infinity ag said:
aggie93 said:
infinity ag said:
aggie93 said:
AI and Robotics are part of this, getting rid of government jobs is part of this, and cracking down on illegals is part of this. That doesn't even get into how flawed the jobs numbers are to begin with. Doesn't mean that the job market is good or bad it's just very hard to read.
AI is thrown around but no company has told us how they are using the new AI tech which needs them to cut jobs. They do big talk and then hire in India. Yes, the same companies who fired people for not being able to return to office (after being hired remotely). Their jobs are done remotely in India.
So I don't buy that AI is replacing any jobs. A very very small percent sure, as it is a tool for a human. A screwdriver cannot replace a carpenter.
Have you looked at what has happened in Amazon warehouses? It's a robot farm. Same thing is happening across all kinds of manufacturing and warehousing. Waymo and Tesla are going to take out Uber in the next couple of years, seeing the Tesla driverless taxis in Downtown Austin for less than half the cost and you don't have to tip is a no brainer. Companies need fewer programmers to do more. That's why you see GDP and productivity starting to take off and employment is only going up modestly, especially in combination with the decrease in government jobs and illegal immigration enforcement. We now have fewer Federal employees than at any time since the 1960s and that has gone from the highest amount since the end of the Cold War when we reduced the military (not counting temporary census workers). It's dropping like a rock as well, we aren't close to done.
My company has virtually shut down all H-1B hiring and previously that was a huge percentage and we aren't offshoring. We are struggling to find talent though.
There are many things going on simultaneously that are impacting the numbers for good and bad and that's without looking at how flawed the way we do employment numbers is to begin with. The biggest thing that makes no sense to me is your railing against Trump of all people on H-1s. I've been recruiting for over 30 years and the shift in the last year against H-1s is more dramatic than anything I have ever seen by a factor of 10 and it's all coming from Trump's policies.
These things don't turn on a dime in terms of statistics but make no mistake there is big movement. It's kind of like how Chinese exports to the US have dropped off the table to the level of when China joined the WTO and falling. There are some dramatic shifts happening in the economy that are mostly very positive but it's a reset from what we have known for the last several decades. You can't look at things through the same lens as before or else you won't see what is happening.
Amazon is a pioneer in robotics for warehouses at a large scale. No doubt. But they have been leading for many years, the recent AI models have not much to do with it. Tell me one use case that GenAI has done other than chatbots or some kind of summarization of reports that Amazon has used to lay off 30000 people. If you tell me that, I would like to work on it and add it to my resume! :-)
H1B points, all good and I love hearing your perspective on it. I am just frustrated by the slowish speed of it but I guess Trump is going as fast as actually possible. However my worry is I hear H1Bs conspiring about using other kinds of visas like L1, EB1 etc to sneak in. What is Trump doing about that? Has he emasculated the H4 dependent visa? Why do people get OPT even now? H1B moves are great but that solves a small problem, the looting is far more than that.
I want to clarify that I am with Trump on this, I want him to do more, and I am also a 3 time Trump voter. My concern is what if the Dems win in 3 years, all the gains will be gone and we will be back to Indian invasions.
Things are looking up and I myself have been getting many more calls compared to last year. I'm talking to 7 companies right now at the same time. Let's see if anything works out or I am just a US citizen checkbox to show to USDOL before they renew an existing H1B.
You can't solve every visa issue in a year, I don't know what you are expecting. The changes have been dramatic and they are having a massive impact, it just takes time for that to trickle down. For instance they aren't going to end people's visas that already have been through the process, especially those who have their I-140 on the way to a Green Card. This is more about the future supply. The folks on OPT now and in school on F-1 are screwed for the most part and it is going to be very hard for people currently on H-1 to change jobs because new companies are very hesitant to transfer and sponsor.
L-1 is for people working for a company for at least a year in their home country and then moved by that company to the US, there is no loophole and it has to be a decision by the company to move them. EB1's and O-1s are very, very hard to get. I had my first EB1 in a while btw for a German PhD with a list of patents and publications a mile long. O-1s are the same. If you don't have a PhD and a lot of publications, patents, and spoken at conferences they are very hard to obtain. Those are top talent people and many are European btw.
H-4/L-4 are another issue. I suppose they can crack down on letting spouses work but realize that if you have those visas you are tied to the H-1/L-1. It seems kind of silly to not allow them to work since they are here (and they are a fraction of the issue) but that can certainly be looked at.
H-1 is where the heart of the issue is, that's where the abuse is an the overwhelming path for folks that are sucking up a lot of the jobs.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan