SIAP

This is a full length video of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan. What the hell happened? pic.twitter.com/7CL6SwMne8

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) December 25, 2024

what went wrong here?

Azerbaijan Airlines has cancelled all flights to Chechnya and Dagestan after its plane crashed near Aktau https://t.co/8lEYcG2ogF pic.twitter.com/OIm97llDWK

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) December 25, 2024

Looks like it got shot down

What they are filming looks a LOT like damage from a missile proximity hit to the tail, with holes neatly punched through the tail surface. Maybe a MANPADS.

Awful way to go.

Attempted hijacking? Whoever was flying was all over the place so either someone under duress or someone not knowing how to fly? Just a wild guess

MouthBQ98 said:

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What they are filming looks a LOT like damage from a missile proximity hit to the tail, with holes neatly punched through the tail surface. Maybe a MANPADS.

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I mean, I'm no expert of course but it would take some convincing evidence to disprove that that is NOT shrapnel in that tail to me. Small too as you say, so MANPADS makes sense to me just from first view.

Damage to stabilizers maybe to account for flight pattern there at the end if indeed it was a SAM of some sorts?

It seemed, to me, that the pilot was trying to land it as best he/she could. The landing, while without landing gear out, didn't seem like it would cause the plane to explode. Strange.

No Spin Ag said:

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It seemed, to me, that the pilot was trying to land it as best he/she could. The landing, while without landing gear out, didn't seem like it would cause the plane to explode. Strange.

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He had it leveled out the entire time until he started descent. At that point, he lost control. His right wing hit first so that always going to be a pretty catastrophic outcome.

The final moments of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane before its crash in Kazakhstan were captured by a passenger onboard.

Aftermath also included in the footage. pic.twitter.com/nCRozjdoUY

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 25, 2024

It was an Embraer 190, not a Boeing

It's an EMB-190. The tail damage could be shrapnel from an explosion, or from the engines disintegrating quickly in the crash. Apparently an effort to distribute weight after an 'explosion' and it was controllable enough to divert a few hundred miles (notice oxygen masks down/panels damaged before crash). Probable loss of hydraulics that got worse though, makes me think/swag it couldn't have been 'just' a bird strike. (Caution, pretty horrific.)

Apparently the pilots reported a bird strike but I have no idea. From a.net:

Quote:

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The final flightpath is very reminiscent of JAL123, seemingly random wide sweeping turns as if they're trying to control the aircraft with differential engine power alone. Putting this together with the pictures of the tail section it has become very clear that they were shot down and lost some or all tail control. Heroic acts by the flight crew that people made it out alive from this. R.I.P.

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Edit; poster above put the x post up so I deleted.

Wow. So incredibly sad.

Once again, pays off to be in the tail section.

Sully wasn't flying that one for sure

Sort of looks like United 232 crash in Sioux City after they lost hydraulics. Not saying that is what happened but similar proposing and loss of stability.

It's ai, don't believe anything on the internet.

[That may have been funny in your head but it was not funny on this thread. -Staff]

DrEvazanPhD said:

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Was it a 737 max?

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The issue with the Max8 was iterative. Larger engines created more torque so the software would compensate to keep the nose level. When they increased the compensation they didn't add sensor redundancy which caused a condition where lesser pilots failed to safely work through the step action (one crew got it but had failed to throttle back and by the time they got back to flying were just going too steep too fast).

This looks like they're fighting a system failure - but it's not the Max8 software one.

It did seem like that but there was obviously tail damage before the crash as well.

98Ag99Grad said:

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Attempted hijacking? Whoever was flying was all over the place so either someone under duress or someone not knowing how to fly? Just a wild guess

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I watched a narrated clip and they said the pilot put the plane in a dive to pick up air speed to try to maneuver a bit but they had no power in the end.

Some sluggish controls, likely hydraulics and maintenance related.

Source: stayed at a holiday inn last night

Kansas Kid said:

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Sort of looks like United 232 crash in Sioux City after they lost hydraulics. Not saying that is what happened but similar proposing and loss of stability.

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Good analogy, reminds me very much of that. To my untrained eye it really looks like they were trying to land the plane with limited flight controls.

Looks like obvious shrapnel damage...

https://bsky.app/profile/archer83able.bsky.social/post/3le5el4udi22u

Edit: just realized this is a bluesky link. Was focused on content and not platform. :/

Looks pretty uniform.

torrid said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Sort of looks like United 232 crash in Sioux City after they lost hydraulics. Not saying that is what happened but similar proposing and loss of stability.

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Good analogy, reminds me very much of that. To my untrained eye it really looks like they were trying to land the plane with limited flight controls.

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Or the DHL into Bagdad. Phugoid pattern trying to land without hardly any control. 20+ survivors due to those pilots fighting that plane all the way to their last heart beat.

If losing blades off an engine due to bird strike, those patterns can look regular.

Was this after takeoff or during landing?
Abnormal pitching of the airplane up down could be runaway trim. Elevator malfunction.
NVM. Just saw the shrapnel posts.

nortex97 said:

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It's an EMB-190. The tail damage could be shrapnel from an explosion, or from the engines disintegrating quickly in the crash. Apparently an effort to distribute weight after an 'explosion' and it was controllable enough to divert a few hundred miles (notice oxygen masks down/panels damaged before crash). Probable loss of hydraulics that got worse though, makes me think/swag it couldn't have been 'just' a bird strike. (Caution, pretty horrific.)

Apparently the pilots reported a bird strike but I have no idea. From a.net:

Quote:

---

The final flightpath is very reminiscent of JAL123, seemingly random wide sweeping turns as if they're trying to control the aircraft with differential engine power alone. Putting this together with the pictures of the tail section it has become very clear that they were shot down and lost some or all tail control. Heroic acts by the flight crew that people made it out alive from this. R.I.P.

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Edit; poster above put the x post up so I deleted.

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Maybe they mistook missile strike for bird strike. Only a couple of the masks dropped so either dropped by violent occurrence or there was a failure in their deployment which is supposed to be triggered by loss of cabin pressure but the FAs should have directed them to manually open the stowage and the ones that did deploy do not look used.

I'm not sure how sheared fan blades from a bird strike makes its way into the rear stabilator and tail with a wing mounted turbine, but I guess stranger things have happened.

fc2112 said:

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If losing blades off an engine due to bird strike, those patterns can look regular.

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I guess we will find out if there was an engine failure. If not, then what puts holes in plane like that?