As has been stated, guv stay out.

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You are saying that grain fed beef has more flavor than grass fed beef?

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Yes, though I grilled a grass fed Wagyu ribeye once that had significant marbling...and it was outstanding.

Thunderstormr said:

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Miller has suggested a tax credit for heifer retention as an incentive to grow beef cattle herds.

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Came here to post this.

As a reminder to those not quite up to speed on "testicle to table"……

• Conception to birth in cattle is 9 months. ONE AT A TIME IS THE NORM
• Birth to weaning is another 6-7
• "Straightening out" (weaning to feedlot) is another 4-6 months
• Feedlot to slaughterhouse is another 6 months

While Numbers 2-4 can vary slightly, there's no getting around number 1, and these aren't pigs and chickens squeezing out a bunch in a hurry. Combine that long supply time with the concept that this a an extremely perishable product, and the laws of supply and demand can get skewed in a hurry.

A goodly chunk of the low numbers is due to persistent drought in Texas and the southwest. It was too expensive wife to supplemental feed them, so an awful lot of cows went to slaughter.

eric76 said:

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ToddyHill said:

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We are one of the few countries that finish cattle on grain, which produces the flavor, texture, and marbling we've come to expect in Prime, Choice, and Select cuts of beef. I am of the opinion the only beef category that would be affected by increasing imports (Australia as an example), would be ground products.

Regarding Mexico, before the ban, Sukarne (the largest packer in that country), supplied their sub-primals to a local, discount grocery chain in this area of Tennessee. Product (NY Strips), looked great (bright cherry red), but no marbling, no flavor, and tough…even after Jacarding (i.e. needle tenderization).

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

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You are saying that grain fed beef has more flavor than grass fed beef?

First time I ever heard anyone say that.

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Yes, and most people agree. There is a reason why steak houses don't serve grass fed beef. Grain fed tastes much better.

ToddyHill said:

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People need to take an Economics 101 course and focus on Supply & Demand.

Today's cattle herd is the lowest it's been since the 1950's. (that means Supply is low).

The price of beef is high because there are plenty of people who eat beef and have the disposable income to pay the price at its current levels (Demand is high).

Until demand falls off, or supply increases, prices won't decline. It's really that simple.

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We've pushed the government into everything to the point that people no longer understand it.

And as others have said, I've never seen as many BBQ joints in my life as we've seen the last 10-15 years. Texas Monthly can be partially thanked for that because the only thing it's known for is BBQ joint ranking. Right or wrong, they are the gold standard for that in this state. They are the US News and World Report of BBQ joint rankings here.

This dude is fake news saying we are losing all of these places. Worst case we are regressing to the mean after the recent run up with all of these new places because supply and demand has taken hold.

Who?mikejones! said:

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Golden lights of texass journo?

Are you crazy?

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Just a far left winger posing as a "Reagan Republican".

Psycho Bunny said:

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Jugstore Cowboy said:

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I haven't noticed a troubling lack of BBQ places. Considering the explosion of BBQ joints the last 10 years or so, it was very unlikely they were all going to succeed.

It's getting to be like Starbucks, with competing operations across the street from each other. And the types of specialty places that Texas Monthly and assorted Foodie social media like to hype are probably more expensive to operate.

Personally, I can get by without eating dinosaur ribs at $20+ per rib.

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This.

I'm not eating some where that a plate of brisket is nearly 30 dollars. Some of these places are stupid expensive and for what, dry up meat and soy boy sides These BBQ joints need to die and stop wasting meat, that a lot of us guys who enjoy smoking at home can buy.

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Same. When I first saw that article, I checked the 3 BBQ joints near me and a pound of brisket was ~$30/lb at all 3. With a family of 5, by the time we buy meat and sides, we're approaching $100 for a meal. Not happening. I'd much rather buy a couple of briskets, smoke them, eat what we want, and them vacuum seal the rest so we have some when we're wanting brisket.

And ribs? HEB near me throws baby backs or spare ribs on sale almost monthly, so I load up when I see them on sale and it's nothing to throw some on the KJ one Saturday or Sunday. Hell, the Kroger near me had BOGO on baby backs a few weeks ago. The nearest BBQ restaurant to me sells a full rack of spare ribs for $37/slab. That's insane.

And oddly enough, the best brisket from a restaurant in my area is the BBQ restaurant in HEB. On the rare occasion I'm home alone for the night, I usually go there to get a sliced brisket sandwich as it's still somewhat reasonably priced.

ToddyHill said:

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We are one of the few countries that finish cattle on grain, which produces the flavor, texture, and marbling we've come to expect in Prime, Choice, and Select cuts of beef. I am of the opinion the only beef category that would be affected by increasing imports (Australia as an example), would be ground products.

Regarding Mexico, before the ban, Sukarne (the largest packer in that country), supplied their sub-primals to a local, discount grocery chain in this area of Tennessee. Product (NY Strips), looked great (bright cherry red), but no marbling, no flavor, and tough…even after Jacarding (i.e. needle tenderization).

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

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My family would love to increase the herd size, but the south Texas drought isn't helping...

I am so thankful that we didn't sell more hay last year. It has come in handy.

American Hardwood said:

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ToddyHill said:

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We are one of the few countries that finish cattle on grain, which produces the flavor, texture, and marbling we've come to expect in Prime, Choice, and Select cuts of beef. I am of the opinion the only beef category that would be affected by increasing imports (Australia as an example), would be ground products.

Regarding Mexico, before the ban, Sukarne (the largest packer in that country), supplied their sub-primals to a local, discount grocery chain in this area of Tennessee. Product (NY Strips), looked great (bright cherry red), but no marbling, no flavor, and tough…even after Jacarding (i.e. needle tenderization).

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

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My family would love to increase the herd size, but the south Texas drought isn't helping...

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Another thing that I think most of rest of Texas just isn't aware of because they get plenty of rain. I had no clue it was bad as it was until we moved down here from Dallas.

My parent who live in northeast Texas had no clue about it and when I tell them how bad it is they are very surprised by it.

I actually got a call from the city last week threatening to fine me because my sprinklers were still running once a week which I had honestly forgot about. I had them running early morning and it was out of sight; out of mind. Regardless, our grass is all dead and I'm going to replace it all with hardscape and xeriscaping this spring. Pointless to have grass at this point.

We've been in Stage 3 water restrictions since December 2024 and moving into year 4 of the drought. Expecting to move to Stage 4 this year with industry getting restricted on water use by year end. 25% cuts in their usage expected.

It's very bad.

ToddyHill said:

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People need to take an Economics 101 course and focus on Supply & Demand.
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Until demand falls off, or supply increases, prices won't decline. It's really that simple.

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Have a degree in economics, and given the article is talking about BBQ joints closing, I'd say the demand for $30/lb meats at a restaurant has fallen, so the supply of those restaurants is falling to the equilibrium point that the market demand has set.

Now, for cattle/beef, there seems to be less vegans running around now, so the demand for beef is still high.

eric76 said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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More fat/marbling (which is a kind of flavor).

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I remember in high school going to a well regarded steak house. Having grown up on grass fed beef, their steaks were so lacking in flavor that I didn't think their steaks were very good at all.

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All beef is grass fed. It's grain fed at a lot to finish to increase fat content before slaughter. If you ate any beef from the panhandle there's a 99.99% chance it came from a feed lot there and grain finished.

ToddyHill said:

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People need to take an Economics 101 course and focus on Supply & Demand.

Today's cattle herd is the lowest it's been since the 1950's. (that means Supply is low).

The price of beef is high because there are plenty of people who eat beef and have the disposable income to pay the price at its current levels (Demand is high).

Until demand falls off, or supply increases, prices won't decline. It's really that simple.

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Thunderstormr said:

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Miller has suggested a tax credit for heifer retention as an incentive to grow beef cattle herds.

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If cattlemen can't make money at these prices they have an expense and management problem. Mostly likely starting with the King Ranch sitting in the driveway. Record high beef prices and you can't make money. SMH

Deerdude said:

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Went to Millers in Llano last eeek. A pound of burnt ends, a whole chicken, a half link sausage and small potato salad, $110.

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Miller's….or Cooper's????

I'm sorry, I went to both but ate from Coopers. Millers had great ribeyes and I get thick sliced bologna to fry for sandwiches. Almost as good as the ribeyes. Almost

Third sentence says it all - this is a troll post with zero intent for an honest discussion.
The pattern is well established, ban this crap.

Deerdude said:

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I'm sorry, I went to both but ate from Coopers. Millers had great ribeyes and I get thick sliced bologna to fry for sandwiches. Almost as good as the ribeyes. Almost

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Gotcha….know them both well. Bryan Miiller is a good Ag….sorry to see him get out of the deer processing business years ago….

I just started buying a half cow every year and bbq'ing myself at home.

Prices have gotten out of control.

reineraggie09 said:

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Thunderstormr said:

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Miller has suggested a tax credit for heifer retention as an incentive to grow beef cattle herds.

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If cattlemen can't make money at these prices they have an expense and management problem. Mostly likely starting with the King Ranch sitting in the driveway. Record high beef prices and you can't make money. SMH

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Who said cattlemen weren't making money? The ones not making money are the ones who don't have grass or cattle.

Garrelli 5000 said:

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Third sentence says it all - this is a troll post with zero intent for an honest discussion.
The pattern is well established, ban this crap.

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The OP probably doesn't even eat meat.

Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:

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I just started buying a half cow every year and bbq'ing myself at home.

Prices have gotten out of control.

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Shop loss leaders, get a vacuum sealer and freeze in bulk. I got a ton of choice ribeyes at Heb over December at $5.67 a pound

Garrelli 5000 said:

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Third sentence says it all - this is a troll post with zero intent for an honest discussion.
The pattern is well established, ban this crap.

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It's always been a troll account yet people still fall for it

Teslag said:

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Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:

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I just started buying a half cow every year and bbq'ing myself at home.

Prices have gotten out of control.

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Shop loss leaders, get a vacuum sealer and freeze in bulk. I got a ton of choice ribeyes at Heb over December at $5.67 a pound

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Only BBQ I buy is from a local place who have a Brisket sandwich on sale every Tuesday, but it just went up from $5 to $7 in the last couple weeks. I usually end up buying some ribs ($18/lb. for about 6 decent size ribs) too just to try to help them stay open. They also have a brisket nacho plate that is super good! Good BBQ, but the best is diy at home.

Definitely buy in bulk, vacuum pack and freeze. I prefer to buy from Glen's Packing Co. in Hallettsville. The meat is definitely fresher than stores, but I do have a rack of ribs in the freezer from HEB that only cost $10. Just had ~ 30 oz. Top Sirloin steak a couple of days ago which was bought back in November and cost about $20. The hamburger meat in the freezer was bought last July and was $5.69/lb for 10 lb. Just get a grill/ smoker and get to it until prices drop enough to frequent BBQ places again.

B-1 83 said:

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reineraggie09 said:

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Thunderstormr said:

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Miller has suggested a tax credit for heifer retention as an incentive to grow beef cattle herds.

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If cattlemen can't make money at these prices they have an expense and management problem. Mostly likely starting with the King Ranch sitting in the driveway. Record high beef prices and you can't make money. SMH

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Who said cattlemen weren't making money? The ones not making money are the ones who don't have grass or cattle.

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Then why is he proposing a tax credit? He is playing both sides.

I'm being Captain Obvious here but if you haven't shopped at your local meat market / butcher and you only buy meat at your grocery store, then you are paying way too much.

I now only buy meat at our local meat market and the prices are up to half of what HEB charges and the quality is superior. (HEB is still better than many other grocery stores FTR.)

reineraggie09 said:

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Thunderstormr said:

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Miller has suggested a tax credit for heifer retention as an incentive to grow beef cattle herds.

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If cattlemen can't make money at these prices they have an expense and management problem. Mostly likely starting with the King Ranch sitting in the driveway. Record high beef prices and you can't make money. SMH

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I don't think anyone is saying that cow/calf producers aren't making a little money for a change. The cry is to increase the size of the national beef cattle herd to reduce consumer beef prices a little. Heifers are worth so much as feeders that producers are deciding to take the money and not retain for replacements.

Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:

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I just started buying a half cow every year and bbq'ing myself at home.

Prices have gotten out of control.

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You probably can buy cow beef cheaper even though cull cows are selling pretty well too.

ToddyHill said:

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Quote:

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You are saying that grain fed beef has more flavor than grass fed beef?

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Yes, though I grilled a grass fed Wagyu ribeye once that had significant marbling...and it was outstanding.

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Grass fed Wagyu cattle would have to be ancient to ever get those slow-growing, inefficient beasts to an acceptable harvest weight. There is nothing coming out of that production system that will be inexpensive.

eric76 said:

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ToddyHill said:

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We are one of the few countries that finish cattle on grain, which produces the flavor, texture, and marbling we've come to expect in Prime, Choice, and Select cuts of beef. I am of the opinion the only beef category that would be affected by increasing imports (Australia as an example), would be ground products.

Regarding Mexico, before the ban, Sukarne (the largest packer in that country), supplied their sub-primals to a local, discount grocery chain in this area of Tennessee. Product (NY Strips), looked great (bright cherry red), but no marbling, no flavor, and tough…even after Jacarding (i.e. needle tenderization).

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

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You are saying that grain fed beef has more flavor than grass fed beef?

First time I ever heard anyone say that.

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Grass fed beef does have a lot of flavor.. Unfortunately its the flavor of ass.

Many years ago, Grampa built a meat cutting room at ranch with walk in cooler, meat bandsaw,tenderizers, grinder, work tables. All set up. He died before ever trying and a few years later Gramma set up to try butchering our own. We found out later that finishing with range cubes ain't the way. Horrible tasting meat. Lesson learned.

Another good hack is buying whole sub primals and cutting your own steaks and freezing. A whole boneless choice angus ny strip loin is $9 a pound from either Costco or Sam's.

Deerdude said:

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As has been stated, guv stay out.

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Agreed, but for some reason, Trump decided to give cattle farmers $12 billion of our money because they were failing.

If anything, he should have let them fail harder and let only those who were good at what they did continue.

Saxsoon said:

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ToddyHill said:

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People need to take an Economics 101 course and focus on Supply & Demand.

Today's cattle herd is the lowest it's been since the 1950's. (that means Supply is low).

The price of beef is high because there are plenty of people who eat beef and have the disposable income to pay the price at its current levels (Demand is high).

Until demand falls off, or supply increases, prices won't decline. It's really that simple.

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What has led to the slow supply?

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A couple of things:
1. Drought. Texas and the southwest US are currently in a drought that began in 2022 that is approaching levels of the 1950s drought. The thing is we had a drought from 2011-2015 that was just as bad, if not worse. That's two catastrophic droughts in 15 years. There are parts of south Texas where there's more grass on the Moon than in the pasture. The perverse thing you have going on right now is high cattle prices during a drought. That's usually not the case, so it is incentivizing reducing herd sizes to preserve what little grass is available. There's lots of great maps and charts that show how bad things are getting. https://www.drought.gov/states/texas
2. Input costs. Fertilizer, feed, and other inputs cost more now, but interestingly, feed costs have come down significantly due to tariffs and China buying corn and soybeans from other countries as a retaliatory measure. The upside is that if you don't have much grass, you can afford to do some supplemental feeding right now and keep the cows from turning to skin and bones. But the cost of everything else has gone up.
3. As B1 mentioned earlier, even if it does rain and the drought breaks (don't count on that anytime soon), you're still looking at two years minimum for a calf to go from conception to the plate. And that's not factoring in the factor that once it does eventually rain, ranchers will want to start restocking, which will shoot up prices even higher.
4. New World Screwworms. Due to the screwworm problem in Central America, Mexico is currently closed to imports. Cattle that would normally go for your cheap steaks and ground beef aren't coming in right now, and if screwworms get into Texas, it's going to get really, really bad. If screwworms establish a foothold in Texas, that $25/lb prime ribeye at HEB is going to seem like a steal. The lone bright spot there is that someone got Rollins to pay attention to this, and the feds are working with the Mexican government to get this under control. And we actually know how to fix the problem (sterile flies). But you can't just put two flies in a room and tell them to start making sterile flies. If the government can do what they did last time, and keep all the political bull**** on the sidelines, we can get this under control. But it's going to take some time and for certain people to set egos aside.

There are some other things (wildlife tax exemptions, acreage being lost to cattle production, and people just not wanting to raise cattle) that are some long term problems that will need to be addressed, but those four are the primary reasons why beef prices are so high right now. And we haven't even addressed the demand side of things.

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Those steak cuts are just outrageously expensive. I wonder who is buying them.

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I am.