jwhaby said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Inflation, by definition is a RISE in prices. We are seeing the growth rate of inflation decelerate, but it's probably never going to be negative. If it were to go negative, that would be deflation, and it would bring a host of new problems.

When people talk about inflation going down, it doesn't mean that prices are falling, it just means that prices are rising less quickly. Inflation is absolutely going down. That is a fact. Unfortunately, you won't be satisfied until we have deflation. There's a difference.

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I know exactly what inflation is. Who said anything about inflation being negative?!

The inflation rate is not going down. It's up over YoY to 2.4%; that's an increase from April at 2.3%. Does MoM mean anything? We saw MoM that last year when we hit 0% for two months and it then rose to 0.5% by Jan. We ended the year at 3% YoY.

Estimates are meaningless yet you mentioned them as if they mean something as far as what inflation is doing!

jwhaby said:

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In May of 2024, the CPI was 3.3%. In May of 2025 the CPI is 2.4%. Please tell me if CPI (inflation) increases or decreases over the past 12 months? I'll hang up and listen.

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LOL

OK, forget the YoY rise that just occurred. Lets cherry pick.

I can do that too: in Sep 2025, it was 2.4%. Now its 2.4%.

Logos Stick said:

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jwhaby said:

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In May of 2024, the CPI was 3.3%. In May of 2025 the CPI is 2.4%. Please tell me if CPI (inflation) increases or decreases over the past 12 months? I'll hang up and listen.

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LOL

OK, forget the YoY rise that just occurred. Lets cherry pick.

I can do that too: in Sep 2025, it was 2.4%. Now its 2.4%.

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We've had annual inflation north of 2.4% 12 times since 2000. This was a relatively good print.

Logos Stick said:

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Desert Ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Desert Ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Perhaps you misunderstand statistics. From the BLS release:

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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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Yes, the index increased by 0.1% from April, but the rate of inflation was actually down 0.1% from April.

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That's not the point he made. He said "it" - the OP - shows inflation is down and said "came in lower than estimates", which are not relevant. The OP didn't mention April's MoM. Yes, relative to April, the MoM increase is lower, but the YoY rate is higher. Should have said prices rose, which is true in both cases.

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Cleaned it up for you.

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Not really. YoY inflation rate is higher. Estimates are irrelevant. You got me on the MoM. Congrats I guess. HTH.

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Have you looked at the full series of CPI numbers for the prior year? There is no question we're moving in the right direction! We may not get a rate cut soon, but I like where we're headed.

Logos Stick said:

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jwhaby said:

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In May of 2024, the CPI was 3.3%. In May of 2025 the CPI is 2.4%. Please tell me if CPI (inflation) increases or decreases over the past 12 months? I'll hang up and listen.

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LOL

OK, forget the YoY rise that just occurred. Lets cherry pick.

I can do that too: in Sep 2025, it was 2.4%. Now its 2.4%.

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You realize that September of 2025 is in the future. If the TTM inflation at that date is greater than the TTM inflation as of September 2024, then you would be correct that inflation has increased. Unfortunately, we only have data through May of 2025, which shows that inflation has decreased relative to the same time a year ago. I hope that helps.

jwhaby said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Inflation, by definition is a RISE in prices. We are seeing the growth rate of inflation decelerate, but it's probably never going to be negative. If it were to go negative, that would be deflation, and it would bring a host of new problems.

When people talk about inflation going down, it doesn't mean that prices are falling, it just means that prices are rising less quickly. Inflation is absolutely going down. That is a fact. Unfortunately, you won't be satisfied until we have deflation. There's a difference.

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We need deflation. It's the only way out. It will hurt, but that's because the balloon is in space instead of hovering over the ground where it should be.

jwhaby said:

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Logos Stick said:

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jwhaby said:

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In May of 2024, the CPI was 3.3%. In May of 2025 the CPI is 2.4%. Please tell me if CPI (inflation) increases or decreases over the past 12 months? I'll hang up and listen.

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LOL

OK, forget the YoY rise that just occurred. Lets cherry pick.

I can do that too: in Sep 2025, it was 2.4%. Now its 2.4%.

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You realize that September of 2025 is in the future. If the TTM inflation at that date is greater than the TTM inflation as of September 2024, then you would be correct that inflation has increased. Unfortunately, we only have data through May of 2025, which shows that inflation has decreased relative to the same time a year ago. I hope that helps.

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LoL, sorry for the typo. I meant to type 2024 obviously!

See, I can cherry pick.

Inflation just ticked back up, contrary to what you believe. HTH.

You're talking about selective emphasis, but by choosing to focus on YoY inflation and ignoring the monthly figures what you're doing is emphasizing the differential between 12 months ago MoM inflation and last month's MoM inflation without consideration to why inflation was lower 12 months ago than 30 days ago.

It's why you were insistent that inflation was durably going to stay at 4% and it subsequently and rapidly collapsed to 3%, because you narrowly focus on the yearly figure. Inflation coming in below estimates and below target in the most recent month is a good thing.

2024 May price change was flat. Guess what? What happened this month is likely to happen next month and it will still signal stable to slowing inflation at target even though the yearly figure rises. Why? Because prices were flat in June 2024.

aTmAg said:

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There shouldn't be a rate reduction.

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At some point there needs to be.

ts5641 said:

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aTmAg said:

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There shouldn't be a rate reduction.

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At some point there needs to be.

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After inflation is at 0% (or lower) for a while. Not anytime soon.

I don't know what the answer to all of this is, but I do know that industry consolidation is an issue; and the larger entities in various sectors that are eating up market share on a daily basis can endure high interest rates that their smaller competitors can't...which could make the problem worse.

Your username is appropriate.

Please, tell me why THIS tax will be different, why companies will magically absorb 10-50% profit losses from taxation and bot pass it to consumers. Why American manufacturers that are not directly tarriff impacted arent also raising their prices simply because they can with foreign goods becoming more expensive.

I mean, its already happening, but id like to know how your fantasy land works, and is different from what even trump has admitted at this point.

Ag_of_08 said:

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Your username is appropriate.

Please, tell me why THIS tax will be different, why companies will magically absorb 10-50% profit losses from taxation and bot pass it to consumers. Why American manufacturers that are not directly tarriff impacted arent also raising their prices simply because they can with foreign goods becoming more expensive.

I mean, its already happening, but id like to know how your fantasy land works, and is different from what even trump has admitted at this point.

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I already explained.

The increase will be from the low supplier to the second lowest. The second lowest will be the supplier, thus the entire brunt will not be a hit to consumer.

And since there is only ONE major supplier hit, either they absorb most of the tariffs, or they go out of business.

Some things are just not that hard.

And, it's not just THIS time. LAST time Trump implemented tariffs, inflation didn't rise much at all.

Labor is the biggest impact to inflation. Labor costs is built into every single thing we buy. Oil price is also a huge contributor. The extended payments to people sitting at home after COVID had a much bigger impact to inflation than these tariffs will.

Oil price = down
Labor cost = normal 3% - 5% increases

Thus, the overall inflation will not be affected by the entire costs of these tariffs. If anything, it will increase the production of US companies, thus adding to the tax base and helping to pay off the debt.

So it is just fantasy land.

Prices can I crease without inflation... you understand that right? We are still paying more for many things because of it. With blanket protectionist tarriffs, there are no alternative suppliers.

This is "two teas" level economic ignorance.

Ag_of_08 said:

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So it is just fantasy land.

Prices can I crease without inflation... you understand that right? We are still paying more for many things because of it. With blanket protectionist tarriffs, there are no alternative suppliers.

This is "two teas" level economic ignorance.

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What I described is what happened the last time Trump implemented tariffs. Now, I get TDS and real life for those with severe TDS can make real life seem like fantasy land.

But real life says inflation won't go up nearly as much as these tariffs. Just like the last time this happened.

The main driver for the inflation we've seen, and the reason we are paying so much more for things is exactly what I described above. When we kept paying folks to stay at home and there were tons of jobs available, people that worked for lower wages continued to stay at home. Minimum wage jobs went from 7-10/hr to 15-17 per hour. That affected the cost of everything. Now that has leveled off, guess what? Costs have also leveled off and inflation is back to 2%-3%.

Nothing to do with tariffs.

Ag_of_08 said:

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So it is just fantasy land.

Prices can I crease without inflation... you understand that right? We are still paying more for many things because of it. With blanket protectionist tarriffs, there are no alternative suppliers.

This is "two teas" level economic ignorance.

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Actually, labor costs can increase without impacting product prices IF labor productivity improves faster than the rate of labor inflation. We've done that for several decades. It's why wages increased at 3.5% (or whatever is the precise number) and inflation was under that. Investments in technology were a huge enabler of that.

Where we go from here is anybody's guess. The labor force participation rate has fallen for many years as more and more people find a way to suck off the government teat instead of working. That puts a bigger burden on government spending, impacting the national debt, and ultimately driving up interest rates which puts the whole house of cards at risk.

As for the impact of tariffs, it's just not believable to think we can raise the overall tariff level on imports and not feel an inflationary impact. That's just a pipe dream. Whether it's a small or large impact remains to be seen.

hph6203 said:

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You're talking about selective emphasis, but by choosing to focus on YoY inflation and ignoring the monthly figures what you're doing is emphasizing the differential between 12 months ago MoM inflation and last month's MoM inflation without consideration to why inflation was lower 12 months ago than 30 days ago.

It's why you were insistent that inflation was durably going to stay at 4% and it subsequently and rapidly collapsed to 3%, because you narrowly focus on the yearly figure. Inflation coming in below estimates and below target in the most recent month is a good thing.

2024 May price change was flat. Guess what? What happened this month is likely to happen next month and it will still signal stable to slowing inflation at target even though the yearly figure rises. Why? Because prices were flat in June 2024.

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I'm not doing anything. He compared last years YoY in the month of May to this year's May YoY and claimed that inflation is "going down" based on that comparison. That is nonsense. I would hope you could understand that but apparently not. Is it lower now than then? Yes. But that doesn't mean it is going down. I simply chose a different YoY time to show his conclusion to be erroneous.

The fact is, I'm paying more YoY right now than I was last month. Inflation went up! If the MoM rate in June matches the May rate, the YoY rate will go up again since June 24 was flat.

If we remain flat every month this year, 0.1%, we will end the year at almost 2.6% YoY. That's an increase from where we currently are. The average MoM rate over the last year was 0.18%. The odds of averaging 0.1% is nil. That means it will be higher than 2.6% to end the year. Using that same average, it'll be above 3%.

You have no idea what it will do next month, nor do I. The "experts" were incorrect on their prediction and that is irrelevant anyway.

Science Denier said:

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BusterAg said:

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Science Denier said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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Very few people have increased their salaries anywhere near that range, especially if they're mid career or later.

And inflation is up 25-30% in 4-5 years. As the poster above me pointed out COL is up 100% on some basic items. We're nowngoing to tack a 10-50% COST increase on to that...Noone salary is keeping up with it.

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We are not going to tack on a 10-50% cost increase on anything.

And the reduced oil price will bring DOWN alot of costs.

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Want to take a bet?

My bet is that by 12/31/2028, the average cost of a big mac according to the Economist Big Mac Index will be at least $7. XM It is around $5.79 as of April 30.

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lol. LMAO. Big Mac index. That measures currency difference. Not US inflation.

CPI won't show 27% inflation by 2028.

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CPI can be and will be manipulated.

While the Big Mac Index is a tool that is used to measure PPP between countries, you have to have a baseline average price for a Big Mac in each country before you do the second step of the calculation that compares the similar product across currencies. I will be happy to explain this in more simple terms if you have a hard time grasping the reason why the first step would be a good alternative measure for inflation within a single country.

I'm also not sure how you came up with 27%. Care to share that math?

Science Denier said:

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Labor is the biggest impact to inflation. Labor costs is built into every single thing we buy. Oil price is also a huge contributor. The extended payments to people sitting at home after COVID had a much bigger impact to inflation than these tariffs will.

Oil price = down
Labor cost = normal 3% - 5% increases

Thus, the overall inflation will not be affected by the entire costs of these tariffs. If anything, it will increase the production of US companies, thus adding to the tax base and helping to pay off the debt.

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Inflation always is, always has been, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. Tariffs impact relative prices within an economy. They do not have a major impact on overall inflation. Let me know if you disagree with Uncle Milty on this.

Now, expanding the money supply significantly to pay for massive government deficits, created in part by transfer payments during COVID? That will of course impact inflation.

You're continuing to conflate price increases due to taxation with inflation.

Im not claiming they will drive inflation, the FACT is they cause price increases. The last time and this time.

Quote:

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I'm also not sure how you came up with 27%. Care to share that math?

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(7-5.79)/5.79 = 21%. Typo. I said 27$.

Ag_of_08 said:

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You're continuing to conflate price increases due to taxation with inflation.

Im not claiming they will drive inflation, the FACT is they cause price increases. The last time and this time.

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How much price increase did we see last time Trump imposed tariffs?

Logos Stick said:

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hph6203 said:

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You're talking about selective emphasis, but by choosing to focus on YoY inflation and ignoring the monthly figures what you're doing is emphasizing the differential between 12 months ago MoM inflation and last month's MoM inflation without consideration to why inflation was lower 12 months ago than 30 days ago.

It's why you were insistent that inflation was durably going to stay at 4% and it subsequently and rapidly collapsed to 3%, because you narrowly focus on the yearly figure. Inflation coming in below estimates and below target in the most recent month is a good thing.

2024 May price change was flat. Guess what? What happened this month is likely to happen next month and it will still signal stable to slowing inflation at target even though the yearly figure rises. Why? Because prices were flat in June 2024.

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I'm not doing anything. He compared last years YoY in the month of May to this year's May YoY and claimed that inflation is "going down" based on that comparison. That is nonsense. I would hope you could understand that but apparently not. Is it lower now than then? Yes. But that doesn't mean it is going down. I simply chose a different YoY time to show his conclusion to be erroneous.

The fact is, I'm paying more YoY right now than I was last month. Inflation went up! If the MoM rate is flat next month relative to May, the YoY rate will go up again since June 24 was flat.

If we remain flat every month this year, 0.1%, we will end the year at almost 2.6% YoY. That's an increase from where we currently are. The average MoM rate over the last year was 0.18%. The odds of averaging 0.1% is nil. That means it will be higher than 2.6% to end the year. Using that same average, it'll be above 3%.

You have no idea what it will do next month, nor do I. The "experts" were incorrect on their prediction and that is irrelevant anyway.

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.1% the rest of the year gets you 1.6%, not 2.6%. .18% inflation for the rest of the year gets you around 2.1%, not above 3%. YTD inflation is .9%, there are 7 months remaining to be reported. In order to hit your 2.6% number MoM would have to average around .25% for the rest of the year, which necessitates a re-acceleration of inflation over what has happened over the last 6 and 12 months.

I have no idea what will happen next month. I know what happened over the last 4 months, which is below target inflation (averaging .1% MoM). I know what happened last month, which was below target inflation. You are claiming things are worse. They are not. The basis of your claim is that 12 months ago prices were flat. 12 months ago cannot be changed and far less relevant to today than what happened 1 month ago, or 3 months ago. When you focus on changes in YoY inflation what you're doing is comparing last months rate of rise to 12 months ago's rate of rise and causes you to lag what the actual present market is doing substantially.

hph6203 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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hph6203 said:

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You're talking about selective emphasis, but by choosing to focus on YoY inflation and ignoring the monthly figures what you're doing is emphasizing the differential between 12 months ago MoM inflation and last month's MoM inflation without consideration to why inflation was lower 12 months ago than 30 days ago.

It's why you were insistent that inflation was durably going to stay at 4% and it subsequently and rapidly collapsed to 3%, because you narrowly focus on the yearly figure. Inflation coming in below estimates and below target in the most recent month is a good thing.

2024 May price change was flat. Guess what? What happened this month is likely to happen next month and it will still signal stable to slowing inflation at target even though the yearly figure rises. Why? Because prices were flat in June 2024.

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I'm not doing anything. He compared last years YoY in the month of May to this year's May YoY and claimed that inflation is "going down" based on that comparison. That is nonsense. I would hope you could understand that but apparently not. Is it lower now than then? Yes. But that doesn't mean it is going down. I simply chose a different YoY time to show his conclusion to be erroneous.

The fact is, I'm paying more YoY right now than I was last month. Inflation went up! If the MoM rate is flat next month relative to May, the YoY rate will go up again since June 24 was flat.

If we remain flat every month this year, 0.1%, we will end the year at almost 2.6% YoY. That's an increase from where we currently are. The average MoM rate over the last year was 0.18%. The odds of averaging 0.1% is nil. That means it will be higher than 2.6% to end the year. Using that same average, it'll be above 3%.

You have no idea what it will do next month, nor do I. The "experts" were incorrect on their prediction and that is irrelevant anyway.

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.1% the rest of the year gets you 1.6%, not 2.6%. .18% inflation for the rest of the year gets you around 2.1%, not above 3%. YTD inflation is .9%, there are 7 months remaining to be reported. In order to hit your 2.6% number MoM would have to average around .25% for the rest of the year, which necessitates a re-acceleration of inflation over what has happened over the last 6 months.

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That is completely incorrect.

The index in Dec 24 was 315.61. At 0.1% MoM from now until year end gets you to 323.72 in Dec 25. That is a 2.57% YoY rate.

.1% increase in the index is not the same as .1% reported MoM inflation, because it ignores seasonality. If you want to say "if reported inflation accelerates to end the year, we'll have higher inflation to end the year." I won't argue.

Since the slope changed, back in June 2022, the aggregate delta between the two indexes is 2/10ths of 1 percent, and the adjusted series was higher. So we end up between 2.4% and 2.8% YoY, at or above where we are now. But that's not happening! Inflation will come in at 3% or higher year end.

Logos Stick said:

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Since the slope changed, back in June 2022, the aggregate delta between the two indexes is 2/10ths of 1 percent, and the adjusted series was higher. So we end up between 2.4% and 2.8% YoY, at or above where we are now. But that's not happening! Inflation will come in at 3% or higher year end.

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Just like we'll stay at 4% as the new normal.

Logos Stick said:

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You have no idea what it will do next month, nor do I.

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