Thunderstormr said:

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ToddyHill said:

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You are saying that grain fed beef has more flavor than grass fed beef?

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Yes, though I grilled a grass fed Wagyu ribeye once that had significant marbling...and it was outstanding.

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Grass fed Wagyu cattle would have to be ancient to ever get those slow-growing, inefficient beasts to an acceptable harvest weight. There is nothing coming out of that production system that will be inexpensive.

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Supposedly, the cattle breed with one of the highest palatability ratings is the Texas Longhorn. The problem is that it takes an absurd amount of feed and time to get them to that level, and the economics don't work at all for it.

reineraggie09 said:

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B-1 83 said:

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reineraggie09 said:

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Thunderstormr said:

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Miller has suggested a tax credit for heifer retention as an incentive to grow beef cattle herds.

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If cattlemen can't make money at these prices they have an expense and management problem. Mostly likely starting with the King Ranch sitting in the driveway. Record high beef prices and you can't make money. SMH

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Who said cattlemen weren't making money? The ones not making money are the ones who don't have grass or cattle.

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Then why is he proposing a tax credit? He is playing both sides.

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To encourage keeping replacement heifers for breeding, not eating.

cecil77 said:

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Those steak cuts are just outrageously expensive. I wonder who is buying them.

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I am.

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I must say, I've become very fond of A5 Wagyu. It truly is worth every penny.

I've got to start keeping replacements now, credit or not.

No Spin Ag said:

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cecil77 said:

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Those steak cuts are just outrageously expensive. I wonder who is buying them.

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I am.

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I must say, I've become very fond of A5 Wagyu. It truly is worth every penny.

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Honestly, I've not. Tried three times, twice prepared by friend who seem to know what they're doing and once in Spain. Just to close too Crisco for me.

Teslag said:

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eric76 said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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More fat/marbling (which is a kind of flavor).

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I remember in high school going to a well regarded steak house. Having grown up on grass fed beef, their steaks were so lacking in flavor that I didn't think their steaks were very good at all.

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All beef is grass fed. It's grain fed at a lot to finish to increase fat content before slaughter. If you ate any beef from the panhandle there's a 99.99% chance it came from a feed lot there and grain finished.

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Is there such a thing as grain fed beef that isn't started on grass?

This is how we end up in a sugar type situation with forever government subsidies. Cattle, specifically heifers, are an asset. If you want to get greedy and sell all of your assets, then you can't complain when you don't have any assets later. I grew up in the panhandle in the cattle business. As my dad used to say whenever it came to markets, bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

It's not being greedy to sell if there's nothing in the pasture for them to eat. I'm sure there are some weekend ranchers that decided to sell out, but most of those that have any sense know that those replacements are going to be even more expensive than they are now. Buying expensive cows is no way to make any money.

No sheets. A bred Brahma cross cow now is expensive.

In our part of the country, the Brahman X Hereford F-1 has always been a Cadillac.

HTownAg98 said:

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It's not being greedy to sell if there's nothing in the pasture for them to eat. I'm sure there are some weekend ranchers that decided to sell out, but most of those that have any sense know that those replacements are going to be even more expensive than they are now. Buying expensive cows is no way to make any money.

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Buying supplemental feed or burning pear isn't either.

YouBet said:

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I'm being Captain Obvious here but if you haven't shopped at your local meat market / butcher and you only buy meat at your grocery store, then you are paying way too much.

I now only buy meat at our local meat market and the prices are up to half of what HEB charges and the quality is superior. (HEB is still better than many other grocery stores FTR.)

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The only meat markets near me are the Mexican meat markets that I get fajita meat from, but the actual meat market that has beef has a far inferior product to what HEB has.

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My family would love to increase the herd size, but the south Texas drought isn't helping...

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Yeah, I hear you.

People don't realize how many acres of land one needs in certain areas of Texas to support one cow/calf.

eric76 said:

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Teslag said:

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eric76 said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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More fat/marbling (which is a kind of flavor).

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I remember in high school going to a well regarded steak house. Having grown up on grass fed beef, their steaks were so lacking in flavor that I didn't think their steaks were very good at all.

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All beef is grass fed. It's grain fed at a lot to finish to increase fat content before slaughter. If you ate any beef from the panhandle there's a 99.99% chance it came from a feed lot there and grain finished.

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Is there such a thing as grain fed beef that isn't started on grass?

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Wagyu in Japan maybe.

aTm2004 said:

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YouBet said:

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I'm being Captain Obvious here but if you haven't shopped at your local meat market / butcher and you only buy meat at your grocery store, then you are paying way too much.

I now only buy meat at our local meat market and the prices are up to half of what HEB charges and the quality is superior. (HEB is still better than many other grocery stores FTR.)

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The only meat markets near me are the Mexican meat markets that I get fajita meat from, but the actual meat market that has beef has a far inferior product to what HEB has.

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That's a shame and seems outside the norm, but I really don't know that to be true I guess.

B-1 83 said:

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HTownAg98 said:

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It's not being greedy to sell if there's nothing in the pasture for them to eat. I'm sure there are some weekend ranchers that decided to sell out, but most of those that have any sense know that those replacements are going to be even more expensive than they are now. Buying expensive cows is no way to make any money.

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Buying supplemental feed or burning pear isn't either.

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No, it isn't, but with feed prices returning to somewhat normal levels, it makes it easier to justify some supplemental feeding, especially if you have some freshly weaned calves you want to put some weight on before you sell them. You can actually make the numbers work now. Ask me how I know.

It ain't Florida for sure.

aTm2004 said:

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YouBet said:

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I'm being Captain Obvious here but if you haven't shopped at your local meat market / butcher and you only buy meat at your grocery store, then you are paying way too much.

I now only buy meat at our local meat market and the prices are up to half of what HEB charges and the quality is superior. (HEB is still better than many other grocery stores FTR.)

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The only meat markets near me are the Mexican meat markets that I get fajita meat from, but the actual meat market that has beef has a far inferior product to what HEB has.

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If it's half the price of HEB, it's probably not USDA graded. Nobody is likely to be selling beef cheaper than what the market says it's worth.

You can find a good buy in quality beef in a unique web platform called bid on beef. It is an online auction setup and you can find a good buy for good stuff now and then. There is a Texas source on there that will actually deliver it for free to you in Texas. Their beef is high quality Angus, Wagyu or Angus X Wagyu crosses.

Try a chuck roast on the smoker and I think you'll be pleasantly surprised . It's more expensive per pound but a lot smaller .

The government needs to stay out of it. Prices get too high, people stop buy or buy less than they were, some BBQ restaurants will go out of business. Prices get lower, people will start to buy again, some restaurants will start up. Let the market do what it does. Nobody, no business, has a right to succeed during both good times and bad.

HTownAg98 said:

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Saxsoon said:

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ToddyHill said:

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People need to take an Economics 101 course and focus on Supply & Demand.

Today's cattle herd is the lowest it's been since the 1950's. (that means Supply is low).

The price of beef is high because there are plenty of people who eat beef and have the disposable income to pay the price at its current levels (Demand is high).

Until demand falls off, or supply increases, prices won't decline. It's really that simple.

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What has led to the slow supply?

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A couple of things:
1. Drought. Texas and the southwest US are currently in a drought that began in 2022 that is approaching levels of the 1950s drought. The thing is we had a drought from 2011-2015 that was just as bad, if not worse. That's two catastrophic droughts in 15 years. There are parts of south Texas where there's more grass on the Moon than in the pasture. The perverse thing you have going on right now is high cattle prices during a drought. That's usually not the case, so it is incentivizing reducing herd sizes to preserve what little grass is available. There's lots of great maps and charts that show how bad things are getting. https://www.drought.gov/states/texas
2. Input costs. Fertilizer, feed, and other inputs cost more now, but interestingly, feed costs have come down significantly due to tariffs and China buying corn and soybeans from other countries as a retaliatory measure. The upside is that if you don't have much grass, you can afford to do some supplemental feeding right now and keep the cows from turning to skin and bones. But the cost of everything else has gone up.
3. As B1 mentioned earlier, even if it does rain and the drought breaks (don't count on that anytime soon), you're still looking at two years minimum for a calf to go from conception to the plate. And that's not factoring in the factor that once it does eventually rain, ranchers will want to start restocking, which will shoot up prices even higher.
4. New World Screwworms. Due to the screwworm problem in Central America, Mexico is currently closed to imports. Cattle that would normally go for your cheap steaks and ground beef aren't coming in right now, and if screwworms get into Texas, it's going to get really, really bad. If screwworms establish a foothold in Texas, that $25/lb prime ribeye at HEB is going to seem like a steal. The lone bright spot there is that someone got Rollins to pay attention to this, and the feds are working with the Mexican government to get this under control. And we actually know how to fix the problem (sterile flies). But you can't just put two flies in a room and tell them to start making sterile flies. If the government can do what they did last time, and keep all the political bull**** on the sidelines, we can get this under control. But it's going to take some time and for certain people to set egos aside.

There are some other things (wildlife tax exemptions, acreage being lost to cattle production, and people just not wanting to raise cattle) that are some long term problems that will need to be addressed, but those four are the primary reasons why beef prices are so high right now. And we haven't even addressed the demand side of things.

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I appreciate the thorough breakdown. I was curious if there have been any environmental laws passed that might have led to this but this just seems to be a complete confluence of events.

HTownAg98 said:

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Saxsoon said:

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ToddyHill said:

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People need to take an Economics 101 course and focus on Supply & Demand.

Today's cattle herd is the lowest it's been since the 1950's. (that means Supply is low).

The price of beef is high because there are plenty of people who eat beef and have the disposable income to pay the price at its current levels (Demand is high).

Until demand falls off, or supply increases, prices won't decline. It's really that simple.

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What has led to the slow supply?

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A couple of things:
1. Drought. Texas and the southwest US are currently in a drought that began in 2022 that is approaching levels of the 1950s drought. The thing is we had a drought from 2011-2015 that was just as bad, if not worse. That's two catastrophic droughts in 15 years. There are parts of south Texas where there's more grass on the Moon than in the pasture. The perverse thing you have going on right now is high cattle prices during a drought. That's usually not the case, so it is incentivizing reducing herd sizes to preserve what little grass is available. There's lots of great maps and charts that show how bad things are getting. https://www.drought.gov/states/texas
2. Input costs. Fertilizer, feed, and other inputs cost more now, but interestingly, feed costs have come down significantly due to tariffs and China buying corn and soybeans from other countries as a retaliatory measure. The upside is that if you don't have much grass, you can afford to do some supplemental feeding right now and keep the cows from turning to skin and bones. But the cost of everything else has gone up.
3. As B1 mentioned earlier, even if it does rain and the drought breaks (don't count on that anytime soon), you're still looking at two years minimum for a calf to go from conception to the plate. And that's not factoring in the factor that once it does eventually rain, ranchers will want to start restocking, which will shoot up prices even higher.
4. New World Screwworms. Due to the screwworm problem in Central America, Mexico is currently closed to imports. Cattle that would normally go for your cheap steaks and ground beef aren't coming in right now, and if screwworms get into Texas, it's going to get really, really bad. If screwworms establish a foothold in Texas, that $25/lb prime ribeye at HEB is going to seem like a steal. The lone bright spot there is that someone got Rollins to pay attention to this, and the feds are working with the Mexican government to get this under control. And we actually know how to fix the problem (sterile flies). But you can't just put two flies in a room and tell them to start making sterile flies. If the government can do what they did last time, and keep all the political bull**** on the sidelines, we can get this under control. But it's going to take some time and for certain people to set egos aside.

There are some other things (wildlife tax exemptions, acreage being lost to cattle production, and people just not wanting to raise cattle) that are some long term problems that will need to be addressed, but those four are the primary reasons why beef prices are so high right now. And we haven't even addressed the demand side of things.

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I appreciate the thorough breakdown. I was curious if there have been any environmental laws passed that might have led to this but this just seems to be a complete confluence of events.

aTm2004 said:

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Psycho Bunny said:

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Jugstore Cowboy said:

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I haven't noticed a troubling lack of BBQ places. Considering the explosion of BBQ joints the last 10 years or so, it was very unlikely they were all going to succeed.

It's getting to be like Starbucks, with competing operations across the street from each other. And the types of specialty places that Texas Monthly and assorted Foodie social media like to hype are probably more expensive to operate.

Personally, I can get by without eating dinosaur ribs at $20+ per rib.

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This.

I'm not eating some where that a plate of brisket is nearly 30 dollars. Some of these places are stupid expensive and for what, dry up meat and soy boy sides These BBQ joints need to die and stop wasting meat, that a lot of us guys who enjoy smoking at home can buy.

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Same. When I first saw that article, I checked the 3 BBQ joints near me and a pound of brisket was ~$30/lb at all 3. With a family of 5, by the time we buy meat and sides, we're approaching $100 for a meal. Not happening. I'd much rather buy a couple of briskets, smoke them, eat what we want, and them vacuum seal the rest so we have some when we're wanting brisket.

And ribs? HEB near me throws baby backs or spare ribs on sale almost monthly, so I load up when I see them on sale and it's nothing to throw some on the KJ one Saturday or Sunday. Hell, the Kroger near me had BOGO on baby backs a few weeks ago. The nearest BBQ restaurant to me sells a full rack of spare ribs for $37/slab. That's insane.

And oddly enough, the best brisket from a restaurant in my area is the BBQ restaurant in HEB. On the rare occasion I'm home alone for the night, I usually go there to get a sliced brisket sandwich as it's still somewhat reasonably priced.

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Exactly!!!

Went to Kroger 2 weeks ago and bought 4 racks of baby backs for BOGO, saw that Kroger had a whole chicken for sale. Got home, prepped them and smoked them up the next day. What I spent on meat and sides would have cost me triple at a local bbq spot.

Ever since I smoked some steaks on the pit, I'm done with restaurants. Keep your 60 dollar ribeye. I can buy a 3 pack at Costco for under that and still come out ahead with sides.

Silent For Too Long said:

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Quote:

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Also below a link from Texas Monthly, one of the golden lights of Texas journalism, about the closing of BBQ restaurants in Texas. Seems to be part of a larger trend of people cutting back discretionary spending in this greatest economy of all time, as some say.

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Disposable income has gone up since 2024 and has nothing to do with rising beef prices. Its a supply issue that is downstream of an increased demand issue. There are other factors that caused that, but Buc-ee's expansion is a pretty big one.

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Inflation has been crushing for a lot of the middle class, from insurance costs to auto, to basic repairs to groceries. Everything has risen pretty dramatically and a lot of people are cutting spending in other areas. It's like $25-30 for a 2-meat plate at any place that's decent. $20 for a HALF LB of brisket last I checked.

That's pretty easy for a lot of people to opt out of.

All that aside, I just randomly tried the moist brisket at the HEB BBQ restaurant at the new Bridgeland location and it was some of the best I have had in a long time. I was very pleasantly surprised. Prices seemed a little better as well. If you have one in your HEB give it a shot

Sid's just grandstanding at this point; knows he's about to lose his job.

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Ever since I smoked some steaks on the pit, I'm done with restaurants. Keep your 60 dollar ribeye. I can buy a 3 pack at Costco for under that and still come out ahead with sides.

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Yep. Some good prime ribeyes or strips from HEB are great reverse seared on the KJ. We still go to steakhouses a couple times a year, but it's more for a celebration than for the food.

Ag CPA said:

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Sid's just grandstanding at this point; knows he's about to lose his job.

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Or he wants to run for Governor

Ag CPA said:

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Sid's just grandstanding at this point; knows he's about to lose his job.

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To a democrat.

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Wagyu in Japan maybe.

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This is an informative video on Kobe beef that is also enjoyable. It was produced prior to Covid. As I recall, the woman is Japanese but born/raised in Canada.

Kobe Beef, the most expensive meat in the world

Also, cattle are ruminants. They have a 4 chambered stomach. While grain is certainly an attribute to flavorful beef, the nature of the bovine is to feed on grass. Ironically, cattle don't directly digest forage...it's the bacteria in their gut that break it down. The bacteria die off, producing free fatty acids that the bovine absorbs for nutrition. Who would have thought Symbiosis exists in cattle? I have to thank Dr. Howard Hesby for that bit of info. That said, memories fade, so if there's an AnSci nutrition major reading this thread please feel free to correct me.

eric76 said:

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ToddyHill said:

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We are one of the few countries that finish cattle on grain, which produces the flavor, texture, and marbling we've come to expect in Prime, Choice, and Select cuts of beef. I am of the opinion the only beef category that would be affected by increasing imports (Australia as an example), would be ground products.

Regarding Mexico, before the ban, Sukarne (the largest packer in that country), supplied their sub-primals to a local, discount grocery chain in this area of Tennessee. Product (NY Strips), looked great (bright cherry red), but no marbling, no flavor, and tough…even after Jacarding (i.e. needle tenderization).

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

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You are saying that grain fed beef has more flavor than grass fed beef?

First time I ever heard anyone say that.

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You don't listen to people who know what they are talking about.

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You don't listen to people who know what they are talking about.

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I'm all ears.

I didn't go to BBQ today because it was $23 for a half LB of brisket... I'd rather eat a sandwich and save the cash for steaks at home even though I can easily afford whatever I need.

It is the principal. God I sound like my dad.

Signel said:

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I didn't go to BBQ today because it was $23 for a half LB of brisket... I'd rather eat a sandwich and save the cash for steaks at home even though I can easily afford whatever I need.

It is the principal. God I sound like my dad.

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It happens the older we get. I'm 40 and I found myself sounding and acting like my father. Scary

Signel said:

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I didn't go to BBQ today because it was $23 for a half LB of brisket... I'd rather eat a sandwich and save the cash for steaks at home even though I can easily afford whatever I need.

It is the principal. God I sound like my dad.

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Like I said, I can slide over to Millers and get some thick sliced bologna, fry'er up with just a little burn and slap in some white bread. Heck of a sandwich.