Fentanyl deaths falling off a cliff

7,962 Views | 95 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by coupland boy
txags92
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oh no said:

So there is a debate with people defending the stance that either Biden stopped fentanyl deaths or fentanyl deaths just stopped on their own before Trump took office. Amazing.

No. Not really any debate on most of that. The data shown on the OPs graph makes it clear a steep drop in Fentanyl deaths started in 2024. Nobody so far has argued that Biden deserves the credit for it. I think part of the issue with OPs original graph probably depends on how you calculate a 12 month rolling average to take out seasonal effects. If you calculate it as a centered 12 month average (5.5 months prior to month you are calculating value for and 5.5 months ahead) then you will see a trend start to decline in a rolling average graph 5 months before the monthly tabulated data actually shows the decline starting. If you do a forward looking 12 month average (month you are calculating value for and the next 11 months), then a decline starting in Jan 2025 will start to show up in the February 2024 rolling averages. And your graph will always be a year behind the actual data you have in hand. I actually suspect that may be what happened with OPs graph, but without knowing the source of that original graph, it is just a guess..
APHIS AG
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Independence H-D said:

Probably had something to do with widespread distribution and use of narcan. Then, continued by border security and interdiction efforts.

West Virginia, a hotbed of drug use has reported that deaths are down (Narcam) but use is up.
oh no
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No Spin Ag said:

oh no said:

So there is a debate with people defending the stance that either Biden stopped fentanyl deaths or fentanyl deaths just stopped on their own before Trump took office. Amazing.


Is it possible that another factor to the death totals going down is because people who were more likely to take those drugs killed themselves by taking the drug and others who were taking them learned or moved on to other drugs?

yes. it's entirely possible the synthetic opioid epidemic just naturally fell off on it's own as a natural cycle of dead people waking other people up to the risks vs the addictive euphoria of the high. that means the homeless epidemic should be trailing in those tailwinds any day now.
Kansas Kid
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aggie93 said:

Kansas Kid said:

aggie93 said:

Concerned Moderate Ag said:

FCBlitz said:

txags92 said:

aggie93 said:

The actions of the Trump administration have literally saved thousands of American lives every month. Absolutely fantastic news.



Unless those year markers are showing end of the year instead of the beginning, that drop started a year before Trump took office in January 2025.


What a pathetic attempt to poop on good news. If you can't accept that there was fentanyl pouring in at the same time as the open border doesn't correlate, followed by the correlation of the blockade to cut the supply off then are so brainwashed it is sad.

Let's see.

Supply high equals death count high. Check

Supply is cut to near zero the death count drastically drop. Check.


…but go ahead and tell me how wrong I am.


Well, he's pointing out that unless the graph was made in a way that no graph has ever been made before, the timeline of the red box is wrong, unless Biden shut down the border in his last year as president, which I don't think happened.

That's how you're wrong.

Biden didn't shut the border his last year but he absolutely tightened up the border which is part of why it spiked downward. He wanted to remove a very unpopular issue prior to the election by showing progress from historically horrific to just really terrible. Then had Kamala been elected they would have opened it wide again.

If shutting down the border is the single biggest reason for the decrease, why did they spike in 2020 when the border was also closed during Covid?

There is a dip shown during the brief period the border was truly being locked down during Covid, the border really wasn't closed for long and we certainly weren't enforcing the border anything like we do now even under Trump I. That said it is a multi pronged issue along with enforcement and issue awareness. Trump made the issue a priority and has put real resources and effort into the problem and it's clearly working. There are a lot fewer people dying. Any way you slice it this is a huge positive and he deserves credit.

So it sounds like you are admitting the increase from 2016-2020 was due to a lack of action by Trump. There was a massive spike in early 2020 (which you don't explain) followed by a drop that was still way above the levels when Trump took office in 2017.

If you are giving him credit now, why not blame Trump for the rise in his first admin but quick to blame Biden? I'm glad the deaths are down and I do think Trump actions are helping some but I think there are many other reasons why they have been dropping.
Silent For Too Long
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txags92 said:

FCBlitz said:

txags92 said:

aggie93 said:

The actions of the Trump administration have literally saved thousands of American lives every month. Absolutely fantastic news.



Unless those year markers are showing end of the year instead of the beginning, that drop started a year before Trump took office in January 2025.


What a pathetic attempt to poop on good news. If you can't accept that there was fentanyl pouring in at the same time as the open border doesn't correlate, followed by the correlation of the blockade to cut the supply off then are so brainwashed it is sad.

Let's see.

Supply high equals death count high. Check

Supply is cut to near zero the death count drastically drop. Check.


…but go ahead and tell me how wrong I am.

What a pathetic misunderstanding of the point of my post. This is obviously great news. But to claim it as the result of actions by the Trump administration as the OP did is intellectually dishonest, since the "closing the border" line shown on the graph appears alongside a large drop in deaths that occurred in 2024, a year before Trump took office.


The whole reason the Biden administration finally started cracking down on the boarder was because of Trump.

If cackles had won, they would have opened up the floodgates again.

This was well known and discussed at length during 2024. Were you in a coma?
GeorgiAg
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AG
Credit where credit is due. Good Trump.
one safe place
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No Spin Ag said:

oh no said:

So there is a debate with people defending the stance that either Biden stopped fentanyl deaths or fentanyl deaths just stopped on their own before Trump took office. Amazing.


Is it possible that another factor to the death totals going down is because people who were more likely to take those drugs killed themselves by taking the drug and others who were taking them learned or moved on to other drugs?

I would think not very possible. People who take those drugs have always died and were replaced by new users of those drugs. We have huge numbers that make up the underbelly in this country and no shortage of them. I don't think those taking those drugs suddenly saw the light and moved on to other drugs. I have no memory of that ever happening in the past.
Concerned Moderate Ag
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oh no said:

So there is a debate with people defending the stance that either Biden stopped fentanyl deaths or fentanyl deaths just stopped on their own before Trump took office. Amazing.


The whole point of this thread was to slob Trump's knob over the decline in fent deaths due to "Trump's policy" using a graph that didn't include Trump's second term in office when the policy existed.

The encounters with illegals dropped some the remainder of the 2024, but it certainly doesn't match the substantial precipitous drop in fent deaths of 2024. Illegal encounters after Trump took office took a nosedive by ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. If you're trying to say that tightening border security had the biggest impact, you'd expect to see an even bigger drop this year. Has there been one? Based on CDC data, it doesn't really look like it.

More likely it has more to do with the wide availability of narcan or some other factor, but so far that data hasn't been presented.
aggie93
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Kansas Kid said:

aggie93 said:

Kansas Kid said:

aggie93 said:

Concerned Moderate Ag said:

FCBlitz said:

txags92 said:

aggie93 said:

The actions of the Trump administration have literally saved thousands of American lives every month. Absolutely fantastic news.



Unless those year markers are showing end of the year instead of the beginning, that drop started a year before Trump took office in January 2025.


What a pathetic attempt to poop on good news. If you can't accept that there was fentanyl pouring in at the same time as the open border doesn't correlate, followed by the correlation of the blockade to cut the supply off then are so brainwashed it is sad.

Let's see.

Supply high equals death count high. Check

Supply is cut to near zero the death count drastically drop. Check.


…but go ahead and tell me how wrong I am.


Well, he's pointing out that unless the graph was made in a way that no graph has ever been made before, the timeline of the red box is wrong, unless Biden shut down the border in his last year as president, which I don't think happened.

That's how you're wrong.

Biden didn't shut the border his last year but he absolutely tightened up the border which is part of why it spiked downward. He wanted to remove a very unpopular issue prior to the election by showing progress from historically horrific to just really terrible. Then had Kamala been elected they would have opened it wide again.

If shutting down the border is the single biggest reason for the decrease, why did they spike in 2020 when the border was also closed during Covid?

There is a dip shown during the brief period the border was truly being locked down during Covid, the border really wasn't closed for long and we certainly weren't enforcing the border anything like we do now even under Trump I. That said it is a multi pronged issue along with enforcement and issue awareness. Trump made the issue a priority and has put real resources and effort into the problem and it's clearly working. There are a lot fewer people dying. Any way you slice it this is a huge positive and he deserves credit.

So it sounds like you are admitting the increase from 2016-2020 was due to a lack of action by Trump. There was a massive spike in early 2020 (which you don't explain) followed by a drop that was still way above the levels when Trump took office in 2017.

If you are giving him credit now, why not blame Trump for the rise in his first admin but quick to blame Biden? I'm glad the deaths are down and I do think Trump actions are helping some but I think there are many other reasons why they have been dropping.

Sure. I really wish Trump had done more to build the wall and shut down the border. He tried but he was blocked at every turn by the Dems. He should have tried harder. He basically stabilized the numbers while he was in office but should have done better.

Under Biden he opened the border wide open and stopped even pretending to enforce the law so it went gangbusters. At the end of his term facing re-election he tried to take some measures to slow it and they had some degree of success but only because it was so completely out of control. Of course I also would be interested to see if they really audited those numbers, it's not like government agencies under Biden were above manipulating data and the way they count Fentanyl deaths (similar to Covid deaths) allowed for manipulation.

In Trump II he has gone full bore and it's clearly having a significant impact.

So I am fine with blaming Trump for not going far enough in his first term but I don't see how that reflects positively on Biden and the Dems who did everything they could to stop him from fixing the problem.

"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
aggie93
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Concerned Moderate Ag said:

oh no said:

So there is a debate with people defending the stance that either Biden stopped fentanyl deaths or fentanyl deaths just stopped on their own before Trump took office. Amazing.


The whole point of this thread was to slob Trump's knob over the decline in fent deaths due to "Trump's policy" using a graph that didn't include Trump's second term in office when the policy existed.

The encounters with illegals dropped some the remainder of the 2024, but it certainly doesn't match the substantial precipitous drop in fent deaths of 2024. Illegal encounters after Trump took office took a nosedive by ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. If you're trying to say that tightening border security had the biggest impact, you'd expect to see an even bigger drop this year. Has there been one? Based on CDC data, it doesn't really look like it.

More likely it has more to do with the wide availability of narcan or some other factor, but so far that data hasn't been presented.

CDC data shows the decline continuing and that reported deaths are lower than projections. Your TDS is overwhelming.

This is the 12 month rolling average and it is still dropping fast

BTW, maybe you haven't noticed but Trump is sending ICE everywhere to apprehend drug dealers and illegals. It's not like he is getting Dem support for enforcing the law.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
oh no
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the America-hating communists' obsession with Trump's knob is really disgusting
txags92
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Silent For Too Long said:

txags92 said:

FCBlitz said:

txags92 said:

aggie93 said:

The actions of the Trump administration have literally saved thousands of American lives every month. Absolutely fantastic news.



Unless those year markers are showing end of the year instead of the beginning, that drop started a year before Trump took office in January 2025.


What a pathetic attempt to poop on good news. If you can't accept that there was fentanyl pouring in at the same time as the open border doesn't correlate, followed by the correlation of the blockade to cut the supply off then are so brainwashed it is sad.

Let's see.

Supply high equals death count high. Check

Supply is cut to near zero the death count drastically drop. Check.


…but go ahead and tell me how wrong I am.

What a pathetic misunderstanding of the point of my post. This is obviously great news. But to claim it as the result of actions by the Trump administration as the OP did is intellectually dishonest, since the "closing the border" line shown on the graph appears alongside a large drop in deaths that occurred in 2024, a year before Trump took office.


The whole reason the Biden administration finally started cracking down on the boarder was because of Trump.

If cackles had won, they would have opened up the floodgates again.

This was well known and discussed at length during 2024. Were you in a coma?

Show me where I have denied that that is the case. What Biden's autopen did in 2024 in response to election year issues sparked by Trump's campaign messaging is not the same thing as "actions of the Trump Administration", which is what the OP gave the credit to for the 2024 decline shown on his graph. We all agree that Trump sparked this change. The ONLY thing I objected to was that he was using a graph that stopped at the end of 2024 to claim things that didn't happen until 2025 caused it.
Concerned Moderate Ag
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The CDC shows it dropping at about the same rate since the end of 2023. Virtually no change in deceleration despite MASSIVE deceleration in illegal encounters (an excellent thing, btw, and something obviously Trump should get credit for).
deddog
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MelvinUdall said:

txags92 said:

aggie93 said:

The actions of the Trump administration have literally saved thousands of American lives every month. Absolutely fantastic news.



Unless those year markers are showing end of the year instead of the beginning, that drop started a year before Trump took office in January 2025.


Yes, which ironically started when Biden actually realized there was a border issue…you know when he was up for reelection.

Of course he was warned about it by the previous Trump administration, specifically when it came to Fentanyl, but the Biden admin was more concerned with DEI than the drug issue.
FobTies
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Fent awareness among users and dealers has had more to with decline than anything else.
oh no
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deddog said:

MelvinUdall said:

txags92 said:

aggie93 said:

The actions of the Trump administration have literally saved thousands of American lives every month. Absolutely fantastic news.



Unless those year markers are showing end of the year instead of the beginning, that drop started a year before Trump took office in January 2025.


Yes, which ironically started when Biden actually realized there was a border issue…you know when he was up for reelection.

Of course he was warned about it by the previous Trump administration, specifically when it came to Fentanyl, but the Biden admin was more concerned with DEI than the drug issue.

I don't think the main concern was DEI. I think the main concerns were needing to replace a lot of the traditional democratic voting base that had left for a populist movement as the current D platform has gone off the deep end and not being able to count on another scamdemic to utilize a mass mailed in election ballot harvesting operation again for next time.

...so human and drug trafficking be damned, cartel, gang, and terrorist risks be damned, citizens' safety be damned, housing shortages, labor markets, local infrastructure all be damned. Priority 1 was that they needed to import as many millions as possible as quickly as they could, knowing if they lost the next cycle, there's no possible way for more than a small % to be deported and long-term (and they pull idiot heart strings with crap like "maryland dad" or holocaust or slavery comparisons for the ones they do try to deport), they'll all eventually have the "path to amnesty" they always talk about and make liberal white women feel good about, so they'll all be good little government-depended free stuff seeking socialist voters in the future.
Martels Hammer
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FobTies said:

Fent awareness among users and dealers has had more to with decline than anything else.


No chance.

I know several people that have died from fentanyl overdoses. No amount of education was going to slow them down. My sister, my nephew, three of his friends. It wasn't something they didn't understand
AGinHI
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AG
Speaking of borders (fences) and falling off of cliffs, this 1895 poem is apt:

Twas a dangerous cliff, as they freely confessed,
Though to walk near its crest was so pleasant;
But over its terrible edge there had slipped
A duke and full many a peasant.
So the people said something would have to be done,
But their projects did not at all tally;
Some said, "Put a fence 'round the edge of the cliff,"
Some, "An ambulance down in the valley."

But the cry for the ambulance carried the day,
For it spread through the neighboring city;
A fence may be useful or not, it is true,
But each heart became full of pity
For those who slipped over the dangerous cliff;
And the dwellers in highway and alley
Gave pounds and gave pence, not to put up a fence,
But an ambulance down in the valley.

"For the cliff is all right, if you're careful," they said,
"And, if folks even slip and are dropping,
It isn't the slipping that hurts them so much
As the shock down below when they're stopping."
So day after day, as these mishaps occurred,
Quick forth would those rescuers sally
To pick up the victims who fell off the cliff,
With their ambulance down in the valley.

Then an old sage remarked: "It's a marvel to me
That people give far more attention
To repairing results than to stopping the cause,
When they'd much better aim at prevention.
Let us stop at its source all this mischief," cried he,
"Come, neighbors and friends, let us rally;
If the cliff we will fence, we might almost dispense
With the ambulance down in the valley."

"Oh he's a fanatic," the others rejoined,
"Dispense with the ambulance? Never!
He'd dispense with all charities, too, if he could;
No! No! We'll support them forever.
Aren't we picking up folks just as fast as they fall?
And shall this man dictate to us? Shall he?
Why should people of sense stop to put up a fence,
While the ambulance works in the valley?"

But the sensible few, who are practical too,
Will not bear with such nonsense much longer;
They believe that prevention is better than cure,
And their party will soon be the stronger.
Encourage them then, with your purse, voice, and pen,
And while other philanthropists dally,
They will scorn all pretense, and put up a stout fence
On the cliff that hangs over the valley.

Better guide well the young than reclaim them when old,
For the voice of true wisdom is calling.
"To rescue the fallen is good, but 'tis best
To prevent other people from falling."
Better close up the source of temptation and crime
Than deliver from dungeon or galley;
Better put a strong fence 'round the top of the cliff
Than an ambulance down in the valley.
InfantryAg
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AG
Horn_in_Aggieland said:

Trump is trying to put funeral homes, EMS, hospital staff, makers of Narcan, and drug dealers out of a job.

/Democrats

those aren't drug dealers, they're Undocumented Pharmacists!
Muy
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AG
The left don't care about results. It's all about their feels.
FCBlitz
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Concerned Moderate Ag said:

oh no said:

So there is a debate with people defending the stance that either Biden stopped fentanyl deaths or fentanyl deaths just stopped on their own before Trump took office. Amazing.


The whole point of this thread was to slob Trump's knob over the decline in fent deaths due to "Trump's policy" using a graph that didn't include Trump's second term in office when the policy existed.

The encounters with illegals dropped some the remainder of the 2024, but it certainly doesn't match the substantial precipitous drop in fent deaths of 2024. Illegal encounters after Trump took office took a nosedive by ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. If you're trying to say that tightening border security had the biggest impact, you'd expect to see an even bigger drop this year. Has there been one? Based on CDC data, it doesn't really look like it.

More likely it has more to do with the wide availability of narcan or some other factor, but so far that data hasn't been presented.


There is CDC info that has been posted that certainly does indicate the fentanyl has taken a nosedive in FY24-25 and it correlates to FY 20-21 when the border was flung open. Thank of all of that extra Fentanyl product that flowed over with the illegal migration and yet the moment Trump got into office the nose dive started. That Sir, was driven by an EXTREME change in policy….a real, dedicated change to protect US sovereignty.

txags92
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AG
FCBlitz said:

Concerned Moderate Ag said:

oh no said:

So there is a debate with people defending the stance that either Biden stopped fentanyl deaths or fentanyl deaths just stopped on their own before Trump took office. Amazing.


The whole point of this thread was to slob Trump's knob over the decline in fent deaths due to "Trump's policy" using a graph that didn't include Trump's second term in office when the policy existed.

The encounters with illegals dropped some the remainder of the 2024, but it certainly doesn't match the substantial precipitous drop in fent deaths of 2024. Illegal encounters after Trump took office took a nosedive by ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. If you're trying to say that tightening border security had the biggest impact, you'd expect to see an even bigger drop this year. Has there been one? Based on CDC data, it doesn't really look like it.

More likely it has more to do with the wide availability of narcan or some other factor, but so far that data hasn't been presented.


There is CDC info that has been posted that certainly does indicate the fentanyl has taken a nosedive in FY24-25 and it correlates to FY 20-21 when the border was flung open. Thank of all of that extra Fentanyl product that flowed over with the illegal migration and yet the moment Trump got into office the nose dive started. That Sir, was driven by an EXTREME change in policy….a real, dedicated change to protect US sovereignty.



Is the graph below from CDC the one you are referring to? If so, looks like the decline started in late 2023/early 2024, which would be 12 months before Trump took office, not "the moment he took office". I don't think Biden deserves credit for it because there are other factors like the avilability and awareness of Narcan OTC that played a bigger role, but there seems to be this big misconception that Trump took office in early 2024. He did not, in case there is still some confusion about that.

fullback44
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AG
I would think it's going down for several reasons

1. Trump is in office and threatened to come after the drug cartels plus he designated them as terrorist, the cartel doesn't want the US coming after them.

2. Many of the hard core users have already died off, plus young college kids are staying away from it so their pool of new people using has to be getting smaller and smaller. Those that at hooked on the stuff have mostly died off by now and if your still doing it your probably in line
No Spin Ag
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txags92 said:

FCBlitz said:

Concerned Moderate Ag said:

oh no said:

So there is a debate with people defending the stance that either Biden stopped fentanyl deaths or fentanyl deaths just stopped on their own before Trump took office. Amazing.


The whole point of this thread was to slob Trump's knob over the decline in fent deaths due to "Trump's policy" using a graph that didn't include Trump's second term in office when the policy existed.

The encounters with illegals dropped some the remainder of the 2024, but it certainly doesn't match the substantial precipitous drop in fent deaths of 2024. Illegal encounters after Trump took office took a nosedive by ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. If you're trying to say that tightening border security had the biggest impact, you'd expect to see an even bigger drop this year. Has there been one? Based on CDC data, it doesn't really look like it.

More likely it has more to do with the wide availability of narcan or some other factor, but so far that data hasn't been presented.


There is CDC info that has been posted that certainly does indicate the fentanyl has taken a nosedive in FY24-25 and it correlates to FY 20-21 when the border was flung open. Thank of all of that extra Fentanyl product that flowed over with the illegal migration and yet the moment Trump got into office the nose dive started. That Sir, was driven by an EXTREME change in policy….a real, dedicated change to protect US sovereignty.



Is the graph below from CDC the one you are referring to? If so, looks like the decline started in late 2023/early 2024, which would be 12 months before Trump took office, not "the moment he took office". I don't think Biden deserves credit for it because there are other factors like the avilability and awareness of Narcan OTC that played a bigger role, but there seems to be this big misconception that Trump took office in early 2024. He did not, in case there is still some confusion about that.




The drop in '24 to '25 was almost as low as in '20 when covid hit.

Great chart.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
Rattler12
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Could the drop be because a buttload of those people prone to use of the stuff have already died and the "pool" of fentanyl users has grown smaller ? If 100 people out of 10,000 people will use it and 99 of those have OD'd that makes for a pretty substantial drop in current deaths......Quien sabe
coupland boy
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AG
Good to see. Hipefully other positive indicators eventually start showing up statistically.
 
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