Democrats were +2.9% national vote in 2020 house elections compared to -2.7% in 2022, resulting in a +9 gain for the GOP.

GOP was +2.6% in the same metric in 2024.

The gerrymandering wars will have created a few more competitive seats so a similar 5-6% swing would likely produce at least the same gain in seats.

MemphisAg1 said:

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Puts Trump in a tough spot with the intersection of inflation and the Iran war.

He's reluctant to re-engage militarily to eliminate their nuclear threat and open the strait because of the potential impact to oil prices when the Iranians retaliate and blow up more oil infrastructure in the Gulf.

He runs the risk of alienating that segment of his supporters who aren't happy he hasn't finished the job militarily, while also fanning the flames of his haters who will use inflation as another reason to vote Dem and oppose R's.

It was going to be a rough midterm anyway. I'd like to see him finish the job with Iran. No TACO.

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Just bow out till after the election....

Mossad can plan with us and next Nov BOOM

easy really

If 5% by the fall, Rs lose the midterms despite the more fair maps in the red states.

Dan Carlin said:

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Democrats were +2.9% national vote in 2020 house elections compared to -2.7% in 2022, resulting in a +9 gain for the GOP.

GOP was +2.6% in the same metric in 2024.

The gerrymandering wars will have created a few more competitive seats so a similar 5-6% swing would likely produce at least the same gain in seats.

---

We were very fortunate to gut the VRA and likely save the house.

Ag with kids said:

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rgag12 said:

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Inflation was way worse in 2022, but it didn't affect the democrats too much in the midterms.

---

That's because the media kept telling everyone it wasn't a big deal.

Even though this was 2022:

2022
7.5
7.9
8.5
8.3
8.6
9.1
8.5
8.3
8.2
7.7
7.1
6.5
8.0

---

How dumb is the general population that this actually works?

The line used to be "it's the economy stupid" when despite all the smoke politicians and the media blew up our ass we could plainly see that the economy was F'd up.

You couldn't hide what was obvious to anyone who actually had to pay high prices everywhere.

Now you can.

It might be of benefit if you travel by balloon.

Logos Stick said:

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If 5% by the fall, Rs lose the midterms despite the more fair maps in the red states.

---

6 months is a long time in an election. Anything can happen. Having said that, Trump needs to have this resolved by soemtime in July so that prices can stabilize and have time to go down where people feel it in their wallet.

I think that's why he is locked and loaded and getting ready to let the Islamic regime have it again if they don't agree to our terms in the very near future. Trump has been extremely patient, but I believe the window is closing quickly.

rgag12 said:

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Inflation was way worse in 2022, but it didn't affect the democrats too much in the midterms.

---

I keep saying that as well

gasoline higher, inflation higher under Biden for AN ENTIRE YEAR leading up to the elections

Democrats kept the senate and only lost a few seats in the House

don't fall for the: "oh the GOP is going to get wiped out" liars and gaslighters

nortex97 said:

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Tiki Torch marches? The SPLC is under indictment and can't fund those right now.

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I mean, tiki torches will do, but I draw a line at wearing those ghey tan khaki pants.

LMCane said:

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rgag12 said:

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Inflation was way worse in 2022, but it didn't affect the democrats too much in the midterms.

---

I keep saying that as well

gasoline higher, inflation higher under Biden for AN ENTIRE YEAR leading up to the elections

Democrats kept the senate and only lost a few seats in the House

don't fall for the: "oh the GOP is going to get wiped out" liars and gaslighters

---

The GOP isn't getting wiped out. Does that mean things don't cost more though during an administration we were told would bring us a golden age?

I mean, if this is a golden age, methinks they didn't know what golden age meant what they thought it did.

LMCane said:

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rgag12 said:

---

Inflation was way worse in 2022, but it didn't affect the democrats too much in the midterms.

---

I keep saying that as well

gasoline higher, inflation higher under Biden for AN ENTIRE YEAR leading up to the elections

Democrats kept the senate and only lost a few seats in the House

don't fall for the: "oh the GOP is going to get wiped out" liars and gaslighters

---

Don't underestimate the effects of the Enemedia's blather on the malaised masses, or the ballot cheat factor. Besides, the number of people who support socialism/communism in our country should cause any freedom loving individual deep concern.

It's still too high, but I'm not going to blame the President.

Ag with kids said:

---

rgag12 said:

---

Inflation was way worse in 2022, but it didn't affect the democrats too much in the midterms.

---

That's because the media kept telling everyone it wasn't a big deal.

Even though this was 2022:

2022
7.5
7.9
8.5
8.3
8.6
9.1
8.5
8.3
8.2
7.7
7.1
6.5
8.0

---

Trump is (was?) saying inflation is a big deal.
Affordability is (was?) one of the administration's most important agenda topics,

At least in 2022, we had economic growth, even though it was trending up post-COVID. Now we're looking at negative growth and stagflation. GDP figures will be interesting in Sept, Oct, Nov. I suspect a lot of people claiming fake news and politically driven reports come the fall.

No Spin Ag said:

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LMCane said:

---

rgag12 said:

---

Inflation was way worse in 2022, but it didn't affect the democrats too much in the midterms.

---

I keep saying that as well

gasoline higher, inflation higher under Biden for AN ENTIRE YEAR leading up to the elections

Democrats kept the senate and only lost a few seats in the House

don't fall for the: "oh the GOP is going to get wiped out" liars and gaslighters

---

The GOP isn't getting wiped out. Does that mean things don't cost more though during an administration we were told would bring us a golden age?

I mean, if this is a golden age, methinks they didn't know what golden age meant what they thought it did.

---

Just under 6 months out is still a long long way to go to predict midterm results. In many races we do not even have the candidate slate set.

The Rs should have made substantial gains in 2022. MSM covering for Biden was a part but a much bigger issue for the GOP were the terrible candidates what were run in many races.

The Trump factor was greatly diminished by the continued attacks on him, the lawfare, Jan 6th & 2020 elections hangover / disarray and the like.

This summer will be non-stop patriotic celebrations led by Trump and his acolytes brainstorming the USA with equal parts of Americana, Trump & the Golden Age, and big beautiful reflection pools, fireworks, UFC fights and F1 races down Pennsylvania.

By voting season, much of what is daily fodder here will be a distant memory.

Point - How many folks are posting daily about ICE "murdering" US citizens in Minneapolis and deporting abuelas? Crickets these days. Whilst the libs keep doing their best to make R candidate campaign videos on the daily.

In 2022 Inflation was about 8% and the U.S. was getting screwed worldwide.

in 2026 is is about 4% and the U.S. has taken charge.

I think 2026 is a better deal for all Americans.

But the price of those eggs though

$5 diesel will always be inflationary in nature. Almost every product travels by truck or rail, so until diesel comes down, prices will be inflated.

flown-the-coop said:

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No Spin Ag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

rgag12 said:

---

Inflation was way worse in 2022, but it didn't affect the democrats too much in the midterms.

---

I keep saying that as well

gasoline higher, inflation higher under Biden for AN ENTIRE YEAR leading up to the elections

Democrats kept the senate and only lost a few seats in the House

don't fall for the: "oh the GOP is going to get wiped out" liars and gaslighters

---

The GOP isn't getting wiped out. Does that mean things don't cost more though during an administration we were told would bring us a golden age?

I mean, if this is a golden age, methinks they didn't know what golden age meant what they thought it did.

---

Just under 6 months out is still a long long way to go to predict midterm results. In many races we do not even have the candidate slate set.

The Rs should have made substantial gains in 2022. MSM covering for Biden was a part but a much bigger issue for the GOP were the terrible candidates what were run in many races.

The Trump factor was greatly diminished by the continued attacks on him, the lawfare, Jan 6th & 2020 elections hangover / disarray and the like.

This summer will be non-stop patriotic celebrations led by Trump and his acolytes brainstorming the USA with equal parts of Americana, Trump & the Golden Age, and big beautiful reflection pools, fireworks, UFC fights and F1 races down Pennsylvania.

By voting season, much of what is daily fodder here will be a distant memory.

Point - How many folks are posting daily about ICE "murdering" US citizens in Minneapolis and deporting abuelas? Crickets these days. Whilst the libs keep doing their best to make R candidate campaign videos on the daily.

---

Honestly, I'm so glad it's a conservative in the WH during our 250th anniversary. I mean, even if some things aren't everyone's cup of tea, the idea is "We're #1, period. GTFO of you don't like it!"

As for ICE, it's like anything the radical left does, as soon as it gets boring (i.e. they stopped getting the likes) they moved on. It was a given like all things they do.

If only thing didn't cost more than they did a year ago. Yes, kids will just have to do with 2 fireworks instead of 30 when they celebrate the 4th, which is a shame cause I'm sure they'd have more fun with 30 than 2.

BusterAg said:

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If Trump wanted to control inflation, he would stop spending money.

He hasn't, and he won't.

He has been awesome on pretty much every factor of his presidency except for the national debt, where he gets a D-. The only reason his grade there isn't worse is because F's are reserved for AOC and Bernie Sanders and crazy ass commie mayors of NYC.

---

Correct. Controlling inflation is not some mystical phenomenon that requires a rocket science degree to understand.

Free markets. Free trade. Cut regulations. Cut spending. Quit printing money. Stop paying people to do nothing. Stop the useless wars. Cut foreign aid. Cut taxes and let people keep more of what they earn.

All of this reduces down to one common denominator: SHRINK THE DAMN GOVERNMENT!

Trump may make fireworks free for everyone for July 4th. Let's see how the dealmaker in chief works over the world's fireworks maker in chief this next weekend. Expect big movement on no tariffs on fireworks plus free shipping.

Trump mentioned yesterday that he would support suspending federal taxes on gasoline. To me that's a fools errand as the money will need to still be found to makeup for that lost revenue, those taxes focus on those who use the roads the most, and it will not move consumer sentiment the way folks say it will.

Landing the Iran affair is obviously the biggest key right now, but man there are just so many unknowns in play currently for folks to make reasonably certain predictions for November.

Quote:

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Setting up to be a rough midterm for the Republicans.

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lol duh, party in the White house always has a rough mid term, this isn't exactly news...also they will keep the Senate so meh


Also, this inflation is transitory.

Helicopter Ben said:

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BusterAg said:

---

If Trump wanted to control inflation, he would stop spending money.

He hasn't, and he won't.

He has been awesome on pretty much every factor of his presidency except for the national debt, where he gets a D-. The only reason his grade there isn't worse is because F's are reserved for AOC and Bernie Sanders and crazy ass commie mayors of NYC.

---

Correct. Controlling inflation is not some mystical phenomenon that requires a rocket science degree to understand.

Free markets. Free trade. Cut regulations. Cut spending. Quit printing money. Stop paying people to do nothing. Stop the useless wars. Cut foreign aid. Cut taxes and let people keep more of what they earn.

All of this reduces down to one common denominator: SHRINK THE DAMN GOVERNMENT!

---

Trump has told Thune to end the filibuster. That is your path to cut government spending.

The Executive's role is to spend every dollar Congress tells it to. Trump was impeached for not following this.

BTW - A bill has been or is being introduced to expunge the records of Trump's previous impeachments. It brings up an important, broader issue. What is owed to someone who has been indicted in bad faith, under false pretenses? I think the penalties should be very, very severe. The days of indicting ham sammiches need to be ended.

flown-the-coop said:

---

Trump may make fireworks free for everyone for July 4th. Let's see how the dealmaker in chief works over the world's fireworks maker in chief this next weekend. Expect big movement on no tariffs on fireworks plus free shipping.

Trump mentioned yesterday that he would support suspending federal taxes on gasoline. To me that's a fools errand as the money will need to still be found to makeup for that lost revenue, those taxes focus on those who use the roads the most, and it will not move consumer sentiment the way folks say it will.

Landing the Iran affair is obviously the biggest key right now, but man there are just so many unknowns in play currently for folks to make reasonably certain predictions for November.

---

Free fireworks would be cool AF!

The federal tax thing is, to me, another SPR stunt that does nothing but "See, I'm doing this for you, now vote for us type BS" that does more harm than good.

The Iran thing should end by the end of summer of Russias support continues to do nothing much for Iran. If it lasts longer than that then it might as well just be the new Iraq debacle because it'll be long past the two to six weeks timetable given in the beginning.

Darthag11 said:

---

Quote:

---

Setting up to be a rough midterm for the Republicans.

---

lol duh, party in the White house always has a rough mid term, this isn't exactly news...also they will keep the Senate so meh


Also, this inflation is transitory.

---

There is already way, way too much "noise' in this cycle to rely on previous midterms as a predictor. Will it all cancel each other out? Maybe, but I personally think there is just too much going on this cycle to give 6-month out predictions, whether you are pro-Trump or against America.

It's not just prices that impact inflation....

Costco Toilet Paper Shrinkflation

The robbery in America never ends

We need to federally regulate Shrinkflation with mandatory label requirements

Require companies to clearly label downsized products. Labels like “Now 15% less” for a set period of time after the change

This… pic.twitter.com/48YZIn8Vax

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 12, 2026

China support for Iran right now is a much bigger deal for Iran. BiBi was on evidently on CBS saying he is concerned about China's support of Iran. He measured his comments but the message was clear that he wants Trump to talk about it.

BTW - This posture actually contradicts the concept that Trump is BiBi's lap puppy.

I just paid the highest price for gas that I remember.

Everything's gone up tremendously. Even McDonald's has near-gourmet prices now with a damn Big Mac costing over $6. We typically eat home-cooked but on Friday's we get take-out and those prices have shot through the roof.

But everyone is getting laid-off, and everyone is getting poorer (unless you invest or do HVAC).

How long will this go on for?