A lot can change between now and November, but so far this isn't setting up well for the midterms for the GOP.

Quote:

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Gross domestic produce rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to Commerce Department numbers adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 2.5% gain.

At the same time, inflation held firm in December, according to the gauge most closely watched by Fed officials.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3% in December, according to a separate release. That matched the consensus forecast but kept the pivotal inflation measure well above the Fed's 2% target.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/pce-inflation-december-2025.html

Gov't shutdown = up to 2% impact

KerrAg76 said:

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Gov't shutdown = up to 2% impact

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You would think that would already be dialed into the 2.5% forecast.

Obviously not everything that is on my internet feed is true

That being said was Trump in the last couple of days talking about GDP exceeding expectations at approximately 4%
Maybe that was a January number or a forecast number ; possible hyperbole or cherry picking numbers etc …

Fox is saying PCE at 2.9%, not 3%.

Only a tenth difference. I'm just updating with the latest info I'm seeing.

Quote:

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The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.4% in December on a monthly basis and is up 2.9% from a year ago.

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https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/december-2025-pce-inflation

KerrAg76 said:

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Gov't shutdown = up to 2% impact

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Then why were analysts forecasting 3% growth despite the shutdown?

2025 was absolutely awful for GDP growth. The contraction in Q1 and the weak Q4 numbers. It's barely better than 2022 and substantially lower than 2023 or 2024

Reuters has PCE inflation at 3%. Apparently January could run hotter.

Quote:

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WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Underlying U.S. inflation increased more than expected in December, and signs are pointing to a further acceleration in January, which would strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before June.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the so-called core PCE price index climbing 0.3%. In the 12 months through December, core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% after increasing 2.8% in November.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-pce-inflation-heats-december-134652023.html

Real GDP in:

2020: -2.1%
2021: +6.2%
2022: +2.5%
2023: +2.9%
2024: +2.8%
2025: +2.2%

Silent For Too Long said:

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Disposable income and real wage have risen higher then inflation.

People have more real purchasing power, although whether they perceive it or not will be a factor.

Kicking out the illegals is going to effect GDP growth. It is still the right thing to do.

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Yep.

I'm still laughing at the Fed's 2% inflation goal though. Not sure how they can state that goal with a straight face considering reality.

Prices in IT are going vertical faster than an ICBM launch thanks to everything being diverted to AI.

I've seen prices for RAM triple in the past few months. SSDs and hard drives are not far behind. Heck, just saw a server jump by 40% overnight. Even non electronic components have gone up 10%-30% including simple pieces of plastic.

Who are these economists they are interviewing centering on 2.5%? Goldman Sachs was predicting 1.7% back in November. So not really a surprise at least to them.

They are predicting 1.8% for 2026.

VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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Silent For Too Long said:

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Disposable income and real wage have risen higher then inflation.

People have more real purchasing power, although whether they perceive it or not will be a factor.

Kicking out the illegals is going to effect GDP growth. It is still the right thing to do.

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Do you have a source on disposable income & real wage? Not sure about that.

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https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/real-average-hourly-earnings-for-all-employees-increased-1-1-percent-from-december-2024-to-december-2025.htm#:~:text=Real%20average%20hourly%20earnings%20for,U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics

shiftyandquick said:

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Trump is blaming the Democrats for the low GDP. Here is my surprised face.

Gotta love it when the party that controls every branch of the federal government blames the minority party. He must think that the American people are stupid (even beyond his base). His base will completely endorse this view.

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oh?

you mean like this?

shiftyandquick said:

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Trump is blaming the Democrats for the low GDP. Here is my surprised face.

Gotta love it when the party that controls every branch of the federal government blames the minority party. He must think that the American people are stupid (even beyond his base). His base will completely endorse this view.

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Well, it's a fact Democrats are stupid or they wouldn't be Democrats.

I blame the low GDP on everyone in Washington. We are where we are because of historical spending. There is no return from that.

It's purely managing the collapse from here forward so your vote becomes one of do we accelerate the collapse by voting Democrat, or do we try to postpone it a little longer by voting Republican. It's a **** choice to make at this point.

It's going to take a while for the US shutting down trade with massive tariffs to lift the economy by bringing back the industrial age to America. /s

shiftyandquick said:

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Trump is blaming the Democrats for the low GDP. Here is my surprised face.

Gotta love it when the party that controls every branch of the federal government blames the minority party. He must think that the American people are stupid (even beyond his base). His base will completely endorse this view.

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There are plenty of stupid people in this country as evidence by your post and many of your other posts.

Bad look for Trump when even the imaginary line isn't looking good.

shiftyandquick said:

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It's going to take a while for the US shutting down trade with massive tariffs to lift the economy by bringing back the industrial age to America. /s

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I won't fight you on tariffs because Trump's overall tariff policy was dumb. However, you are also completely ignoring the 2M+ illegal aliens that exited the country or have been deported. They contributed to some of the GDP loss which is a necessary hit we needed to take.

As with most things economic, there is more than just one variable here impacting the GDP.

Edit: I completely forgot to mention the government shutdown that the Democrats orchestrated, so yes, this GDP drop is definitely on the Dems side of the ledger as well.

YouBet said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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It's going to take a while for the US shutting down trade with massive tariffs to lift the economy by bringing back the industrial age to America. /s

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I won't fight you on tariffs because Trump's overall tariff policy was dumb. However, you are also completely ignoring the 2M+ illegal aliens that exited the country or have been deported. They contributed to some of the GDP loss which is a necessary hit we needed to take.

As with most things economic, there is more than just one variable here impacting the GDP.

Edit: I completely forgot to mention the government shutdown that the Democrats orchestrated, so yes, this GDP drop is definitely on the Dems side of the ledger as well.

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You mean shutting down the building of homes due to work crews not showing up?

Farmers not having enough people to pick crops?

Stuff like that?

Versus every company in America having massive uncertainty about the economy and trade and importing/exporting of goods because of the massive trade wars that Trump has engaged in, where things can flip in just a day based on his whim?

shiftyandquick said:

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YouBet said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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It's going to take a while for the US shutting down trade with massive tariffs to lift the economy by bringing back the industrial age to America. /s

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I won't fight you on tariffs because Trump's overall tariff policy was dumb. However, you are also completely ignoring the 2M+ illegal aliens that exited the country or have been deported. They contributed to some of the GDP loss which is a necessary hit we needed to take.

As with most things economic, there is more than just one variable here impacting the GDP.

Edit: I completely forgot to mention the government shutdown that the Democrats orchestrated, so yes, this GDP drop is definitely on the Dems side of the ledger as well.

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You mean shutting down the building of homes due to work crews not showing up?

Farmers not having enough people to pick crops?

Stuff like that?

Versus every company in America having massive uncertainty about the economy and trade and importing/exporting of goods because of the massive trade wars that Trump has engaged in, where things can flip in just a day based on his whim?

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Take tariffs off the table because we probably align on it. It's also not the sole reason for drop in GDP.

Illegal is illegal. There is no argument otherwise.

I guess you are an open borders advocate which is wholly against the Constitution of the US and means we no longer have sovereignty. Is that your position?

shiftyandquick said:

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YouBet said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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It's going to take a while for the US shutting down trade with massive tariffs to lift the economy by bringing back the industrial age to America. /s

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I won't fight you on tariffs because Trump's overall tariff policy was dumb. However, you are also completely ignoring the 2M+ illegal aliens that exited the country or have been deported. They contributed to some of the GDP loss which is a necessary hit we needed to take.

As with most things economic, there is more than just one variable here impacting the GDP.

Edit: I completely forgot to mention the government shutdown that the Democrats orchestrated, so yes, this GDP drop is definitely on the Dems side of the ledger as well.

---

You mean shutting down the building of homes due to work crews not showing up?

Farmers not having enough people to pick crops?

Stuff like that?

Versus every company in America having massive uncertainty about the economy and trade and importing/exporting of goods because of the massive trade wars that Trump has engaged in, where things can flip in just a day based on his whim?

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Here is a vote for illegal alien immigration, and all of the bagged that comes with it.

YouBet said:

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Silent For Too Long said:

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Disposable income and real wage have risen higher then inflation.

People have more real purchasing power, although whether they perceive it or not will be a factor.

Kicking out the illegals is going to effect GDP growth. It is still the right thing to do.

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Yep.

I'm still laughing at the Fed's 2% inflation goal though. Not sure how they can state that goal with a straight face considering reality.

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It's a long-term goal.

Gotta deal with the New Monetary Theory hangover in the short and medium term.

Ronald Reagan would say this is exactly what you should expect when you implement a massive new tax. You shrink the economy.

shiftyandquick said:

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Ronald Reagan would say this is exactly what you should expect when you implement a massive new tax. You shrink the economy.

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What would your marxist hero Talarico say?

shiftyandquick said:

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YouBet said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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It's going to take a while for the US shutting down trade with massive tariffs to lift the economy by bringing back the industrial age to America. /s

---

I won't fight you on tariffs because Trump's overall tariff policy was dumb. However, you are also completely ignoring the 2M+ illegal aliens that exited the country or have been deported. They contributed to some of the GDP loss which is a necessary hit we needed to take.

As with most things economic, there is more than just one variable here impacting the GDP.

Edit: I completely forgot to mention the government shutdown that the Democrats orchestrated, so yes, this GDP drop is definitely on the Dems side of the ledger as well.

---

You mean shutting down the building of homes due to work crews not showing up?

Farmers not having enough people to pick crops?

Stuff like that?

Versus every company in America having massive uncertainty about the economy and trade and importing/exporting of goods because of the massive trade wars that Trump has engaged in, where things can flip in just a day based on his whim?

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Ask yourself:

1) How many people today asked you to kill your dog because it is Haram.
2) Do you really want to start walking down the road where that is the future of America?
3) If it can happen in the UK, it can happen here.
4) The illegal aliens need to go home. There will be plenty of people displaced by AI that will need to work jobs that don't require a computer.
5) The uncertainty created by Tariffs is about 1% of the uncertainty created by AI. You think maybe Trump should outlaw AI to reduce uncertainty?

shiftyandquick said:

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Ronald Reagan would say this is exactly what you should expect when you implement a massive new tax. You shrink the economy.

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What does Ronald Reagan say about all of the other far left Marxist positions you have taken?

I dont see how this will effect midterms. The average moron doesn't even know what GDP is. All they know is "orange man bad" and "vote blue no matter who"! They're voting Dim regardless of any numbers.

Silent For Too Long said:

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VP at Pierce and Pierce said:

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Silent For Too Long said:

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Disposable income and real wage have risen higher then inflation.

People have more real purchasing power, although whether they perceive it or not will be a factor.

Kicking out the illegals is going to effect GDP growth. It is still the right thing to do.

---

Do you have a source on disposable income & real wage? Not sure about that.

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https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/real-average-hourly-earnings-for-all-employees-increased-1-1-percent-from-december-2024-to-december-2025.htm#:~:text=Real%20average%20hourly%20earnings%20for,U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics

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Tiny increase according to this data.

Well within the margin of error, especially when the guys doing the calcs have an incentive.

This is not an argument that I would make. You can make the counter argument, that it is not clear that inflation is higher than real wage increases. Or, you can credibly make the argument that real wages appear to be keeping up with inflation. But the data is not strong enough to make the statement you made, that real wage increases are provably more than inflation, in my opinion. It's pretending that there is a precision in the calculation that does not exist.

MemphisAg1 said:

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A lot can change between now and November, but so far this isn't setting up well for the midterms for the GOP.

Quote:

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Gross domestic produce rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to Commerce Department numbers adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 2.5% gain.

At the same time, inflation held firm in December, according to the gauge most closely watched by Fed officials.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3% in December, according to a separate release. That matched the consensus forecast but kept the pivotal inflation measure well above the Fed's 2% target.

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/pce-inflation-december-2025.html

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Just a note that the 1.4% increase was Real GDP Growth, after inflation.

That is typically what gets reported, but people tend to play games with that sometimes. I like to find sources that specifically state whether the statistic that they are relying on is nominal or real. In this case, it's Real Growth, so nominal growth of 4.3%.

This isn't a surprise to me:

1) The Federal government is shedding jobs. That is going to decrease GDP.
2) We are deporting a ton of people. That is going to decrease GDP.
3) AI is reducing our workforce. That is going to decrease GDP.

With all three of these headwinds, all of which are good for long-term growth, we still had real GDP growth in 4th quarter.

shiftyandquick said:

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Ronald Reagan would say this is exactly what you should expect when you implement a massive new tax. You shrink the economy.

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This is silly red-pen, blue-pen economics.

Taxes reduce the incentive to do certain things.

Taxes on work reduce work. Taxes on investment reduce investment. Taxes on savings reduce savings. Tax breaks on savings increase savings. Taxes on sales reduce commerce.

What do taxes on imports do? How do they directly shrink the economy?

When did Reagan say anything about tariffs impacting the economy?

If you are going to quote someone on economics, maybe quote an economist, with an actual quote, not force something into the mouth of The Great Communicator.