Lots of Federal income from tariffs coming in

4,375 Views | 48 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by Kansas Kid
IIIHorn
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Great.

Another tax to pay.


( ...voice punctuated with a clap of distant thunder... )
Logos Stick
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Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Logos Stick said:

Science Denier said:

Trump's tariffs are great. Huge revenue and the American taxpayers haven't paid hardly any of it.

All this *****ing is silly.

But, we are about to hit some serious inflation. And it's due to removing about 30% of the workforce. Well worth it, IMO, but the inflation is about to hit the fan.


Nothing in the paragraph is correct.


Based on what, exactly? Some books somewhere?

Let's start with the 30% of the workforce being removed. The US workforce is about 170mm. So how do you think we are losing about 51mm? Do you really think there are that many illegals working in the US? That is a number way above anything Trump and the admin has stated.

As we proved during COVID, it's the lower paid workers that had the massive increase. Minimum wage went from around $7.50 to what was now is basically $10. The blue collar workers also increased substantially. Paying people to stay at home effectively is the same as removing workers from the workforce.

It's not the entire workforce that will drive inflation.

What does this have to do with the fact that you are claiming inflation is about to heat up due to over 50mm leaving the work force which is flat out unrealistic unless we get a depression in which case inflation won't be an issue?

Total US workforce has never been higher than it is today so if you are saying we have taken people out of the workforce due to covid payments doesn't mesh with reality.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV



Even if you look at LFPR, we are down 3/10ths of 1% since Trump took over. That's only about 700k jobs.

We should also see a corresponding reduction in demand at the discretionary level.
Science Denier
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Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Logos Stick said:

Science Denier said:

Trump's tariffs are great. Huge revenue and the American taxpayers haven't paid hardly any of it.

All this *****ing is silly.

But, we are about to hit some serious inflation. And it's due to removing about 30% of the workforce. Well worth it, IMO, but the inflation is about to hit the fan.


Nothing in the paragraph is correct.


Based on what, exactly? Some books somewhere?

Let's start with the 30% of the workforce being removed. The US workforce is about 170mm. So how do you think we are losing about 51mm? Do you really think there are that many illegals working in the US? That is a number way above anything Trump and the admin has stated.

As we proved during COVID, it's the lower paid workers that had the massive increase. Minimum wage went from around $7.50 to what was now is basically $10. The blue collar workers also increased substantially. Paying people to stay at home effectively is the same as removing workers from the workforce.

It's not the entire workforce that will drive inflation.

What does this have to do with the fact that you are claiming inflation is about to heat up due to over 50mm leaving the work force which is flat out unrealistic unless we get a depression in which case inflation won't be an issue?

Total US workforce has never been higher than it is today so if you are saying we have taken people out of the workforce due to covid payments doesn't mesh with reality.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV

I'm claiming inflation is going to heat up due to 30% of the workforce being deported. I then explained what I meant by that. I never used any numbers, though the number of illegals being removed could get to 30 million, though, if Trump is successful.

That will drive the minimum wages up tremendously, just like we saw during COVID.

As an example, McDonalds could pay $8 for an entry level worker. After COVID, they have to pay $12 or more. After deportations, that number will climb to over $15. That goes for almost every good that is sold here in the US, just like it was during COVID.

COVID was the real world example of inflation due to severe limits to the work force. That will happen again with these deportations.
LOL OLD
Logos Stick
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Science Denier said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Logos Stick said:

Science Denier said:

Trump's tariffs are great. Huge revenue and the American taxpayers haven't paid hardly any of it.

All this *****ing is silly.

But, we are about to hit some serious inflation. And it's due to removing about 30% of the workforce. Well worth it, IMO, but the inflation is about to hit the fan.


Nothing in the paragraph is correct.


Based on what, exactly? Some books somewhere?

Let's start with the 30% of the workforce being removed. The US workforce is about 170mm. So how do you think we are losing about 51mm? Do you really think there are that many illegals working in the US? That is a number way above anything Trump and the admin has stated.

As we proved during COVID, it's the lower paid workers that had the massive increase. Minimum wage went from around $7.50 to what was now is basically $10. The blue collar workers also increased substantially. Paying people to stay at home effectively is the same as removing workers from the workforce.

It's not the entire workforce that will drive inflation.

What does this have to do with the fact that you are claiming inflation is about to heat up due to over 50mm leaving the work force which is flat out unrealistic unless we get a depression in which case inflation won't be an issue?

Total US workforce has never been higher than it is today so if you are saying we have taken people out of the workforce due to covid payments doesn't mesh with reality.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV

I'm claiming inflation is going to heat up due to 30% of the workforce being deported. I then explained what I meant by that. I never used any numbers, though the number of illegals being removed could get to 30 million, though, if Trump is successful.

That will drive the minimum wages up tremendously, just like we saw during COVID.

As an example, McDonalds could pay $8 for an entry level worker. After COVID, they have to pay $12 or more. After deportations, that number will climb to over $15. That goes for almost every good that is sold here in the US, just like it was during COVID.

COVID was the real world example of inflation due to severe limits to the work force. That will happen again with these deportations.


With COVID, money supply went up. The bodies that were working still existed and were consuming despite no longer producing. If deportations were to occur like you claim, which is incorrect, that is 30 million fewer consumers, a 30% reduction you are claiming. You forgot about that part of the equation. And we don't have 30 million illegals working with fake SS numbers at McDs or anywhere else for that matter.
zephyr88
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Apollo79 said:

Entitlements need to cut but we all know that won't happen.

The word "ENTITLEMENT" make me cringe.
No Spin Ag
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zephyr88 said:

Apollo79 said:

Entitlements need to cut but we all know that won't happen.

The word "ENTITLEMENT" make me cringe.



Right up there with the word SUBSIDIES.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
infinity ag
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Kansas Kid said:

infinity ag said:

but but but tariffs will ruin the economy and we won't be "free markets" anymore

</fake TA "conservatives" who actually only care about their IRAs>

That said, we do need spending cuts. Badly. Live within your means. Get rid of debt at a personal level to begin with.

- debt free since 2018

If the economy is doing so great, why do we need to cut interest rates?

I'm not blaming tariffs or Trump although the chaotic nature of the tariff implementation has added to the issues, our biggest economic issue is inefficient public debt and spending squeezing out the productive private sector. Until we get government spending under control, our economy will not thrive (3%+ sustained real GDP growth)


Who says the eco is doing great? It is terrible. Job market is terrible. We are overrun by foreigners.

Tariffs are an attempt to fix it but will take time. H1B EO was a let down but I am hopeful it is a teaser for some real badass laws.

Our jobs for our kids.

Fully on board with you about cutting spending.
LOYAL AG
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Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Logos Stick said:

Science Denier said:

Trump's tariffs are great. Huge revenue and the American taxpayers haven't paid hardly any of it.

All this *****ing is silly.

But, we are about to hit some serious inflation. And it's due to removing about 30% of the workforce. Well worth it, IMO, but the inflation is about to hit the fan.


Nothing in the paragraph is correct.


Based on what, exactly? Some books somewhere?

Let's start with the 30% of the workforce being removed. The US workforce is about 170mm. So how do you think we are losing about 51mm? Do you really think there are that many illegals working in the US? That is a number way above anything Trump and the admin has stated.

As we proved during COVID, it's the lower paid workers that had the massive increase. Minimum wage went from around $7.50 to what was now is basically $10. The blue collar workers also increased substantially. Paying people to stay at home effectively is the same as removing workers from the workforce.

It's not the entire workforce that will drive inflation.

What does this have to do with the fact that you are claiming inflation is about to heat up due to over 50mm leaving the work force which is flat out unrealistic unless we get a depression in which case inflation won't be an issue?

Total US workforce has never been higher than it is today so if you are saying we have taken people out of the workforce due to covid payments doesn't mesh with reality.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV


The workforce is going to shrink every year until the boomers are all retired. Z is considerably smaller than the boomers so as boomers exit and Z enters the math is bad for the total size of the workforce which has to mean higher wages as employers compete for talent. The one caveat to that is the impact of AI and right now it's just too early to know. I think the run of AI driven layoffs is premature, almost corporate FOMO if you will but I don't that we're there yet with AI having a permanent impact. Layer in whatever deportations we see and that's going to increase the strain.
PaulsBunions
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Notice the usual big spending R's on the Nay side
Logos Stick
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LOYAL AG said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Logos Stick said:

Science Denier said:

Trump's tariffs are great. Huge revenue and the American taxpayers haven't paid hardly any of it.

All this *****ing is silly.

But, we are about to hit some serious inflation. And it's due to removing about 30% of the workforce. Well worth it, IMO, but the inflation is about to hit the fan.


Nothing in the paragraph is correct.


Based on what, exactly? Some books somewhere?

Let's start with the 30% of the workforce being removed. The US workforce is about 170mm. So how do you think we are losing about 51mm? Do you really think there are that many illegals working in the US? That is a number way above anything Trump and the admin has stated.

As we proved during COVID, it's the lower paid workers that had the massive increase. Minimum wage went from around $7.50 to what was now is basically $10. The blue collar workers also increased substantially. Paying people to stay at home effectively is the same as removing workers from the workforce.

It's not the entire workforce that will drive inflation.

What does this have to do with the fact that you are claiming inflation is about to heat up due to over 50mm leaving the work force which is flat out unrealistic unless we get a depression in which case inflation won't be an issue?

Total US workforce has never been higher than it is today so if you are saying we have taken people out of the workforce due to covid payments doesn't mesh with reality.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV


The workforce is going to shrink every year until the boomers are all retired. Z is considerably smaller than the boomers so as boomers exit and Z enters the math is bad for the total size of the workforce which has to mean higher wages as employers compete for talent. The one caveat to that is the impact of AI and right now it's just too early to know. I think the run of AI driven layoffs is premature, almost corporate FOMO if you will but I don't that we're there yet with AI having a permanent impact. Layer in whatever deportations we see and that's going to increase the strain.


I don't think the transition will be as bad as projected. A large chunk of those boomers will work until they die or until they encounter a serious medical issue. They simply don't have the means to do otherwise if you believe the median liquid asset stats by age. That gives us more time. Most of the ones doing hard, physical labor have already been replaced at this point. They are either retired, in supervisor roles or are pushing paper.
B-1 83
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PaulsBunions said:



Notice the usual big spending R's on the Nay side

Cronyn is up for re-election, knew this wouldn't pass, so he voted "Yea"
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Logos Stick
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Yep. Nailed it.
LOYAL AG
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Logos Stick said:

LOYAL AG said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Kansas Kid said:

Science Denier said:

Logos Stick said:

Science Denier said:

Trump's tariffs are great. Huge revenue and the American taxpayers haven't paid hardly any of it.

All this *****ing is silly.

But, we are about to hit some serious inflation. And it's due to removing about 30% of the workforce. Well worth it, IMO, but the inflation is about to hit the fan.


Nothing in the paragraph is correct.


Based on what, exactly? Some books somewhere?

Let's start with the 30% of the workforce being removed. The US workforce is about 170mm. So how do you think we are losing about 51mm? Do you really think there are that many illegals working in the US? That is a number way above anything Trump and the admin has stated.

As we proved during COVID, it's the lower paid workers that had the massive increase. Minimum wage went from around $7.50 to what was now is basically $10. The blue collar workers also increased substantially. Paying people to stay at home effectively is the same as removing workers from the workforce.

It's not the entire workforce that will drive inflation.

What does this have to do with the fact that you are claiming inflation is about to heat up due to over 50mm leaving the work force which is flat out unrealistic unless we get a depression in which case inflation won't be an issue?

Total US workforce has never been higher than it is today so if you are saying we have taken people out of the workforce due to covid payments doesn't mesh with reality.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV


The workforce is going to shrink every year until the boomers are all retired. Z is considerably smaller than the boomers so as boomers exit and Z enters the math is bad for the total size of the workforce which has to mean higher wages as employers compete for talent. The one caveat to that is the impact of AI and right now it's just too early to know. I think the run of AI driven layoffs is premature, almost corporate FOMO if you will but I don't that we're there yet with AI having a permanent impact. Layer in whatever deportations we see and that's going to increase the strain.


I don't think the transition will be as bad as projected. A large chunk of those boomers will work until they die or until they encounter a serious medical issue. They simply don't have the means to do otherwise if you believe the median liquid asset stats by age. That gives us more time. Most of the ones doing hard, physical labor have already been replaced at this point. They are either retired, in supervisor roles or are pushing paper.


You may be right. That wouldn't be a bad outcome from a macro perspective.
Kansas Kid
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That is a lot different issue than what science denier was implying/stating. He is saying we are going to have a 30% reduction in workforce due to illegals being deported. That is impossible because that would be over 50mm workers which is more than double the highest number of illegal workers I have seen from any source including Trump. The max illegals in the country you can find is an estimate of 30mm and we know a lot of them don't work.
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