Burpelson said:

---

Basically your white collar job is going to be done by A.I., I could easily see 10-20% unemployment very soon.

---

If you are the export compliance manager at a large company-

AI will never replace you.

there is no way one app/tool on the computer can literally organize licenses in different systems, talk with program managers to understand the US Munitions List codes, assign for review in the USG automated computer systems, clear the shipment with the shipping/traffic department..

at least not for another few decades

It's fun to make fun of HR, but this is going to affect a lot more than that. Law firms will have a handful of paralegals running AI. This increases productivity for the firm, but removes a lot of people. At the same time, these things are NOT anywhere close to being error-free. So you might have a batch of lower paid paralegals merely double checking claims from the summary AI spits out. But they will no longer be doing anything other than management and review of the AI.

Think of any industry with data analysis, planning, writing, research, coding.. now replace 75-90% of the people in those roles with AI. The rest merely manage, review, and forward reports to leadership. And that's just with AI in its current and immediate foreseeable capabilities. If it keeps progressing at this pace, architects, engineers, finance, etc all start to be replaced with only an essential core staff to review, manage, and report what the AI designs / calculates.

The first hit will be the lower-level jobs. And it's already started. Next will be those comfortable middle class to upper middle class jobs.

While we will be ok in the long run, just like in the industrial revolution, there will be a depression first. This will absolutely create a new economic paradigm. But ending the current one only comes with pain, especially with worldwide debt loads at unsustainable levels that can't even be slowed down. Once unemployment explodes, and it will, the pain will start. This will take 1-2 decades before we find a bottom, form a new structure for the economy, and begin to pick ourselves up again.

Anyone thinking we just progress into an AI driven society without significant pain first is absolutely delusional.

LMCane said:

---

Burpelson said:

---

Basically your white collar job is going to be done by A.I., I could easily see 10-20% unemployment very soon.

---

If you are the export compliance manager at a large company-

AI will never replace you.

there is no way one app/tool on the computer can literally organize licenses in different systems, talk with program managers to understand the US Munitions List codes, assign for review in the USG automated computer systems, clear the shipment with the shipping/traffic department..

at least not for another few decades

---

I was in this place mentally a few months ago, not anymore. The things I have seen in my own company with AI's ability to learn and integrate logical connections between structured and unstructured data has really taken me by surprise.

It's identifying engineering drawing issues on PDFs located in a company share point site based on common language descriptions used in emails that reference a project name not included in the filename of the PDF. It's suggesting alternative responses to either 1) revise the drawing 2) respond in written form as to how the current design drawing differs from the email request. In both cases, it is additionally providing labor and material costs based off of current ERP data.

We're still running this process concurrent to the engineering team process but I'm certainly seeing a scenario where the workload for this type of process is shifted heavily toward an automated response.

AI is great! Just like any new technology throughout the history of time........you evolve and adapt or you get left behind.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Anyone thinking we just progress into an AI driven society without significant pain first is absolutely delusional.

---

This

I also think its going to be a waterfall effect, which will make it even more disruptive. The industrial revolution was slow compared to what will happen here imo.

Burpelson said:

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When my relative whos I.T. using A.I. to help with code issues and it does in 15 min that takes humans several hours is set- match, you need to start looking for a new career.

---

IT is not just code.
Besides, debugging, troubleshooting and expanding machine written code is a nightmare. I have done it. You can ask AI to do it but it then adds a new level of black-box-ness to it. After a point, you don't recognize your own product and have lost control.

Beware.

Fightin_Aggie said:

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Human Resources is a dehumanizing organization to begin with. Businesses don't have Human Resources.

They have Personnel, change it back to the personal department and maybe these tools can get their jobs back. Otherwise they are nothing more than robots to begin with

---

HR's job is just to protect the company and C level from lawsuits. They don't care about anything else.

HR work isn't a lot. Does not take you 8 hour days. So HR invents work for themselves with DEI, tolerance conferences, empathy training etc etc. It never existed in the late 90s when I started working. It is all over now and you have to waste hours so HR can say they are doing their job.

Corp America sucks now.

txyaloo said:

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Phatbob said:

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The fear of AI is so funny to me. It's the Industrial Revolution for white collar jobs and some of us are like monkeys poking a stick at the new machinery and getting angry at it. All it is is a tool. It raises productivity, which means more from less... a higher general standard of living.

---

Industrialization didn't give us the ability to quickly clone a person's image and voice and release it to the entire world with no skill. That should concern you if it doesn't.

The way these systems are trained (or not trained) should also concern you.

---

There are concerns for how any tool is used. That doesn't make it bad. It just changes what it means to have a marketable skill. The basic tools people have to work with (brains or brawn) will not be affected. How they can use them to be productive will. That is all.

ts5641 said:

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Is AI going to be a thing we will wish we could put back in the box? It seems to have far more bad applications than good.

---

There will be positive and negative aspects, just like social media.

In business, AI will replace only those that do not embrace AI. I have a hard time envisioning how it is going to replace strategic thinking and relationship based industries. It will certainly replace binary type decisions .

Phatbob said:

---

txyaloo said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

The fear of AI is so funny to me. It's the Industrial Revolution for white collar jobs and some of us are like monkeys poking a stick at the new machinery and getting angry at it. All it is is a tool. It raises productivity, which means more from less... a higher general standard of living.

---

Industrialization didn't give us the ability to quickly clone a person's image and voice and release it to the entire world with no skill. That should concern you if it doesn't.

The way these systems are trained (or not trained) should also concern you.

---

There are concerns for how any tool is used. That doesn't make it bad. It just changes what it means to have a marketable skill. The basic tools people have to work with (brains or brawn) will not be affected. How they can use them to be productive will. That is all.

---

I never said AI was bad, but comparing AI, with its ability to completely undermine humanity's trust in what's actually real, to the industrial revolution is just a poor comparison. Have you seen Google's latest Vox demos? In 6-18. months, those are going to be unrecognizable from reality. AI filters can currently be applied to video calls with integrated voice changers. I think that's a problem.

I can't think of any similar technological revolutions. The industrial revolution changed the way we travel and manufacture, but didn't change humanity's perception of what's real/human. The internet dramatically changed society for the worse IMO, but again, we still knew what was "real". CGI did similar and can replicate reality very well but that wasn't instant/real time. Those changes are nothing like what AI is going to bring.

I love AI at work. I've been a proponent for years and work for an "AI first" tech company, but that also means I see the bad sides of AI. I also see the ways AI is trained and the bias' that go into training. That should absolutely concern you.

The genie is never going back in the bottle so we have to deal with the consequences.

infinity ag said:

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new level of black-box-ness

---

African-American-box-ness, David Duke!!!!!

A bunch of luddites up in here.

Quote:

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The internet dramatically changed society for the worse IMO

---

It certainly had its deleterious applications, but I think you are severely under appreciating how much good it has done.

For one, it has dramatically distributed the gatekeepers of media and knowledge.

I also think people are overacting a tad with the deep fake stuff. There's always "something off" about it and I'm not sure if that's ever going to magically go away. In fact,I some sense, the better it gets the more...off...it's going to feel.

txyaloo said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

txyaloo said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

The fear of AI is so funny to me. It's the Industrial Revolution for white collar jobs and some of us are like monkeys poking a stick at the new machinery and getting angry at it. All it is is a tool. It raises productivity, which means more from less... a higher general standard of living.

---

Industrialization didn't give us the ability to quickly clone a person's image and voice and release it to the entire world with no skill. That should concern you if it doesn't.

The way these systems are trained (or not trained) should also concern you.

---

There are concerns for how any tool is used. That doesn't make it bad. It just changes what it means to have a marketable skill. The basic tools people have to work with (brains or brawn) will not be affected. How they can use them to be productive will. That is all.

---

I never said AI was bad, but comparing AI, with its ability to completely undermine humanity's trust in what's actually real, to the industrial revolution is just a poor comparison. Have you seen Google's latest Vox demos? In 6-18. months, those are going to be unrecognizable from reality. AI filters can currently be applied to video calls with integrated voice changers. I think that's a problem.

I can't think of any similar technological revolutions. The industrial revolution changed the way we travel and manufacture, but didn't change humanity's perception of what's real/human. The internet dramatically changed society for the worse IMO, but again, we still knew what was "real". CGI did similar and can replicate reality very well but that wasn't instant/real time. Those changes are nothing like what AI is going to bring.

I love AI at work. I've been a proponent for years and work for an "AI first" tech company, but that also means I see the bad sides of AI. I also see the ways AI is trained and the bias' that go into training. That should absolutely concern you.

The genie is never going back in the bottle so we have to deal with the consequences.

---

At a base level, nothing really changes. A hundred years ago people trusted what was on the radio until they figured out it was all just entertainment. It's just a shift in mindset that was already happening. People have been selectively editing videos and recordings to be something other than they were since about 5 minutes after Alexander Graham Bell recorded his first message. Unless you were born before 1950, there's a good chance you already don't trust everything put on TV or the internet because they've proven to be untrustworthy. The path of being the "source of truth" is always shifting, and this just continues that.

I understand that-

but that is ONE Task.

now how does an "AI" get a registration from the Directorate of Defense Trade Controls through their DECCS system?

you need an Identrust certificate for that.

then have to fill in the DS-2032 12 pages of information.

then have it approved by the US State Department.

then begin filling out your DSP-5 licenses

then instruct your freight forwarder where to pick up the hardware shipments

then work with your classification/jurisdiction specialists on a Technical Assistance Agreement.

how does "AI" do all of that?!

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

It's fun to make fun of HR, but this is going to affect a lot more than that. Law firms will have a handful of paralegals running AI. This increases productivity for the firm, but removes a lot of people. At the same time, these things are NOT anywhere close to being error-free. So you might have a batch of lower paid paralegals merely double checking claims from the summary AI spits out. But they will no longer be doing anything other than management and review of the AI.

Think of any industry with data analysis, planning, writing, research, coding.. now replace 75-90% of the people in those roles with AI. The rest merely manage, review, and forward reports to leadership. And that's just with AI in its current and immediate foreseeable capabilities. If it keeps progressing at this pace, architects, engineers, finance, etc all start to be replaced with only an essential core staff to review, manage, and report what the AI designs / calculates.

The first hit will be the lower-level jobs. And it's already started. Next will be those comfortable middle class to upper middle class jobs.

While we will be ok in the long run, just like in the industrial revolution, there will be a depression first. This will absolutely create a new economic paradigm. But ending the current one only comes with pain, especially with worldwide debt loads at unsustainable levels that can't even be slowed down. Once unemployment explodes, and it will, the pain will start. This will take 1-2 decades before we find a bottom, form a new structure for the economy, and begin to pick ourselves up again.

Anyone thinking we just progress into an AI driven society without significant pain first is absolutely delusional.

---

Sounds like a problem that AI could tackle with the right prompting...

Silent For Too Long said:

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A bunch of luddites up in here.

---

I have long maintained that technology itself isn't the problem, but rather the speed of change/adoption combined with how disruptive the technology is.

When technology is introduced slow enough - people lose jobs, but at a slow enough pace as to be able to re-train and find new jobs (sometimes using the new technology).

But when a pervasive change is introduced very quickly, people don't have enough time to adapt. You end up with too many people unemployed needing to re-skill. And the more people you have in that situation at once the more likely you are to trigger economic problems over the following years.

Everyone will be forced to adapt eventually, the only question is what kind of pain do we have to endure and for how long until things stabilize again?

javajaws said:

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Silent For Too Long said:

---

A bunch of luddites up in here.

---

I have long maintained that technology itself isn't the problem, but rather the speed of change/adoption combined with how disruptive the technology is.

When technology is introduced slow enough - people lose jobs, but at a slow enough pace as to be able to re-train and find new jobs (sometimes using the new technology).

But when a pervasive change is introduced very quickly, people don't have enough time to adapt. You end up with too many people unemployed needing to re-skill. And the more people you have in that situation at once the more likely you are to trigger economic problems over the following years.

Everyone will be forced to adapt eventually, the only question is what kind of pain do we have to endure and for how long until things stabilize again?

---

You got it. Exactly right.

But the Boomers here will call that as laziness and tell us about how they opened an HVAC repair business 'in their time'.

I'm at an inflection point in my career that the vast majority of my job should be using AI. As in, I should be operating in it for several hours per day. I'm currently not because (1) I just haven't stopped down to fully make the transition, and (2) I'm not sure I even want to.

I will say in the Product and IT space if you aren't using IT you are Endangered and will quickly become Extinct if you don't lean hard into it.

For clarity sake, the article states IBM to layoff approximately 8,000….with the majority of these concentrated in HR. That could mean slightly over 4,000?

According to IBM's 2024 annual report, they had ~ 270,000 associates globally so the expected reduction is less than 3% of the workforce (regardless of the department, HR, Finance, customer services, etc.)

LMCane said:

---

I understand that-

but that is ONE Task.

now how does an "AI" get a registration from the Directorate of Defense Trade Controls through their DECCS system?

you need an Identrust certificate for that.

then have to fill in the DS-2032 12 pages of information.

then have it approved by the US State Department.

then begin filling out your DSP-5 licenses

then instruct your freight forwarder where to pick up the hardware shipments

then work with your classification/jurisdiction specialists on a Technical Assistance Agreement.

how does "AI" do all of that?!

---

It's one task to you, sure.

It's an entire department to us. There are different ASME code divisions to consider, there are different customer quality specifications, there are different country of origin restrictions to consider, there are different weld practices to consider, there are different software platforms for drawings amongst customers, there are different NDT routines for each customer. If these products fail, many people die.

With all due respect, you're acting like yours is the only complicated process, my anecdote was simply to highlight the speed at which I came to grip with the fact that AI is capable of much more than I anticipated it to be at this point in the game. I have a suspicion, and its why I commented, that you'll find it to be the same in your application.

YouBet said:

---

I'm at an inflection point in my career that the vast majority of my job should be using AI. As in, I should be operating in it for several hours per day. I'm currently not because (1) I just haven't stopped down to fully make the transition, and (2) I'm not sure I even want to.

I will say in the Product and IT space if you aren't using IT you are Endangered and will quickly become Extinct if you don't lean hard into it.

---

I think you meant "using AI".

So what does using AI mean to you? Just using ChatGPT and the like? Or doing things like writing code for models and training them?

Quote:

---

This frees up resources for more creative things that AI isn't good at.

---

That's the good news. The bad news is that a vast majority of humans aren't very good at those things, either... so now what are they all going to do?

Another article likely the same old story.

Company sees revenues drop.
Instead of announcing cost cutting measures to maintain profitability, company announces "AI breakthrough" allowing for headcount reductions (non contractor headcount).

AI is this great unknown nebulous that is hard to question. But it has this magical implied value that can be anything a ceo needs it to be.

Rinse. Repeat.

We are going to call the next bubble popping to be the AI bubble.

SWCBonfire said:

---

Quote:

---

This frees up resources for more creative things that AI isn't good at.

---

That's the good news. The bad news is that a vast majority of humans aren't very good at those things, either... so now what are they all going to do?

---

Yeah that's the billion dollar question. With each passing year fewer people are capable of keeping up with whatever tech is throwing at us. We've been able to reinvent ourselves countless times before but this is happening so far I'm concerned about how well this transition goes.

texagbeliever said:

---

Another article likely the same old story.

Company sees revenues drop.
Instead of announcing cost cutting measures to maintain profitability, company announces "AI breakthrough" allowing for headcount reductions (non contractor headcount).

AI is this great unknown nebulous that is hard to question. But it has this magical implied value that can be anything a ceo needs it to be.

Rinse. Repeat.

We are going to call the next bubble popping to be the AI bubble.

---

Except AI is doing the popping. AI is no fad just like the internet wasn't. Sure, AI is a buzzword right now, but there is no bubble to pop when it comes to process changes that are happening because of this.

Think of it this way - are the jobs that AI displaced coming back? Not in the same way, because there is no reason for them to exist now.

SWCBonfire said:

---

Quote:

---

This frees up resources for more creative things that AI isn't good at.

---

That's the good news. The bad news is that a vast majority of humans aren't very good at those things, either... so now what are they all going to do?

---

Who knows? That is a big problem.

Which is why I say, you cannot be successful in America just by working hard. You will be eaten up alive and your job sent to China by some greedy corp honcho.

Instead, be an investor. Buy index funds and sit on your ass. Make money.

Sad but true. You can make more money by sitting on your ass in America today than by working hard.

Fightin_Aggie said:

---

Human Resources is a dehumanizing organization to begin with. Businesses don't have Human Resources.

They have Personnel, change it back to the personal department and maybe these tools can get their jobs back. Otherwise they are nothing more than robots to begin with

---

Experts Say AI Unlikely To Replace Government Bureaucrats As It's Not Soulless Enough https://t.co/TO2OKCJ5FD pic.twitter.com/8q6gq4q5VR

— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) May 24, 2025

Phatbob said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Another article likely the same old story.

Company sees revenues drop.
Instead of announcing cost cutting measures to maintain profitability, company announces "AI breakthrough" allowing for headcount reductions (non contractor headcount).

AI is this great unknown nebulous that is hard to question. But it has this magical implied value that can be anything a ceo needs it to be.

Rinse. Repeat.

We are going to call the next bubble popping to be the AI bubble.

---

Except AI is doing the popping. AI is no fad just like the internet wasn't. Sure, AI is a buzzword right now, but there is no bubble to pop when it comes to process changes that are happening because of this.

Think of it this way - are the jobs that AI displaced coming back? Not in the same way, because there is no reason for them to exist now.

---

The bubble to pop is that all these companies are looking at bad news. Instead of announcing bad news they instead enough AI and the bad news suddenly becomes efficiencies gained.

I remember when an employer pushed all of these automation steps. They bragged about how they saved thousands of man hours in accounting.
Then the automated process failed and cost the company millions and millions and all automated processes had to go through reapproval.

It works. Until it doesn't. AI is a non-resilient system. Non resilient systems dont last long.

infinity ag said:

---

YouBet said:

---

I'm at an inflection point in my career that the vast majority of my job should be using AI. As in, I should be operating in it for several hours per day. I'm currently not because (1) I just haven't stopped down to fully make the transition, and (2) I'm not sure I even want to.

I will say in the Product and IT space if you aren't using IT you are Endangered and will quickly become Extinct if you don't lean hard into it.

---

I think you meant "using AI".

So what does using AI mean to you? Just using ChatGPT and the like? Or doing things like writing code for models and training them?

---

Yes, I meant AI. Typo.

Both. It's all about the prompt. Once you master that you can gain massive productivity with your product and IT teams.

And there are simple use cases like using an AI Meeting tool to record the conversation between Product and Engineering. You then use the AI output from that meeting as your product spec and run with it from there with prompts to finalize it. You can use AI to ask questions from the doc itself to continue massaging it.

Removes alot of back and forth and traditional process time burners.

There is absolutely going to be fewer heads needed once people master how to use AI in their day to day job. It's not a panacea like some say it is, but it will absolutely preclude the need for headcount you otherwise would have hired. What that number depends on your own situation and use case.

texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Another article likely the same old story.

Company sees revenues drop.
Instead of announcing cost cutting measures to maintain profitability, company announces "AI breakthrough" allowing for headcount reductions (non contractor headcount).

AI is this great unknown nebulous that is hard to question. But it has this magical implied value that can be anything a ceo needs it to be.

Rinse. Repeat.

We are going to call the next bubble popping to be the AI bubble.

---

Except AI is doing the popping. AI is no fad just like the internet wasn't. Sure, AI is a buzzword right now, but there is no bubble to pop when it comes to process changes that are happening because of this.

Think of it this way - are the jobs that AI displaced coming back? Not in the same way, because there is no reason for them to exist now.

---

The bubble to pop is that all these companies are looking at bad news. Instead of announcing bad news they instead enough AI and the bad news suddenly becomes efficiencies gained.

I remember when an employer pushed all of these automation steps. They bragged about how they saved thousands of man hours in accounting.
Then the automated process failed and cost the company millions and millions and all automated processes had to go through reapproval.

It works. Until it doesn't. AI is a non-resilirnt system. Non resilient systems dont last long.

---

It's non-resilliant in the same way a website can be non-resillient. Sure, a version of it might be poorly done, but your business is not going to be without it, at least not for long, and the next version will be better unless the company leadership is poor and doesn't learn from past mistakes.

Phatbob said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Phatbob said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Another article likely the same old story.

Company sees revenues drop.
Instead of announcing cost cutting measures to maintain profitability, company announces "AI breakthrough" allowing for headcount reductions (non contractor headcount).

AI is this great unknown nebulous that is hard to question. But it has this magical implied value that can be anything a ceo needs it to be.

Rinse. Repeat.

We are going to call the next bubble popping to be the AI bubble.

---

Except AI is doing the popping. AI is no fad just like the internet wasn't. Sure, AI is a buzzword right now, but there is no bubble to pop when it comes to process changes that are happening because of this.

Think of it this way - are the jobs that AI displaced coming back? Not in the same way, because there is no reason for them to exist now.

---

The bubble to pop is that all these companies are looking at bad news. Instead of announcing bad news they instead enough AI and the bad news suddenly becomes efficiencies gained.

I remember when an employer pushed all of these automation steps. They bragged about how they saved thousands of man hours in accounting.
Then the automated process failed and cost the company millions and millions and all automated processes had to go through reapproval.

It works. Until it doesn't. AI is a non-resilirnt system. Non resilient systems dont last long.

---

It's non-resilliant in the same way a website can be non-resillient. Sure, a version of it might be poorly done, but your business is not going to be without it, at least not for long, and the next version will be better unless the company leadership is poor and doesn't learn from past mistakes.

---

No idea what he even means by "non resilient". If he's talking about bugs, that happens with every piece of software and has since software began.

Non-resilient means there isnt a good backup plan or easy pivot option.

If you go lean because AI cuts work 70% you are good. If that process breaks, then you are in a world of hurt. Generally Ai fixes will take time, require code review and also future scoping impacts. Without the latter the future bugs will become more frequent and likely more challenging.

texagbeliever said:

---

Non-resilient means there isnt a good backup plan or easy pivot option.

If you go lean because AI cuts work 70% you are good. If that process breaks, then you are in a world of hurt. Generally Ai fixes will take time, require code review and also future scoping impacts. Without the latter the future bugs will become more frequent and likely more challenging.

---

That's no different than replacing humans with software/automation in general. For example, if the DCS goes down in a chemical plant, the plant is down. No chemicals are being made without that software. There is no backup. The backup is "get the computer fixed"!

The man has a point:

I'm not an expert, but I feel like I'm not super worried about AI taking white-collar jobs, because I feel like around 80% of white collar jobs are fake work anyways, and it's hard for AI to replace the role of a worker that does nothing

— alz (@alz_zyd_) May 28, 2025