twk said:
nortex97 said:
twk said:
nortex97 said:
twk said:
nortex97 said:
Ok, so the simple answer is both trade and that Mexico-China-Canada take action against the gangs/fentanyl trade.
That seems…uncontroversial on its face as a demand.
Everyone in the US wants to shut down that trade, as do most people in Mexico and Canada. The real question is, does this tariff do much to advance that goal, because there certainly will be a cost. Time will tell.
It's got their populaces in a bit of a tizzy, to say nothing of their politicians. We will see, indeed. The Chinese have used fentanyl as some sort of latter-day revenge for the opium wars (an older piece) from what I have read/watched/heard, and really that is the party in interest that needs to be reckoned with.
If the Chinese shut it down…things change quickly.
Yes, Trump has managed to take the Liberals from down 26 in the polls to ahead by 2. It's certainly gotten people's attention, but not necessarily in a good way.
I don't care about their polls/elections. Their charlatans will either bend the knee or collapse their economy. Either way is fine. Had a conference call with a Canadian yesterday for work. Dude was straight up rattled. Made me laugh.
You don't care if Canada has a woke idiot like Trudeau, or someone willing to end all the green nonsense like Poilievre? That's some deep strategic thinking right there.
I'd much rather Canada have Poilevre but that's their choice in the end. If they want to commit suicide there is only so much you can do.
If they pursue that path their country will literally split and fall apart at some point because the only way the Liberals plan works there is for Alberta and Sakatchewan to have to follow policies that make their lives hell while simultaneously losing their freedoms and all of their money being sent East. In a country where a Province can secede with a simple majority vote that's not sustainable.
Right now a lot of what is happening in Canada and around the world is shock. They are unaccustomed to the US being so openly brash and making it clear that our priorities come first because we have the cards. They need our economy far more than we need theirs. They need our military protection. We need very little from anyone else and the few things we do need Trump is very focused on securing or developing here in the US. In every one of these negotiations Canada can find a few ways to cause some short term minor pain to us but we can absolutely devastate them. It's like one of those slapping competitions where you have a scrawny dude who slaps the guy who looks like a brick house and it barely moves his skin and then the big dude knocks the scrawny dude unconscious.
Canada simply cannot sustain a trade war with us. It's absolutely devastating to them as everything they do is so dependent on the US in order to prosper. They can certainly survive but they are not remotely self sustaining. Remember that Canada has an economy smaller than Texas.
Part of this is messaging too. Trump is going to make examples out of a few countries and humiliate them. That sends a message to others that they don't want to be next on the list and realize that it's a lot better not to poke the bear. Trump also will always offer an out and a way to be a friend rather than a foe. Trump has his flaws but anyone who can't see how well he handled trade and foreign policy the first time that now thinks by employing the same tactics on steroids this time will lead to disaster isn't paying attention. The bold moves and unconventional and sometimes unpredictable behavior is part of the plan and it works.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan