What do you think Iran's nuclear breakout time is now?

5,503 Views | 80 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by David_Puddy
Teslag
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rgvag11 said:


LOL.

Iran is heavily tied to China and Russia. China buys almost all their oil.

And china and russia left them out to dry when the **** hit the fan. They found out they have no friends.
Teslag
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I'm curious to what you're even arguing. North Korea is a nuclear power. Nuclear power's have different rules. That's why we have to be delicate in Ukraine. And it's precisely the reason why you keep a nation from acquiring them. The rules change once they do.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

The Islamic Republic's nuke chief is already vowing to rebuild the rogue nation's nuclear capacity. On Tuesday, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson appeared on "Fox & Friends" and denounced the plan as "madness."
He's right.
Quote:

Iran's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami said earlier today that the Islamic Republic is surveying damage to its nuclear industry and preparations are underway for its restoration, Reuters reported, citing the Iranian Mehr news agency.

"The plan is to prevent interruptions in the process of production and services," Eslami was quoted as saying.

"It's madness," Johnson later told Fox News when asked about the report. "We are under no illusion that you can just kill all their nuclear ambition overnight, but I think reality has set in over there. We have decimated the upper echelon of their military command as well as their nuclear scientists. There is not much left for them to rebuild upon.

"But the idea that they would put out a statement like at this fragile moment is very frustrating. It goes to show you why Iran has always been an irrational actor," Johnson added. "They are not to be trusted. But we have got to use force, this is what peace through strength really means. You have to forge the peace through the exercise of strength."

LINK
rgvag11
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LOL. Did you forget? We were talking about WWIII.

Dude, if anything, this taught everyone in the world that has nuclear ambitions to take them to completion and not stall to play 'the breakout game.'

Teslag
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rgvag11 said:

LOL. Did you forget? We were talking about WWIII.

Dude, if anything, this taught everyone in the world that has nuclear ambitions to take them to completion and not stall to play 'the breakout game.'




This taught anyone with nuclear ambitions that we won't allow it and have the means to enforce with little effort and no loss of life.
rgvag11
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Sure it did.


LOL
Teslag
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rgvag11 said:

Sure it did.


LOL


Do you have proof it didn't? Because I have proof that ***** footing around with negotiation, payoffs, etc didn't do jack *****

But seven B2's did. The simple way to quell nuclear ambition is to destroy it every time. These are programs that don't just pop up out of nowhere. They can't be hidden either. When they begin you destroy them and move on and it's never an issue.
rgvag11
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It's like the last 30 years don't exist in your reality.
Teslag
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rgvag11 said:

It's like the last 30 years don't exist in your reality.


The last 30 years where they kept their program in their back pocket, ready to continue any time they didn't like something or get what they wanted?

If we'd done this 30 years ago we aren't talking about this today
WC94
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Iran can't have nukes, but it's not Jerusalem they want to blow up.

Muslims believe Prophet Muhammad ascended to heaven from the Temple Mount during the Night Journey.

Jerusalem, also known as Al-Quds, is revered as a holy city by Muslims.

They would get obliterated by their own if The Al-Aqsa Mosque was touched, let alone destroyed.
rgvag11
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LOL

The reality is our actions have increase sympathy for Iran and makes it more likely that Iran will go full enrichment and weaponization, on their own, but likely with help.

Like someone already pointed out, they may shop around for one, and now they are more likely to get it.
Teslag
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Quote:

The reality is our actions have increase sympathy for Iran


Lol. With who? Everyone in the region is glad we took that facility out. No one wants a nuclear Iran.

Quote:

and makes it more likely that Iran will go full enrichment and weaponization


With what? You are apparently completely ignorant as to what it takes to enrich and weaponize uranium. We completely destroyed everything they needed to do this. Even the missing uranium hexaflouride is largely useless to them at this point. It's not something that can be done in secret in this day and age.
Cinco Ranch Aggie
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rgvag11 said:

LOL

The reality is our actions have increase sympathy for Iran and makes it more likely that Iran will go full enrichment and weaponization, on their own, but likely with help.

Like someone already pointed out, they may shop around for one, and now they are more likely to get it.
From who? Their neighbors already hate them. Iraq and Iran fought a war for an entire freaking decade in our life times. Saudi doesn't want anything to do with them. They are not getting sympathy from anyone.
samurai_science
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rgvag11 said:

LOL

The reality is our actions have increase sympathy for Iran and makes it more likely that Iran will go full enrichment and weaponization, on their own, but likely with help.




Wrong
flown-the-coop
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Teslag said:

Quote:

The reality is our actions have increase sympathy for Iran


Lol. With who? Everyone in the region is glad we took that facility out. No one wants a nuclear Iran.



Correct, nearly all regions / countries have supported the attacks and condemned Iran.

But there are 81 million ballots in America that thinks this is war mongering, that the JCPOA was the only thing that would stop Iran building a nuke, diplomacy always works, and that Trump is still Putin's Puppet and Xi's lapdog.

In order to reconcile these thoughts, they have to make statements representing their feelz. But rest assured, the only ones with increased sympathies for Iran are the TDSers who now congregate over hating Mean Ol Orange Man.
fc2112
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rgvag11 said:

The reality is our actions have increase sympathy for Iran...
Cinco Ranch Aggie
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These Israel - Iran threads have sure provided a lot of comedy from the self-ownage by TDS'ers and libs.
whatthehey78
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DJT's reply...
Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte
esteban
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We set back their nuclear program, but we didn't destroy it, because that wasn't the goal. We did enough to set them back a few years and make the nuclear issue less imminent while allowing everyone to de-escalate. It won't take 30 years to rebuild what we destroyed. If Iran is as committed to this project as Israel claims, then it won't take long. Maybe five years. Maybe one. Now would be a good time to hammer out a deal.

samurai_science
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esteban said:

We set back their nuclear program, but we didn't destroy it, because that wasn't the goal. We did enough to set them back a few years and make the nuclear issue less imminent while allowing everyone to de-escalate. It won't take 30 years to rebuild what we destroyed. If Iran is as committed to this project as Israel claims, then it won't take long. Maybe five years. Maybe one. Now would be a good time to hammer out a deal.


Like Bill Clinton did with North Korea. That will work this time....lol

Teslag
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esteban said:

We set back their nuclear program, but we didn't destroy it, because that wasn't the goal. We did enough to set them back a few years and make the nuclear issue less imminent while allowing everyone to de-escalate. It won't take 30 years to rebuild what we destroyed. If Iran is as committed to this project as Israel claims, then it won't take long. Maybe five years. Maybe one. Now would be a good time to hammer out a deal.



No. You keep destroying whatever they rebuild. It's cheap and more effective.
Windy City Ag
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Quote:

We set back their nuclear program, but we didn't destroy it, because that wasn't the goal. We did enough to set them back a few years and make the nuclear issue less imminent while allowing everyone to de-escalate. It won't take 30 years to rebuild what we destroyed. If Iran is as committed to this project as Israel claims, then it won't take long. Maybe five years. Maybe one. Now would be a good time to hammer out a deal.

Some of the leaking military assessments this afternoon (via CNN and NYT so take it with a grain of salt) say the strikes did not set back Iran as much as the initial claims. They seem preliminary though so who knows.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

Quote:


The US military strikes on three of Iran's nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country's nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US intelligence assessment that was described by four people briefed on it.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.

The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran's nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available. But the early findings are at odds with President Donald Trump's repeated claims that the strikes "completely and totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also said on Sunday that Iran's nuclear ambitions "have been obliterated."

Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges are largely "intact."

"So the (DIA) assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops," this person added.
The White House acknowledged the existence of the assessment but said they disagreed with it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html

Quote:

A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of Iran's nuclear sites sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, according to officials familiar with the findings.

The early findings conclude that the strikes over the weekend set back Iran's nuclear program by only a few months, the officials said.

Before the attack, U.S. intelligence agencies had said that if Iran tried to rush to making a bomb, it would take about three months. After the U.S. bombing run and days of attacks by the Israeli Air Force, the report by the Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that the program was delayed less than six months.

Former officials said that any rushed effort by Iran to get a bomb would be to develop a relatively small and crude device. A miniaturized warhead would be far more difficult to produce, and it is not clear how much damage to that more advanced research has taken place.

The report also said much of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, which destroyed little of the nuclear material. Some of that may have been moved to secret nuclear sites maintained by Iran.

Some Israeli officials said they also believe that Iran has maintained small covert enrichment facilities that were built so the Iranian government could continue its nuclear program in the event of an attack on the larger facilities.

Officials cautioned that the five-page classified report is only an initial assessment, and others will follow as more information is collected and as Iran examines the three sites at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. One official said that the reports people in the administration had been shown were "mixed" but that more assessments were yet to be done.

But the Defense Intelligence Agency report indicates that the sites were not damaged as much as some administration officials had hoped, and that Iran retains control of almost all of its nuclear material, meaning if it decides to make a nuclear weapon it might still be able to do so relatively quickly.




rgvag11
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fc2112 said:

rgvag11 said:

The reality is our actions have increase sympathy for Iran...

Russia has sympathy


China's economic ties to Iran will continue shielding the Iranian regime from the full impact of international sanctions, allowing Iran to continue its nuclear program. China helped develop Iran's enrichment program.

Pakistan provided Iran with centrifuge components and technology.

All these countries condemned the U.S. attack and have supported Iran's nuclear program in the past. There is no reasonable reason to think they will stop.

IndividualFreedom
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Imma say this as the average American individual that I am..........

No boots on the ground. No *****ks Given.

We bomb them every 5 years and nobody cares.
flown-the-coop
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Oh there is a heck of a reason to think those countries will not follow through on their talk and their prior bad actions.

The reason is Donald John F-in Trump, your President.

Is he indicating he is just *****footing on the international stage to you? I imagine Pakistan, Russia and China are being told in no uncertain terms that assisting Iran in its nuclear weapons endeavor will be met with them being excluded from any trade with United States and its allies but in particular NATO.

Trump can tell NATO what the policy is for its members regarding dealing with sponsors of terrorism, which is what assisting Iran with nukes is.

And the reports by NYT and CNN are probably based on intel sources whose security clearances Trump revoked months ago.

If they are Pentagon leakers, their resume should be updated and they may even need a lawyer.
rgvag11
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Like I said, no reasonable reason to think Pakistan, Russia or China will stop helping Iran's nuclear program.
Cinco Ranch Aggie
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Sure there is, but you'll just put your fingers in your ears and pretend you didn't hear it for the umpteenth time.
Teslag
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rgvag11 said:

fc2112 said:

rgvag11 said:

The reality is our actions have increase sympathy for Iran...

Russia has sympathy


China's economic ties to Iran will continue shielding the Iranian regime from the full impact of international sanctions, allowing Iran to continue its nuclear program. China helped develop Iran's enrichment program.

Pakistan provided Iran with centrifuge components and technology.

All these countries condemned the U.S. attack and have supported Iran's nuclear program in the past. There is no reasonable reason to think they will stop.



Both china and russia were irritated that Iran ramped up enrichment to 60% after the IEAE report. No one wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

Teslag
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rgvag11 said:

Like I said, no reasonable reason to think Pakistan, Russia or China will stop helping Iran's nuclear program.

Except they already have. And Pakistan does not want a nuclear Iran. Probably even as much as Israel.
rgvag11
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LOL. Sure they were.
rgvag11
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They literally don't show it.
Teslag
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rgvag11 said:

LOL. Sure they were.

And the give up.
Teslag
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rgvag11 said:

They literally don't show it.

Except they did. They completely stood by and let them be attacked. The Iranians have zero friends.
David_Puddy
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Your source - "trust me bro"

I don't expect you to think logically, but you really think Russia & China just saw our deceptive precision strikes and wants to f with our military? Hell Russia is losing thousands of soldiers per week just fighting with Ukraine.
Teslag
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David_Puddy said:

Your source - "trust me bro"

I don't expect you to think logically, but you really think Russia & China just saw our deceptive precision strikes andreally wants to f with our military? Hell Russia is losing thousands of soldiers per week just fighting with Ukraine.

The dude was pissed when he though Iran lost their nuclear weapons program. Then he's absolutely giddy at any glimmer of hope they can get one.
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