More bad news for college grads

14,774 Views | 163 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by YouBet
BlueSmoke
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Your degree matters more than ever now. It's a critical component of your development. With a college sophomore and a HS senior, neither have the luxury of "finding themselves" in school. The oldest is in the biz school, ROTC, and is joining The Guard. He'll graduate with little to no debt

The younger one is going to a smaller school to play sports and has a tremendously high gpa. She will have some debt, but not a crippling amount. She's going the medical route and I really, really hope she goes into veterinary care.

We've been having these talks with them for years now. Talks I never had. You have to be dialed in earlier. Your degree matters. And yes, debt can alter your whole life trajectory if you let it. There will always be opportunities, but they aren't just handed out. People are also so critical. Learning to talk to people. Network. Communication. Some things never change and it's more important than ever.
Nobody cares. Work Harder
ts5641
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We need a course correction. It's pretty dire out there for young families trying to purchase homes and just survive in this world.
Catag94
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RikkiTikkaTagem said:

cmag said:

I can't imagine coming out of college into the workforce today. All these kids are going to be competing against AI. I'm glad I'm on the back hill slide of my career, and trying to figure out wtf to steer my kids towards before they hit college age. Terrified for them.


Frankly, don't see how college is a good investment anymore.


Indeed! The value is dropping yet the sixth is increasing.

Working to pay mine and my then wife's way through TAMU, I got really close to quitting thinking that school was causing me to rack up debt and keeping me from just earning more income. A little voice kept telling me that was not good logic and finishing was worth it. Today, I'm not so sure I'd convince myself.
rynning
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Buck Turgidson said:

Im sure somehow this is all the boomers fault in the minds of certain whiny *****es on Texags.

In the meantime, i have three in high school trying to figure out what career paths are going to thrive in the future. One is interested in construction science and i feel like thats pretty safe given that Houston is projected to double in size over his remaining lifespan. I have another interested in computer science and i am uneasy about that. I keep reading about a glut of CS grads. My youngest would make a good lawyer but I fear the legal profession is going to shrink.
I received a computer science degree from A&M, and little (but not all) of what I learned was useless 20 years later. The world had changed.

This year, my son's friend is graduating with a computer science degree, and while I'm not saying what he learned is useless, things have changed dramatically just since he started due to AI.

It takes about two years to make curriculum changes at A&M, so I don't know how it will keep up. He may want to look at nimbler learning platforms like Coursera and edX.
YouBet
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My company is a statistic in that article. We are no longer hiring any tech/product/analyst people. Our CTO is all aboard the junior coders are an extinct species path. We will use AI as our junior coders and then Seniors will finish it out. On one hand, it's hard to argue against this in the short-term; on the other hand, you are cutting off the pipeline for anyone ever becoming a senior in the first place. I've told him this but he's hell bent on AI is going to solve everything. Whatever. I'm going to retire in 3 years or less so no longer care and I'm tired of arguing with him.

And then outsourcing makes me insane. I've lived that b.s. and it's fake news. We are right back to 15-20 years ago where outsourcing to India was the panacea for the corporate bottom line. My former corporate company did that...and the cost savings are not there after you factor having to do the same work multiple times because the quality and customer service is so poor. And then importing a chunk of them to HQ so you then have an entirely separate insular culture in the building ruins HQ. We ultimately reversed course and started bringing things back in-house.

But now, I just heard from friends who are still there that they have reversed course again and are going to outsource all of IT back to India a second time. It seems the outsourcing trend is in high gear all over again.
TexAgs91
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I saw this coming... Entry level tech positions would start becoming scarce because of AI. So how do these new grads become experienced tech workers? There will be a shortage of experienced tech workers in the future and AI will have to take over those jobs as well.
No, I don't care what CNN or MSNBC said this time
Ad Lunam
MaxPower
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Over_ed said:

Job postings for entry-level roles requiring degrees have dropped nearly two-thirds in the UK and 43% in the US since ChatGPT launched in 2022. Including everything (not just programming, etc.)

Paywalled - Financial Times. Sorry, could not find a more "open" link.
https://www.ft.com/content/99b6acb7-a079-4f57-a7bd-8317c1fbb728

The research presumes it is a combination of AI, corrections for Covid-era excesses, increased offshoring, and reduced venture capital funding.

AI and offshoring both have increasing momentum.

Vance seems to be getting it, sort of. Yesterday, he implied that Intel was playing dirty increasing offshoring while laying off 15%. https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-issues-warning-h1-b-visa-immigration-2103296

The bigger point is that there is no shortage of Amercan tech talent, and the whole rationale for H1B's has been destroyed for 99% of H1B positions.

More American kids and grandkids will not be starting their professional lives, not growing up, and not having their own kids.
Unfortunately this is just reality. Can't put the AI cat back in the bag. You can complain about offshoring but tech specifically is a globally competitive market. It's not like a plumber where i need someone physically on site. If your company doesn't offshore as much as possible then another tech company will (or said cheap labor country will startup their own tech company like China has done).

The only advice I can give college tech grads is you're going to have to think about your own startups. Find a problem, solve it and find a way to market that product and try to build a nest egg early. Even if Vance or Trump solve your problem, it will be temporary if you're looking for a 9 to 5. If you're choosing a degree then avoid tech. Look for something that requires physical interaction.

I was just telling my neighbor this is the first generation in awhile where parents can't really tell their kids how much tough it was when they were growing up. We are entering wild times.
austinAG90
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aggie93 said:

agsalaska said:

cmag said:

I can't imagine coming out of college into the workforce today. All these kids are going to be competing against AI. I'm glad I'm on the back hill slide of my career, and trying to figure out wtf to steer my kids towards before they hit college age. Terrified for them.

No way.

There is more money to be made than ever before. You just have to make an expectations adjustment. We used to go to college and work our way up the ranks. Hell my degree is in POLS and I have spent most of my career in retail management. You could get a degree in anything and just enter the workforce one step ahead. That's over. But tradesmen make a LOT more money today than ever before. I have a buddy that is an electrician. He has about 15 guys working for him and he has made millions. He makes more money than our CEO and shaves maybe once a week.

Plumber or electrician is where it's at. More specifically, blue collar with leadership skills.

The key is adjusting that is for sure. My eldest graduates from A&M Galveston next month and he did Maritime Transportation. He had to give up his Summers to do Sea Terms and his career will mean he's gone half the time. He's got multiple 6 figure offers he is deciding between and tremendous job security for the forseeable future. Unless AI gets to the point where ships are completely unmanned with no humans aboard he's going to do very well for a very long time. While he was in HS he also got welding certified and he has a lot of skills. He worked part time on charter fishing vessels as well on the weekends.

Other son graduated from HS and has a full ride to study Biomedical Engineering. He worked 2 Summers as an Auto Mechanic (started off sweeping the shop and doing any grunt job they could dream up). He learned how to operate just about any shop tool in robotics and landed an internship this Summer working for a Med Device company working on their CNC mill, routers, and laser cutters. He also makes some side money using his drone for construction companies helping them to survey sites.

There are tons of small business endeavors kids can get into (and I'm not even talking about all the easy money from social media and influencers). You just have to hustle and work. There is so much information out there that's easily available to people now as well about how to do just about anything. It's not on a sliver platter but the opportunities are there.

Problem is that the natural tendency of people is to look for easy buttons. They want to be able to study what they want, work when and where they want, not bother saving or investing, not take risks, and yet they want all the benefits of those who do those things. That's not new to this generation btw, the difference is the information age has made it easier to succeed and also easier to be lazy more than ever. If you follow the herd and don't take responsibility for your choices though it's not likely going to turn out well for you though. You can be a sheep or a wolf, it's just most people make that choice by default.


My son Graduated from Galveston as well and so glad he went there. Marine Administration and now works for PetroChina trading Nat Gas/LNG. Folks laugh at Galveston but graduates come out with many great jobs, and no liberal arts degrees working at Starbucks. Daughter was undergrad at CS and A&M Law. She has a great job in Houston. While I agree that many should do trade schools as we need that and I wish I had taken over my grandfather's Electrical Business at times, specific degrees do pay off. Niece graduated tu with a Sustainability Degree in May, she had to move back home because she couldn't find a job. I'm not sure what the heck that even is ????

malenurse
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Iowaggie said:

RikkiTikkaTagem said:

cmag said:

I can't imagine coming out of college into the workforce today. All these kids are going to be competing against AI. I'm glad I'm on the back hill slide of my career, and trying to figure out wtf to steer my kids towards before they hit college age. Terrified for them.


Frankly, don't see how college is a good investment anymore.


Just because a lot of stocks fail, doesn't mean the stock market is a bad investment.


Like selecting any investment, make smart choices.

Underrated post
The last thing I want to do is hurt you. But, it's still on the list.
Logos Stick
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I would look at becoming an NP or a physicians assistant. A lot less time, money and rigor than becoming a full MD.

Those positions with the assistance of AI will replace doctors in the future imo.
YouBet
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Logos Stick said:

I would look at becoming an NP or a physicians assistant. A lot less time, money and rigor than becoming a full MD.

Those positions with the assistance of AI will replace doctors in the future imo.

Agreed. Already happening in the primary care space now that that field is mostly running blood tests, prescribing drugs, and referring to others. Right or wrong. Fair or not.
Oyster DuPree
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Buck Turgidson said:

In the meantime, i have three in high school trying to figure out what career paths are going to thrive in the future. One is interested in construction science and i feel like thats pretty safe given that Houston is projected to double in size over his remaining lifespan. I have another interested in computer science and i am uneasy about that. I keep reading about a glut of CS grads. My youngest would make a good lawyer but I fear the legal profession is going to shrink.

No one cares
infinity ag
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cmag said:

I can't imagine coming out of college into the workforce today. All these kids are going to be competing against AI. I'm glad I'm on the back hill slide of my career, and trying to figure out wtf to steer my kids towards before they hit college age. Terrified for them.


AI taking over jobs has not started yet in a way that matters. CEOs are just lying because it gives them an excuse to lay people off.

The problem right now is offshoring. Trump needs to tariff offshored jobs. It is no different from him tariffing goods.

The problems is that Americans are selfish and stupid and want easy solutions and think short term in terms of "why is my steak costing me 20% more??? GRRRR". They don't realize that it is better to pay 20% more for a piece of meat than lose 100% of your job and your kid's futures.
aezmvp
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Part of the outsourcing / AI thing is that scaling up to compete with PE requires... alternate PE. And people are just getting swallowed whole in groups that are consolidating industries like crazy. It's incredibly difficult for smaller or mid size companies to compete in that environment. And because everyone is either public or looking to take their company public you get this really nasty synergy with finding the cheapest cuts possible.
infinity ag
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Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:

Offshoring is a huge issue, often overlooked for American workers.


Americans are naive and foolish about outsourcing. They fool themselves and call it "free markets at play". You must realize that this is a new virus that has infected America and not like earlier models where "things will come to equilibrium". What we have going on is a leveling of all countries and eventually come to a "world average". This means that India and China go from 3rd world to 2nd world and we (the US) go from 1st world to 2nd world.

It is a loss to us. A gain for everyone else. Euros and Canadians are also screwed like we are.
Logos Stick
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infinity ag said:

cmag said:

I can't imagine coming out of college into the workforce today. All these kids are going to be competing against AI. I'm glad I'm on the back hill slide of my career, and trying to figure out wtf to steer my kids towards before they hit college age. Terrified for them.


AI taking over jobs has not started yet in a way that matters. CEOs are just lying because it gives them an excuse to lay people off.

The problem right now is offshoring. Trump needs to tariff offshored jobs. It is no different from him tariffing goods.


Offshoring has been going on in IT since the year 2000. CEOs have been outsourcing and offshoring for 25+ years!

And you would have us believe that it's accelerating now - for reasons unknown - and being covered up using AI as the excuse. There is no basis for that claim.
texagbeliever
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bmks270 said:

Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:

Offshoring is a huge issue, often overlooked for American workers.


Return to office policies and simultaneously offshoring.

This is what sets me off. Make the Americans commute into the office so they can hop on a call with someone in India. The goal of return to office is pretty obvious... RIF through voluntary methods.
AgDad121619
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Enviroag02 said:

Had lunch with a consultant the other day and they were really pushing their team in India as cheaper and harder working. They said having a team in India allows them to undercut every other consultant in the space. It kinda turned me off to be honest.
prob Deloitte?
infinity ag
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Logos Stick said:

infinity ag said:

cmag said:

I can't imagine coming out of college into the workforce today. All these kids are going to be competing against AI. I'm glad I'm on the back hill slide of my career, and trying to figure out wtf to steer my kids towards before they hit college age. Terrified for them.


AI taking over jobs has not started yet in a way that matters. CEOs are just lying because it gives them an excuse to lay people off.

The problem right now is offshoring. Trump needs to tariff offshored jobs. It is no different from him tariffing goods.


Offshoring has been going on in IT since the year 2000. CEOs have been outsourcing and offshoring for 25+ years!

And you would have us believe that it's accelerating now - for reasons unknown - and being covered up using AI as the excuse. There is no basis for that claim.


Yes.
I have been in the industry since slightly before 2000 so I saw it all. It has accelerated now and Indian cos know all the loopholes to exploit the system and the Government just watches or is clueless.

No AI damage yet, just some stuff here and there. But CEOs use it to make big claims as they have to pump up their stock.

Wisen up man. Don't trust/believe blindly.
infinity ag
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texagbeliever said:

bmks270 said:

Kyle Field Shade Chaser said:

Offshoring is a huge issue, often overlooked for American workers.


Return to office policies and simultaneously offshoring.

This is what sets me off. Make the Americans commute into the office so they can hop on a call with someone in India. The goal of return to office is pretty obvious... RIF through voluntary methods.


I did that in my previous co. Commute 1 hour to get to the office. Then talk to my boss in Ohio and others all over the country and some in India. I never had to talk to anyone I worked with other than on Zoom. Finding a room was such a hassle. Morons.
Dan Scott
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Tariffs are a hard way to create Americans jobs. We need to take away the financial incentive of outsourcing.

There's no such thing as a free market. The system is rigged and people are regular Americans are fighting each other while the big boys are fleecing the country.
infinity ag
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Enviroag02 said:

Had lunch with a consultant the other day and they were really pushing their team in India as cheaper and harder working. They said having a team in India allows them to undercut every other consultant in the space. It kinda turned me off to be honest.


They push a team of 20 Indian "engineers" (most of them have fake resumes) and of which 10 are "shadow resources" who do no work. They just listen and watch and learn. They train themselves AT THE CLIENT'S EXPENSE. Foolish American clients managers tell their management and boards that they are getting more for less. Eventually this scam catches up with the company leading to its downfall like Intel and Boeing. By that time the Board and CEO would have flown the coop.
Waffledynamics
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Dan Scott said:

Tariffs are a hard way to create Americans jobs. We need to take away the financial incentive of outsourcing.

There's no such thing as a free market. The system is rigged and people are regular Americans are fighting each other while the big boys are fleecing the country.


If our lousy government cared, they would start taxing the crap out of companies that outsource jobs. Take away the financial benefit.

It's a rare case where I think taxes would be good.
infinity ag
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Waffledynamics said:

Dan Scott said:

Tariffs are a hard way to create Americans jobs. We need to take away the financial incentive of outsourcing.

There's no such thing as a free market. The system is rigged and people are regular Americans are fighting each other while the big boys are fleecing the country.


If our lousy government cared, they would start taxing the crap out of companies that outsource jobs. Take away the financial benefit.

It's a rare case where I think taxes would be good.


It is as simple as that.

Let's do it Trump!

He has started talking about it with a warning to Google and Microsoft. Let's see if they obey (they won't) and Trump will have to bring in a law to kick their slimy asses. It is the Govt's job to take care of the country and its citizens. Not to lick the boots of the corps which is what has happened for decades under both R and D. Both suck equally.
Pinochet
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AgDad121619 said:

Enviroag02 said:

Had lunch with a consultant the other day and they were really pushing their team in India as cheaper and harder working. They said having a team in India allows them to undercut every other consultant in the space. It kinda turned me off to be honest.
prob Deloitte?

You think they're the only one? Every consultant and accounting firm is pushing India. The smaller ones have even gone to models where they share Indian resources between firms so they can still take advantage of the supposed cost savings.

There are definitely roles that Indians do as good or better job, but you have to work to find those. Just like yelling that offshoring is the answer for everything is dumb, so is plugging your ears and saying that any offshoring is bad. The current generation of college grads I hire is not near as good as the group I hired 10 years ago. That's a fact. The newest group doesn't want to see clients in person or do tasks they believe are beneath them. The entry level workforce is not entirely without blame here.
infinity ag
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God, the naivete displayed about this issue by many is truly mind-boggling, and in fact, very sad.

It is like a family having a picnic on railway tracks thinking it is abandoned, but there's a train fast approaching. The American way of life is fast being disrupted and people prefer to stick their heads in the sand thinking "we are America" and that the problem will go away by itself.




aggie93
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infinity ag said:

Enviroag02 said:

Had lunch with a consultant the other day and they were really pushing their team in India as cheaper and harder working. They said having a team in India allows them to undercut every other consultant in the space. It kinda turned me off to be honest.


They push a team of 20 Indian "engineers" (most of them have fake resumes) and of which 10 are "shadow resources" who do no work. They just listen and watch and learn. They train themselves AT THE CLIENT'S EXPENSE. Foolish American clients managers tell their management and boards that they are getting more for less. Eventually this scam catches up with the company leading to its downfall like Intel and Boeing. By that time the Board and CEO would have flown the coop.

Besides the consulting firms (Cognizant, Tata, etc.) the worst abusers are banks and financial institutions. They hire volumes of H-1s who aren't anything special. These aren't the top talent guys, these are absolutely jobs that can be done by Americans and they are hiring them to save money.

Tech companies are more obsessed with the best talent and they are paying top dollar regardless of visa.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
Tom Fox
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infinity ag said:

God, the naivete displayed about this issue by many is truly mind-boggling, and in fact, very sad.

It is like a family having a picnic on railway tracks thinking it is abandoned, but there's a train fast approaching. The American way of life is fast being disrupted and people prefer to stick their heads in the sand thinking "we are America" and that the problem will go away by itself.







I think I'm fine with protectionist policies for us jobs even if it goes against my natural instincts for free markets.

But if we do that, it must be coupled with strict immigration laws combined with largely eliminating entitlements. If we raise prices to onshore employment, employers do not need to be competing against government handouts. Then when entitlements are cut, reduce income taxes correspondingly.
Athanasius
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Sid Farkas said:

agwrestler said:

Or could it be they have a metric ****ton of Muslim immigrants soaking up those jobs?

yeah...I'm thinking AI is just a correlation.

I am telling you right now, it is one of the causes.

Tech companies aren't hiring entry levels anymore, if they have AI tooling.
sharpdressedman
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YouBet said:

My company is a statistic in that article. We are no longer hiring any tech/product/analyst people. Our CTO is all aboard the junior coders are an extinct species path. We will use AI as our junior coders and then Seniors will finish it out. On one hand, it's hard to argue against this in the short-term; on the other hand, you are cutting off the pipeline for anyone ever becoming a senior in the first place. I've told him this but he's hell bent on AI is going to solve everything. Whatever. I'm going to retire in 3 years or less so no longer care and I'm tired of arguing with him.

And then outsourcing makes me insane. I've lived that b.s. and it's fake news. We are right back to 15-20 years ago where outsourcing to India was the panacea for the corporate bottom line. My former corporate company did that...and the cost savings are not there after you factor having to do the same work multiple times because the quality and customer service is so poor. And then importing a chunk of them to HQ so you then have an entirely separate insular culture in the building ruins HQ. We ultimately reversed course and started bringing things back in-house.

But now, I just heard from friends who are still there that they have reversed course again and are going to outsource all of IT back to India a second time. It seems the outsourcing trend is in high gear all over again.

It sounds like you are employed by USAA.
BigRobSA
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Logos Stick said:

infinity ag said:

cmag said:

I can't imagine coming out of college into the workforce today. All these kids are going to be competing against AI. I'm glad I'm on the back hill slide of my career, and trying to figure out wtf to steer my kids towards before they hit college age. Terrified for them.


AI taking over jobs has not started yet in a way that matters. CEOs are just lying because it gives them an excuse to lay people off.

The problem right now is offshoring. Trump needs to tariff offshored jobs. It is no different from him tariffing goods.


Offshoring has been going on in IT since the year 2000. CEOs have been outsourcing and offshoring for 25+ years!

And you would have us believe that it's accelerating now - for reasons unknown - and being covered up using AI as the excuse. There is no basis for that claim.

Even prior to that, for Y2K purposes.

But, yeah, not a new debacle. I was in IT for about 19 yrs with a major telco and another yr with a major health insco.

And Indians SUUUUUUUUCK at IT.

I'd hire an American acctg major to do IT before I'd hire a PhD-holding Indian IT grad. All day, e'ry day. Totally different cultural productivity.
Pizza
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Saxsoon said:

I am seeing this at my company. We have one of the more robust AI offerings for a non traditional tech company that is is tech adjacent. I worry about the long term impacts of having a senior tech guy just monitoring the work of AI that used to be done by junior coders. I worry we are chasing short term gains that will eventually lead to a hollowing out of the knowledge base.

And when it isn't AI, it is India. Doubled India employees in the year I have been there.
infinity ag
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Athanasius said:

Sid Farkas said:

agwrestler said:

Or could it be they have a metric ****ton of Muslim immigrants soaking up those jobs?

yeah...I'm thinking AI is just a correlation.

I am telling you right now, it is one of the causes.

Tech companies aren't hiring entry levels anymore, if they have AI tooling.


Yes, but not because of AI. It's because they shipped it to India. Wake up.
samurai_science
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samurai_science
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By the numbers

- 134,153 U.S./green-card CS graduates in 2023
- 110,098 work permits handed to foreign tech workers
- 82 % of our own grads locked out before they walk the stage
 
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