Thought this is worth it's own thread. The war in Iran is having some massive impacts both directly and indirectly on the maritime industry and it is driven through insurance. Without insurance shipping doesn't happen, if you can't insure a 9 figure plus ship filled with oil or other cargo you can't send it somewhere.

The most direct impact is the Strait of Hormuz closing or not. The reality is that it doesn't matter if Iran or the US or whomever "opens" the Strait as long as Lloyds of London won't insure the shipping. That's screwing over China who depends on that shipping and they have no control over it. They can pressure Iran or even try to pressure the US but they can't pressure an insurance company unless they decide to try to self insure somehow.

Another impact is that there are signs that Lloyds is having trouble getting reliable information because most of their sources are from MI6 and the US isn't sharing everything due to the idiocy of the UK. Everything in that market goes off of what Lloyd's prices things at even if Lloyd's itself isn't the underwriter. It will be interesting if someone else comes into that void.

There are some big chess pieces moving with huge potential impacts, it's definitely worth monitoring.

"China has leverage over Iran. China has zero leverage over Lloyd’s of London. This is the part nobody is modelling. The country with the most to lose and the most leverage over the belligerent cannot fix the mechanism that actually closed the Strait. Because the mechanism is… https://t.co/kgheh2On53

— Batya Ungar-Sargon (@bungarsargon) March 3, 2026

what i think is this event in the middle east is infinitely more complex than what it appears on the surface. there are so many variables that are impacted and thise have ripple effects through other sectors.

I work in the maritime industry and IMO, large maritime firms will just charge more and be fine. Everyone will suffer, the U.S. allies in Asia will suffer the most. Two weeks ago I had a major project in Mexico delayed, everything I had lined up in the middle east is obviously suspended indefinitely. Maritime firms will go Cape of Good Hope and charge triple, costs will be passed onto consumers. LL won't work with vessel traffic conducting any kind of operations in the Middle East, but no one is going to even try because they don't want to put their employees, assets, cargo, etc in harms way. This is why we took action against Venezuela, to secure more foreign oil, to plan for this. Japan has like 24 days of oil reserves and Korea is not too far ahead of that, they are ****ed if this goes on too long.

China should insure the ships

Who?mikejones! said:

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China should insure the ships

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No one is going to even try to go there until this is all over. Historically, China would probably be able to risk it due to their ties to Iran and during the early days of the current Israel/Palestine conflict, Hezbollah was mostly attacking ZIM vessels or any vessels that they assumed were aiding Israel; mostly left Chinese ships alone. Unfortunately for China, Iran is bombing basically anyone with electricity right now.

Point being- if the ships aren't moving because they lost coverage, and china needs the product that badly, they should pony up the coverage.

Or pay the US to escort the ships out of the strait

Who?mikejones! said:

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Point being- if the ships aren't moving because they lost coverage, and china needs the product that badly, they should pony up the coverage.

Or pay the US to escort the ships out of the strait

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I get what you're saying, but insurance is more of a 'just in case' thing. This current situation I think it would be pretty smart to EXPECT your **** to get droned by Hezbollah. This is a 'don't go near Somalia' situation.

No doubt. And the risk is still higher than a needy partner like china is willing to take.

At some point, as supply to china dwindles, that risk becomes acceptable.

Who?mikejones! said:

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No doubt. And the risk is still higher than a needy partner like china is willing to take.

At some point, as supply to china dwindled, that risk becomes acceptable.

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If China has to dip into reserves, they have like 6ish months. I think they will be fine, and while it's probably a good time politically for them to take Taiwan, I don't know if they're going to want to with a hard 6 month oil cap if they aren't able to import anything.

It they hit Taiwan, they wont be getting any oil out of the strait. Thats a guarantee

It's about the oil those ships carry.

"Increased targeting of Gulf Arab States' oil and natural gas production is part of a clear Iranian strategy to put pressure on those countries to, in turn, create complications for the United States. As the economic pressure builds, the idea is that these countries will seek to end the conflict, and/or that relations with the U.S. will sour. The prospect of major, long-term disruptions in energy exports from the region has global ramifications, as well, which could bring immense external pressure to end the conflict."

ARABS

leftlane4passing said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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No doubt. And the risk is still higher than a needy partner like china is willing to take.

At some point, as supply to china dwindled, that risk becomes acceptable.

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If China has to dip into reserves, they have like 6ish months. I think they will be fine, and while it's probably a good time politically for them to take Taiwan, I don't know if they're going to want to with a hard 6 month oil cap if they aren't able to import anything.

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You think what's going on now provides cover for China to take Taiwan? This and Venezuela have shown their "advanced" capabilities to be poor at best. What we're seeing right now confirms the belief that the last thing China wants is a kinetic engagement with the U.S., they simply don't have the weapons for it. I've long said China will never "take Taiwan" because it's the end of China and they know it. The past 48 hours just confirms that belief.

This cruise ship I'm supposed to get on in two and a half weeks in Athens is currently stuck in Abu Dhabi. Their social media says they may depart 7 March, but it's clearly a wait and see thing.

LOYAL AG said:

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leftlane4passing said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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No doubt. And the risk is still higher than a needy partner like china is willing to take.

At some point, as supply to china dwindled, that risk becomes acceptable.

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If China has to dip into reserves, they have like 6ish months. I think they will be fine, and while it's probably a good time politically for them to take Taiwan, I don't know if they're going to want to with a hard 6 month oil cap if they aren't able to import anything.

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You think what's going on now provides cover for China to take Taiwan? This and Venezuela have shown their "advanced" capabilities to be poor at best. What we're seeing right now confirms the belief that the last thing China wants is a kinetic engagement with the U.S., they simply don't have the weapons for it. I've long said China will never "take Taiwan" because it's the end of China and they know it. The past 48 hours just confirms that belief.

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I'm thinking of it more on 'moral' grounds level. I have this theory that this all ends with Israel having their way in the middle east, us being able to do whatever we want on our side of the globe (Venezuela, Cuba, etc.), Russia getting Ukraine and China getting Taiwan. All of the 'World Powers' get what they've wanted for a long time. U.S. and Israel have more or less a monopoly on oil, China gets their precious chips and Russia gets wheat or whatever Ukraine has.

On a capacity level, I agree that we could mop China if they wanted Taiwan. If this thing in Iran spirals and takes much longer than anticipated? Not sure we would even want to fight China and Iran at the same time if they decide to move on Taiwan. I think China taking on a spent/preoccupied US military shifts the odds more in their favor but I also think China may expect zero military intervention. Again, this is all just theory on my part, I didn't expect this Iran stuff until we moved like half our Navy over there.

Another issue is California. They just had 2 refineries shut down permanently. They also do not import enough crude to refine for their own needs before this.

They now rely on SE Asia for the finished products. If the straight is closed for any length of time, those SE Asian countries will take care of themselves first before thinking about exports.

The ripple effects may have far reaching impacts.

Although I do think this will be wrapped up in a few works and threats to shipping will evaporate.

LOYAL AG said:

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leftlane4passing said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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No doubt. And the risk is still higher than a needy partner like china is willing to take.

At some point, as supply to china dwindled, that risk becomes acceptable.

---

If China has to dip into reserves, they have like 6ish months. I think they will be fine, and while it's probably a good time politically for them to take Taiwan, I don't know if they're going to want to with a hard 6 month oil cap if they aren't able to import anything.

---

You think what's going on now provides cover for China to take Taiwan? This and Venezuela have shown their "advanced" capabilities to be poor at best. What we're seeing right now confirms the belief that the last thing China wants is a kinetic engagement with the U.S., they simply don't have the weapons for it. I've long said China will never "take Taiwan" because it's the end of China and they know it. The past 48 hours just confirms that belief.

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We also have 2 Carrier groups off of Japan right now, the George Washington and the Tripoli. China's best move is to hope to get a Democrat in office in 2029 but this would be a very bad time to attack Taiwan. Even under perfect circumstances and no US assistance the odds of success are very low (esp with Japan making it clear they will jump in and they have a significant Navy with a strength in submarines that will make crossing 100 miles of the Taiwan Strait lots of fun). It would be the ultimate desperation move for China and fundamentally it doesn't solve their problem, Taiwan has no oil or food and it's not like China would be able to just come in and take over the chip factories. Taiwan has virtually every person on the island having served in the military and has been preparing for an invasion since Trump was a toddler.

There are just a lot of chess pieces moving and it's very hard to know how this ends up but change is coming regardless.

Only problem with that is Japan will run out of oil in a month without significant help from the U.S. They are heavily dependent on oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Another issue is California. They just had 2 refineries shut down permanently. They also do not import enough crude to refine for their own needs before this.

They now rely on SE Asia for the finished products. If the straight is closed for any length of time, those SE Asian countries will take care of themselves first before thinking about exports.

The ripple effects may have far reaching impacts.

Although I do think this will be wrapped up in a few works and threats to shipping will evaporate.

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Lol. Dumbasses

This is a temporary blip confined to the SoH and is not very large impact to the global maritime industry.

leftlane4passing said:

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Only problem with that is Japan will run out of oil in a month without significant help from the U.S. They are heavily dependent on oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.

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True but that's an opportunity for the US. We can provide the oil if we want to. Same with South Korea who has been buddying up to China. There are risks and concerns of course but we can keep them from being cut off, China cannot.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Another issue is California. They just had 2 refineries shut down permanently. They also do not import enough crude to refine for their own needs before this.

They now rely on SE Asia for the finished products. If the straight is closed for any length of time, those SE Asian countries will take care of themselves first before thinking about exports.

The ripple effects may have far reaching impacts.

Although I do think this will be wrapped up in a few works and threats to shipping will evaporate.

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No doubt California is all kinds of dumbassery. Ironically my son has been running oil from Alaska to California the last few months on a tanker.

aggie93 said:

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leftlane4passing said:

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Only problem with that is Japan will run out of oil in a month without significant help from the U.S. They are heavily dependent on oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.

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True but that's an opportunity for the US. We can provide the oil if we want to. Same with South Korea who has been buddying up to China. There are risks and concerns of course but we can keep them from being cut off, China cannot.

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Japan is pretty safe to not turn to China, China hates them. South Korea is WAY more live to flip if we aren't careful. Really hope this situation is used to solidify/strengthen our relationship with Japan and especially South Korea. Don't think the South would last a decade as an independent nation if they swapped to China.

What this entire incident has shown is that the U.S. is the only world power. Iran aligned with China and Russia and they got a "Dude, that sucks!" when they needed help against us. Anyone thinking they're better aligned with the Chinese right now needs to reconsider now. China can't/won't help you if you get sideways with the U.S. The world already knows they can trade internationally only if we let them. China isn't capable of really much of anything globally and except manufacturing low level stuff. This has proven they're a paper tiger and not to be relied upon.

U.S. President Donald J. Trump in a post earlier on TruthSocial: “Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL… pic.twitter.com/ZBN1ZTzfij

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 3, 2026

It appears we're going to replace the insurance and provide escorts

Ducks4brkfast said:

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This is a temporary blip confined to the SoH and is not very large impact to the global maritime industry.

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20% of the oil produced for world consumption flows thru SoH. Its a very large impact.

Who?mikejones! said:

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U.S. President Donald J. Trump in a post earlier on TruthSocial: “Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL… pic.twitter.com/ZBN1ZTzfij

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 3, 2026

It appears we're going to replace the insurance and provide escorts

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Looks like Trump reads Texags and read my post!

Logos Stick said:

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Ducks4brkfast said:

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This is a temporary blip confined to the SoH and is not very large impact to the global maritime industry.

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20% of the oil produced for world consumption flows thru SoH. Its a very large impact.

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I wasn't referencing oil I was speaking to the global maritime industry and subsequent insurance impacts.

LOYAL AG said:

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What this entire incident has shown is that the U.S. is the only world power. Iran aligned with China and Russia and they got a "Dude, that sucks!" when they needed help against us. Anyone thinking they're better aligned with the Chinese right now needs to reconsider now. China can't/won't help you if you get sideways with the U.S. The world already knows they can trade internationally only if we let them. China isn't capable of really much of anything globally and except manufacturing low level stuff. This has proven they're a paper tiger and not to be relied upon.

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This. One thing a lot of people don't understand is you have Western thinking and then how the rest of the world thinks.

Western thinking is about diplomacy and human rights and de-escalation of tensions, soft power and trying to get everyone to get along. This started with Wilsonian concepts in the League of Nations and then continued after with FDR and Truman post WWII with the UN and Bretton Woods. Essentially the US provides our power as a gentle Superpower with low expectations and respecting other countries as equals for the most part.

The rest of the world respects hard power and strength. They fear and respect those who can fearlessly exercise power. They were happy for us to give them protection for almost nothing but they also saw us as weak for doing so. They fear the guy that has no hesitation to project hard power and intimidate and show strength. Essentially the Teddy Roosevelt doctrine of "Walk softly and carry a big stick" or the British Empire with "Gunboat Diplomacy".

What you are seeing now is a reversion to the Teddy Roosevelt mindset and I'm happy to see it. America looks out for America and if you want our protection it comes at a cost. If you mess with us it comes at a really big cost. We aren't bullies but the lion is awake and if you decide to tangle with us you could become dinner. China and Russia can't do that and we have shown just how weak they are and the world is noticing. This is going to create a lot of change and most people have a ways to go to wrap their head around it.

aggie93 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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What this entire incident has shown is that the U.S. is the only world power. Iran aligned with China and Russia and they got a "Dude, that sucks!" when they needed help against us. Anyone thinking they're better aligned with the Chinese right now needs to reconsider now. China can't/won't help you if you get sideways with the U.S. The world already knows they can trade internationally only if we let them. China isn't capable of really much of anything globally and except manufacturing low level stuff. This has proven they're a paper tiger and not to be relied upon.

---

This. One thing a lot of people don't understand is you have Western thinking and then how the rest of the world thinks.

Western thinking is about diplomacy and human rights and de-escalation of tensions, soft power and trying to get everyone to get along. This started with Wilsonian concepts in the League of Nations and then continued after with FDR and Truman post WWII with the UN and Bretton Woods. Essentially the US provides our power as a gentle Superpower with low expectations and respecting other countries as equals for the most part.

The rest of the world respects hard power and strength. They fear and respect those who can fearlessly exercise power. They were happy for us to give them protection for almost nothing but they also saw us as weak for doing so. They fear the guy that has no hesitation to project hard power and intimidate and show strength. Essentially the Teddy Roosevelt doctrine of "Walk softly and carry a big stick" or the British Empire with "Gunboat Diplomacy".

What you are seeing now is a reversion to the Teddy Roosevelt mindset and I'm happy to see it. America looks out for America and if you want our protection it comes at a cost. If you mess with us it comes at a really big cost. We aren't bullies but the lion is awake and if you decide to tangle with us you could become dinner. China and Russia can't do that and we have shown just how weak they are and the world is noticing. This is going to create a lot of change and most people have a ways to go to wrap their head around it.

---

Well said. I've butted heads for years on F16 about whether China could, would or even already had overtaken the U.S. as the world's #1 superpower. This year with the end of Maduro and now the Mullahs makes it incredibly clear that not only have they not supplanted us but that even they know they cannot do so. This statement by Trump that the U.S. government and U.S. Navy guaranteeing energy shipments through the Straights of Hormuz is us telling China "you'll continue to get the oil you need because we want you to". It's a not so subtle reminder they need us WAY more than we need them.

The US insures the ships physically can pass the straits.

Everywhere for that matter...

The insurance underwriters should be based in the
US. Britain living free off of US blood and sweat.

Hot take. Don't defend ships not insured by US underwriters.

This is an industry created directly on the backs of the US Taxpayer and Servicemen

Iran... How to screw your friends and enemies at the same time.

LOYAL AG said:

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aggie93 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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What this entire incident has shown is that the U.S. is the only world power. Iran aligned with China and Russia and they got a "Dude, that sucks!" when they needed help against us. Anyone thinking they're better aligned with the Chinese right now needs to reconsider now. China can't/won't help you if you get sideways with the U.S. The world already knows they can trade internationally only if we let them. China isn't capable of really much of anything globally and except manufacturing low level stuff. This has proven they're a paper tiger and not to be relied upon.

---

This. One thing a lot of people don't understand is you have Western thinking and then how the rest of the world thinks.

Western thinking is about diplomacy and human rights and de-escalation of tensions, soft power and trying to get everyone to get along. This started with Wilsonian concepts in the League of Nations and then continued after with FDR and Truman post WWII with the UN and Bretton Woods. Essentially the US provides our power as a gentle Superpower with low expectations and respecting other countries as equals for the most part.

The rest of the world respects hard power and strength. They fear and respect those who can fearlessly exercise power. They were happy for us to give them protection for almost nothing but they also saw us as weak for doing so. They fear the guy that has no hesitation to project hard power and intimidate and show strength. Essentially the Teddy Roosevelt doctrine of "Walk softly and carry a big stick" or the British Empire with "Gunboat Diplomacy".

What you are seeing now is a reversion to the Teddy Roosevelt mindset and I'm happy to see it. America looks out for America and if you want our protection it comes at a cost. If you mess with us it comes at a really big cost. We aren't bullies but the lion is awake and if you decide to tangle with us you could become dinner. China and Russia can't do that and we have shown just how weak they are and the world is noticing. This is going to create a lot of change and most people have a ways to go to wrap their head around it.

---

Well said. I've butted heads for years on F16 about whether China could, would or even already had overtaken the U.S. as the world's #1 superpower. This year with the end of Maduro and now the Mullahs makes it incredibly clear that not only have they not supplanted us but that even they know they cannot do so. This statement by Trump that the U.S. government and U.S. Navy guaranteeing energy shipments through the Straights of Hormuz is us telling China "you'll continue to get the oil you need because we want you to". It's a not so subtle reminder they need us WAY more than we need them.

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Yep. China is thinking they can pressure Iran into opening Hormuz but what has become clear is that hard power and projection is what matters. China doesn't have a Blue Water Navy that can project power and protect their shipping so they need us to do it for them. We are about to stop doing that for free and to remind those countries why they need to do our bidding or face consequences. This incident and Venezuela have truly sent a message about who is the Superpower, especially because Iran is reported to have had billions in Chinese technology and equipment. "Face" is everything to China and this has shown them clearly who is in charge.

leftlane4passing said:

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I work in the maritime industry and IMO, large maritime firms will just charge more and be fine. Everyone will suffer, the U.S. allies in Asia will suffer the most. Two weeks ago I had a major project in Mexico delayed, everything I had lined up in the middle east is obviously suspended indefinitely. Maritime firms will go Cape of Good Hope and charge triple, costs will be passed onto consumers. LL won't work with vessel traffic conducting any kind of operations in the Middle East, but no one is going to even try because they don't want to put their employees, assets, cargo, etc in harms way. This is why we took action against Venezuela, to secure more foreign oil, to plan for this. Japan has like 24 days of oil reserves and Korea is not too far ahead of that, they are ****ed if this goes on too long.

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Very insightful, makes a lot of sense.

Xi Jinping has known for a while that they couldn't go toe to toe with us, at least not conventionally, that's why a lot of his top generals/advisors were disappeared or outright executed a month or so ago for continuing to push for China's move on Taiwan. It also doesn't help that this is the second country to which China has supplied anti-aircraft systems, and they have been proven basically worthless. Russia is probably rethinking its assets, too.

Also, this is another reason to have Greenland in the fold. It was mentioned in the Greenland thread that it would be important to shipping.