Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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There's people who always say the stock market and the real estate market are poised for a big drop.

Eventually they will be right. But how far away their prediction is from fruition is the real determining factor if they are right.

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A doctor who worked for me in SF was waiting patiently for a correction before she'd buy a house. As prices double and tripled, not sure that waiting for a 10-20% correction would've been all that beneficial...

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If you can afford a down payment of 20% or more of PP, and can afford the P&I along with taxes and insurance at today's prices without stretching your DTI beyond reasonable levels, then go for it.

But we're literally at historical levels of unaffordability in the housing market. Most people can't. Which is why nobody is buying homes right now and inventory is piling up. Everything goes through cycles. This is not the time in the cycle to buy.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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There's people who always say the stock market and the real estate market are poised for a big drop.

Eventually they will be right. But how far away their prediction is from fruition is the real determining factor if they are right.

---

Some people understand warning signs and use them to prepare.

Others stick their heads in the sand.

---

What does that even mean?

There's going to be a real estate crash. OK. So...dont buy a house until it happens?

The stock market has been over inflated for years. Consumer debt is unsustainable.

Most people understand these houses of cards are going to collapse, but few can predict when.

But many will claim they foretold it, even if it disregards missing massive gains by always thinking it's just over the horizon.

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Making sure your money is in a safe bank. Making sure your risk to the downside is minimized in your portfolios. Not being over levered, whether its real estate, trading, consumer loans, etc.

Pretty simple stuff. I get it you can't do it. But some of us can.. and can still participate in gains while we do it.

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But that's prudent advice even when there aren't bad market indicators.

And yes, you can minimize your downside risk and still participate in gains, but that doesn't mean you aren't leaving money on the table. Being more risk averse doesn't mean you are right. As Kaiser pointed out, the people who waited on this housing market to settle down the last 10 years are the people who have found they can't actually afford a house.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

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Proposition Joe said:

---

There's people who always say the stock market and the real estate market are poised for a big drop.

Eventually they will be right. But how far away their prediction is from fruition is the real determining factor if they are right.

---

A doctor who worked for me in SF was waiting patiently for a correction before she'd buy a house. As prices double and tripled, not sure that waiting for a 10-20% correction would've been all that beneficial...

---

But we're literally at historical levels of unaffordability in the housing market. Most people can't. Which is why nobody is buying homes right now and inventory is piling up. Everything goes through cycles. This is not the time in the cycle to buy.

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Except you don't know that. The numbers point that direction, but you don't know that someone waiting it out another 1-2-3-4 years is going to find themselves in a better position.

I don't actually disagree with you on the way the markets are trending - we're looking to buy but waiting some things out a bit. That being said, we've seen plenty of houses in the one zip code we're looking in sell the last few weeks. So while things are trending heavily towards a buyer's market, that doesn't mean sales are at a standstill. I'm being prudent, but I also recognize that in doing so I've been wrong about a few properties and have missed out on them.

Advising people to be cautious in any market is prudent -- especially since many in this current generation haven't seen many painful markets. But at the same time we haven't yet hit a point in most of these markets (real estate, stock, etc...) where one can point out that they were right advising extreme caution.

Prudent and accurate aren't the same thing. And in markets you can be right about eventual outcome, but unless you're also right on the timeline then the market may still prove you wrong. What was the Big Short reply to -- "I may be early but I'm not wrong"?

"It's the same thing."

Proposition Joe said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

There's people who always say the stock market and the real estate market are poised for a big drop.

Eventually they will be right. But how far away their prediction is from fruition is the real determining factor if they are right.

---

Some people understand warning signs and use them to prepare.

Others stick their heads in the sand.

---

What does that even mean?

There's going to be a real estate crash. OK. So...dont buy a house until it happens?

The stock market has been over inflated for years. Consumer debt is unsustainable.

Most people understand these houses of cards are going to collapse, but few can predict when.

But many will claim they foretold it, even if it disregards missing massive gains by always thinking it's just over the horizon.

---

Making sure your money is in a safe bank. Making sure your risk to the downside is minimized in your portfolios. Not being over levered, whether its real estate, trading, consumer loans, etc.

Pretty simple stuff. I get it you can't do it. But some of us can.. and can still participate in gains while we do it.

---

But that's prudent advice even when there aren't bad market indicators.

And yes, you can minimize your downside risk and still participate in gains, but that doesn't mean you aren't leaving money on the table. Being more risk averse doesn't mean you are right. As Kaiser pointed out, the people who waited on this housing market to settle down the last 10 years are the people who have found they can't actually afford a house.

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There is a massive difference between "the last 10 years" and right now. If I have to point that out, then you are incapable of understanding changing dynamics and observing simple metrics.

Proposition Joe said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

There's people who always say the stock market and the real estate market are poised for a big drop.

Eventually they will be right. But how far away their prediction is from fruition is the real determining factor if they are right.

---

A doctor who worked for me in SF was waiting patiently for a correction before she'd buy a house. As prices double and tripled, not sure that waiting for a 10-20% correction would've been all that beneficial...

---

But we're literally at historical levels of unaffordability in the housing market. Most people can't. Which is why nobody is buying homes right now and inventory is piling up. Everything goes through cycles. This is not the time in the cycle to buy.

---

Except you don't know that. The numbers point that direction, but you don't know that someone waiting it out another 1-2-3-4 years is going to find themselves in a better position.

I don't actually disagree with you on the way the markets are trending - we're looking to buy but waiting some things out a bit. That being said, we've seen plenty of houses in the one zip code we're looking in sell the last few weeks. So while things are trending heavily towards a buyer's market, that doesn't mean sales are at a standstill. I'm being prudent, but I also recognize that in doing so I've been wrong about a few properties and have missed out on them.

Advising people to be cautious in any market is prudent -- especially since many in this current generation haven't seen many painful markets. But at the same time we haven't yet hit a point in most of these markets (real estate, stock, etc...) where one can point out that they were right advising extreme caution.

Prudent and accurate aren't the same thing. And in markets you can be right about eventual outcome, but unless you're also right on the timeline then the market may still prove you wrong. What was the Big Short reply to -- "I may be early but I'm not wrong"?

"It's the same thing."

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I work in real estate. Both residential and commercial. I'm also an investor.

Yes, I do know it. Your anecdotal experience means nothing. Show me metrics from any city right now that shows the real estate market is healthy. I'll wait.

Not sure what the spat is about right here.

Market overall is very imbalanced. High taxes, high rates, high insurance costs and entry costs of home ownership is high.

Lots of people who bought 2nd homes or investors or just wanting to move see that there is a glut of homes driving down prices.

If rates were magically 4% again, prices would stabilize because people can afford the payment.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

There's people who always say the stock market and the real estate market are poised for a big drop.

Eventually they will be right. But how far away their prediction is from fruition is the real determining factor if they are right.

---

Some people understand warning signs and use them to prepare.

Others stick their heads in the sand.

---

What does that even mean?

There's going to be a real estate crash. OK. So...dont buy a house until it happens?

The stock market has been over inflated for years. Consumer debt is unsustainable.

Most people understand these houses of cards are going to collapse, but few can predict when.

But many will claim they foretold it, even if it disregards missing massive gains by always thinking it's just over the horizon.

---

Making sure your money is in a safe bank. Making sure your risk to the downside is minimized in your portfolios. Not being over levered, whether its real estate, trading, consumer loans, etc.

Pretty simple stuff. I get it you can't do it. But some of us can.. and can still participate in gains while we do it.

---

But that's prudent advice even when there aren't bad market indicators.

And yes, you can minimize your downside risk and still participate in gains, but that doesn't mean you aren't leaving money on the table. Being more risk averse doesn't mean you are right. As Kaiser pointed out, the people who waited on this housing market to settle down the last 10 years are the people who have found they can't actually afford a house.

---

There is a massive difference between "the last 10 years" and right now. If I have to point that out, then you are incapable of understanding changing dynamics and observing simple metrics.

---

And there will be a difference next year, and the year after.

I know you like to think you are able to predict which way things are going to go, but the smartest people in the world routinely aren't. You're typically vague in your predictions and always have an out to the flip side so you can always say you were never actually wrong.

So yes, you will be right in that the real estate market will have a significant pull back. So will the stock market.

But if you were able to actually predict when this was going to happen with any accuracy or consistency, you'd be a millionaire a few dozen times over.

Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

There's people who always say the stock market and the real estate market are poised for a big drop.

Eventually they will be right. But how far away their prediction is from fruition is the real determining factor if they are right.

---

Some people understand warning signs and use them to prepare.

Others stick their heads in the sand.

---

What does that even mean?

There's going to be a real estate crash. OK. So...dont buy a house until it happens?

The stock market has been over inflated for years. Consumer debt is unsustainable.

Most people understand these houses of cards are going to collapse, but few can predict when.

But many will claim they foretold it, even if it disregards missing massive gains by always thinking it's just over the horizon.

---

Making sure your money is in a safe bank. Making sure your risk to the downside is minimized in your portfolios. Not being over levered, whether its real estate, trading, consumer loans, etc.

Pretty simple stuff. I get it you can't do it. But some of us can.. and can still participate in gains while we do it.

---

But that's prudent advice even when there aren't bad market indicators.

And yes, you can minimize your downside risk and still participate in gains, but that doesn't mean you aren't leaving money on the table. Being more risk averse doesn't mean you are right. As Kaiser pointed out, the people who waited on this housing market to settle down the last 10 years are the people who have found they can't actually afford a house.

---

There is a massive difference between "the last 10 years" and right now. If I have to point that out, then you are incapable of understanding changing dynamics and observing simple metrics.

---

And there will be a difference next year, and the year after.

I know you like to think you are able to predict which way things are going to go, but the smartest people in the world routinely aren't. You're typically vague in your predictions and always have an out to the flip side so you can always say you were never actually wrong.

So yes, you will be right in that the real estate market will have a significant pull back. So will the stock market.

But if you were able to actually predict when this was going to happen with any accuracy or consistency, you'd be a millionaire a few dozen times over.

---

I posted last night that I see warning signs and have made preparations. You expect me to give you the exact date calamity strikes and think you can dunk on me if I don't. That's ridiculous. My whole point is that our country is in an extremely unhealthy place, real estate has never been riskier, stocks have never been riskier, and the capability for MMT magic brush is gone. I always say to manage risk and protect your wealth. What exactly do you want me to do? Please outline in clear detail. And after you do, please state your exact positions on what I just said and what you disagree with.

And as far as "playing both sides".. I always have a primary expectation and an alternate. Not so I can always be right, but so I can pivot quickly once the primary scenario breaks down. I preach that on the stock market thread routinely. Being wrong is going to happen. Staying wrong is what kills you. It's called prudent risk management and the best investors in the world do the same thing. The only people who discount that approach are people like yourself who want to have a reason to dunk on someone else without ever taking a position for themself.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

There's people who always say the stock market and the real estate market are poised for a big drop.

Eventually they will be right. But how far away their prediction is from fruition is the real determining factor if they are right.

---

Some people understand warning signs and use them to prepare.

Others stick their heads in the sand.

---

What does that even mean?

There's going to be a real estate crash. OK. So...dont buy a house until it happens?

The stock market has been over inflated for years. Consumer debt is unsustainable.

Most people understand these houses of cards are going to collapse, but few can predict when.

But many will claim they foretold it, even if it disregards missing massive gains by always thinking it's just over the horizon.

---

Making sure your money is in a safe bank. Making sure your risk to the downside is minimized in your portfolios. Not being over levered, whether its real estate, trading, consumer loans, etc.

Pretty simple stuff. I get it you can't do it. But some of us can.. and can still participate in gains while we do it.

---

But that's prudent advice even when there aren't bad market indicators.

And yes, you can minimize your downside risk and still participate in gains, but that doesn't mean you aren't leaving money on the table. Being more risk averse doesn't mean you are right. As Kaiser pointed out, the people who waited on this housing market to settle down the last 10 years are the people who have found they can't actually afford a house.

---

There is a massive difference between "the last 10 years" and right now. If I have to point that out, then you are incapable of understanding changing dynamics and observing simple metrics.

---

And there will be a difference next year, and the year after.

I know you like to think you are able to predict which way things are going to go, but the smartest people in the world routinely aren't. You're typically vague in your predictions and always have an out to the flip side so you can always say you were never actually wrong.

So yes, you will be right in that the real estate market will have a significant pull back. So will the stock market.

But if you were able to actually predict when this was going to happen with any accuracy or consistency, you'd be a millionaire a few dozen times over.

---

I posted last night that I see warning signs and have made preparations. You expect me to give you the exact date calamity strikes and think you can dunk on me if I don't. That's ridiculous. My whole point is that our country is in an extremely unhealthy place, real estate has never been riskier, stocks have never been riskier, and the capability for MMT magic brush is gone. I always say to manage risk and protect your wealth. What exactly do you want me to do? Please outline in clear detail. And after you do, please state your exact positions on what I just said and what you disagree with.

And as far as "playing both sides".. I always have a primary expectation and an alternate. Not so I can always be right, but so I can pivot quickly once the primary scenario breaks down. I preach that on the stock market thread routinely. Being wrong is going to happen. Staying wrong is what kills you. It's called prudent risk management and the best investors in the world do the same thing. The only people who discount that approach are people like yourself who want to have a reason to dunk on someone else without ever taking a position for themself.

---

You keep wanting to turn this into someone trying to "dunk" on you.

I agree with most of what you are saying about the current state of the market(s).

You're posting history the last 3-4 years shows you are highly risk averse. I (believe) it's done well for you in your trading, but based on how the last 3-4 years have gone, it also means you've left a lot of money on the table to keep that safety net. There's nothing wrong with that -- slow and steady is going to win lots of races... but you seemingly always want to point out that the people that have been less risk averse the last decade haven't been smart, just risky/lucky.

But when you start in about how many who aren't exercising your level of caution just have their heads in the sand and how you know it is not the time to buy because you work in real estate. Spare me.

My position is that you can have all the data in the world and if you think you can routinely and accurately predict the housing (or stock) market then you are kidding yourself.

We bought in January and the decision made a lot of sense for us. Ymmv

I have a friend that tried to buy 10 years ago and was shot down because market was bad and rented.

Could have bought in at $350,000 but husband had a great business deal so they rented.

Business deal went bad and they lost about $50,000

House they wanted just sold for $1,200,000

Husband is not in picture anymore.