Logos Stick said:

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Inflation rate rises. There will be no rate reduction.

*US MAY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US MAY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%

*US MAY CORE CPI RISES 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US MAY CORE CPI RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 11, 2025

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This shows that inflation is down and it came in lower than the estimates. The rate of growth is declining, but it's not negative or deflationary.

So far, the Trump tariffs have not caused inflation growth, but there's a chance they could in the future. Notice I said could. Right now inflation is low which should allow the Fed to focus on unemployment. If inflation stays low and job starts falter a little, they should make one or two cuts this year.

The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

Sims said:

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Owner Equivalent Rent is about 25% component of the CPI. If you back out OER (which is historically slow to reflect changes) and use an alternative method to measure price changes with respect to housing - you get a different picture. Potentially, you get a negative number but a lower number none the less.



Edit to add "US Data"

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Using Zillow as a source. Historically and consistently WRONG as they have no idea how to value property and less idea what rents are.

No, just the actual cost of things from indirect taxation through tarriffs.

Or are you still delusional enough to believe businesses are going to magically eat 10-50% materials cost increases. I mean, it's not devaluation of the currency, its just going to be direct price increases.

The net effect is nearly identical, but make yourself feel better that its not what they previous idiots did, just new idiocy.

Ag_of_08 said:

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No, just the actual cost of things from indirect taxation through tarriffs.

Or are you still delusional enough to believe businesses are going to magically eat 10-50% materials cost increases.

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The cost increase will mostly be the price delta from the low supplier to the second low supplier.

And China will eat a lot of their tarried cost because they need to sell stuff in the US.

LMCane said:

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so the Fed was able to cut rates 7 months ago when INFLATION WAS HIGHER

but now that it is lower, they refuse to have another 25 basis cut.

how does this make sense?!

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When will you learn? The FED doesn't exist to help the economy or the people. It exists to protect the banks. It does this by manufacturing boom and bust cycles. The banks get rich in the busts from wealth distribution while the people lose everything and then pay for it decades later with decreased purchasing power through inflation.

This is history played out over and over again.

Ask yourself. Are we approaching the point where the FED loosens to engage a boom cycle? Or are we closer to the bust and next great wealth transfer from the taxpayer to the banks and wealthy class?

Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Perhaps you misunderstand statistics. From the BLS release:

Quote:

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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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Yes, the index increased by 0.1% from April, but the rate of inflation was actually down 0.1% from April.

Quote:

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Core inflation--which strips out food and energy--held steady at the lowest level since March 2021. The White House noted that under Trump, core inflation has averaged just 2.0% annually, mirroring rates last seen during his first term.

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What am I reading here? Did an old MSM flunky start this topic?

We had a very cool inflation report and someone started a topic called "inflation up".

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Sims said:

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Owner Equivalent Rent is about 25% component of the CPI. If you back out OER (which is historically slow to reflect changes) and use an alternative method to measure price changes with respect to housing - you get a different picture. Potentially, you get a negative number but a lower number none the less.



Edit to add "US Data"

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Using Zillow as a source. Historically and consistently WRONG as they have no idea how to value property and less idea what rents are.

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Any source other than our own personal experience is going to have some level of fallibility and bias. Even then, our own personal experience only describes itself and noone elses. Fact of the matter is, there is a high level of coorelation between the direction of the movements over time and the non-cpi measures tend to lead the lagged CPI measure.

The fed is historically lagged in their movements. Part of the reason is because they use metrics that lag. It's like having a whole bunch of slack in your steering that makes it very hard not to overcorrect when you have to make changes in your direction.

My intention was to present a perspective that says that while official CPI is still 2+ whatever, alternative, and more real time metrics, are pointing to the fact that it might in fact be sub 2% and therefore the Fed is likely behind the curve again on rate changes according to their waypoints. Personally, I don't think a rate change lower is warranted here BUT I'm not the Fed and only trying to analyze according to their construct.

One thing people seem to always forget is that inflation stacks. All that increase we took in latter half of Trump 45 and all through Biden didn't reduce back down to prices pre-COVID for the vast majority of things.

We increased baseline spending by massive amounts during that time period which are going to be codified as permanent going forward. So your prices aren't going back down.

YouBet said:

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One thing people seem to always forget is that inflation stacks. All that increase we took in latter half of Trump 45 and all through Biden didn't reduce back down to prices pre-COVID for the vast majority of things.

We increased baseline spending by massive amounts during that time period which are going to be codified as permanent going forward. So your prices aren't going back down.

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This is where the cynicism of our government is an absolute killer. Anyone with half a brain knew that the COVID "emergency" spending would simply become the new baseline, just like every "temporary" need before it became the new baseline. Its so incredibly difficult to pull back something once it's been added to the pile, it's almost a law of physics.

Yet we have a lot of MAGA telling us there's barely anything to cut. It's madness.

Desert Ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Perhaps you misunderstand statistics. From the BLS release:

Quote:

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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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Yes, the index increased by 0.1% from April, but the rate of inflation was actually down 0.1% from April.

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That's not the point he made. He said "it" - the OP - shows inflation is down and said "came in lower than estimates", which are not relevant. The OP didn't mention April's MoM. Yes, relative to April, the MoM increase is lower, but the YoY rate is higher. Should have said prices rose, which is true in both cases.

Logos Stick said:

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Desert Ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Perhaps you misunderstand statistics. From the BLS release:

Quote:

---

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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Yes, the index increased by 0.1% from April, but the rate of inflation was actually down 0.1% from April.

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That's not the point he made. He said "it" - the OP - shows inflation is down and said "came in lower than estimates", which are not relevant. The OP didn't mention April's MoM. Yes, relative to April, the MoM increase is lower, but the YoY rate is higher. Should have said prices rose, which is true in both cases.

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Cleaned it up for you.

Sims said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Sims said:

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Owner Equivalent Rent is about 25% component of the CPI. If you back out OER (which is historically slow to reflect changes) and use an alternative method to measure price changes with respect to housing - you get a different picture. Potentially, you get a negative number but a lower number none the less.



Edit to add "US Data"

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Using Zillow as a source. Historically and consistently WRONG as they have no idea how to value property and less idea what rents are.

---

Any source other than our own personal experience is going to have some level of fallibility and bias. Even then, our own personal experience only describes itself and noone elses. Fact of the matter is, there is a high level of coorelation between the direction of the movements over time and the non-cpi measures tend to lead the lagged CPI measure.

The fed is historically lagged in their movements. Part of the reason is because they use metrics that lag. It's like having a whole bunch of slack in your steering that makes it very hard not to overcorrect when you have to make changes in your direction.

My intention was to present a perspective that says that while official CPI is still 2+ whatever, alternative, and more real time metrics, are pointing to the fact that it might in fact be sub 2% and therefore the Fed is likely behind the curve again on rate changes according to their waypoints. Personally, I don't think a rate change lower is warranted here BUT I'm not the Fed and only trying to analyze according to their construct.

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The FED follows the bond market. That's why they lag. Compare a FED funds rate chart post-2008 to the 10-year treasury yield.

Any other attempt to explain it is pure made up narrative to give yourself the feeling that the generous FED truly tries to do good.

They never have and never will. They will continue to manufacture scenarios to steal as much from you as possible while then telling you THANK GOD they arrived to save you from yourself.

I've been called a liar and a Fed lover on this thread. Awesome. The Federal Reserve really does elicit very visceral responses. I'll step away with this, always remember to trade the market you're in, not the one that you wish existed.

LMCane said:

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so the Fed was able to cut rates 7 months ago when INFLATION WAS HIGHER

but now that it is lower, they refuse to have another 25 basis cut.

how does this make sense?!

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When they cut half a percent the last time, many people said at the time that was probably too much and it would mean that there would be (a) fewer cuts in 2025 and (b) the next cut would be further out. So we're not getting another cut yet precisely BECAUSE we got the last one as big as it was.

Desert Ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Desert Ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Perhaps you misunderstand statistics. From the BLS release:

Quote:

---

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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Yes, the index increased by 0.1% from April, but the rate of inflation was actually down 0.1% from April.

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That's not the point he made. He said "it" - the OP - shows inflation is down and said "came in lower than estimates", which are not relevant. The OP didn't mention April's MoM. Yes, relative to April, the MoM increase is lower, but the YoY rate is higher. Should have said prices rose, which is true in both cases.

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Cleaned it up for you.

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Not really. YoY inflation rate is higher. Estimates are irrelevant. You got me on the MoM. Congrats I guess. HTH.

Ag_of_08 said:

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Funny..... **** is still getting more expensive, and that problem is getting worse by the day. My wages still aren't changing, and aren't suddenly going to go 10-50% up.

Its almost like numbers can be interpreted in a way that defys reality...

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So let's say inflation has increased costs 25% since 2020. You have not increased your salary 25% since 2020?

True inflation is not 25% since 2020. I believe according to the Fed's CPI, the total since 2020 is quoted somewhere between 20 - 25% to your point.

Problem is, and it has been this way for decades, the CPI does not accurately reflect actual inflation in the real world, by its very design. Mostly based on what is excludes. And in periods of high inflation, this discrepancy is obviously magnified. I mean their calculations are correct, the statistic itself is just meaningless for inflationary periods.

For example, according to CPI inflation was 4.7% in 2020 and 8.0% in 2021. Anyone who was a functioning adult and not in a coma knows how absolutely absurd that is in reality, it was significantly higher.

I'm looking for a source that attempts to remove CPI's wizardry but if my memory arrives me correct actual inflation was much closer to the 40% range conservatively, likely higher. Anyone who buys their own groceries knows this.

Sorry for the tangent, just have to point how how ridiculous these propaganda figures are.

Tom Fox said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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Funny..... **** is still getting more expensive, and that problem is getting worse by the day. My wages still aren't changing, and aren't suddenly going to go 10-50% up.

Its almost like numbers can be interpreted in a way that defys reality...

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So let's say inflation has increased costs 25% since 2020. You have not increased your salary 25% since 2020?

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25%?

Beef - nearly doubled
Chicken - 50%+
Insurance - 100%+
Mcdonalds - 50-100% on all menu items

Can count everything in between and not come close to 25% based on what take home pay actually spends on.

Compound inflation since 2020 had destroyed at least half of people's purchasing power. And no, wages haven't even become close to starting to think about catching up, as they are up 20-25% since 2020, though not for everyone.

Very few people have increased their salaries anywhere near that range, especially if they're mid career or later.

And inflation is up 25-30% in 4-5 years. As the poster above me pointed out COL is up 100% on some basic items. We're nowngoing to tack a 10-50% COST increase on to that...Noone salary is keeping up with it.

Ag_of_08 said:

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Very few people have increased their salaries anywhere near that range, especially if they're mid career or later.

And inflation is up 25-30% in 4-5 years. As the poster above me pointed out COL is up 100% on some basic items. We're nowngoing to tack a 10-50% COST increase on to that...Noone salary is keeping up with it.

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We are not going to tack on a 10-50% cost increase on anything.

And the reduced oil price will bring DOWN alot of costs.

What are the components of the CPI doing?

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Tom Fox said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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Funny..... **** is still getting more expensive, and that problem is getting worse by the day. My wages still aren't changing, and aren't suddenly going to go 10-50% up.

Its almost like numbers can be interpreted in a way that defys reality...

---

So let's say inflation has increased costs 25% since 2020. You have not increased your salary 25% since 2020?

---

25%?

Beef - nearly doubled
Chicken - 50%+
Insurance - 100%+
Mcdonalds - 50-100% on all menu items

Can count everything in between and not come close to 25% based on what take home pay actually spends on.

Compound inflation since 2020 had destroyed at least half of people's purchasing power. And no, wages haven't even become close to starting to think about catching up, as they are up 20-25% since 2020, though not for everyone.

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If it were still calculated the way we calculated it under Carter, it would absolutely be around 50%. We lost about 50% of our buying power under Carter. Under the current definition we've lost 25%. As was pointed out before, they use OER now instead of home prices. They also don't use a fixed basket of goods anymore - e.g. substitute chicken when beef gets too expensive - and they have reduced the sensitivity to oil and gas prices.


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

LMCane said:

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so the Fed was able to cut rates 7 months ago when INFLATION WAS HIGHER

but now that it is lower, they refuse to have another 25 basis cut.

how does this make sense?!

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I think its because they're waiting to see the impact of tariffs and that won't happen for at least another month

Ag_of_08 said:

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Very few people have increased their salaries anywhere near that range, especially if they're mid career or later.

And inflation is up 25-30% in 4-5 years. As the poster above me pointed out COL is up 100% on some basic items. We're nowngoing to tack a 10-50% COST increase on to that...Noone salary is keeping up with it.

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That has not been my experience with my friends and colleagues. So I guess the answer is no?

Jet White said:

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True inflation is not 25% since 2020. I believe according to the Fed's CPI, the total since 2020 is quoted somewhere between 20 - 25% to your point.

Problem is, and it has been this way for decades, the CPI does not accurately reflect actual inflation in the real world, by its very design. Mostly based on what is excludes. And in periods of high inflation, this discrepancy is obviously magnified. I mean their calculations are correct, the statistic itself is just meaningless for inflationary periods.

For example, according to CPI inflation was 4.7% in 2020 and 8.0% in 2021. Anyone who was a functioning adult and not in a coma knows how absolutely absurd that is in reality, it was significantly higher.

I'm looking for a source that attempts to remove CPI's wizardry but if my memory arrives me correct actual inflation was much closer to the 40% range conservatively, likely higher. Anyone who buys their own groceries knows this.

Sorry for the tangent, just have to point how how ridiculous these propaganda figures are.

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Yep.

Like I said, I don't look to their made-up ass numbers, I look at prices at the store/gas station/etc. Inflation was, and is, higher than "they" say it is.

Jet White said:

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True inflation is not 25% since 2020. I believe according to the Fed's CPI, the total since 2020 is quoted somewhere between 20 - 25% to your point.

Problem is, and it has been this way for decades, the CPI does not accurately reflect actual inflation in the real world, by its very design. Mostly based on what is excludes. And in periods of high inflation, this discrepancy is obviously magnified. I mean their calculations are correct, the statistic itself is just meaningless for inflationary periods.

For example, according to CPI inflation was 4.7% in 2020 and 8.0% in 2021. Anyone who was a functioning adult and not in a coma knows how absolutely absurd that is in reality, it was significantly higher.

I'm looking for a source that attempts to remove CPI's wizardry but if my memory arrives me correct actual inflation was much closer to the 40% range conservatively, likely higher. Anyone who buys their own groceries knows this.

Sorry for the tangent, just have to point how how ridiculous these propaganda figures are.

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I think my personal expenses have probably gone up 30-35% over the past 5 years.

Of course I own my home and vehicles. The largest jumps have actually been in health insurance, home owners insurance, private school tuition, and food.

Science Denier said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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Very few people have increased their salaries anywhere near that range, especially if they're mid career or later.

And inflation is up 25-30% in 4-5 years. As the poster above me pointed out COL is up 100% on some basic items. We're nowngoing to tack a 10-50% COST increase on to that...Noone salary is keeping up with it.

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We are not going to tack on a 10-50% cost increase on anything.

And the reduced oil price will bring DOWN alot of costs.

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Want to take a bet?

My bet is that by 12/31/2028, the average cost of a big mac according to the Economist Big Mac Index will be at least $7. It is around $5.79 as of April 30.

Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Inflation, by definition is a RISE in prices. We are seeing the growth rate of inflation decelerate, but it's probably never going to be negative. If it were to go negative, that would be deflation, and it would bring a host of new problems.

When people talk about inflation going down, it doesn't mean that prices are falling, it just means that prices are rising less quickly. Inflation is absolutely going down. That is a fact. Unfortunately, you won't be satisfied until we have deflation. There's a difference.

jwhaby said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The inflation rate ROSE both MoM and YoY. I don't care what the estimates were. They are irrelevant.

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Inflation, by definition is a RISE in prices. We are seeing the growth rate of inflation decelerate, but it's probably never going to be negative. If it were to go negative, that would be deflation, and it would bring a host of new problems.

When people talk about inflation going down, it doesn't mean that prices are falling, it just means that prices are rising less quickly. Inflation is absolutely going down. That is a fact. Unfortunately, you won't be satisfied until we have deflation. There's a difference.

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Deflation is not good. Agree on that.

Inflation isn't good either, especially for older people living on fixed incomes. For a variety of reasons, inflation is somewhat natural and if contained at low levels is probably the better scenario than drifting into deflation.

The 2% inflation target has been around for quite awhile and served us well. Core inflation is still at 2.8% and has been somewhat stubborn in the upper 2's. We still have a ways to go before cutting rates.

Tom Fox said:

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Jet White said:

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True inflation is not 25% since 2020. I believe according to the Fed's CPI, the total since 2020 is quoted somewhere between 20 - 25% to your point.

Problem is, and it has been this way for decades, the CPI does not accurately reflect actual inflation in the real world, by its very design. Mostly based on what is excludes. And in periods of high inflation, this discrepancy is obviously magnified. I mean their calculations are correct, the statistic itself is just meaningless for inflationary periods.

For example, according to CPI inflation was 4.7% in 2020 and 8.0% in 2021. Anyone who was a functioning adult and not in a coma knows how absolutely absurd that is in reality, it was significantly higher.

I'm looking for a source that attempts to remove CPI's wizardry but if my memory arrives me correct actual inflation was much closer to the 40% range conservatively, likely higher. Anyone who buys their own groceries knows this.

Sorry for the tangent, just have to point how how ridiculous these propaganda figures are.

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I think my personal expenses have probably gone up 30-35% over the past 5 years.

Of course I own my home and vehicles. The largest jumps have actually been in health insurance, home owners insurance, private school tuition, and food.

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Keyboards, man....keyboard inflation is debilitating, I bet.

In May of 2024, the CPI was 3.3%. In May of 2025 the CPI is 2.4%. Please tell me if CPI (inflation) increases or decreases over the past 12 months? I'll hang up and listen.

BusterAg said:

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Science Denier said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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Very few people have increased their salaries anywhere near that range, especially if they're mid career or later.

And inflation is up 25-30% in 4-5 years. As the poster above me pointed out COL is up 100% on some basic items. We're nowngoing to tack a 10-50% COST increase on to that...Noone salary is keeping up with it.

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We are not going to tack on a 10-50% cost increase on anything.

And the reduced oil price will bring DOWN alot of costs.

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Want to take a bet?

My bet is that by 12/31/2028, the average cost of a big mac according to the Economist Big Mac Index will be at least $7. XM It is around $5.79 as of April 30.

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lol. LMAO. Big Mac index. That measures currency difference. Not US inflation.

CPI won't show 27% inflation by 2028.