Rubicante said:

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In 1970, around 2% of kids who attended Catholic school came from non-Catholic families. It's now around 22%.

People are desperate for their kids to be anywhere other than a public school.

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My kids were mostly private schooled. One moved to public HS during Covid and he'll tell you he wasn't taught anything. Fortunately, his private school education carried him.

One moved to MS/8th gr during Covid. He wasn't taught much either. Fortunately, he is intellectually curious and self-taught. In 9th grade... he had 7 classes.

3 were coaches who taught like coaches.
1 was an administrator who created the foreign language curriculum and forced into the classroom. She was so bad he decided even though he had 2yrs of private school French... he'd rather change to Spanich to not have her. She'd tell them to use Google Translate, and then tell him he used words he wasn't taught.

His Math and Chem teachers were 1st year right out of college and his English teacher was a 1st yr teacher who left journalism during Covid because their magazine closed.

So... 3 coaches and 4 1st yr teachers in what most would consider a highly touted district.

People with children are moving out of big cities. In the suburbs the issue is people not having as many children, housing too expensive for young families to move into anymore. You have a bunch of empty nesters hanging on to their home longer because it's too expensive to move.

In SA we used to joke you were a dirty looper if you lived inside 410. Then over 20 years it became 1604. It's about to be 46.

SAISD, landlocked in and around the downtown and central SA area has been shrinking. Everyone is moving outward and districts like NEISD and NISD are exploding. Seems like families are moving to the newer, less ghetto areas to raise families. Anyone moving here starts out there.

backintexas2013 said:

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Can't speak for tarrant county but Austin ISD is shrinking because people are moving out of Austin. They are having to combine schools because of it. Families are moving out and younger people are moving in. Then when they have kids they move out to better schools.

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Same things is happening in San Antonio. SAISD has closed a lot of schools. Usually the first to go are the underperforming campuses

UnderoosAg said:

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In SA we used to joke you were a dirty looper if you lived inside 410. Then over 20 years it became 1604. It's about to be 46.

SAISD, landlocked in and around the downtown and central SA area has been shrinking. Everyone is moving outward and districts like NEISD and NISD are exploding. Seems like families are moving to the newer, less ghetto areas to raise families. Anyone moving here starts out there.

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NEISD is actually consolidating some campuses too, but that is usually localized decreased enrollment areas. Overall the district is still expanding. Kudos to them for trying stay wlahead of this issue.

Have any of you had your school portion of your property taxes decreased as a result? With all of these school closing, logic and morals would say that your taxes should be decreasing.

Above was rhetorical. I already know the answer.

kag00 said:

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The lower birth rate many identified is probably the biggest factor. However, one thing that has been interesting to see is the "popular" areas which saw strong spikes in housing prices. It makes it significantly harder for families with young kids to afford to move into these areas and a shrinking enrollment follows. Add to lots of people in many of the older, but still desirable areas not moving since they are locked into their mortgages so units are not turning to families with kids. Eans (Westlake) is experiencing this and closing schools while also being open that they are accepting transfers.

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This is exactly what's happening in McKinney. Stonebridge area is closing two schools. It was once the hottest area of McKinney. Now the homes are $800k and young families can't afford them so they're going to N McKinney, Melissa, Anna, etc.

YouBet said:

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Have any of you had your school portion of your property taxes decreased as a result? With all of these school closing, logic and morals would say that your taxes should be decreasing.

Above was rhetorical. I already know the answer.

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Oh no that's not how this works. First you have to hire multiple assistant superintendents at $250k plus then do a bond in which a pathetic 7% of eligible voters will vote and allow them to open multiple campuses and build first class athletic facilities.

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Anybody aware of any data on the trend of increased home-school plus private school vs. the decline in public school attendance?

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I'd be interested in seeing that. Private schools in Houston have been busting at the seams for over a decade and there are more of them every few years. It's quite the contrast to the 80s and 90s of my youth when enrollments were declining due to urban-suburban flight.

I don't think many of my friends would even joke about sending their kids to HISD past elementary or middle school. Although it is certainly true that our generation has had fewer kids and tend to have them later in life.

I spent abiut 80K more on a house in a good ISD instead of paying for private school. That 80K has appreciated about 50% over the last 8 years

YouBet said:

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Stressboy said:

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My school district near DFW airport had a huge fight about shutting down an elementary school because of falling enrollment. The school designated, rioted and overturned the decision and now they are slashing tons of other stuff.

Our issue is housing cost. We are affluent and all the older folks are not leaving town as they age.

Thus there is not enough housing stock, and since the inflation craze and high interest rates it's difficult for young families to move into our city. A side note is that 25% of our housing stock is leased which is just crazy.

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So irresponsible. We are going to force you to pay property taxes to fund us even though we aren't needed.

Even Dallas ISD shut down several schools about a decade ago because there simply weren't enough students to operate the schools.

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Yes, it was just political strong arming the school board. We closed another school about 2 years ago but they picked off the smallest one. They should just need to get their butts out and recruit. We have one of strongest public schools systems around, and there should be kids in surrounding communities who would like to go to our schools. I'm sure there are ways to get creative.

backintexas2013 said:

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Can't speak for tarrant county but Austin ISD is shrinking because people are moving out of Austin. They are having to combine schools because of it. Families are moving out and younger people are moving in. Then when they have kids they move out to better schools.

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This. AiSD is shrinking but the burbs are still rapidly building schools.

Argyle ISD is exploding and will continue to do so. Just opened a 5th elementary, about to open a second middle school and 2nd high school.

And it hasn't even gotten warmed up yet.

Logos Stick said:

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And studies have shown that 2nd and 3rd gen Hispanics born to illegals also have fewer babies. The assertion that Hispanics are breeding here in America is false. The more educated and wealthy a population becomes, the fewer children it has. Doesn't matter the ethnicity or race.

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This is true pretty much across all cultures.

I live in a great school district and both my boys graduated from it. A lot of the younger kids are doing home school and private now and I don't blame them. Home schooling is so much easier and effective than it was 20 years ago. Parents want more control over what their kids are taught.

Fewer kids is part of that too.

They should have used the cold setting to launder taxpayer funds.

The ISD laid off the shrinks?

YouBet said:

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Have any of you had your school portion of your property taxes decreased as a result? With all of these school closing, logic and morals would say that your taxes should be decreasing.

Above was rhetorical. I already know the answer.

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I thought that with the school choice law, the money went with the student (meaning the parents get the charter school funded by the district). So they still need your money for each student, even if they're going to private school. Is this incorrect?

northeastag said:

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YouBet said:

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Have any of you had your school portion of your property taxes decreased as a result? With all of these school closing, logic and morals would say that your taxes should be decreasing.

Above was rhetorical. I already know the answer.

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I thought that with the school choice law, the money went with the student (meaning the parents get the charter school funded by the district). So they still need your money for each student, even if they're going to private school. Is this incorrect?

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No idea.

Burdizzo said:

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UnderoosAg said:

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In SA we used to joke you were a dirty looper if you lived inside 410. Then over 20 years it became 1604. It's about to be 46.

SAISD, landlocked in and around the downtown and central SA area has been shrinking. Everyone is moving outward and districts like NEISD and NISD are exploding. Seems like families are moving to the newer, less ghetto areas to raise families. Anyone moving here starts out there.

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NEISD is actually consolidating some campuses too, but that is usually localized decreased enrollment areas. Overall the district is still expanding. Kudos to them for trying stay wlahead of this issue.

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Fort Bend ISD is finally having this discussion as well, along with redrawing zoning boundaries to better utilize some of the schools, especially the high schools. FBISD is no longer considered a growing district and it is definitely fully built out. I think the number of graduating seniors this year is greater than the number of expected K/1st grade coming in.

Depending on where UIL sets the cutoff for 6A, we may have six 6A schools, five 5A schools and one 4A school. This is the first time in a while, maybe ever, that I expect the 6A cutoff to drop. It was 2275 for the most recent redistricting.

CSTAT school board just voted to go open enrollment. Two thirds of the beds in CS are rented. The remaining homeowners are generally in high dollar houses. There are so many fees for new builds a home builder generally targets half million dollar houses. Young families all choose to live in Bryan. Somebody realized after the next couple of graduating HS classes, overall enrollment is going to shrink. Thus the move to open enrollment in CSTAT ISD.

Rubicante said:

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In 1970, around 2% of kids who attended Catholic school came from non-Catholic families. It's now around 22%.

People are desperate for their kids to be anywhere other than a public school.

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Mass transit.

Updated Conference Cutoff Predictions:
6A: 2220+ (250 schools, including opt ups)
5A: 1300-2219 (246 football schools)

6A could have more or less schools. UIL usually does less. 5A could have more, which UIL usually does. Not sure I'd want a lower 5A cutoff though. #txhsfb

— Texas HS Sports (@Texas_HS_Sports) December 2, 2025

https://tea.texas.gov/reports-and-data/school-performance/accountability-research/enroll-2024-25.pdf

Plenty of stats at this site, which states last year's Texas public school enrollment increased 0.2% last year and 6.0% over 10 years (not 6.0% per year, but about 0.58% annually, compounded.)

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In the 2024-25 school year, 5,544,255 students were enrolled in Texas public schools, an increase of 13,019 students, or 0.2 percent, from the 2023-24 school year. The annual percentage change in enrollment between 2023-24 and 2024-25 was the second-smallest since the Texas Education Agency (TEA) began collecting enrollment data in the Public Education Information Management System (PEIMS).

Over the 10-year period between 2014-15 and 2024-25, total enrollment in Texas public schools increased by 312,190 students, or 6.0 percent.

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Mustang1 said:

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Apparently Dulles is the only school dropping down since the cutoff will be closer to 2220 this cycle although Hightower is questionable. Will Marshall & Willowridge ever merge?

Updated Conference Cutoff Predictions:
6A: 2220+ (250 schools, including opt ups)
5A: 1300-2219 (246 football schools)

6A could have more or less schools. UIL usually does less. 5A could have more, which UIL usually does. Not sure I'd want a lower 5A cutoff though. #txhsfb

— Texas HS Sports (@Texas_HS_Sports) December 2, 2025

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Hightower's snapshot attendance was 2232, so they will be very close to the cut number.

A Marshall-Willowridge merge would make sense from a campus utilization perspective. I don't know if that has been part of the discussions being had, but they did consolidate for a semester in 2017 when Willowridge had black mold. Willowridge has a longer institutional history and that will be a major hurdle to clear.

Willowridge's enrollment still puts them in 4A even with a projected lower cutoff. Their district has to be a nightmare for travel...Brazosport, Navasota.

Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:

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Homeschool
Academy's centered on Sport and / or Faith
Charter Schools
Private Schools

Public schools are basically go watch a YouTube video to learn plus woke. So many are opting out.

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This..... More families have the means to use alternative routes for their child's education.

Families cannot afford the homes in many districts. Affordability is not a hoax. It's a real problem.

So the districts are razing schools.

rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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"shrinking enrollment"

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Kids are smaller than they used to be.

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Unfortunately, the statistics say the opposite.

BonfireNerd04 said:

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rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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"shrinking enrollment"

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Kids are smaller than they used to be.

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Unfortunately, the statistics say the opposite.

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Victims of inflation?