Hundreds of miles off course, on the wrong side of the Caspian Sea. Talk of bird strike or maybe even ran into a Ukrainian drone swarm.

Bullets??

BQ78 said:

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It did seem like that but there was obviously tail damage before the crash as well.

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Remember that crash also had tail damage although obviously not from an external issue. In that case of course the real damage was to the central hydraulic point.

I agree with you, seems to make sense.

Fire09 I think both engines were running until the crash, so it wasn't an uncontained engine failure in flight. It's most plausible the pilots had no idea they'd been shot at, imho, with the explosion and likely some 'dash lights' about damage at the rear of the plane.

Pretty damn impressive airmanship. RIP to all.

FobTies said:

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fc2112 said:

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If losing blades off an engine due to bird strike, those patterns can look regular.

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I guess we will find out if there was an engine failure. If not, then what puts holes in plane like that?

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It looks to me that all they had was engines. I don't know what the time was from event to impact but it doesn't matter if it was 1 hour or 5 minutes that cockpit was getting their ass kicked and they never gave up until space was taken from them. Looked like had they had another 100' they may have stuck the landing.

MouthBQ98 said:

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There has to be a reason they were filming it. A translation of the commentary would be very revealing. It looks like ground crew or airport workers if some kind. My guess is something went obviously wrong on either a takeoff or previous landing pass. Maybe a control surface issue the pilots were trying to compensate for.

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I work with someone from Russia. I'll ask him for cliff notes on the commentary.

Yep I'm just commenting based on reports of a bird strike and it being correlated with shrapnel in the tail. Unlikely imo. A lot of conflicting reporting but we've got survivors and a partially intact fuselage. Won't be long before they figure it out. RIP to all, what a tragedy.

Hmm false flag? Blame Russia, get more funding and leftist support?

Even the Russian media is saying it's almost 100% that the plane got hit by a Russian SAM. Their defense was Ukraine was doing a drone attack close by and it's the pilots fault for getting that close to an active war zone.

fire09 said:

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I'm not sure how sheared fan blades from a bird strike makes its way into the rear stabilator and tail with a wing mounted turbine, but I guess stranger things have happened.

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I didn't see that was the section of the aircraft. I've seen fuselage holes like that next to an engine.

bonfarr said:

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98Ag99Grad said:

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Attempted hijacking? Whoever was flying was all over the place so either someone under duress or someone not knowing how to fly? Just a wild guess

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I watched a narrated clip and they said the pilot put the plane in a dive to pick up air speed to try to maneuver a bit but they had no power in the end.

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As a former pilot, that's what it looked like to me.

P.U.T.U said:

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Even the Russian media is saying it's almost 100% that the plane got hit by a Russian SAM. Their defense was Ukraine was doing a drone attack close by and it's the pilots fault for getting that close to an active war zone.

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Link?

Who knows at this stage. Seems stupid for Russia to kill innocents and blame pilots. But maybe it's a flex for other Western aircraft to steer clear.

P.U.T.U said:

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Even the Russian media is saying it's almost 100% that the plane got hit by a Russian SAM. Their defense was Ukraine was doing a drone attack close by and it's the pilots fault for getting that close to an active war zone.

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That doesn't sound right to me. The Caspian Sea isn't close to the Ukraine/Russia border. What could be important enough out there to destroy by a drone swarm….and how would Ukraine pull that off?

CoachtobeNamed$$$ said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Even the Russian media is saying it's almost 100% that the plane got hit by a Russian SAM. Their defense was Ukraine was doing a drone attack close by and it's the pilots fault for getting that close to an active war zone.

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That doesn't sound right to me. The Caspian Sea isn't close to the Ukraine/Russia border. What could be important enough out there to destroy by a drone swarm….and how would Ukraine pull that off?

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But it probably does to the average Russian who believes whatever state media says. Standard Russian playbook when they **** up is to make something up and blame someone else.

Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

BREAKING:

It now turns out that Russia was shooting down Ukrainian suicide drones over Chechnya this morning when an Azeri passenger plane flying from Baku to Grozny (Chechnya) suffered damages mid-flight and later crashed in Kazakhstan during an emergency landing.

38 killed pic.twitter.com/EbrrcAhMyn

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 25, 2024

This Telegram post reporting a Ukrainian attack was posted at 8:28 am Grozny time. The aircraft sent a distress signal at 8:35 and reported a "control system failure".

This, in addition to the shrapnel damage, points towards the aircraft being brought down by air defence. https://t.co/R0AHzWQgX5

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) December 25, 2024

YouBet said:

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Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

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So is Russia

So Ukraine has declared war on Chechnya now?

Very unlikely to be a coincidence that this plane crashed about the same time Russia was shooting down drones in the vicinity.

YouBet said:

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Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

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So are we.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

The Sun said:

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YouBet said:

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Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

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So are we.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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I'm aware of all countries shooting down commercial airlines. Thank you.

YouBet said:

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The Sun said:

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YouBet said:

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Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

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So are we.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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I'm aware of all countries shooting down commercial airlines. Thank you.

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Russians seem like they're making it a habit. I remember this when I was a kid.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/korean-airlines-flight-shot-down-by-soviet-union

FriscoKid said:

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/9. Video from the Embraer E190 cabin during the flight before the crash.

A pool of blood and a punctured fuselage of the plane are visible pic.twitter.com/fBisORGCA0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 25, 2024

I had to fly to east Asia last year and had the option to fly through the Middle East or over eastern Russia. No chance was I taking the Russian option. Freaking morons in that country.

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I'm no physicist, but given the damage inside the cabin and bleeding passengers, put me in the "shot down" camp.

Looks like Ivan got trigger happy again.

Smittyfubar said:

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YouBet said:

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The Sun said:

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YouBet said:

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Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

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So are we.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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I'm aware of all countries shooting down commercial airlines. Thank you.

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Russians seem like they're making it a habit. I remember this when I was a kid.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/korean-airlines-flight-shot-down-by-soviet-union

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And, let's not forget:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

Like quitting smoking. The Russians just can't break the habit of shooting down civilian airlines.

This guy does a excellent job of making the case beside the shrapnel you can see but using the flight data and explaining the way it was flying and landed/crashed. He is an airline pilot., I wonder if they used a BUK again??

i'd be interested in knowing 'who' was on the plane

Rossticus said:

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Smittyfubar said:

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YouBet said:

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The Sun said:

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YouBet said:

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Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

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So are we.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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I'm aware of all countries shooting down commercial airlines. Thank you.

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Russians seem like they're making it a habit. I remember this when I was a kid.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/korean-airlines-flight-shot-down-by-soviet-union

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And, let's not forget:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

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The Dutch Safety Board's final report on this incident is must watch/read if you are into accident investigations. We all are, right? Not just me?

It's as damning as can be and to my knowledge, Russia STILL denies it was them. Even when the smoking gun was very unique shaped shrapnel that can only come from an older BUK SAM missile was pulled from the actual body of one of the pilots.

It is the Russian MO to deny reality. I honestly say that pretty objectively, despite my admitted biases against the Russian state.

Smittyfubar said:

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YouBet said:

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The Sun said:

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YouBet said:

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Maybe it was Iran. They are known for shooting down commercial airlines.

---

So are we.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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I'm aware of all countries shooting down commercial airlines. Thank you.

---

Russians seem like they're making it a habit. I remember this when I was a kid.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/korean-airlines-flight-shot-down-by-soviet-union

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They denied shooting down KAL at first. They are commies they lie, it is what they do, but Japanese Intelligence had recorded the whole exchange between the Soviet pilot and his controller !!

Starts at 1:25 and at 9:59 the Soviet pilot announces he destroyed the target !!!!