6% bump. They have to demonstrate revenue growth. Won't be material to financials this year.
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hph6203
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hph6203
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AustinAg2K
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hph6203 said:




I would assume it's not going to hit you with the door, considering it has to avoid cars, bikes, kids, etc. if you can do all that, not hitting someone with the door seems pretty simple.
hph6203
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You would be surprised by how many people see the fully extended doors and assume they are either a fully closed or fully open binary. They can stop more open than in that video, but still not fully open.
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torrid
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AustinAg2K said:

hph6203 said:




I would assume it's not going to hit you with the door, considering it has to avoid cars, bikes, kids, etc. if you can do all that, not hitting someone with the door seems pretty simple.

I would assume it doesn't open the door for just the first person walking by either, but is monitoring your location through the app.
BQ08
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I usually go for a jog in downtown Austin a few times a week during lunch.

Went today and saw no less than 11 cybercabs and about the same number of Waymos. Should be interesting to see if that ratio changes.
hph6203
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hph6203
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Interesting labor argument.

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