38,000 overall which was below estimate. ADP is a private payroll company and has been putting out a report for years using their own payroll data to estimate job creation in the United States.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/private-payrolls-rose-by-38000-in-august-fewer-than-expected-adp-reports.html

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Education and health services added 45,000 to lead all categories, with the latter group being at the forefront of employment growth.

Leisure and hospitality added 16,000 positions an construction was up 12,000. Outside of that, though, there were few growth areas.

Manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services was off 16,000 and both the natural resources and mining as well as trade, transportation and utilities reported declines of 5,000.

Almost all of the gains came from big business, with companies employing 500 or more workers adding 34,000 while those with fewer than 50 employees rose by 3,000.

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It's estimated we need somewhere around an average of 50,000 or so jobs created per month or less now to maintain current levels of employment, but the trend is certainly concerning. The labor participation rate is lower than average and many people have given up looking for jobs which has distorted the overall jobless picture.

November isn't that far away and a lack of focus and messaging on the domestic economy is going to hamper the GOP. The tariffs, high diesel prices, etc. are not helping.

Democrats might hold off celebrating bad news for Americans for just a bit with the full jobs report Friday coming up, but the flip side good news to this is it eases the likelihood of a rate increase, and as well bond market concerns.

Manufacturing has been heating up a lot so this is a bit of a surprise.

Monthly data is noisy.

When you say "It's estimated we need somewhere around an average of 50,000 or so jobs created per month or less now to maintain current levels of employment" are you talking about BLS or ADP numbers because they do not measure the same thing.

"HOLD ON TO YOUR SEATS!": The economy added 162,000 new jobs last month — shattering economists' expectations.

More than one million private sector jobs have been added since President Trump took office.

🚀🚀🚀 pic.twitter.com/AwsTLO2Z6S

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 4, 2026

Curious what the commie democrat-media spin on this will be. I don't see their talking points out yet.

Gas prices. It will be all about the suffering of Americans at the pump as they are forced out in the road this Labor Day to enjoy suffer the last bites of summer.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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38,000 overall which was below estimate. ADP is a private payroll company and has been putting out a report for years using their own payroll data to estimate job creation in the United States.

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Unfortunately gas prices are not great, and I think the fed is likely to increase the interest rate prior to november on the basis of this data. Would love to be wrong of course. Markets are off this am.

A lot of mixed data points out there. Some good, some not. An anecdotal metric I watch as a gauge of economic activity is the number of 18 wheelers per mile when I'm driving anywhere in this country. There's a lot of big rigs on the road these days. Economic activity in total is pretty robust, but I don't think that's translating to improved financial conditions for a lot of Americans. If you're connected to the AI buildout, you're rolling in it. But if you're connected to housing, basic materials, and other industries, times are tougher.

We have a reset coming to higher interest rates after a 10 year plus period of abnormally low rates that everybody began to think was normal. Higher rates will generally make things tougher for businesses and families. It will also push down asset prices over time (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.). Here's an article that goes further into it https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/the-world-appears-to-be-entering-a-higher-rate-era-here-s-who-will-pay-the-price/ar-AA2bsRFV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=6a9abb95145a4369b51b72ef86da9438&ei=13

Neither group of sycophants will ever be convinced. The Trump humpers could have a direct quote from Trump saying things are screwed...."LOL, Own those libs, Daddy Trump!". And the NeverTrump/commie base could have AOC and Bernie come out and laud the situation and they would all of a sudden be labeled far right puppets.


Reality, though, is a ***** . Things are better than before, but not great. Simple as that.

Trump tells Warsh to lower rates. And the other Kevin (Hassett) was just one indicating Fed in Georgia will have a GDP number to publish just before the election they expect to be at 5% (I didn't catch all the details and if he nuanced his prediction).

The concept that you adjust interests rates to grow or slow the economy is not the best way as it unnaturally hinders a healthy growing economy that we have.

I still think we do indeed see a cut before the election. Why? Politics and payback for Powell throwing a bone to his overlords Biden & friends.

bump...

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July's job number was also revised up by +43,000 jobs and is now positive for the month.

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BREAKING: The US economy adds +162,000 jobs in August, well above expectations of +55,000.

The unemployment rate was 4.1%, in-line with expectations of 4.1%.

July's job number was also revised up by +43,000 jobs and is now positive for the month.

The US job market nearly…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 4, 2026

Hassett indicated some good numbers on manufacturing jobs embedded in the numbers, resulting from data center but also other mfg building due to OBBB tax policies such as immediate expensing.

I've read many times, from people who are smarter than I am and also in the finance world/sector, that the fed board of governors functionally tracks the bond rates to make decisions, and largely ignores the other noise/politics.

All that to say I'd be shocked if short term the fed actually cuts rates.

ADP saying Manufacturing lost jobs completely invalidates their report. That's frankly embarrassing.

Manufacturing is way up. Now, if you want to argue where then that's a separate topic....it's way up for data centers but down most everywhere else.

Trump has thrown a suitcase full of money to the American people. The democrats will try to convince them it sucks because they don't like the color of the suitcase

nortex97 said:

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I've read many times, from people who are smarter than I am and also in the finance world/sector, that the fed board of governors functionally tracks the bond rates to make decisions, and largely ignores the other noise/politics.

All that to say I'd be shocked if short term the fed actually cuts rates.

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And Warsh just said in last week they are going to follow bonds moreso than they have in the past when it comes to rate moves. Trump is about the only one left calling for rate cuts at this point. The likelihood of an increase is >60% by most prognosticators.

nortex97 said:

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I've read many times, from people who are smarter than I am and also in the finance world/sector, that the fed board of governors functionally tracks the bond rates to make decisions, and largely ignores the other noise/politics.

All that to say I'd be shocked if short term the fed actually cuts rates.

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Kudlow and Forbes had a good back-and-forth on bond yields and why it would be unwise to make those heuristic decisions on rates based on bond yields. Same sentiment in that those guys (and their supportive analysts) are much smarter than I on this, certainly more experienced, but there is more than one school of thought vs the "standard" take you oft see here. I will try to link the segment.


Here is the longer Forbes "podcast" on the concept he discussed with Larry. Not all will agree and I think it's fair to have that debate. What I think has been unfair is that people are lead to believe that inflation has to be tamed some mythical 2% and must be adhered to no matter what other economic indicators are telling you or what other remedies are available.

YouBet said:

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ADP saying Manufacturing lost jobs completely invalidates their report. That's frankly embarrassing.

Manufacturing is way up. Now, if you want to argue where then that's a separate topic....it's way up for data centers but down most everywhere else.

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And that's the reason why you hear different views on the economy. They're both right. But the fact that AI is rolling doesn't make life better for those in other industries. I'm in a basic materials industry that's been in a recession for over two years. We are closing plants and slowing production at others. Fact. I'm about to retire, so largely insulated from the pain, but my colleagues and their families are feeling it.