Quote:

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Atlanta Fed predicts negative 1.5 percent GDP growth in first quarter

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy.

The projection is a significant shift for the Atlanta Fed over the last few weeks that comes a little more than a month after President Trump took office.

The Atlanta Fed last week was predicting 2.3 percent positive growth for the first quarter. A month ago, it was registering 3.9 percent growth.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow measure is not an official forecast but rather a running estimate of real GDP growth based on data as it comes in.

The first quarter ends at the end of March, and GDP will be officially calculated by the Commerce Department.
But the forward-looking indicator's major drop will still be of significant concern to policymakers, economists and markets alike, especially as fourth-quarter GDP registered a strong second estimate this week.



https://thehill.com/business/5169308-atlanta-fed-gdp-contraction/

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[url=https://thehill.com/business/5169308-atlanta-fed-gdp-contraction/][/url]

Holy smokes.
The Atlanta Fed just cut the Q1 GDP guess again!
Back on Friday, he cut from +2.3% to -1.5%.
Today, he's cut from -1.5% to -2.8%.
And it's not simply about potential tariffs effecting import/export data.
Stagflation is here and rate cuts and QE are coming. pic.twitter.com/fLNSptTm75

— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) March 3, 2025

Brace for impact folks.


We all knew the prior admin was cooking the books and changing the definition to avoid the dreaded R word. Now that there's a new admin, the truth is finally going to get reported and it ain't pretty.


Global tariffs, infighting with our EU "allies", a housing marketing in the ****ter, bubbles everywhere starting to pop, etc. Needless to say, things are definitely going to be exciting this year......

Obviously not all will be Trump's fault as we've needed a correction for years. Fed propped us up for so long, including under his first administration; however his anti-free market policies will accelerate our issues.

They literally changed the definition of a recession just so Biden wouldn't have one under his watch.

OMG GDP is falling, spend more government money! It's the end times!

How about no. How about cut government spending and worry about wage growth for legal US residents.

Anecdotally and from the perspective of my business - we've been on slowing trend since about Oct 2023.

Upstream oil & gas equipment manufacturer.

Labor cost increases have flattened and we're back in the driver seat on those. I would say that's another negative indicator as far as economic strength goes.

Interests rates haven't bothered much and wouldn't as we self-finance.

Going to be the short-term impact of cutting government and the trade war.

GDP is made up of

Consumption
Business Investment
Government spending
Net exports

One of those is being cut. Another is extremely uncertain.

Maybe a dumb question here, but are government jobs part of the GDP calculation? I seem to recall hearing that once upon a time. If we are trimming the fat of government employment, will that not show a drop in GDP? Seems like that would not be an al bad thing...

Agwinner03 said:

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Maybe a dumb question here, but are government jobs part of the GDP calculation? I seem to recall hearing that once upon a time. If we are trimming the fat of government employment, will that not show a drop in GDP? Seems like that would not be an al bad thing...

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See above

And the cooking of the books continues............

Good, we've needed a shakeup to clear the dead wood and get prices under control for years now.

Recessions are corrections to past mistakes. Not current ones.

Decay said:

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They literally changed the definition of a recession just so Biden wouldn't have one under his watch.

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I am completely fine with the Trump admin doing the exact same thing. GDP is terrible overall economic health indicator.



The thing that should get people a little concerned is the massive change from +2.3% to -2.8%. Thats a pretty sizable downgrade in a short period of time without a severe crisis (ie. 9/11 or Covid lockdown).

Knock it down then Build back better. Wasn't that the liberalcrats slogan.

Krombopulos Michael said:

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Quote:

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Atlanta Fed predicts negative 1.5 percent GDP growth in first quarter

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy.

The projection is a significant shift for the Atlanta Fed over the last few weeks that comes a little more than a month after President Trump took office.

The Atlanta Fed last week was predicting 2.3 percent positive growth for the first quarter. A month ago, it was registering 3.9 percent growth.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow measure is not an official forecast but rather a running estimate of real GDP growth based on data as it comes in.

The first quarter ends at the end of March, and GDP will be officially calculated by the Commerce Department.
But the forward-looking indicator's major drop will still be of significant concern to policymakers, economists and markets alike, especially as fourth-quarter GDP registered a strong second estimate this week.

---

[url=https://thehill.com/business/5169308-atlanta-fed-gdp-contraction/][/url]
Brace for impact folks.

We all knew the prior admin was cooking the books and changing the definition to avoid the dreaded R word. Now that there's a new admin, the truth is finally going to get reported and it ain't pretty.

Global tariffs, infighting with our EU "allies", a housing marketing in the ****ter, bubbles everywhere starting to pop, etc. Needless to say, things are definitely going to be exciting this year......

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Yep, Biden's insane spending led to a debt of $36T which anybody that knows anything about eco is the elephant in the room. Trump likely knows a recession is likely. Best to get it over early in his term. Kinda like what Reagan had to do to clean up Carters mess. Yep its going to get ugly and will last several years.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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Going to be the short-term impact of cutting government and the trade war.

GDP is made up of

Consumption
Business Investment
Government spending
Net exports

One of those is being cut. Another is extremely uncertain.

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Well that happens when the gov spends magic dollars from the magic expansion of the money supply. The printers go brrrrrr. Then the eco goes into the crapper. Biden Admin used debt to fuel a fake expansion with gov spending. Now gravity will take over.

Decay said:

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They literally changed the definition of a recession just so Biden wouldn't have one under his watch.

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yeah that was shameless gaslighting from the biden admin. that said, under the normal definition (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) biden's recession was over after two quarters.

the trump admin are already signaling their own strategy to change definitions by removing government spending from GDP calculations. expect to see this talking point a lot should these GDP forecasts hold.

The Fed decided to start telling the truth? Oh my! I wonder what got them to stop lying non-stop?

Like gender, can't the definition of recession change.

Agwinner03 said:

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Maybe a dumb question here, but are government jobs part of the GDP calculation?

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Yes. Biden propped up the economic numbers by hiring lots of unnecessary employees for the federal government. As terrible as Bidenomics was for America, it was still all smoke and mirrors.

And idiots will blame this on Trump.

Old McDonald said:

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Decay said:

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They literally changed the definition of a recession just so Biden wouldn't have one under his watch.

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yeah that was shameless gaslighting from the biden admin. that said, under the normal definition (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) biden's recession was over after two quarters.

the trump admin are already signaling their own strategy to change definitions by removing government spending from GDP calculations. expect to see this talking point a lot should these GDP forecasts hold.

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Wait. I was told it wasn't a recession.

For the past four years I've heard that we're in a recession, so what's different now than in the past four years?

What makes this thread "official"?

*****........*****

Ellis Wyatt said:

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Wait. I was told it wasn't a recession.

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well, you were lied to

Cmon now. It's temporary supply chain induced. We will have a soft landing in two weeks.

Flattening the curve.

It's a repeat of Jimmy Carter disaster and Ronald Reagan trying to clean up the mess. Just change the names to Biden and Trump

Recessions don't start on a dime short of something like the Covid shutdown. The media and federal bureaucracy refused to acknowledge the Biden recession, and want to pretend now that it all just started since January 21st.

By the way, Biden was still President for almost a third of the first quarter of this year, so he would own at least some of it.

Crap like this is exactly why Harris lost the election. Their BS is so pervasive that you can smell it a mile away.

News flash.

WE ARE IN A RECESSION. WE HAVE BEEN FOR TWO PLUS YEARS.


Trump has to get us back on track.

Outside of government, all 4 of Biden's years felt like a recession.
This might be news to government workers though.

infinity ag said:

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News flash.

WE ARE IN A RECESSION. WE HAVE BEEN FOR TWO PLUS YEARS.


Trump has to get us back on track.

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this is the lesson from the last 5 years. you can change the definition of recessions and gdp and scream all day about how the indicators are all green, and none of it will matter as long as people feel the pinch in their pocketbooks. the dems failed to understand that and it cost them the election. will republicans learn from their mistakes?

infinity ag said:

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News flash.

WE ARE IN A RECESSION. WE HAVE BEEN FOR TWO PLUS YEARS.


Trump has to get us back on track.

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Exactly, he's the President we need to get us back on track. Biden administration used smoke and mirrors (changing the definition of recession, faking employment numbers etc.).

We need real economic progress.

Krombopulos Michael said:

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Decay said:

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They literally changed the definition of a recession just so Biden wouldn't have one under his watch.

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I am completely fine with the Trump admin doing the exact same thing. GDP is terrible overall economic health indicator.

The thing that should get people a little concerned is the massive change from +2.3% to -2.8%. Thats a pretty sizable downgrade in a short period of time without a severe crisis (ie. 9/11 or Covid lockdown).

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I am guessing that the Trump Admin has decided to start telling us the truth unlike what the Brandon Admin has been doing for 4 years. Also, Trump is turning off the money spigot that was keeping the economy afloat in printed money.

deddog said:

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Outside of government, all 4 of Biden's years felt like a recession.
This might be news to government workers though.

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Check company earnings in 2021 and then in 2024.

Check average wages in 2021 and then in 2024.

Compare to inflation.

The economy has been hard on many for a variety of reasons. But not in a 4 year recession.