Eliminatus said:

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Rossticus said:

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Smittyfubar said:

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YouBet said:

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The Sun said:

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YouBet said:

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Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

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So are we.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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I'm aware of all countries shooting down commercial airlines. Thank you.

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Russians seem like they're making it a habit. I remember this when I was a kid.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/korean-airlines-flight-shot-down-by-soviet-union

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And, let's not forget:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

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The Dutch Safety Board's final report on this incident is must watch/read if you are into accident investigations. We all are, right? Not just me?

It's as damning as can be and to my knowledge, Russia STILL denies it was them. Even when the smoking gun was very unique shaped shrapnel that can only come from an older BUK SAM missile was pulled from the actual body of one of the pilots.

It is the Russian MO to deny reality. I honestly say that pretty objectively, despite my admitted biases against the Russian state.

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This is from Ukrainian Intelligence this is the Buk that shot them down. There is another video of this Buk as it is heading back to Russia, where you can clearly see it is missing a missile !!!!

Pretty convincing evidence of a seat in the tail being safest.

Enviroag02 said:

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Pretty convincing evidence of a seat in the tail being safest.

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I'd rather take my chances.

NATO has called for a full investigation. As a matter of course really I think. Kazakhs and Azerbaijanis cooperating.

Some further details have also come out. The airport it crashed out was not the closest. A Russian one was closer but was closed at the time, per Russia. Social media says they refused the pilot of aircraft even after declaring an emergency. Haven't been able to verify that one though. Black box has been recovered.

I don't think there is going to be much mystery in this incident. They'll identify quickly what happened to bring it down. The big question and political mess is who is going to be held at fault. Because bird strike does seem to be less likely with every update I have seen so far.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nato-calls-full-investigation-azerbaijan-airlines-crash-2024-12-26/

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/passenger-plane-crashes-kazakhstan-emergencies-ministry-says-2024-12-25/

FobTies said:

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The final moments of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane before its crash in Kazakhstan were captured by a passenger onboard.

Aftermath also included in the footage. pic.twitter.com/nCRozjdoUY

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 25, 2024

It was an Embraer 190, not a Boeing

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The passenger filming is praying the Adhan.

He accepted he was going to die and was making his final peace. Pretty scary.

It is way past the time to isolate Russia and kick them out of the UN. It must be known that any country that does business of any kind with Russia will not do business with the rest of the world. Let the Russian people know that when they are ready to depose their current leaders and have free and fair and open elections then can have a seat at the table again.

I don't believe that will do much of anything at all

Who?mikejones! said:

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I don't believe that will do much of anything at all

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Perhaps but what we are currently doing is 100% not working. Out of curiosity what would you suggest?

I wonder if they brought anyone up into the cockpit to help like Al Hayes did. I cant imagine having to precisely and constantly run throttles up and down for 1.5 hours while having to work through dozens of other issues.

I don't know of anything that would work except removing putin which im not really on board with.

Let me edit: id be ecstatic to see putin removed, dead, forced out or otherwise....

I just don't support the usa physically doing it.

Eliminatus said:

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Kazakh officials are now saying 38 of 67 souls on board lost as of now. Horrible but also a miracle any survived at all. We won't know until the full report I am sure but it is likely the pilots and crew did an above and beyond job doing what they could to put it down safely.

ETA: Pilots were not among the survivors.

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That's amazing! I would not have guessed that after seeing the crash.

If the area was an active combat zone, why would any commercial traffic be routed through the airspace?

Did the tower (or whomever rerouted the flight) F-up? Did no one flag the airspace as a no flight zone? Is another countries equiv of the FAA to blame?

flakrat said:

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If the area was an active combat zone, why would any commercial traffic be routed through the airspace?

Did the tower (or whomever rerouted the flight) F-up? Did no one flag the airspace as a no flight zone? Is another countries equiv of the FAA to blame?

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It'll come out in the investigation I am sure. No one here will know the answers to those questions right now.

Haven't watched either youtube video on here yet, but I can make some educated guesses.

Plane flies to Grozny, takes a SAM in the tail and loses the hydraulics, which takes out the tail controls as well. Let's assume all flight controls are lost as a result.

The plane can still be flown using the thrust of the engines to maneuver, albeit badly. United in Sioux Falls is a case where this worked out ok, JAL 123 did not fare as well.

To turn, you manage it like a twin screw boat. More power on the opposite engine to turn the way you want to go. Sounds simple? Not so much. In any under wing engine aircraft, if you add power, the moment of the thrust will point the nose up some because the thrust vector is below the center of gravity of the plane itself, so if you add power to the right engine the right wing will start rising as the plane starts turning left. It's gets busy because every change of power causes a 3d move of some sort. That United managed to hit an airport at all was impressive, that they were lined up on a runway was even more so. It becomes a not stop ballet of moving throttles trying to find the setting that gets you what you want and changing anything means you start all over again. That includes hitting a bump in the air.

The E190 guys obviously figured out the cruise part of the flight, but were unable to relearn how to fly it with the gear down, that changes the center of gravity, and how the plane reacts to power changes after, at a time where the margin of error as you try to land increases significantly. Unfortunately they didn't make it, but nearly half survived.

If you want the best ride in a plane sit on the wing, want worst ride, sit in the back, BUT it's the best place to be in a crash. First Class, pay more for least survivability.

HTH

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He accepted he was going to die and was making his final peace. Pretty scary.

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The whole cabin was eerily calm.

High praise for old Texags that we have a poster assigned from the Internet Research Agency or similar.

TexasAggie_97 said:

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It is way past the time to isolate Russia and kick them out of the UN. It must be known that any country that does business of any kind with Russia will not do business with the rest of the world. Let the Russian people know that when they are ready to depose their current leaders and have free and fair and open elections then can have a seat at the table again.

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If you look at Russia's playbook for invading Ukraine (and the rumored now-scrapped invasion of Finland), it reads almost play-by-play like the excuses the Nazis used to start WWII.

The difference there is the Germans caught Europe with its pants down, whereas the modern Allies have effectively stymied Putin's plans to rebuild the Soviet Union.

BassCowboy33 said:

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TexasAggie_97 said:

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It is way past the time to isolate Russia and kick them out of the UN. It must be known that any country that does business of any kind with Russia will not do business with the rest of the world. Let the Russian people know that when they are ready to depose their current leaders and have free and fair and open elections then can have a seat at the table again.

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If you look at Russia's playbook for invading Ukraine (and the rumored now-scrapped invasion of Finland), it reads almost play-by-play like the excuses the Nazis used to start WWII.

The difference there is the Germans caught Europe with its pants down, whereas the modern Allies have effectively stymied Putin's plans to rebuild the Soviet Union.

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I was reading an article about Russian propaganda during the Winter War with Finland and it was eerie how similar the talking points were in the press from that time. "Oh they want you to feel bad for this supposed underdog but they dont want you to know how the Finns treat the ethnic Russians.." "the Finns are trying to subvert our politics so we will waste money on them.." "most Finnish people look forward to Soviet rule" on and on and on.

They've been subverting our society in some form or fashion since 1918.

john_football said:

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BassCowboy33 said:

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TexasAggie_97 said:

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It is way past the time to isolate Russia and kick them out of the UN. It must be known that any country that does business of any kind with Russia will not do business with the rest of the world. Let the Russian people know that when they are ready to depose their current leaders and have free and fair and open elections then can have a seat at the table again.

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If you look at Russia's playbook for invading Ukraine (and the rumored now-scrapped invasion of Finland), it reads almost play-by-play like the excuses the Nazis used to start WWII.

The difference there is the Germans caught Europe with its pants down, whereas the modern Allies have effectively stymied Putin's plans to rebuild the Soviet Union.

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I was reading an article about Russian propaganda during the Winter War with Finland and it was eerie how similar the talking points were in the press from that time. "Oh they want you to feel bad for this supposed underdog but they dont want you to know how the Finns treat the ethnic Russians.." "the Finns are trying to subvert our politics so we will waste money on them.." "most Finnish people look forward to Soviet rule" on and on and on.

They've been subverting our society in some form or fashion since 1918.

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It's for internal purposes more than anything. The average foreigner looks at it and goes WTF. But at home, that propaganda can be extremely effective in pacifying a populace.

someone has to be insane to fly an aircraft into Russia somewhat near 100 miles of the borders of Ukraine

More confirmation from aviation experts that the plane was likely downed by the Russian military.

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Citing assessments of footage of the crash, the damage to the aircraft, and recent military activity, aviation-security firm, Osprey Flight Solutions, said in an alert to airlines that the flight "was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system."

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https://www.wsj.com/world/dozens-feared-dead-in-crash-after-passenger-flight-diverts-from-russia-fb2cdf2c

Two biggest issues are that (a) Russians didn't close the airspace (to civilian traffic) while dealing with the drone strikes, and (b) Grozny had it diverted across the Caspian Sea after the Pantsir strike. The GPS jamming after the firing, and refusal to just have it divert to the nearest airfield (not across the Caspian) is pretty disgusting.

Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov stated that Russia must apologise for the attack on a civilian airliner using air defense systems over Chechnya. pic.twitter.com/7uReBver3n

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 26, 2024

The airline is saying the plane crashed due to "external interference".

torrid said:

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The airline is saying the plane crashed due to "external interference".

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"Rapid Unintentional Disassembly" due to "external interference"

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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on Sunday that the passenger plane that crashed in Kazakhstan killing 38 people had been damaged due to shooting from the ground in Russia, Azerbaijan state television reported.

Aliyev said he regretted that "some circles" in Russia had tried to hush up the truth about the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines planes by sowing false narratives about the causes of the crash.

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https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/azerbaijans-president-says-plane-that-crashed-was-shot-russia-2024-12-29/

Russia did it's best to cover up the shoot down as a bird strike but due to the preponderance of evidence in the public domain, they now have to fall back to admitting the plane was shot down by Russian defenses but blaming Ukraine for it. Putin issued an apology but did not take responsibility for the crash. It's likely the primary driver for the apology was because he had to save face with the Azerbaijani president or risk deteriorating relations.

The likely reason Russia did not close it's airspace during the drone attack is because they wanted to project strength to its populace i.e. they want to show everyone that everything is operating "business as usual" and Ukraine is not disrupting their daily lives. This is certainly an egregious example of Russian hubris and disregard for human life.