https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/29/business/home-sellers-market-redfin-report?Date=20250529&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1748520488&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwQ0xDSwKoQClleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHkumtSoAw5Yr2dQlg5-1nnVHOxrJ8gGKxiGYMXj7juiWEAiumHv_UI2PAOSk_aem_MAv8ld6z5fdMdlFGKEu9Ag

This article makes a very generic and broad claim that sellers now outnumbered buyers. That is true nationally, but there has been absolutely no slowdown in homes built in Texas over the last year. And I don't see it happening anytime soon. But with property taxes and homeowners insurance going through the roof, how does that shape the future of Texas residential real estate markets? At what point will people not be able to keep it even though they technically own it?

Still firmly believe that greater Houston area real estate is like LA in the 80s. I do not see it losing value at all.

Well, generally this will favor those with incomes that also get inflated along with those costs and hurt those with static incomes or no income.

Eventually people will move because of life events and the market will stabilize to a relative norm.

To add to what Dill Ag said - I feel the same way about DFW. The market is robust and there is still decent economic activity. The economy is also diverse enough and the alternatives of other states are worse enough to make it still very attractive even at these interest rates.

You should reference the thread on Indians moving to Texas. Unfortunately it looks like it was censored by staff

Texas does need to get the property taxes under control. It has become a never ending wealth tax that is impossible to escape and must be paid just to live. For a retiree with little to no income it is actually more expensive to live in Texas than other places even if you own a home free and clear.

There is only one truth about real estate.

" Buy land, they're not making it anymore," Mark Twain

kag00 said:

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Texas does need to get the property taxes under control. It has become a never ending wealth tax that is impossible to escape and must be paid just to live. For a retiree with little to no income it is actually more expensive to live in Texas than other places even if you own a home free and clear.

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Inadvertently funding vouchers may help, since public schools rely on property taxes so much. Siphon off some of those funds for private schools and county appraisers may become just a little more hesitant to raise values every year. Especially if they think somebody is getting a "free ride" when they raise values.

kag00 said:

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Texas does need to get the property taxes under control. It has become a never ending wealth tax that is impossible to escape and must be paid just to live. For a retiree with little to no income it is actually more expensive to live in Texas than other places even if you own a home free and clear.

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Thats a feature, not a bug.

"At what point will people not be able to keep it even though they technically own it?"

With a significant portion of homeowners locked in with loans originated years ago at low interest rates, this may never be a significant problem.

Aggie Spirit said:

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"At what point will people not be able to keep it even though they technically own it?"

With a significant portion of homeowners locked in with loans originated years ago at low interest rates, this may never be a significant problem.

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Pretty sure he was talking about taxes and insurance both of which are on a tear upwards the last several years. Those never go away.

kag00 said:

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Texas does need to get the property taxes under control. It has become a never ending wealth tax that is impossible to escape and must be paid just to live. For a retiree with little to no income it is actually more expensive to live in Texas than other places even if you own a home free and clear.

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We are a couple years out from retirement and are already looking out of state. Never thought I would even consider leaving Texas but property taxes are going to be brutal for retirees. Sure they are kinda capped but if you are already paying $10k+ per year plus escalating insurance it makes a lot of sense to move.

lb3 said:

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kag00 said:

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Texas does need to get the property taxes under control. It has become a never ending wealth tax that is impossible to escape and must be paid just to live. For a retiree with little to no income it is actually more expensive to live in Texas than other places even if you own a home free and clear.

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Thats a feature, not a bug.

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Ridiculous statement.

I think a lot more retirees in Texas will start taking advantage of the deferred property tax option and just not pay. The problem is of course a huge bill left to their heirs who then have to sell the house to pay off the bill. In that way it's similar to a reverse mortgage.

Of course he was. My point is there's a big cushion for a significant portion of the homeowners since they have low mortgage rates.

doubledog said:

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There is only one truth about real estate.

" Buy land, they're not making it anymore," Mark Twain

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Unless you live near an active volcano & an ocean.

Aggie Spirit said:

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Of course he was. My point is there's a big cushion for a significant portion of the homeowners since they have low mortgage rates.

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I don't understand your point. So right now they are paying mortgage+taxes+ insurance.

In the future, they are paying ever increasing taxes and insurance which is the point of all of these discussions. IOW, can people continue to afford to stay in their homes even after they pay off the mortgage.

There is definitely more sellers than buyers. The average seller and average buyer are both boomers. First timers who dont have above average income plus significant savings are for the most part sidelines. The 30-40yr old sellers are mostly non-existent unless circumstances force them to sell like moving for job. This is the worst market in YEARS, and its only just begun. It's going to get a lot worse.

HumpitPuryear said:

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kag00 said:

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Texas does need to get the property taxes under control. It has become a never ending wealth tax that is impossible to escape and must be paid just to live. For a retiree with little to no income it is actually more expensive to live in Texas than other places even if you own a home free and clear.

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We are a couple years out from retirement and are already looking out of state. Never thought I would even consider leaving Texas but property taxes are going to be brutal for retirees. Sure they are kinda capped but if you are already paying $10k+ per year plus escalating insurance it makes a lot of sense to move.

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We are in the pretend stage of doing this. However, my wife is pretty much adamant about keeping our current house even if we moved which defeats the whole purpose. So, it will likely stay in pretend land forever.

Where are yall looking?

Florida is crashing. Haven't seen that in Texas.

Sooper Jeenyus said:

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lb3 said:

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kag00 said:

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Texas does need to get the property taxes under control. It has become a never ending wealth tax that is impossible to escape and must be paid just to live. For a retiree with little to no income it is actually more expensive to live in Texas than other places even if you own a home free and clear.

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Thats a feature, not a bug.

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Ridiculous statement.

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Property taxes are by design intended to foster productive use of the land. Some states cater to retirees because they want them to bring their money to their states. Others like Texas incentivize economic productivity and retirees don't bring that. You may not like Texas's system but it's not ridiculous to acknowledge that it favors workers over retirees.

Seen a few home builders starting to reduce workforce .

Us too. You looking at Idaho as well?

It favors the state at the expense of the people.

Sooper Jeenyus said:

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It favors the state at the expense of the people.

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Have you never paid taxes before? They all favor the government.

Sure. But I don't pay sales tax in perpetuity after I've already paid for an item in full.

Burn it down. I have been trying to buy Texas real estate for +10 years. Still too high.

Additionally, if the value of my house in Austin goes down during this process I win. Why? It lowers my property tax obligation. Burn it down and raise interest rates Jimmy Carter style.

CampSkunk said:

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Us to. You looking at Idaho as well?

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Beautiful but too far from grandkids. E OK and W AR are under consideration.

Pizza said:

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doubledog said:

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There is only one truth about real estate.

" Buy land, they're not making it anymore," Mark Twain

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Unless you live near an active volcano & an ocean.

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Or Dubai.

Logos Stick said:

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Florida is crashing. Haven't seen that in Texas.

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Depends on the market. Houston is kind of stagnant. Those marquis homes with everything done are moving. Projects aren't. Galveston is full of unsold homes. There's starting to be deals

YouBet said:

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...my wife is pretty much adamant about keeping our current house even if we moved which defeats the whole purpose.

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Just walk out of the kitchen so you can't hear her.

Problem = solved!

techno-ag said:

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I think a lot more retirees in Texas will start taking advantage of the deferred property tax option and just not pay. The problem is of course a huge bill left to their heirs who then have to sell the house to pay off the bill. In that way it's similar to a reverse mortgage.

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Please tell me more about this...
It sounds like you are saying just dont pay taxes for X number of years.. then at some point, you owe it all back. What is stopping someone from keeping the money, investing it, keeping all the returns on the investment, then paying off the deferred amount owed X years later?

Well, crap. Just answered my own question.. roi must exceed 5% to be profitable.

Interest Accrues: Deferred taxes accrue interest at a rate of 5% per year.
Taxes Become Due: The deferred taxes, along with the accrued interest, become due when the homeowner no longer owns and occupies the property as their residence homestead, which can occur upon selling the property, moving out, or passing away.

Yeah had to help some folks out on this not long ago. Widow filed the paperwork and deferred taxes for years. She died and her heirs were stuck with a big bill. They would have liked to keep the house but never would have been able to catch up on the back taxes, so had to sell.