Cuba is next

14,141 Views | 127 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by akaggie
akaggie
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aggie93 said:

akaggie said:

halfastros81 said:

I think Iran is next but it's just a matter of time for the Cuban regime as well.


Sadly, we've been waiting for the current Cuban regime to fail for over 60 years. The leadership in Cuba isn't suffering. They will need to be forced out with help from outside of Cuba.

The problem is every time we have had Cuba or Iran on the ropes we get a Dem in and they breathe life into them. Obama and Biden both brought them back from the brink.

I don't see the embargo as a partisan issue anymore. If it was going to work, it would have worked decades ago. The only people living on the brink now are the Cuban people. Cuban government officials are still living nicely.
The Collective
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Aston04 said:

Rubio is literally talking about the possibility of invading Cuba..... And NBC host is saying... alright.. alright... hurrying him to a commercial break.



She dealt with him in exactly the same manner I deal with my dad when he is talking politics... a bit dismissive of a huge bit of information coming out of the mouth of the US SOS.
akaggie
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ttu_85 said:

Aston04 said:

Rubio is literally talking about the possibility of invading Cuba..... And NBC host is saying... alright.. alright... hurrying him to a commercial break.


No need to invade, a precise decapitation strike would do the job just fine as it did in VZ


Cuba's plight is extremely complicated. On one hand, it would be easy to eliminate Diaz-Canel, but there is no one to fill the void once he is gone. No viable freedom movement, or even an alternative party, exists inside the country. I wish that wasn't the case because it would make things so much easier.

However, as it stands, there simply isn't a mechanism in place to govern Cuba from the inside if there is a precise strike against high-ranking government officials. Someone would have to step in and manage the chaos. From a sheer logistics perspective, that would likely need to be the United States or an organization within the United States.

The chaos would also need to be managed on BOTH sides of the Florida Straits b/c there will be an influx of Cuban Americans rushing back to Cuba. (Most Cuban Americans don't see themselves as refugees...they see themselves as exiles.) Historically, the Cuban people (and actually most of Latin America) are VERY sensitive to U.S. involvement in their affairs. In Cuba, that sensitivity goes back to the late 1800s.

YouBet
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akaggie said:

ttu_85 said:

Aston04 said:

Rubio is literally talking about the possibility of invading Cuba..... And NBC host is saying... alright.. alright... hurrying him to a commercial break.


No need to invade, a precise decapitation strike would do the job just fine as it did in VZ


Cuba's plight is extremely complicated. On one hand, it would be easy to eliminate Diaz-Canel, but there is no one to fill the void once he is gone. No viable freedom movement, or even an alternative party, exists inside the country. I wish that wasn't the case because it would make things so much easier.

However, as it stands, there simply isn't a mechanism in place to govern Cuba from the inside if there is a precise strike against high-ranking government officials. Someone would have to step in and manage the chaos. From a sheer logistics perspective, that would likely need to be the United States or an organization within the United States.

The chaos would also need to be managed on BOTH sides of the Florida Straits b/c there will be an influx of Cuban Americans rushing back to Cuba. (Most Cuban Americans don't see themselves as refugees...they see themselves as exiles.) Historically, the Cuban people (and actually most of Latin America) are VERY sensitive to U.S. involvement in their affairs. In Cuba, that sensitivity goes back to the late 1800s.




Rubio can multi-task like a m'fer. Give it to him.
akaggie
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YouBet said:


Rubio can multi-task like a m'fer. Give it to him.

Or put an abuela from Miami in charge...Cuban abuelas are a force to be reckoned with!
nortex97
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Good post. What would you like to see happen, and when? What should the US Gov't be doing to help the right folks?

Bay of Pigs was a long time ago, it seems like a better operation could be executed today, but I don't know about the aftermath.
No Spin Ag
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rocky the dog said:




Chingao, Rocky! Lol
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
No Spin Ag
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Demosthenes81 said:

No Spin Ag said:

Someone please tell me there's oil to be gotten in Cuba so we can drive gas prices even lower.


Even better, 1940s and 50s cars, OEM baby!


Dibs on the '53 'Vette
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
akaggie
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nortex97 said:

Good post. What would you like to see happen, and when? What should the US Gov't be doing to help the right folks?

Bay of Pigs was a long time ago, it seems like a better operation could be executed today, but I don't know about the aftermath.


I would love to see the Cuban people somehow be equipped to chart their own course and determine their own destiny. I have no earthly idea how that is even possible without the United States at this point. If someone claims to have an easy fix, they definitely don't understand the complexity of the situation.

Complexity #1: Cuba doesn't have a lot of friends left. Maduro is gone. Russia is focused on Ukraine. Cuba has struggled for decades to service the debts they owe to China. (There have even been reports that China has taken Cuba to court in Europe over unpaid debt.) Mexico has been helping...but is that enough to sustain them? And will it even continue?

Complexity #2: Given the state of the infrastructure (power, water, healthcare, trash, craters in the streets, buildings falling down, EVERYTHING), it is going to take A LOT of money to put Cuba back together again. There are only a few countries in the world with the resources to pull that off. I think it is a pretty safe bet the United States does NOT want at least two of those countries setting up shop 90 miles from Florida.

Complexity #3: The U.S. embargo has been in place longer than I've been alive. I fully believe it is a failed policy at this point. 60 years and nothing has changed. All it does is give the Cuban government another excuse to blame their woes on the United States. The embargo only hurts the Cuban people. Government officials aren't suffering one bit. If the embargo and other restrictions were lifted, it would at least provide an opportunity for people in the United States to help the Cuban people.

Complexity #4: Cuba is facing an ever-deepening humanitarian crisis at this point. People are suffering and people are dying. There are three mosquito-borne viruses ravaging the country. No medicine. No mosquito spray. People dig through trash looking for food. People are dying on the street.

Complexity #5: There is a learned helplessness that has been conditioned by decades of fear. They do what they are told, and they do not question or disobey...even when it is beyond ridiculous. (I have a great example regarding a make-believe "cyclone" that I experienced first-hand, but it is too long to type this late at night!) Bottom line, this mindset makes it nearly impossible for them feel like they might be able to change their destiny.

I definitely agree about the Bay of Pigs fiasco and yes, I don't think we'd encounter many difficulties getting into Cuba...it is the "what now?" that will be the biggest problem if that ever happens.

(My father was actually recruited to participate in the Bay of Pigs and never quite let go of his hatred for Kennedy. Cubans can definitely hold a grudge!)

nortex97
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Thx, again good info. I agree, it would be complex. Hotair.com Ed Morissey piece on the WSJ/Wapo analyses of Cuba regime as the biggest loser with Maduro ouster. Some of the challenge of course is the massive security apparatus they have long maintained (can they keep up with the payments though?):
Quote:

The Washington Post details those challenges in its own report today, tacitly agreeing with the WSJ's assessment of Cuba being the biggest loser in this operation:
Quote:

Aside from an economic uptick during the Obama administration, when the resumption of diplomatic relations between Washington and Havana led to increased tourism and slender openings for private ownership and outside investment, the Cuban economy has never really recovered from the Soviet fall.
The nation has been on a steady slide into economic chaos for years, owing to U.S. sanctions and what even many of its supporters see as mismanagement by a sclerotic Cuban Communist Party.
Some chose to see opportunity in the darkness following Maduro's ouster. Carlos Alzugaray, a retired career Cuban diplomat reached by phone at his Havana home, said, "There is of course an increase of the threat, a very bad thing."
But it was possible, he said, that Cuba's allies in Russia and elsewhere would help, "and just maybe the government will … open up the economy and do what the economists have been telling them for a long time and they have refused to do."

Russia is not in a position to help anyone at the moment. Vladimir Putin has set Russia's reserves on fire to fund his war in Ukraine, and he relied on the black-market oil revenues facilitated by the same network Maduro used to backstop the Russian economy. Havana might have some luck with China, but cash alone won't solve this crisis now. The humiliation of the Maduro operation has opened another vulnerability for the regime, as the WSJ notes:
Quote:

For a tiny and impoverished island of about 10 million people, Cuba's security and intelligence structure is enormouswith about 100,000 officers, said Garca, the former Cuban intelligence agent.
"They have a presence in workplaces, schools, movie theaters and informants on every street block," he said. "Fidel Castro's security detail had 10,000 officers and its own counterintelligence unit."



akaggie
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nortex97 said:

Thx, again good info. I agree, it would be complex. Hotair.com Ed Morissey piece on the WSJ/Wapo analyses of Cuba regime as the biggest loser with Maduro ouster. Some of the challenge of course is the massive security apparatus they have long maintained (can they keep up with the payments though?):

Cuba runs out of oil: Six GAESA ships concentrate the last reserves in the bay of Matanzas
nortex97
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Scheinbaum over in Mexico needs to be real careful with what fights she wants to pick now. From the link:
Quote:

At the moment, only one foreign tanker is en route to Cuba: the Ocean Mariner, coming from Mexico, which is expected to arrive in Havana on January 8. The last shipment of Russian crude, aboard the Jasper, was unloaded in Matanzas on December 23 before heading to Santiago de Cuba.

The military intervention by the United States in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, left the Cuban regime without its main supplier.

For years, Caracas sent the island between 27,000 and 35,000 barrels of oil daily in exchange for medical, teaching, and intelligence services. Without those shipments, Havana faces an imminent energy collapse.

According to researcher Jorge Piñn from the Energy Institute at the University of Texas, if Cuba had to acquire all of its oil consumption on the international market, the annual bill would exceed $3 billion. Additionally, the low quality of the available fuel would drive up prices and particularly impact diesel and fuel oil.

"The Cuban economy is exhausted, without credit and without allies," warned Bloomberg economist Emilio Morales, president of Havana Consulting Group. "The regime is draining its own tanks to buy time, but the crisis is already structural. The collapse seems to be just weeks away."

"Daily struggle."
nortex97
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Not to be forgotten heading into the weekend:


The war press seems to be ignoring this in favor of Iran/Venezuela/Mexico/other news for some reason. No big deal, no one knows what Trump-Vance-Rubio's thoughts really are about the next targets.
aggiehawg
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nortex97 said:

Not to be forgotten heading into the weekend:


The war press seems to be ignoring this in favor of Iran/Venezuela/Mexico/other news for some reason. No big deal, no one knows what Trump-Vance-Rubio's thoughts really are about the next targets.

Just a friendly reminder, don't eff with our ships to try to help Cuba out.
Ag In Ok
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Have we indicted Canel for anything?
aggiehawg
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Ag In Ok said:

Have we indicted Canel for anything?

Not that I know of...yet.
GAC06
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F-5's? Watch out Cuba!
aezmvp
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aggiehawg said:

nortex97 said:

Not to be forgotten heading into the weekend:


The war press seems to be ignoring this in favor of Iran/Venezuela/Mexico/other news for some reason. No big deal, no one knows what Trump-Vance-Rubio's thoughts really are about the next targets.

Just a friendly reminder, don't eff with our ships to try to help Cuba out.

Don't. Touch. Our. Boats.
La Bamba
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Cuba needs a young forward thinking leader to bring that country back into the 21st century. And they need to understand and have this as its central policy backbone, leveraging Cuba's biggest natural and geographic advantage: the fact that its 90 miles away from the most successful economy in the history of mankind.

Open its borders to young Cuban Americans living in Florida or Texas or NY to bring American-style business into the country. Cuba lacks young people and bringing in wave ms of young hungry American educated and bilingual folks is the way to do it. Build a legal framework that works and bring in American investment dollars. Build Cuba into the Caribbean Taiwan. Profit.
akaggie
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La Bamba said:

Cuba needs a young forward thinking leader to bring that country back into the 21st century. And they need to understand and have this as its central policy backbone, leveraging Cuba's biggest natural and geographic advantage: the fact that its 90 miles away from the most successful economy in the history of mankind.

Open its borders to young Cuban Americans living in Florida or Texas or NY to bring American-style business into the country. Cuba lacks young people and bringing in wave ms of young hungry American educated and bilingual folks is the way to do it. Build a legal framework that works and bring in American investment dollars. Build Cuba into the Caribbean Taiwan. Profit.


I think you are spot-on! For Cuba to have a viable future, it will require young leadership and economic infusions from the U.S. Cuba would love to have young Cuban-Americans come in with their U.S. dollars…they LOVE U.S. currency. Their own currency is worthless and you are hard pressed to even find anyone willing to accept Cuban currency inside Cuba.

The biggest economic difficulty for Americans visiting the island is the inability to conduct any banking transactions. Not only cannot Americans not use credit cards issued from American banks, they can't even log into their U.S.-based bank accounts to pay bills back home, move money, etc. It is the U.S. blocking those transactions, NOT Cuba. If the U.S. would lift the embargo, infusing our successful economic practices into the Cuban economy would be so much easier. As it stands, Americans have to travel and walk around with large amounts of cash, which sadly really isn't conducive to conducting any sort of business transactions.

Currently, you have to be a Cuban citizen to "own" property. People have found ways around that, but it usually requires marriage and even then the non-Cuban still basically doesn't have any rights. The "AirBNB" we used was actually owned by a man in Europe who married a Cuban woman and bought the home and refurbished it. To even make a reservation, you have to wire the funds to a Swiss bank account. It was VERY nerve-racking, but it ended up being totally legit and the accommodations were gorgeous. (Pics attached) There is still soooo much potential left in Havana, if they find a way to get past the infrastructure issues.

Cubans are allowed to have MIPYMES (very small businesses) which is at least a step in the right direction. Even those businesses struggle with the lack of technology and high employee turnover due to emigration.

About ten years ago, Startup Aggieland was actually doing some work in Cuba to help push entrepreneurial ideas.




akaggie
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"Collapse or change": Marco Rubio issues a direct warning to the Cuban regime
nortex97
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I like it. Also, Cuban intelligence is still a threat/problem within the US, and not just to Cuban nationals/exiles.

"The enemy of communism is its own reality."
Quote:

The Castro regime mobilizes its last accomplices while reinforcing militarization in Havana, Cuba.

In a new attempt at political propaganda, the Castro regime has taken to the streets the few accomplices it still has left to lead demonstrations in favor of the narcochavista regime of Venezuela and to demand the supposed "freedom" of narcodictator Nicols Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.

In recent hours, the Cuban dictatorship has staged what many describe as a forced political show, using officials from state agencies, military personnel, and university studentsthe latter compelled to attend under academic and job-related threats, according to reports received from various provinces on the Island.

The gatherings, organized and directed by structures of the Communist Party and the state's repressive organs, have taken place in various territories across the country, repeating official slogans in support of the Venezuelan regime and in open defense of Nicols Maduro, who is today internationally accused of drug trafficking, organized crime, and systematic human rights violations.

Meanwhile, in Havana, an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty hangs in the air.

The regime has visibly reinforced police and military presence, deploying armed personnel at strategic points in the capital. Eye-catching is the use of obsolete weaponry, comparable to that displayed in Second World War museumsan image that reflects both the deteriorated state of the repressive forces and the regime's fear of a social outbreak.

While the Cuban people face prolonged blackouts, food shortages, lack of medicines, and an unprecedented economic crisis, Castroism continues to prioritize its ideological loyalty to narcochavismo, allocating resources and internal pressures to sustain a political discourse that is increasingly isolated and discredited on the international stage.

These actions demonstrate, once again, the alliance between the dictatorships of Cuba and Venezuela, united not by the well-being of their peoples, but by the survival of a repressive model sustained through coercion, propaganda, and social control.


nortex97
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POTUS post:

CyclingAg82
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aggiedata said:

Burdizzo said:

Oh no. Where will Michael Moore get his health care if Cuba flips?


Michael Moore would flip Cuba.

Hank Johnson would be very concerned.....
YouBet
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The man can multi-task like no one else.
2wealfth Man
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nortex97 said:

POTUS post:



aggiedata
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A deal you can't refuse.

aggiedata
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Make the deal

YouBet
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I want to know what the Cuba deal is. We haven't seen any details on that yet. Regardless, Cuba is likely to collapse on its own so that one seems inevitable.
aggiedata
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So much is going on. Nobody knows what this means. And that's the way Trump wins

nortex97
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I think that's Trump himself looking at what would become the construction of the new ballroom he is having built at the WH to replace the old FDR-era office building Dems melted down about. Pretty much a reference to wanting to re-build Cuba into a non-dilapidated cesspool of communism/hunger.
YouBet
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aggiedata said:

So much is going on. Nobody knows what this means. And that's the way Trump wins



Plot twist: that looks like a photo you would see in UAP/UFO topic. A grainy shot from afar so that you can't quite tell what it is or what it means.

Conclusion: he's announcing an alien invasion and he's trying to secure the Western Hemisphere to prep us for resistance.
Cyprian
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YouBet said:

aggiedata said:

So much is going on. Nobody knows what this means. And that's the way Trump wins



Plot twist: that looks like a photo you would see in UAP/UFO topic. A grainy shot from afar so that you can't quite tell what it is or what it means.

Conclusion: he's announcing an alien invasion and he's trying to secure the Western Hemisphere to prep us for resistance.

Somebody better locate Will Smith asap
akaggie
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YouBet said:

I want to know what the Cuba deal is. We haven't seen any details on that yet. Regardless, Cuba is likely to collapse on its own so that one seems inevitable.


For decades, the U.S. has said it would normalize relations and lift the embargo if Cuba would hold free elections AND release political prisoners…so I think the deal is probably pretty simple.

Having said that, the Cuban government has made an art form out of being petty. Purportedly, they don't even cash our checks for payment of our lease of Guantanamo.

So, what may seem like a fairly easy deal to sane people, is likely not "easy" for the Cuban government. My half-Cuban fingers are crossed hoping that Diaz-Canel and Raul Castro are making arrangements to flee to a Cuban-friendly country and that all of this can FINALLY end as smoothly as possible.
akaggie
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They always have a flair for the dramatic…



 
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